Adroughtis a period of drier-than-normal conditions.[1]: 1157 A drought can last for days, months or years. Drought often has large impacts on theecosystemsandagricultureof affected regions, and causes harm to the localeconomy.[2][3]Annual dry seasons in thetropicssignificantly increase the chances of a drought developing, with subsequent increasedwildfirerisks.[4]Heat wavescan significantly worsen drought conditions by increasingevapotranspiration.[5]This dries out forests and other vegetation, and increases the amount of fuel for wildfires.[4][6]
Drought is a recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world, becoming more extreme and less predictable due toclimate change,whichdendrochronologicalstudies date back to 1900. There are three kinds of drought effects, environmental, economic and social. Environmental effects include the drying ofwetlands,more and larger wildfires,loss of biodiversity.
Economic impacts include disruption ofwater suppliesfor people, less agricultural productivity and therefore more expensive food production. Another impact is shortages of water forirrigationorhydropower.Social and health costs include the negative effect on the health of people directly exposed to this phenomenon (excessive heat waves), high food costs, stress caused by failed harvests,water scarcity,etc. Prolonged droughts have causedmass migrationsandhumanitarian crisis.[7][8]
Examples for regions with increased drought risks are theAmazon basin,Australia,theSahelregion andIndia.For example, in 2005, parts of theAmazon basinexperienced the worst drought in 100 years.[9][10]Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could become more frequent in the future, a government-commissioned report said on July 6, 2008.[11]The long AustralianMillennial droughtbroke in 2010. The2020–2022 Horn of Africa droughthas surpassed the horrific drought in 2010–2011 in both duration and severity.[12][13]More than 150 districts in India are drought vulnerable, mostly concentrated in the state of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and its adjoining Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, northern Karnataka and adjoining Maharashtra of the country.[14]
Throughout history, humans have usually viewed droughts asdisastersdue to the impact on food availability and the rest of society. People have viewed drought as anatural disasteror as something influenced byhuman activity,or as a result ofsupernaturalforces.
Definition
TheIPCC Sixth Assessment Reportdefines a drought simply as "drier than normal conditions".[1]: 1157 This means that a drought is "a moisture deficit relative to the average water availability at a given location and season".[1]: 1157
According toNational Integrated Drought Information System,a multi-agency partnership, drought is generally defined as "a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time (usually a season or more), resulting in a water shortage". The National Weather Service office of theNOAAdefines drought as "a deficiency of moisture that results in adverse impacts on people, animals, or vegetation over a sizeable area".[15]
Drought is a complex phenomenon − relating to the absence of water − which is difficult to monitor and define.[16]By the early 1980s, over 150 definitions of "drought" had already been published.[17]The range of definitions reflects differences in regions, needs, and disciplinary approaches.
Categories
There are three major categories of drought based on where in the water cycle the moisture deficit occurs: meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and agricultural or ecological drought.[1]: 1157 A meteorological drought occurs due to lack ofprecipitation.A hydrological drought is related to low runoff, streamflow, and reservoir storage. An agricultural or ecological drought is causing plant stress from a combination of evaporation and lowsoil moisture.[1]: 1157 Some organizations add another category: socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply.[16][17]The socioeconomic drought is a similar concept towater scarcity.
The different categories of droughts have different causes but similar effects:
- Meteorologicaldrought occurs when there is a prolonged time with less than average precipitation.[18]Meteorological drought usually precedes the other kinds of drought.[19]As a drought persists, the conditions surrounding it gradually worsen and its impact on the local population gradually increases.
- Hydrologicaldrought is brought about when the water reserves available in sources such asaquifers,lakesandreservoirsfall below alocally significantthreshold. Hydrological drought tends to show up more slowly because it involves stored water that is used but not replenished. Like an agricultural drought, this can be triggered by more than just a loss of rainfall. For instance, around 2007Kazakhstanwas awarded a large amount of money by theWorld Bankto restore water that had been diverted to other nations from theAral SeaunderSovietrule.[20]Similar circumstances also place their largest lake,Balkhash,at risk of completely drying out.[21]
- Agriculturalor ecological droughts affect crop production orecosystemsin general. This condition can also arise independently from any change in precipitation levels when either increasedirrigationorsoilconditions and erosion triggered by poorly planned agricultural endeavors cause a shortfall in water available to the crops.
Indices and monitoring
Several indices have been defined to quantify and monitor drought at different spatial and temporal scales. A key property of drought indices is their spatial comparability, and they must be statistically robust.[22]Drought indices include:[22]
- Palmer drought index(sometimes called the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)): a regional drought index commonly used for monitoring drought events and studying areal extent and severity of drought episodes.[23]The index uses precipitation and temperature data to study moisture supply and demand using a simple water balance model.[23][24][25]
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index:an index that is calculated based on rainfall, air temperature, and othermeteorologicalfactors.[26]
- Standardized precipitation index (SPI): It is computed based on precipitation, which makes it a simple and easy-to-apply indicator for monitoring and prediction of droughts in different parts of the world. TheWorld Meteorological Organizationrecommends this index for identifying and monitoring meteorological droughts in different climates and time periods.[22]
- Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI): a multiscalar drought index based on climatic data. The SPEI accounts also for the role of the increased atmosphericevaporative demandon drought severity.[22]Evaporative demand is particularly dominant during periods of precipitation deficit. The SPEI calculation requires long-term and high-quality precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand datasets. These can be obtained from ground stations or gridded data based on reanalysis as well as satellite and multi-source datasets.[22]
- Indices related to vegetation: root-zone soil moisture, vegetation condition index (VDI) and vegetation health index (VHI). The VCI and VHI are computed based on vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature datasets.[22]
- Deciles index
- Standardized runoff index
High-resolution drought information helps to better assess the spatial and temporal changes and variability in drought duration, severity, and magnitude at a much finer scale. This supports the development of site-specific adaptation measures.[22]
The application of multiple indices using different datasets helps to better manage and monitor droughts than using a single dataset, This is particularly the case in regions of the world where not enough data is available such as Africa and South America. Using a single dataset can be limiting, as it may not capture the full spectrum of drought characteristics and impacts.[22]
Careful monitoring of moisture levels can also help predict increased risk for wildfires.
Causes
General precipitation deficiency
Mechanisms of producing precipitation includeconvective,stratiform,[27]andorographicrainfall.[28]Convective processes involve strong vertical motions that can cause the overturning of the atmosphere in that location within an hour and cause heavy precipitation,[29]while stratiform processes involve weaker upward motions and less intense precipitation over a longer duration.[30]
Precipitation can be divided into three categories, based on whether it falls as liquid water, liquid water that freezes on contact with the surface, or ice.
Droughts occur mainly in areas where normal levels of rainfall are, in themselves, low. If these factors do not support precipitation volumes sufficiently to reach the surface over a sufficient time, the result is a drought. Drought can be triggered by a high level of reflected sunlight and above average prevalence of highpressure systems,windscarrying continental, rather than oceanic air masses, and ridges ofhigh pressure areasaloft can prevent or restrict the developing of thunderstorm activity or rainfall over one certain region. Once a region is within drought, feedback mechanisms such as local arid air,[31]hot conditions which can promote warm core ridging,[32]and minimal evapotranspiration can worsen drought conditions.
Dry season
Within the tropics, distinct,wetand dryseasonsemerge due to the movement of theIntertropical Convergence ZoneorMonsoon trough.[33]The dry season greatly increases drought occurrence,[34]and is characterized by its low humidity, with watering holes and rivers drying up. Because of the lack of these watering holes, many grazing animals are forced to migrate due to the lack of water in search of more fertile lands. Examples of such animals arezebras,elephants,andwildebeest.Because of the lack of water in the plants, bushfires are common.[35]Since water vapor becomes more energetic with increasing temperature, more water vapor is required to increase relative humidity values to 100% at higher temperatures (or to get the temperature to fall to the dew point).[36]Periods of warmth quicken the pace of fruit and vegetable production,[37]increase evaporation and transpiration from plants,[38]and worsen drought conditions.[39]
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
TheEl Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) phenomenon can sometimes play a significant role in drought. ENSO comprises two patterns of temperature anomalies in the centralPacific Ocean,known asLa NiñaandEl Niño.La Niña events are generally associated with drier and hotter conditions and further exacerbation of drought inCaliforniaand theSouthwestern United States,and to some extent theU.S. Southeast.Meteorological scientists have observed that La Niñas have become more frequent over time.[40]
Conversely, during El Niño events, drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of theAmazon RiverBasin,Colombia,andCentral America.Winters during the El Niño are warmer and drier than average conditions in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and northern Mideast United States, so those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Conditions are also drier than normal from December to February in south-central Africa, mainly inZambia,Zimbabwe,Mozambique,andBotswana.Direct effects of El Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts ofSoutheast AsiaandNorthern Australia,increasingbush fires,worseninghaze,and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier-than-normal conditions are also in general observed inQueensland,inlandVictoria,inlandNew South Wales,and easternTasmaniafrom June to August. As warm water spreads from the west Pacific and theIndian Oceanto the east Pacific, it causes extensive drought in the western Pacific. Singapore experienced the driest February in 2014 since records began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rain falling in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 °C on 26 February. The years 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[41]
Climate change
Globally, the occurrence of droughts has increased as a result of theincrease in temperatureand atmosphericevaporative demand.In addition, increasedclimate variabilityhas increased the frequency and severity of drought events. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of droughts are aggravated by anthropogenic activities such as land use change and water management and demand.[22]
TheIPCC Sixth Assessment Reportalso pointed out that "Warming over land drives an increase in atmospheric evaporative demand and in the severity of drought events"[43]: 1057 and "Increased atmospheric evaporative demand increases plant water stress, leading to agricultural and ecological drought".[44]: 578
There is a rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe that are concurrent with an increase in potentialevapotranspiration.[45]
Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increasesplant stress.Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[48]: 1157 These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[48]: 1157 Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[49]
Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[50]Land restorationcan help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this isagroforestry.[51]Erosion and human activities
Human activity can directly trigger exacerbating factors such as over-farming, excessiveirrigation,[52]deforestation,anderosionadversely impact the ability of the land to capture and hold water.[53]In arid climates, the main source of erosion is wind.[54]Erosion can be the result of material movement by the wind. The wind can cause small particles to be lifted and therefore moved to another region (deflation). Suspended particles within the wind may impact on solid objects causing erosion by abrasion (ecological succession). Wind erosion generally occurs in areas with little or no vegetation, often in areas where there is insufficient rainfall to support vegetation.[55]
Impacts
Drought is one of the most complex and majornatural hazards,and it has devastating impacts on the environment, economy, water resources, agriculture, and society worldwide.[22]
One can divide the impacts of droughts and water shortages into three groups: environmental, economic and social (including health).
Environmental and economic impacts
Environmental effects of droughts include: lower surface and subterranean water-levels, lower flow-levels (with a decrease below the minimum leading to direct danger for amphibian life), increasedpollution of surface water,the drying out ofwetlands,more and largerwildfires,higher deflation intensity,loss of biodiversity,worse health of trees and the appearance of pests and dendroid diseases.[56][6]
Economic losses as a result of droughts include lower agricultural, forests, game and fishing output, higher food-production costs, lower energy-production levels in hydro plants, losses caused by depleted water tourism and transport revenue, problems with water supply for theenergy sectorand for technological processes in metallurgy, mining, the chemical, paper, wood, foodstuff industries etc., disruption ofwater suppliesfor municipal economies.
Further examples of common environmental and economic consequences of drought include:
- Alteration ofdiversity of plant communities,which can have an impact on netprimary productionand otherecosystem services.[57]
- Wildfires,such asAustralian bushfiresandwildfires in the United States,become more common during times of drought and may cause human deaths.[58]
- Dust Bowls,themselves a sign oferosion,which further erode thelandscape
- Dust storms,when drought hits an area suffering from desertification anderosion
- Habitatdamage, affecting bothterrestrialandaquaticwildlife[59]
- Snakemigration, which results in snake-bites[60]
- Reducedelectricity productiondue to reduced water-flow throughhydroelectricdams[61]
- Shortages of water forindustrialusers[62][63]
Agricultural impacts
Droughts can cause land degradation and loss of soil moisture, resulting in the destruction of cropland productivity.[64]This can result in diminishedcrop growth or yield productionsandcarrying capacityforlivestock.Drought in combination with high levels of grazing pressure can function as the tipping point for an ecosystem, causingwoody encroachment.[65]
Water stress affects plant development and quality in a variety of ways: firstly drought can cause poor germination and impaired seedling development.[66]At the same time plant growth relies on cellular division, cell enlargement, and differentiation. Drought stress impairsmitosisand cell elongation via loss ofturgor pressurewhich results in poor growth.[67]Development of leaves is also dependent upon turgor pressure, concentration of nutrients, and carbon assimilates[clarification needed]all of which are reduced by drought conditions, thus drought stress lead to a decrease in leaf size and number.[67]Plant height, biomass, leaf size and stem girth has been shown to decrease in maize under water limiting conditions.[67]Crop yield is also negatively effected by drought stress, the reduction in crop yield results from a decrease in photosynthetic rate, changes in leaf development, and altered allocation of resources all due to drought stress.[67]Crop plants exposed to drought stress suffer from reductions in leaf water potential and transpiration rate.Water-use efficiencyincreases in crops such as wheat while decreasing in others, such as potatoes.[68][69][67]
Plants need water for the uptake of nutrients from the soil, and for the transport of nutrients throughout the plant: drought conditions limit these functions leading to stunted growth. Drought stress also causes a decrease in photosynthetic activity in plants due to the reduction of photosynthetic tissues, stomatal closure, and reduced performance of photosynthetic machinery. This reduction in photosynthetic activity contributes to the reduction in plant growth and yields.[67]Another factor influencing reduced plant growth and yields include the allocation of resources; following drought stress plants will allocate more resources to roots to aid in water uptake increasing root growth and reducing the growth of other plant parts while decreasing yields.[67]
Social and health impacts
The most negative impacts of drought for humans includecrop failure,food crisis,famine, malnutrition, andpoverty,which lead to loss of life andmass migrationof people.[22]
There are negative effects on the health of people who are directly exposed to this phenomenon (excessiveheat waves). Droughts can also cause limitations of water supplies, increased water pollution levels, high food-costs, stress caused by failed harvests,water scarcity,etc. Reduced water quality can occur because lower water-flows reduce dilution of pollutants and increasecontaminationof remaining water sources.[70][71]
This explains why droughts and water scarcity operate as a factor which increases the gap betweendevelopedanddeveloping countries.[72]
Effects vary according to vulnerability. For example, subsistence farmers are more likely to migrate during drought because they do not have alternative food-sources. Areas with populations that depend on water sources as a major food-source are more vulnerable to famine.
Further examples of social and health consequences include:
- Water scarcity,crop failure,famine[73]andhunger– drought provides too little water to support food crops;malnutrition,dehydrationand related diseases
- Mass migration,resulting ininternal displacementand internationalrefugees
- Socialunrest
- Warover natural resources, including water and food
- Cyanotoxinaccumulation within food chains and water supply (some of which are among the most potent toxins known to science) can cause cancer with low exposure over the long term.[74]High levels ofmicrocystinappeared inSan Francisco Bay Areasalt-water shellfish and fresh-water supplies throughout the state of California in 2016.
Loss of fertile soils
Wind erosionis much more severe in arid areas and during times of drought. For example, in theGreat Plains,it is estimated that soil loss due to wind erosion can be as much as 6100 times greater in drought years than in wet years.[75]
Loessis a homogeneous, typically nonstratified, porous,friable,slightly coherent, often calcareous, fine-grained,silty,pale yellow or buff, windblown (Aeolian)sediment.[76]It generally occurs as a widespread blanket deposit that covers areas of hundreds of square kilometers and tens of meters thick. Loess often stands in either steep or vertical faces.[77]Loess tends to develop into highly rich soils. Under appropriate climatic conditions, areas with loess are among the most agriculturally productive in the world.[78]Loess deposits are geologically unstable by nature, and will erode very readily. Therefore, windbreaks (such as big trees and bushes) are often planted by farmers to reduce the wind erosion of loess.[54]
Regions particularly affected
Amazon basin
In 2005, parts of theAmazon basinexperienced the worst drought in 100 years.[9][10]A 2006 article reported results showing that the forest in its present form could survive only three years of drought.[79][80]Scientists at the BrazilianNational Institute of Amazonian Researchargue in the article that this drought response, coupled with the effects ofdeforestationon regional climate, are pushing the rainforest towards a "tipping point"where it would irreversibly start to die. It concludes that therainforestis on the brink of being turned intosavannaordesert,with catastrophic consequences for the world's climate. According to theWWF,the combination ofclimate changeand deforestation increases the drying effect of dead trees that fuels forest fires.[81]
Australia
The 1997–2009Millennium Droughtin Australia led to a water supply crisis across much of the country. As a result, many desalination plants were built for the first time (see list).
By far the largest part ofAustraliaisdesertor semi-arid lands commonly known as theoutback.A 2005 study by Australian and American researchers investigated the desertification of the interior, and suggested that one explanation was related tohumansettlers who arrived about 50,000 years ago. Regular burning by these settlers could have preventedmonsoonsfrom reaching interior Australia.[82]In June 2008 it became known that an expert panel had warned of long term, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for the wholeMurray-Darling basinif it did not receive sufficient water by October 2008.[83]Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could become more frequent in the future, a government-commissioned report said on July 6, 2008.[11]Australian environmentalistTim Flannery,predicted that unless it made drastic changes,PerthinWestern Australiacould become the world's firstghost metropolis,an abandoned city with no more water to sustain its population.[84]The long AustralianMillennial droughtbroke in 2010.
East Africa and Sahel
Recurring droughts leading todesertificationinEast Africahave created grave ecological catastrophes, prompting food shortages in1984–85,2006and2011.[87]During the 2011 drought, an estimated 50,000 to 150,000 people were reported to have died,[88]though these figures and the extent of the crisis are disputed.[89]In February 2012, the UN announced that the crisis was over due to a scaling up of relief efforts and a bumper harvest.[90]Aid agencies subsequently shifted their emphasis to recovery efforts, including digging irrigation canals and distributing plant seeds.[90]The 2020–2022 Horn of Africa drought has surpassed the horrific drought in 2010–2011 in both duration and severity.[12][13]The Darfur conflict inSudan,also affectingChad,was fueled by decades of drought; combination of drought,desertificationandoverpopulationare among the causes of the Darfur conflict, because theArabBaggaranomadssearching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by non-Arab farming people.[91]
In 2012, a severedroughtstruck the westernSahel.More than 10 million people in the region were at risk of famine due to a month-long heat wave that was hovering overNiger,Mali,MauritaniaandBurkina Faso.[92]
Himalayan river basins
Approximately 2.4 billion people live in thedrainage basinof the Himalayan rivers.[93]India,China,Pakistan,Bangladesh,NepalandMyanmarcould experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. More than 150 districts in India are drought vulnerable, mostly concentrated in the state of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and its adjoining Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, northern Karnataka and adjoining Maharashtra of the country.[14]Drought in Indiaaffecting the Ganges is of particular concern, as it providesdrinking waterand agriculturalirrigationfor more than 500 million people.[94][95][96]
North America
The west coast ofNorth America,which gets much of its water fromglaciersin mountain ranges such as theRocky MountainsandSierra Nevada,also would be affected.[97][98]
By country or region
Droughts in particular countries:
See also:
Protection, mitigation and relief
Agriculturally, people can effectively mitigate much of the impact of drought through irrigation andcrop rotation.Failure to develop adequate drought mitigation strategies carries a grave human cost in the modern era, exacerbated byever-increasingpopulation densities.
Strategies for drought protection or mitigation include:
- Dams– many dams and their associated reservoirs supply additional water in times of drought.[99]
- Cloud seeding– a form of intentional weather modification to induce rainfall.[100]This remains a hotly debated topic, as theUnited States National Research Councilreleased a report in 2004 stating that to date, there is still no convincing scientific proof of the efficacy of intentional weather modification.[101]
- Land use – Carefully plannedcrop rotationcan help to minimizeerosionand allow farmers to plant less water-dependent crops in drier years.
- Transvasement– Building canals or redirecting rivers as massive attempts atirrigationin drought-prone areas.
Whenwater is scarcedue to droughts, there are a range of options for people to access other sources of water, such aswastewater reuse,rainwater harvestingandstormwater recovery,or seawaterdesalination.
History
Throughout history, humans have usually viewed droughts asdisastersdue to the impact on food availability and the rest of society. Drought is among the earliest documented climatic events, present in theEpic of Gilgameshand tied to theBiblicalstory ofJoseph's arrival in and the laterExodusfromancient Egypt.[102]Hunter-gatherer migrations in 9,500 BC Chile have been linked to the phenomenon,[103]as has the exodus of early humansout of Africaand into the rest of the world around 135,000 years ago.[104]
Droughts can be scientifically explained in terms of physical mechanisms, which underlienatural disastersand are influenced byhuman impact on the environment.[105] Beliefs about drought are further shaped by cultural factors including local knowledge, perceptions, values, beliefs and religion. In some places and times, droughts have been interpreted as the work ofsupernaturalforces.[106]Globally, people in many societies have been more likely to explain natural events like drought, famine and disease in terms of the supernatural than they are to explain social phenomena like war, murder, and theft.[107][108]
Historically,ritualshave been used in an attempt to prevent or avert drought.Rainmaking ritualshave ranged from dances toscapegoatingtohuman sacrifices.Many ancient practices are now a matter offolklorewhile others may still be practiced.[109]
In areas where people have limited understanding of the scientific basis of drought, beliefs about drought continue to reflect indigenous beliefs in the power of spirits and Christian philosophies that see drought as a divine punishment. Such beliefs can influence people's thinking and affect their resilience and ability to adapt to stress and respond to crises.[106]In the case ofCreationism,curricula sometimes give religious explanations of natural phenomena rather than scientific ones. Teaching explicitly deniesevolution,that human agency is affecting climate, and that climate change is occurring.[110]
Some historical droughts include:
- The longest drought inrecorded historystarted 400 years ago in theAtacama DesertinChileand still continues.[111]
- Drought might have been a contributing factor toClassic Maya collapsebetween the 7th and 9th centuries
- 1540 Central Europe,said to be the "worst drought of the millennium" with eleven months without rain and temperatures of 5–7 °C above the average of the 20th century[112][113]
- 1900 India killing between 250,000 and 3.25 million.
- 1921–22 Soviet Union in which over 5 million perished from starvation due to drought.
- 1928–30 Northwest China resulting in over 3 million deaths by famine.
- 1936 and 1941 Sichuan Province China resulting in 5 million and 2.5 million deaths respectively.
See also
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