Wikipedia

2010 Victorian state election

The2010 Victorian state election,held on Saturday, 27 November 2010, was for the 57thParliament of Victoria.The election was to elect all 88 members of theLegislative Assemblyand all 40 members of theLegislative Council.The incumbentcentre-leftLabor Partygovernment, led byJohn Brumby,was defeated by thecentre-rightLiberal/NationalCoalitionopposition, led byTed Baillieu.The election gave the Coalition a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament.

2010 Victorian state election
←2006 27 November 2010 2014→
All 88 seats in theVictorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seatsin theVictorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party
Leader Ted Baillieu John Brumby
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 8 May 2006 30 July 2007
Leader's seat Hawthorn Broadmeadows
Last election 32 seats 55 seats
Seats won 45 seats 43 seats
Seat change Increase13 Decrease12
Popular vote 1,417,146 1,147,348
Percentage 44.78% 36.25%
Swing Increase5.17 Decrease6.81
TPP 51.58% 48.42%
TPP swing Increase5.96 Decrease5.96
Results in each electorate.
Premierbefore election

John Brumby
Labor

Premierafter election

Ted Baillieu
Liberal/National coalition

Voting iscompulsoryin Victoria. Elections for theLegislative Assemblyuseinstant-runoff voting(called preferential voting in Australia) insingle-member electorates(called districts). Elections for theLegislative Counciluse partialproportional representation,usingsingle transferable vote(also called preferential voting) in multi-member electorates (called regions). Members of the Legislative Council are elected from eight electoral regions each returning five members, making the quota for election in each region 16.67 percent of valid votes cast in that region. The election was conducted by theVictorian Electoral Commission(VEC).

Background

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See also:Results and maps of the 2006 Victorian state electionandPost-election pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election

At the1999 election,the Labor Party led bySteve Brackswas able to form aminority governmentwith the parliamentary support of 3 Independents, displacing the incumbentJeff KennettLiberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with amajority governmentafter a landslide win at the2002 election.Labor was elected for a third term at the2006 electionwith a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, a decrease of 7, and 54.4% of thetwo-party preferredvote, a decrease of 3.4%. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.

Political changes

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The previous elections took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. At the2006 election,theLabor Partywon 55 of the 88 seats, theLiberal Partywon 23, theNational Partywon 9, and there was 1 Independent. Since that date a number of political changes took place.

Both Premier Bracks andDeputy PremierJohn Thwaitesresigned on 27 July 2007.

By-elections

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Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, fourby-electionstook place. In Bracks' seat ofWilliamstownand Thwaites' seat ofAlbert Parkin 2007, former ministerAndre Haermeyer's seat ofKororoitin 2008, and former ministerLynne Kosky's seat ofAltonain 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MPCraig Langdonresigned from his seat ofIvanhoein August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.[1]

Campaign

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See also:Candidates of the 2010 Victorian state election
Adam Bandt,Brian WaltersandBob Brownof theGreensduring the election campaign

The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as aCoalition,which they had not done since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000.[2]The Liberal Party departed from tradition and gave their preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, thereby decreasing the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor.[3]

The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at theMelbourne Convention and Exhibition Centrein theelectoral district of Melbourne,with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in theelectoral district of Bendigo East,using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".

Issues

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The Coalition campaigned heavily against the Brumby Government's newMykiticketing system, which had been delivered at triple the projected cost and years behind schedule, as well as its construction of an expensivedesalination plantthat many claimed was unnecessary.[4][5]Other issues included health, education, and law and order. Ted Baillieu promised to restore the budget to surplus, employ more nurses and police, make Victorian teachers the highest paid in the country, and abolishsuspended sentenceswhich were seen as out of touch with community standards.

Retiring MPs

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Labor

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Liberal

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National

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Results

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Legislative Assembly

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See also:Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Victorian state election
See also:Results of the 2010 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly)
Government(45)
Coalition
Liberal(35)
National(10)

Opposition(43)
Labor(43)
Lower house seat outcome of the Victorian 2010 election


PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal1,203,65438.033.593512
Labor1,147,34836.256.814312
Greens354,69711.211.170
Nationals213,4926.751.58101
Independents82,3952.600.3101
Family First72,3542.292.000
Country Alliance42,9381.361.360
Democratic Labour28,1760.890.890
Sex Party17,2520.55New0New
Socialist Alliance1,7870.060.020
Christian Democrats6360.020.020
Total3,164,729100.00–88–
Valid votes3,164,72995.04
Invalid/blank votes165,1344.960.40
Total votes3,329,863100.00–
Registered voters/turnout3,582,23292.950.23
Two-party-preferred
Liberal/National1,633,31251.585.97
Labor1,533,22548.425.97
Total3,166,537100.00–


Labor suffered a swing of 5.96 percent, a larger swing than the1992 landslidethat brought theJeff Kennett-led Coalition to power.[6]However, much of that swing was wasted on landslide victories in the Coalition's heartland. As a result, the Coalition only just managed the 13-seat swing it needed to make Baillieu premier, netting it a bare majority of two seats.

On 29 November, with the result beyond doubt, Brumby conceded defeat. He resigned as state Labor leader the next day. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010,[7]and former Health MinisterDaniel Andrewswas elected Labor leader on 3 December.[8]

Legislative Council

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See also:Results of the 2010 Victorian state election (Legislative Council)
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Labor1,137,46135.366.09163
Liberal(metropolitan)792,70224.653.35123
Liberal/National(joint ticket)595,33018.510.83––
Liberal(country)6
National31
Greens386,17212.011.433
Family First91,9822.860.990
Democratic Labour75,0802.330.3601
Sex Party61,5421.91New0New
Country Alliance53,1491.651.200
Christian Democrats12,3220.380.180
Independents10,6460.330
Total3,216,386100.00–40–
Valid votes3,216,38696.62
Invalid/blank votes112,4753.380.91
Total votes3,328,861100.00–
Registered voters/turnout3,582,23292.930.20

Legislative Council seats

In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.[9][10]

Seats changing hands

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Seat Pre-2010 Swing Post-2010
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bentleigh Labor Rob Hudson 6.3 -7.1 0.8 Elizabeth Miller Liberal
Burwood Labor Bob Stensholt 3.7 -9.6 5.9 Graham Watt Liberal
Carrum Labor Jenny Lindell 6.7 -8.7 2.0 Donna Bauer Liberal
Forest Hill Labor Kirstie Marshall 0.8 -3.9 3.2 Neil Angus Liberal
Frankston Labor Alistair Harkness 3.2 -5.3 2.1 Geoff Shaw Liberal
Gembrook Labor Tammy Lobato 0.7 -7.5 6.8 Brad Battin Liberal
Gippsland East Independent Craig Ingram 9.1 -21.1 12.0 Tim Bull National
Mitcham Labor Tony Robinson 2.0 -4.7 2.8 Dee Ryall Liberal
Mordialloc Labor Janice Munt 3.5 -5.6 2.1 Lorraine Wreford Liberal
Mount Waverley Labor Maxine Morand 0.3 -7.8 7.4 Michael Gidley Liberal
Prahran Labor Tony Lupton 3.6 -7.8 4.3 Clem Newton-Brown Liberal
Seymour Labor Ben Hardman 6.7 -7.9 1.2 Cindy McLeish Liberal
South Barwon Labor Michael Crutchfield 4.1 -6.2 3.9 Andrew Katos Liberal

In2006,the finalGippsland East2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals

Key dates

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Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in theElectoral Act 2002.[11]

Key dates for the election were:[12]

  • 2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and lodgement of election writs
  • 9 November: Close of rolls
  • 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
  • 12 November: Close of nominations for independents
  • 15 November: Early voting commences
  • 25 November: Close of postal voting
  • 26 November: Early voting closes
  • 27 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)

Polling

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Polling conducted byNewspolland published inThe Australianis performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas.Sampling sizesusually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declaredmargin of errorat ±3 percent.

Better Premier ratings^
Labor
Brumby 		Liberal
Baillieu
2010 election – –
23 – 25 Nov 2010 48% 38%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 50% 36%
Sep – Oct 2010 49% 31%
Jul – Aug 2010 52% 27%
May – Jun 2010 47% 31%
Mar – Apr 2010 49% 29%
Jan – Feb 2010 51% 29%
Nov – Dec 2009 54% 26%
Sep – Oct 2009 52% 27%
Jul – Aug 2009 52% 27%
May – Jun 2009 54% 21%
Jan – Feb 2009 54% 22%
Nov – Dec 2008 49% 27%
Sep – Oct 2008 45% 27%
Jul – Aug 2008 48% 26%
May – Jun 2008 51% 28%
Mar – Apr 2008 49% 23%
Jan – Feb 2008 48% 25%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 22%
Sep – Oct 2007 51% 25%
2006 election – –
22 – 23 Nov 2006 53%1 30%
Pollingconducted byNewspoll
and published inThe Australian.
1Steve Bracks.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
2010 election 36.3% 38.0% 6.7% 11.2% 7.8% 48.4% 51.6%
23 – 25 Nov 2010 33% 40% 5% 15% 7% 48.9% 51.1%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 37% 39% 5% 14% 5% 51% 49%
Sep – Oct 2010 35% 36% 4% 19% 6% 52% 48%
Jul – Aug 2010 38% 32% 4% 17% 9% 55% 45%
May – Jun 2010 34% 36% 4% 18% 8% 51% 49%
Mar – Apr 2010 37% 38% 3% 14% 8% 52% 48%
Jan – Feb 2010 39% 36% 3% 14% 8% 54% 46%
Nov – Dec 2009 41% 32% 3% 14% 10% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2009 43% 32% 3% 15% 7% 57% 43%
Jul – Aug 2009 43% 35% 2% 12% 8% 56% 44%
May – Jun 2009 42% 34% 3% 14% 7% 56% 44%
Jan – Feb 2009 46% 31% 2% 15% 6% 60% 40%
Nov – Dec 2008 45% 34% 3% 13% 5% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2008 37% 37% 4% 15% 7% 51% 49%
Jul – Aug 2008 41% 34% 4% 12% 9% 54% 46%
May – Jun 2008 41% 35% 3% 14% 7% 55% 45%
Mar – Apr 2008 44% 33% 3% 12% 8% 58% 42%
Jan – Feb 2008 43% 34% 3% 12% 8% 56% 44%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 31% 3% 9% 6% 60% 40%
Sep – Oct 2007 49% 36% 4% 6% 5% 56% 44%
2006 election 43.1% 34.4% 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 54.4% 45.6%
22 – 23 Nov 2006 45% 32% 5% 9% 9% 56% 44%
Pollingconducted byNewspolland published inThe Australian.

Sky Newsexit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.[13]

Newspaper endorsements

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Dailies Sundays
Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement
The Age Labor[14] The Sunday Age Labor[15]
The Australian Labor[16] The Weekend Australian
The Australian Financial Review Labor[17]
Herald Sun Labor[18] Sunday Herald Sun Labor[19]

References

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  1. ^Speaker decides against Ivanhoe by-election,ABC News,14 September 2010.
  2. ^Best, Catherine (11 February 2008)."Coalition reunites in Victoria".The Sydney Morning Herald.Retrieved14 March2010.
  3. ^"Greens still hopeful of winning seats".Abc.net.au. 2 October 1980.Retrieved1 February2012.
  4. ^Staff Writers (10 June 2015)."Myki system a failure, urgent action needed".GovNews.Retrieved27 February2020.
  5. ^"Operational Effectiveness of the myki Ticketing System"(PDF).
  6. ^Austin, Paul (16 December 2010)."The figures point to electoral wilderness for Victorian Labor".The Sydney Morning Herald.Fairfax Media.Retrieved2 September2011.
  7. ^"Baillieu sworn in as Premier".Abc.net.au.Retrieved1 February2012.
  8. ^5 Minutes 10 Minutes."Daniel Andrews new Victorian Labor leader".Theaustralian.com.au.Retrieved1 February2012.{{cite web}}:CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  9. ^"Upper house summary".ABC.Retrieved1 February2012.
  10. ^"Coalition wins Upper House majority".Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 14 December 2010.
  11. ^"Section 63, Electoral Act 2002".Retrieved6 September2010.
  12. ^"2010 Victorian state election information: VEC".Vec.vic.gov.au. 20 August 2010. Archived fromthe originalon 29 October 2010.Retrieved28 November2010.
  13. ^"'Swing is on' as voters turn against Labor: ABC News 27 November 2010 ".Abc.net.au.Retrieved28 November2010.
  14. ^"Leaders have delivered a choice between clear alternatives".Melbourne:The Age.26 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
  15. ^"Labor? Liberal? What difference would it make?".Melbourne:The Sunday Age.21 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
  16. ^"The compelling case for a vote against complacency".The Australian.26 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
  17. ^"Brumby earns another term".The Australian Financial Review.26 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
  18. ^"A tight contest between clones".Herald Sun.26 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
  19. ^"Victoria deserves strong leadership from next state government".Sunday Herald Sun.21 November 2010.Retrieved27 November2010.
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