Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey

Coal,cars and lorries vent more than a third ofTurkey's five hundred million tonnesof annualgreenhouse gas emissions.They are mostlycarbon dioxideand part of the cause ofclimate change in Turkey.A quarter of the emissions are fromelectricity generation.

Coal-fired power stations, such as theZETES power stations,are the largest source of greenhouse gas.

The energy sector, includingtransport,emitted four hundred million tonnes in 2022.The nation's coal-fired power stationsemit the most carbon dioxide, and other significant sources are road vehicles running onpetrolordiesel.After coalandoilthe third most pollutingfuelisfossil gas;which is burnt inTurkey's gas-fired power stations,homes and workplaces. Muchmethane is belched by livestock;cows alone produce half of the greenhouse gas fromagriculture in Turkey.

Economists say that major reasons for Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions aresubsidies for coal-fired power stations,and the lack of aprice on carbon pollution.The 2022 National Energy Plan forecast that 1.7 GW more local coal power would be connected to the grid by 2030.The Chamber of Engineers says that without subsidies coal-fired power stations would be gradually shutdown. TheRight to Clean Air Platformargues that there should be a legal limit onfine airborne dust,much of which comes from car and lorryexhaust.Low-emission zonesin cities would both reducelocal air pollutionand carbon dioxide emissions.

Turkey'sshare of current global greenhouse gas emissionsis 1.3%.Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a halftonnes,which is aboutthe global average.Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details, such as the split between cars and lorries, are not published.

The government supportsreforestation,electric vehicle manufacturingandlow-carbonelectricity generation;and is aiming fornet zero carbon emissionsby 2053. But the long-term plan omitscoal phase-out,and itsnationally determined contribution(NDC 3.0) to theParis Agreementonlimiting climate change,which is due in 2025, has not yet been published.In 2024 environment ministerMurat Kurumsaid that by Turkey’snet zeroyear of 2053 half of primary energy would be from renewables and 30% from nuclear, but did not explain how the remaining 20% could be decarbonized.Emissions may have peaked in 2021.Unless Turkey's climate and energy policies are changed the 2053 net zero target will be missedand exporters of high carbon products, such as cement and electricity, will have to paycarbon tariffs.In 2023 there wasmisinformationabout a draft climate law which aims to keep the tariff money within the country by startingcarbon emission trading.

Estimates ahead of official inventory

As in most countries carbon dioxide, mostly from burning fossil fuels, is the main GHG

Carbon dioxide(CO₂) emissions fromfossil fuelsare by far the biggest part ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.Climate Traceusespace-based measurements of carbon dioxideto quantify large emission sources, like majorcoal-fired power stations in Turkey.According to them 714 million tonnes of GHG was emitted in 2023, with roughly a fifth each from power, waste, transport, and manufacturing. Their estimate of GHG from waste is much higher than 2022 official figures, but agriculture much lower. Official figures do not detail individual sources, but the largest in 2023 according to Climate Trace areZetes power stations,Istanbul airport,İÇDAŞ Biga power station,andIsdemir Payas steel plant.2023 military emissions have been estimated at 4.7 million tonnes,but this estimate may not have used officialNATOmethodology.

Monitoring, reporting and verification

Burning coal, petrol, diesel and natural gas is putting far more carbon dioxide into the air thanforestscan take out. There is some correlation with theeconomic history of Turkey,such as a dip during the2001 economic crisis.

Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) includes sharing information and lessons learned, which strengthens the trust of internationalclimate financedonors.TheDirectorate of Climate ChangeandTurkish government's Statistical Institute(Turkstat) follow theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) reporting guidelines, so usesproduction-based GHG accountingto compile the country'sgreenhouse gas inventory.Usingconsumption-based accountingwould give a similar total.Turkstat sends the data to the UNFCCC annually during the second year following the reported year, for example 2022 emissions were reported in 2024 in the annual National Inventory Document (NID) and Common Reporting Tables (CRT).In years when aBiennial transparency report(BTR) is submitted to the UNFCCC the data may be included with the report, as was done in 2024 with Turkey’s first BTR.Emissions from fuels sold in the country for international aviation and shipping are accounted separately in reports to the UNFCCC, and are not included in a country's total.In 2021jet kerosene,supplied at Turkish airports and burnt by international flights, emitted 8.39 MtCO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent);anddiesel oilandresidual fuel oilfrom Turkish ports powering international shipping 1.89 Mt CO₂e.

TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) defines three methodological tiers to measure emissions. Tier 1 uses global defaults and simplified assumptions, so is the easiest but least accurate. Tier 2 uses country specific values and more detailed data. Tier 3 uses the most detailed data and modelling, so is the most difficult to compile but the most accurate. To make best use of human resources each nation may decide to only use higher tiers to estimate its particular "key categories". Turkstat selects these categories depending on either the absolute level of emissions from that category, or whether it is trending, or uncertain.For example,N₂Ofrom wastewater treatment and discharge was a key category for 2021 solely because of its quickly rising emissions.Nevertheless, most of the key categories selected in 2021 are the largest emitting sectors,cement productionfor example. Turkey uses Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology for some key categories, for example a power plant mightanalyse the ligniteit burns, which differs from mine to mine.Although road transport is a key category, it is not split between cars and lorries as is done in some countries. In 2021 the UNFCCC asked Turkey why it reported negligible indirect GHGs (carbon monoxide,nitrogen oxides,non-methanevolatile organic compoundsandsulfur oxides) in 2018.

Greenhouse gas sources

Coal-fired power stations emit the most, followed by cars and lorries.

Turkey emitted 558 Mt of GHG in 2022,which is higher than would be sustainable under aglobal carbon budget.Per-person emissions are around the world average,at 6.6 t in 2022.Turkey's cumulative CO₂emissions are estimated at around 12 Gt, which is less than 1% of the world's cumulative total (Turkey's population is about 1% of world population).Turkey's emissions can be looked at from different perspectives to the standard IPCC classification: for example a 2021 study byIzmir University of Economicsestimated that food, "from farm to fork", accounts for about a third of national emissions,which is similar to the global emissions share of food.

Fossil fuels

See also:Energy in Turkey

Emissions from gas increased, but remain far below coal. Emissions from oil products, such as petrol and diesel, increased more slowly than gas and coal.

Burningcoal in Turkeywas the largest contributor to fossil-fuel emissions in 2021, followed by oil and natural gas.That year, Turkey's energy sector emitted over 70% of the country's GHG,mostly through electricity generation, followed by transport.In contrast agriculture contributed 13% of emissions and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) also 13%.Carbon capture and storageis not economically viable, since the country has nocarbon pricing.The GHG emission intensity of energy consumption is higher than in the EU.

From 2023 Turkey expects to greatly increase gas production.In 2021, IEA headFatih Birolcalled for fossil-fuel producing countries to include limits onmethane leaksin their climate pledges,for example the United States is doing this.

Production of public heat and electricity emitted 148megatonnesof CO₂e in 2021,mainly through coal burning.In 2020,emission intensitywas about 440 gCO₂/kWh,around the average forG20countries.Investment in wind andsolaris hampered by subsidies for coal.

Pollution overAnkara.Coal is still burnt to heat older buildings in cities.

Subsidised coal burnt by poor families contributes a bit to climate change, and more importantly itssootpollutes local air.Residential fuel, such as natural gas and coal, contributed 50 Mt CO₂e in 2021.Burningfossil fuelssuch as coal and natural gas to heat commercial and institutional buildings emitted 14 Mt CO₂e in 2021.According to theMinistry of Energy and Natural Resources,"The energy sector, which is an emission-intensive and resource-intensive sector, will be one of the sectors that will be most affected by the regulations brought or to be brought by [the Paris and UNFCCC] agreements. In this context, our country is determined to use its energy resources effectively, efficiently and with the least impact on the environment, within the framework of sustainable development goals.”.

Coal-fired power stations

Some old power stations likeYatağanpollute but are subsidized.

Turkey's coal-fired power stationsare the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey at 103 Mt (about 20% of national emissions – see pie chart) in 2021.Over a kilogram of CO₂is emitted for everyKWhof electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations.If operated at the targetedcapacity factor,plannedunits at Afşin Elbistanwould add over 60 Mt CO₂per year,more than one-tenth of the country's entire emissions.

Almost all coal burnt in power stations is localligniteor importedbituminous (hard) coal.Coal analysisof Turkish lignite shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low inenergy valueand high inemission intensity;that is Turkish lignite emits more CO₂than other countries' lignites.When carbon dioxide (CO₂) from coal used by industry and buildings, andmethane emissionsfromcoal mining,are added to those from coal-fired electricity generation, over 30% of Turkey's annual emissions come from coal. In 2021, burning coal emitted 153 Mt CO₂in total.Methane leaks from coal mines in 2021 were equivalent to 6 Mt CO₂.Eren Holding(via Eren Enerji's coal-firedZETES power stations) emits over 2% of Turkey's GHG, andİÇDAŞemits over 1% from its Bekirli coal-fired power stations.Emissions ofblack carbonare not published for individual power stations,as Turkey has not ratified theGothenburg Protocolon air pollution.

Gas-fired power stations

Gas-fired power stationsemitted 46 Mt CO₂e in 2021.It is difficult for them to compete with coal partly due to the lack of a carbon price.Electricity generation from gas tends to increase when hydropower is limited by droughts.The cost of natural gas is expected to fall around 2026 with the expiry of expensive import agreements with Russia and Iran, and increasing production from theSakarya Gas Fieldin theBlack Sea.

Transport fuel

A traffic jam inIstanbul,one of the few major European cities without alow-emission zone.

Transport emitted 91 Mt of CO₂e in 2021,a bit over one tonne per person.Road transport in the countrydominated emissions with 86 Mt (including agricultural vehicles).Over three-quarters of Turkey's road-transport emissions come fromdiesel fuel.Over half of motor vehicles are cars,but their proportion of road-transport emissions compared to others such as lorries is not known. Although the EU has a 2021 target of 95 g of CO₂/km, Turkey has no target for road vehicle emissions per km.Fuel quality and emissions standards for new cars are less strict than those in the EU;and in 2019 about 45% of cars were over 10 years old and energy-inefficient.The market share of electric vehicles was below world average in 2020.Domestic flightsemitted 3 Mt of CO₂e in 2021and their VAT rate was cut to 1%.

Industry

In 2021,Turkey's industrial sectoremitted 75 Mt (13%) of GHG.IEA head Fatih Birol has said that the country has a lot of potential for renewable energy.Some sugar factories, such as some owned by Türkşekerand Konya Seker, burn coal for theheat needed to makesugar and sometimes to generate electricity.Some industrial companies reach theGlobal Reporting InitiativeGRI 305 emissions standard.

Iron and steel

The European steel industry has complained that steel imports from Turkey are unfair competition, because they are not subject to acarbon tax,and alleges that the natural gas used to produce some steel is subsidised.Turkish steel, primarily fromminimills,averages about one tonne of CO₂per tonne of steel produced.Although this average is less polluting than China,three steelworks—Erdemir,İsdemirandKardemir—useblast furnacesand thus emit more than those usingelectric arc furnaces.The futureCarbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM) in the European Green Deal may include a carbon tariff on Turkish steel produced in blast furnaces,but the CBAM could help arc furnaces compete against products such as Chinese steel.

Cement

Turkey is the sixth-largestcementproducer in the world and the largest in Europe,and by far the largest exporter to the EU.Cement (clinker) production in 2021 emitted 44 Mt CO₂,8% of the country's total GHG.Climate Tracehas estimated the contributions of individual factories, sometimes from kiln heat visible from satellites,and says that Nuh, Göltaş, andMedcem cement plantsemitted more than 1 Mt each in 2023.Nuh publish information about their emissions and say some of their cement is low emission,and Medcem publishes some figureswhereas Göltaş has less GHG info.

Turkey's construction sectorcontracted at the end of 2018and so used less cement.Cement producers in the EU have to buyEU carbon credits,and say the CBAM is needed to protect them from unfair competition from Turkish companies as they pay no carbon price.The CBAM could be up to 50% on the cement price.The proportion of clinker in publicly procured cement is being reduced.

Other

The official estimate for 2021soda ashproduction was under 1 Mt but the emission factor used in the calculation is confidential.Climate Traceestimated 2022 at over 3 Mt,but have very low confidence in the accuracy of their estimate.Kazan Soda ElektrikandEti Sodahave published figures for 2019 and 2021 respectively.

Agriculture and fishing

Almost half of agricultural emissions are from cows.

Agriculture accounted for 72 Mt which was 13% of Turkey's total 2021 GHG, including 61% of its methane emissions and 78% of itsnitrous oxideemissions.These are due primarily toenteric fermentation,agricultural soils,andfertilizermanagement.Cattle emit almost half of the GHG from agriculture.- (Total 72 Mt: 27 Mt enteric fermentation 61% of 9 Mt manure management = 32 Mt).

About three quarters of red meat production in Turkey is beef.Turks eat an average of 15 kilograms (33 lb) ofbeefper person each year (which is more than the world average), and the country produced 1 million tonnes of beef in 2021.Livestock are subsidized.VAT on meat and dairy is 1% like other "staple foods". Beingruminantssheep, goats and cattle belch methane. Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide, but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors' emissions are lacking.Turkey is one of the top ten nitrous oxide emitters.Production of plastic,such as for agriculture, may release significant GHG in future.National GHG inventories do not yet includebottom trawling,as the IPCC has yet to issue accounting guidelines.In 2024 the government said that farming subsidies would be “reviewed through the lens of climate change”.

Waste

Municipalities collect about 1kg of waste per person per day.The government says the waste sector contributed 16 Mt (3%) of Turkey's 2022 GHG,with almost half of that from the tenth of waste sent to unmanagedlandfills.However Climate Trace estimates that it was 20% of total GHG in 2023.It is unclear why there is such an enormous difference.

Landfilling is the most common waste-disposal method.Climate Trace estimateOdayeri(even though it has abiogasfacility) on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2023.Organic waste sent to landfills emits methane, but the country is working to improve sustainablewaste and resource management.One third of organic waste iscomposted,but others argue forincineration.Some refrigerants are sent to Turkey from other countries for destruction.

Mitigation

The government said in November 2024 that it was dedicated to global efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees,but according toClimate Action TrackerTurkey's GHG emissions are not in line with the Paris Agreement objective to limit temperature rise to well below 2 °C.

A long-term climate strategy was published in 2024 but omitscoal phase-out.TheUnited Nations Environment Programmesays a faster decarbonisation is needed, and emissions per person per year should be cut by more than half to about 2–2.5 t CO₂e by 2030.The government intended to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy,and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023,but as of 2025 the plan ends in 2030.Turkey argues that as adeveloping countryit should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree.

Unless Turkey's energy policy is changed, European Union (EU) emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey's during the 2020s.Since the EU is Turkey's main trading partner, a comparison with targets in theEuropean Green Dealis important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EUcarbon tariffs,on exports such as steeland cement.Public and private sector working groups discussed theEuropean Green Deal,and theTrade Ministrypublished an action plan in response to itsCarbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

Path to net zero

See also:Climate change litigation § Turkey

Greenhouse gas target

Greenhouse gas per person, before and after absorption by forests. The greater net dip in 2019 is because forest cover was resurveyed and found to be more than previously thought.

Emissions may have peaked in 2021and Turkey is aiming fornet zero carbon emissionsby 2053.TheWorld Bankhas estimated the cost and benefits, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning.The long-term climate change strategy published by theMinistry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Changein 2024 does not specifically mention coal, but says that the “infrastructure of existing fossil fuel-based facilities will be reviewed”.

In 2021 Istanbul Policy Center, a thinktank which is part of Sabancı University, released a summary of their own plan.The plan says that net zero by 2050 is possible and that the key to decarbonization is increasing the share of solar and wind in electricity generation. It says that CO₂emissions could be reduced by 32% from 2018 to 2030. And that the share of renewable resources other than hydroelectricity in installed power could be increased from 17 per cent in 2018 to 50 per cent in 2030 and 77 per cent in 2050. According to the plan, Turkey could increase the total wind/solar installed power to 35 GW by 2030 by constructing an average of 3 GW of solar and 2.5 GW of wind power plants every year.The plan says thatgrossCO₂emissions could be reduced to 132 million tons by 2050.

Energy

See also:Energy in Turkey § Energy transition

Emissions could be reduced considerably by switching from coal to existing gas-fired power stations:as there is enough generating capacity to allow the decommissioning of all coal-fired power stations and still meet peak energy demand, as long as hydropower as well as gas is used to meet peaks in demand.By the mid-2020s the gas price is forecast to have fallen considerably,as Turkey's production from the Black Sea will be more than enough to meet national demand.However, according to a 2021 study the electricity sector is financially unable to transform itself in response to the CBAM, and "to avoid market failure, the government must step in by designing a general decarbonization program for electricity production in Turkey".Asolar panelfactory began production in 2020;andsolarandwind powerare the cheapest generating technologies,but are underdeveloped.Fossil fuel subsidies riskcarbon lock-in,but if they were scrapped (as suggest by environment minister Şimşek) wind and solar power could expand faster.Relying simply on battery storage would be insufficient to decarbonise electricity, as periods of high and low demand last for two to three weeks.Ramping downnuclear power in Turkeywill be technically possible, at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops, but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue.However, after upgrading,repoweringand adding a small amount ofpumped-storage hydroelectricity,there are enoughhydropower dams in Turkeyto providedispatchable generationto balancevariable renewable energy,even allowing for more frequentdroughts in Turkeyin the future because of climate change.Solar farms are being co-located with hydropower to maintain generation in case of drought.Turkey is in the top ten countries forgeothermal energy.National and international investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are being made; for example, the EBRD is supporting the installation ofsmart meters.Along with cement the electricity sector is forecast to be the hardest hit by the CBAM.

Buildings

There are almost 10 millionbuildings in Turkey,and as they are the largest energy consumers there are substantial opportunities for energy savings in both new build and renovations.There is a roadmap, which says that as of 2021 three quarters of building stock is pre-21st century, that is pre energy standards.A typical residential building emits almost 50 kgCO2eq/m2/year, mostly due to the energy used by residents.TheOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs.Turkey was a co-leader of the group discussingzero-carbon buildingsat the2019 UN Climate Action Summit,and the city ofEskişehirhas pledged to convert all existing buildings to zero emissions by 2050.Such energy efficiency improvements can be made in the same programme as increasing resilience toearthquakes in Turkey.However, as of 2023 gas was subsidized.Increasing the proportion ofpassive houseshas been suggested,as has adopting some EU building standards.ThinktankEmbersaid in 2023 thatrooftop solarshould be mandatory on new buildings, and say that installation on apartment block roofs is hindered by bureaucracy.To improve theenergy efficiencyof buildings it has been suggested thatgreen buildingprinciples and technologies should be applied.

Althoughlow-energy houses,zero-energy buildingsandzero carbon housingwill be encouraged,the 2024 long-term plan said that “The existing natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructure will be strengthened, and natural gas access will be provided in areas where renewable sources and waste heat-based district heating/cooling systems are not technically or economically feasible.”In rural areas without a piped gas supply,heat pumpscould be an alternative to wood, coal and bottled gas: but buying a heat pump is rare as it is very expensive for householders as there is no subsidy.However, owners of larger properties such as shopping centres, schools and government buildings have shown more interest.Direct geothermal heating (not to be confused with heat pumps) installed capacity totaled 3.5 GW thermal (GWt) in 2020, with the potential for 60 GWt.

There is no data on thecarbon intensityof cement.Emissions from cement production could be lessened by reducing itsclinkercontent—for example, by makingLimestone Calcined Clay Cement,which is only half clinker. The second-largest reduction could be made by switching half the fuel from hard coal andpetroleum coke(petcoke) to a mixture of rubber from waste tires,refuse-derived fuelandbiomass.Although the country has enough of these materials, most cement kilns (there are 54) use coal, petcoke or lignite as their primary energy source.Morecross-laminated timbercould be used for building, instead of concrete.Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture,perhaps storing in asalt domenearLake Tuzor inDiyarbakır Province.

Transport

In the 2000s transport emission intensity improved, but this gain was partially lost in the 2010s due to the growing preference forsport utility vehicles.Although Turkey has severalmanufacturers of electric busesand many are exported,fewer than 100 were in use in the country in 2021.A 2024 analysis said that government was prioritising vehicle production and exports over electric vehicle use.Ebikesare manufactured,but cities could be improved to makecycling in Turkeysafer.

Although Turkey's ferries (unlike some other countries') are still fossil-fuelled,the world's first all-electrictugboatbegan working in Istanbul's harbour in 2020,electric lorries are manufactured,and an electricexcavatoris planned for 2022.Eti Mine Worksproduces small quantities oflithium carbonatelocally, and plans to increase production for use in batteries. A battery factory is plannedby Aspilsan, which is part ofTurkey's defence industry,andFord Otosanstarted makingelectric vansin 2022.Over a quarter of a millioncharging stationsare planned by 2030.Building codes are being changed to mandate electric carcharging pointsin new shopping centres and car parks.

As of 2024 2% of cars on the road are hybrid and 1% fully electric, but there are almost no commercial EVs.Partially due to high importtariffs,few electric cars are sold.Chinese EVs are subject to a 50% import tariff.In 2023 about 10% of cars sold were electric, including hybrids.Turkey's automotive industrymakeselectric cars locally,which have incentives.However the special consumption tax^(Turkish)is 10% or more. As well as cutting GHG, creation of a domesticelectric vehiclemarket byTOGGis hoped to reduce vehicle running costs,create jobs,and reduce oil imports.Introducingsmart chargingis important to avoid overloadingTurkish electricity distribution networks.

Petrol and diesel taxes are lower than in the neighbouring EUbut higher than in oil-producing countries to the south.Taxis could be better integrated with public transport.However Istanbul taxi regulations are politically deadlocked.The central government has drafted enabling regulations forlow-emission zones,but as of 2025 no municipality has created one.According to Shura three-quarters of emissions in the transport sector come from road freight transport.Sales of fossil-fuelled road vehicles will be banned from 2040.

UsingInternational Civil Aviation OrganizationmethodologyTurkish Airlinesofferscarbon offsetscertified toVerified Carbon StandardandGold Standard.Turkey is participating in theCarbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.In 2024 the UNFCCC again asked Turkey to separate international from national aviation and shipping in its inventory.

Industry

Restriction ofHydrofluorocarbons(HFC) under theKigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol,which limits emissions offluorinated gases,began in 2024 aiming for 10% reduction by 2029 and 80% by 2045.However as of 2024,HFC smuggling from Turkey to the EU remains a problem.Electric motorsinsmall and medium-sized enterprisesare becoming more efficient.Low-carbon hydrogenand ammonia could help with hard to decarbonise industries; such as fertilizer andpetrochemicals.As of 2021there are almost no supporters of theTask Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures,to provide information to investors about the risks of climate change to companies.Some manufacturers which export to the EU are adding their own solar power to reduce emissions,and theTurkish Industry and Business Associationhas asked the EU for funding to help strengthen alignment with the CBAM.

Agriculture and fishing

Climate-smart agricultureis being studiedand financed,andagrivoltaicshas been suggested as suitable formaizeand some other shade-loving vegetables.President Erdoğan has called for moremarine protected areasininternational waters.There are no international waters adjacent to Turkey'sterritorial waters,of which about 4% is marine protected area.

Carbon sinks

See also:Reforestation § Turkey

These existing trees are being added to byreforestation.

Turkey has 23 million hectares of forest covering quarter of the country, though over 40% isdegraded woodland.Turkey's forestsare its maincarbon sinkand offset 34 Mt of the country's emissions in 2021.The government said in 2015 that by 2050 "forests are envisioned to stretch across over four-fifths of the country's territory".However warmer and drier air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover.Due to forest fires and reduced productivity due to climate change trees are becoming less of a sink but,despite regional variations, forests are expected to remain an overall carbon sink.Almost all Turkey's forest land belongs to the state and cannot be privatised. Privateafforestationpermits have been issued however, to encourage tree planting in areas where tree density is low.Civil society organizations,such as theTurkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosionand theForesters' Association of Turkey,are also encouraging reforestation.In 2019, an annual "National Forestation Day" every 11 November was established by President Erdoğan.Junipershave been suggested for reforestation because of their hardiness, but are said to need help to regrow quickly.But, according toEge Universityassociate professor Serdar Gökhan Senol, theMinistry of Agriculture and Forestrysometimes replants when it should wait for regrowth instead.

Three-quarters of Turkey's land is deficient insoil organic matter.This containssoil organic carbon,which is estimated to total 3.5 billion tonnes at 30 centimetres (12 in) soil depth, with 36 t/ha in agricultural fields.Soil organic carbon has been mapped:this is important because carbon emissions from soil are directly related to climate change, but vary according to soil interactionwith low levels of soil organic carbon increasing the risk ofsoil erosion.Turkey is a major producer ofmarble;it has been suggested that waste from the industry could capture carbon bycalcium looping.

Economics

See also:Air pollution in Turkey § Economics

Recent economic growth emits less carbon dioxide

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries, growth of theTurkish economy,and to a lesser extent population, caused increased emissions from electricity generation,industry and construction,as described by theenvironmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.And from the 1990s to the 2010s they were correlated with electricity generation.But during the 2010seconomic growthand the increase in emissions decoupled somewhat.Since the 1970s the energy intensity of economic growth has fluctuated around 1kWh per 2011 USD,whereas the carbon intensity of energy has fallen from 300g per kWh to 200g per kWh.In 2018, the government forecast that GHG emissions were expected to increase in parallel with GDP growth over the next decade.Once economic growth resumes afterthe debt crisis that began in 2018and the country'sCOVID-19 recession,energy demand is also expected to grow. Nevertheless, Carbon Tracker says that it will be possible todecoupleeconomic growth and emissions, by expanding the country's renewable-energy capacity and investing in energy efficiency with a sustainable energy policy.

On average the consumption-based CO₂emissions of one of the richest 10% of people in Turkey is more than double that of someone in the rest of the population,as richer people tend to fly more and buy gasoline-fuelledSUVs.Nevertheless 2019 studies disagree on whether Turkey's highincome inequalitycauses higher CO₂emissions.

The long-term strategy says that public procurement will prioritize low-carbon products and services.While the government pledged to buy 30,000 locally made electric cars,there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country's COVID-19 recession. On the contrary theVAT ratefor domestic aviation was cut, and oil and gas were discounted.Almost all the stimulus was detrimental to the environment; according to a 2021 report, only Russia's was less green.Turkey has received climate finance from theGlobal Environment Facility,theClean Technology Fund,and various bilateral funding, but is not eligible for theGreen Climate Fundbecause of its status as adeveloped countryunder the UNFCCC.

Worldwide,marginal abatement coststudies show that improving the energy efficiency of buildings and replacing fossil fuelled power plants with renewables are usually the most cost-effective ways of reducing carbon emissions.A 2017 study concluded that a US$50/tonne carbon price (similar to the 2021 EU price) would reduce emissions by about 20%, mainly by discouraging coal.A more detailed 2020 study said that the electricity sector is key, and that low cost abatement is possible in the building sector.The same study said that low levels of abatement in agriculture would be cheap, but high levels very expensive.A 2021 study by Shura said that energy transition could increase national income by more than 1%, the largest part being wage increases due to higher skilled jobs,such as in wind and solar power.According to the study socioeconomic benefits, such as better health and wages, would be three times the financial cost.

Turkey'scarbon emissionsare costly, even without carbon tariffs from other countries.The short-term healthco-benefits of climate change mitigationhave been estimated at $800 million for Turkey in the year 2028 alone.As of 2022investment in green energy is far smaller than the country's potential.Academics have estimated that if Turkey and other countries invested in accordance with theParis Agreement,Turkey would break even around 2060.A 2023 IMF working paper says that carbon pricing can be designed to support poor people.

Fossil fuel subsidies

According to the OECD,fossil fuel subsidiesin 2019 totalled over 25 billion lira (US$4.4 billion),nearly 1% of GDP.Economics professor Ebru Voyvoda has criticised growth policies based on the construction and real estate sectors, and said that moving from fossil fuels to electricity is important.According to a 2020 report by theInternational Institute for Sustainable Development:"Turkey also lacks transparency and continues to provide support for coal production and fossil fuel use, predominantly by foregoing tax revenue and providingstate-owned enterpriseinvestment. "A MWh of electricity from Turkish lignite emits over a tonne of CO₂.Some electricity from these power stations is purchased bythe state electricity companyat a guaranteed price of US$50–55/MWh until the end of 2027,despite coal power subsidies being economically irrational.Coal miners' wages are subsidised.

The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore for oil and produce it.According to the OECD, in 2019 the fuel tax exemption fornaphtha,petroleum cokeandpetroleum bitumenwas a subsidy of 6.7 billion lira (US$1.2 billion), the largest of Turkey's fossil fuel subsidies that year.Petcoke is used in cement production.In other countries fossil fuel subsidies have been successfully scrapped by good communication from government, immediate cash transfers to poor people, energy price smoothing and energy transition support for households and firms.

Carbon pricing

Main article:Turkish Emissions Trading System

Boğaziçi Universityhas developed a decision-support tool andintegrated assessment modelfor Turkey's energy and environmental policy.Over 400 (about 9%) of the world'svoluntary carbon offsetprojects are in Turkey:mostly wind, hydro, and landfill methane projects.As elsewhere wildfires are a threat to forest carbon offsets.The main standards are theGold Standardand theVerified Carbon Standard.Earlier academic assessment suggested a revenue-neutral carbon tax might be best for the Turkish economy,butcarbon emission tradingis more likely to be accepted politically.TheTurkish emissions trading systemis due to start in 2025.Without a carbon tax or emissions trading, the country is vulnerable to carbon tariffs imposed by the EU,the UK and otherexport partners.Turkey received by far the most EU climate-change financing in 2018:also the EBRD is investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy,and has offered to support an equitable transition from coal.Although there is no carbon price, other taxes in 2021 covered 39% of emissionsand were equivalent to a carbon price of 22.50 euros.

TheInternational Monetary Fundsays G20 countries should make their high-emitting companies pay a carbon price, which should rise to $75 per tonne of CO₂by 2030.The OECD recommends carbon pricing for all sectors,but road fuel is currently Turkey's only major carbon pricing.Taxes meet the social cost of road-transport carbon but not, however, the social cost of the country's air pollution.However, all other sectors have a large gap between the actual tax (€6per tonne of CO₂in 2018) and the tax with this negativeexternality;thus emitters do not bear the actual cost of most GHG, violating thepolluter pays principle.Annual fossil fuel import cost savings of approximately $17 billion by meeting Paris Agreement goals have been estimated.Turkish-American economistDaron Acemoğlusaid in 2016 that carbon taxes alone do not generally act fast enough against dirty technologies, but that subsidising research into clean technologies is also necessary.

Politics

Chart showing results of the Peoples' Climate Vote 2024 survey, regarding support for a quick transition away from fossil fuels

Article 56 of theTurkish Constitutionstates:

Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment. It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment, to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution.

A similar clause in the constitution of the US state ofMontanahas been used to declare laws that support fossil fuels unconstitutional.

However, until production from large gas fields under the Black Sea begins in the mid-2020s, some in Turkey see burning local lignite as essential to lessen the high gas import bill.Likewise, until local production of solar panelsand electric vehicles,and mininglithiumfor batteriesall greatly increase, it is hard to avoid importing a lot of petroleum to make diesel and gasoline.

2000s

TheJustice and Development Party (AK Party),led byRecep Tayyip Erdoğan,was elected to government in 2003 and has been in power almost continuously since then. Turkey ratified the UNFCCC in 2004, but says it is unfair that it is included amongst theAnnex I (developed) countries.When the treaty was signed in 1992 Turkey had much lower emissions per person, and no historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. So, theForeign Ministryargue that Turkey should have been grouped with non-Annex developing countries, which can receive climate finance from the Green Climate Fund.Turkey ratified theKyoto Protocolin 2009.

2010s

In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey, the main oppositionRepublican People's Partycriticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels.TheClimate Change and Air Management Coordination Boardwas created to coordinate government departments, and includes three business organisations.The Environment Ministry chairs it, though other ministries have considerable influence over climate change policy. The Energy Ministry has an Environment and Climate Department (responsible for the GHG inventory) and theMinistry of Treasury and Financeleads on climate financing.

Turkey signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 but did not ratify it.In 2015 Turkey declared its intention to achieve "up to a 21% reduction in GHG emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030".But because "Business as Usual" was assumed to be such a large increase, the "21% reduction" is an increase of over 7% per yearto around double the 2020 level.

In 2019, Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change atSabancı University,said that Turkey saw industrialised Western countries as solely responsible.While discussing their limited actions on climate change, Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement(not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year).Turkey was the 16th largestemitting countryin 2019.

During the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on achievingcarbon neutralityby 2050, Turkey co-led the coalition on thedecarbonizationof land transport.Energy MinisterFatih Dönmez said that Turkey planned to increase the share of renewables to two thirds of total electricity generation by 2023. Dönmez expressed Turkey's strong desire to add nuclear power to itsenergy mix,withTurkey's first nuclear power plant,expected to be partially operational by 2023.As of 2019,the government aimed to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium and long term. This was explained, in part, because of Turkey's desire to have a diverse mix of energy sources. Rather than increase imports of gas, it wanted to retain domestic coal, albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment.İklim Haber (Climate News) andKONDA Research and Consultancyfound in 2018 thatpublic opinion on climate changeprefers solar and wind power.

2020s

Local politics and a just transition

See also:Coal in Turkey § Employment

Children's models commemorating theSoma mine disaster– "This is how they earn their daily bread"

Çatalağzı power stationinZonguldak:Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up.

Although the transition to clean energy increases employment in Turkey as a whole,for example in wind and solar powerand energy efficiency of buildings,lost jobs may be concentrated in certain locations and sectors.For example, closingŞırnak Silopi power stationand the coal mines inŞırnak Provincecould increase already high unemployment there.A 2021 study estimated the mining sector would employ 21 thousand fewer people, 14% of total mining employment in 2018.The study also forecast job losses in textiles, agriculture and food processing, because such labour-intensive sectors would not be able to keep up with efficiency gains in other sectors.Because carbon pricing would beregressiveeconomists say that poor people should be compensated.In 2024 the government said it will make a national policy for ajust transition;policy to quit high-carbon, such as coal, is lacking.Similarly, it is hard for livestock farmers to make a profit,so a sudden removal of subsidies would be an economic shock. But, unlike in neighbouring Greece,there have been no public debates about a just transition.According to former Economy MinisterKemal Derviş,many people will benefit from the green transition, but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups, making them more visible and politically disruptive.At the municipal level,Antalya,Bornova,Bursa,Çankaya,Eskişehir Tepebaşı,Gaziantep,İzmir,Kadıköy,Maltepe,NilüferandSeferihisarhavesustainable energyand climate plans.A 2021 academic study of localclimate change politicssaid that "local climate action planning takes place independent from the national efforts yet with a commitment to international agreements" and that better co-ordination between local and national government would help planning forclimate change adaptation.Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021: according toPoliticothe country was persuaded by a 3.2 billion dollar loan from France and Germany for itsenergy transition,and Turkey's chief negotiator said the threat of the EU CBAM was a factor.

National Politics

Some suggest that limiting emissions through directives to the state-owned gas and electricity companies would be less effective than a carbon price, but would be more politically acceptable.Turkish citizens are takingindividual and political action on climate changeto the streetsand online,including children demanding actionand petitioning the UN.The Industrial Development Bank of Turkey says that it has implemented a sustainable business model, and sustainability-themed investments have a 74% share of the bank's loan portfolio.Turkey's Green Partyis calling for an end to coal burningand the phasing out of all fossil-fuel use by 2050.Electricity generated from lignite is often described by politicians and the media as generated from "local resources" and added to the renewables percentage.TRT Worldcalls natural gas "blue gold".

After the 2020/21 droughts, theNationalist Movement Party(the smaller party in the governing coalition) said that climate change is a national security issue.The threat of climate change had already beensecuritizedby Environment Minister Murat Kurum back in 2019.Also following on from the droughts, all parties in parliament, including smaller opposition parties like thePeoples' Democratic Partyand theGood Party,agreed to set up a Parliamentary Research Commission to combat climate change and drought.A draft climate law, includingemissions trading,was considered in 2021and a revised draft in 2023, but as of 2023there is no emissions trading.In 2023 there wasmisinformationabout this draft, the draft aims to keep the tariff money within the country by startingcarbon emission trading.

The national energy plan published in 2022 expected 1.7 GW more coal power to be built,but the opposition CHP had already said that no more fossil fuel power plants should be built and that there should be carbon trading.Businesses say the country needs to decarbonize so that money which would otherwise be lost to the CBAM remains in the country: NGOs and academics have such plans, however a February 2022 government-led "Climate Council" of all those groups and others issued over 200 recommendations,but not one for coal phase out.European Climate Action Network Turkey complained that civil society is not properly represented in decision making and in particular that there were no organizations such as theirs in the "Emission Reduction Commission" of the Climate Council.

International politics

Murat Kurum has said that global cooperation is key to tackling climate change,and US climate change envoyJohn Kerryhas said that the top 20 emitting countries should reduce emissions immediately.Turkey and some other member countries say theEnergy Charter Treatyshould be changed to help with decarbonization, but because changes must be unanimous this is unlikely to happen.Turkish Petroleum Corporation(TPAO) is in discussions with private-sector companies about investment in Black Sea fossil gas.China fundedEmba Hunutlu coal-fired power stationstarted up in 2022.

The government says that, as a developing country having less than 1% responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey's position under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement is not fair at all.However some academics say that low historical greenhouse gas emissions can only be used as a fairness justification underinternational environmental lawbyleast developed countriesandsmall island developing states.They say that almost all G20 countries, including Turkey, should reduce their emissions below the 2010 level.Nevertheless, the same academics say that countries with higher historical emissions should reduce emissions more.

TheTurkish Industry and Business Associationlobbied for ratification of the Paris Agreement.The non-ratification was used as an argument against approval ofWoodhouse Collieryin the UK, as opponents said much of the coal would be exported to Turkey.In 2021 Turkey again asked to be removed from Annex 1 (developed countries) of the UNFCCC, "in order to make our fight against climate change more effective and to have access to climate finance".Some business people said that Turkey does not need more climate funding in order to meet its current commitments, so should ratify the Paris Agreement and stop building coal power in order to avoid the CBAM.Environmental lawyersbecame more active in the 2020s,but as of 2021,theEuropean Court of Human Rightshas not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v. several countries including Turkey, brought by children and young adults.The Paris Agreement was ratified by parliament shortly before the2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference.

Hakan Mining and Generation Industry & Trade Inc. is constructingGisagara peat-fired power stationin Rwanda.

In 2022 the country promised, in its updated first nationally determined contribution(NDC), to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41% compared to business-as-usual by 2030: however this means Turkey's carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030,with emissions peaking by 2038 or before.Because the government says BAU is 1175 Mt CO2eq, whereasclimate activistssay that the NDC should have promised an immediate actual reduction.Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053,and say that delaying Turkey's energy transition is more expensive than starting it at once.The 2053 target was reportedly set without consulting the Energy Ministry, and as of 2023 that ministry has not published a decarbonization roadmap.

Research and data access

Sabancı University's Shura Energy Transition Center is researchingdecarbonization pathways.Linear regression,expert judgement and local integrated assessment modelling is used for non-energy projections.Emissions from industry have beenmodelledby the Energy Ministry and theScientific and Technological Research Council of TurkeyusingTIMES-MACRO.On 2021 trends the OECD expects emissions to double from 2015 to 2030.A "Climate Change Platform" is planned to share studies and data.

Although the OECD praised the government'smonitoring, reporting and verification(MRV) system and said in 2021 that it covers half of total emissions,unlike the public sharing of data in theEU emission trading system,much detailed emissions data in Turkey is not public.Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available;neither are projections of long-term policy impacts.An expert review published on 2 April 2024 of Turkey's GHG report published in 2023 noted that over 50 recommendations made in previous expert reviews had not yet been addressed.Space-based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of themegacityof Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early-2020s.

External links

• Reports to UNFCCC
• UNFCCC Turkey other documents
• Nationally Determined Contribution
• Emissions estimateatClimate Trace
• Live carbon emissions from electricity generation
• Methane map (requires login)
• Fossil fuel registry
• Hydrogen strategy (2023)