Aceasefire(also known as atruceorarmistice[1]), also spelledcease fire(theantonymof 'open fire'[2]), is a stoppage of awarin which each side agrees with the other to suspend aggressive actions, often due to mediation by a third party.[3][4]Ceasefires may be between state actors or involve non-state actors.[1]
ByThomas NastinHarper's Weekly,February 17, 1877, p. 132.
Ceasefires may be declared as part of a formaltreaty,but also as part of an informal understanding between opposing forces.[2]They may occur via mediation or otherwise as part of apeace processor be imposed byUnited Nations Security Councilresolutions via Chapter VII of theUnited Nations Charter.[2]
The immediate goal of a ceasefire is to stop violence, but the underlying purposes of ceasefires vary. Ceasefires may be intended to meet short-term limited needs (such as providing humanitarian aid), manage a conflict to make it less devastating, or advance efforts to peacefully resolve a dispute.[1]An actor may not always intend for a ceasefire to advance the peaceful resolution of a conflict, but instead give the actor an upper hand in the conflict (for example, by re-arming and repositioning forces or attacking an unsuspecting adversary), which createsbargaining problemsthat may make ceasefires less likely to be implemented and less likely to be durable if implemented.[3][1][5]
The durability of ceasefire agreements is affected by several factors, such as demilitarized zones, withdrawal of troops and third-party guarantees and monitoring (e.g.peacekeeping). Ceasefire agreements are more likely to be durable when they reduce incentives to attack, reduce uncertainty about the adversary's intentions, and when mechanisms are put in place to prevent accidents from spiraling into conflict.[3]
Overview
editCeasefire agreements are more likely to be reached when the costs of conflict are high and when the actors in a conflict have loweraudience costs.[6]Scholars emphasize that war termination is more likely to occur when actors have more information about each other, when actors can make credible commitments, and when the domestic political situation makes it possible for leaders to make war termination agreements without incurring domestic punishment.[7]
By one estimate, there were at least 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries in 109 civil conflicts over the period 1989–2020.[1]
Historical examples
editHistorically, the concept of a ceasefire existed at least by the time of the Middle Ages, when it was known as a'truce of God'.[8]
World War I
editDuringWorld War I,on December 24, 1914, there was anunofficial ceasefireon theWestern FrontasFrance,theUnited Kingdom,andGermanyobservedChristmas.There are accounts that claimed the unofficial ceasefire took place throughout the week leading to Christmas, and that British and German troops exchanged seasonal greetings and songs between their trenches.[9]The ceasefire was brief but spontaneous. Beginning when German soldiers litChristmas trees,it quickly spread up and down the Western Front.[10]One account described the development in the following words:
It was good to see the human spirit prevailed amongst all sides at the front, the sharing and fraternity. All was well until the higher echelons of command got to hear about the effect of the ceasefire, whereby their wrath ensured a return to hostilities.[11]
There was no peace treaty signed during theChristmas truce,and the war resumed after a few days.
Karachi Agreement
editTheKarachi Agreementof 1949 was signed by the military representatives of India and Pakistan, supervised by theUnited Nations Commission for India and Pakistan,establishing a cease-fire line inKashmirfollowing theIndo-Pakistani War of 1947.[12]
Korean War
editOn November 29, 1952, the USpresident-elect,Dwight D. Eisenhower,went to Korea to see how to end theKorean War.With theUN's acceptance ofIndia's proposed armistice, the ceasefire between theUN Commandon the one side and theKorean People's Army(KPA) and thePeople's Volunteer Army(PVA) on the other took hold at approximately the38th parallel north.These parties signed theKorean Armistice Agreementon July 27, 1953[13][14]but South Korean PresidentSyngman Rhee,who attacked the ceasefire proceedings, did not.[15]Upon agreeing to the ceasefire which called upon the governments of South Korea, theUnited States,North Korea andChinato participate in continued peace talks, the principalbelligerentsof the war established theKorean Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) and it has since been patrolled by the jointRepublic of Korea Army,US, and UN Command on the one side and the KPA on the other. The war is considered to have ended at that point even though there still is no peace treaty.
Vietnam War
editOn New Years Day, 1968,Pope Paul VIconvincedSouth Vietnamand the United States to declare a 24-hour-truce. However, theViet CongandNorth Vietnamdid not adhere to the truce, and ambushed the 2nd Battalion,Republic of Vietnam Marine Division,10 minutes after midnight inMỹ Tho.The Viet Cong would also attack aU.S. Armyfire support base nearSaigon,causing more casualties.[16]
On January 15, 1973, US PresidentRichard Nixonordered a ceasefire of the aerial bombings inNorth Vietnam.The decision came afterHenry Kissinger,theNational Security Advisorto the President, returned toWashington, D.C.,fromParis, France,with a draft peace proposal. Combat missions continued inSouth Vietnam.By January 27, 1973, all parties of theVietnam Warsigned a ceasefire as a prelude to theParis Peace Accord.
Gulf War
editAfterIraqwas driven out ofKuwaitby US-led coalition forces duringOperation Desert Storm,Iraq and theUN Security Councilsigned a ceasefire agreement on March 3, 1991.[17]Subsequently, throughout the 1990s, theU.N. Security Councilpassed numerous resolutions calling for Iraq to disarm itsweapons of mass destructionunconditionally and immediately. Because no peace treaty was signed after theGulf War,the war still remained in effect, including an alleged assassination attempt of former US PresidentGeorge H. W. Bushby Iraqi agents while on a visit to Kuwait;[citation needed]Iraq being bombed in June 1993as a response, Iraqi forces firing on coalition aircraft patrolling theIraqi no-fly zones,US PresidentBill Clinton's bombing of Baghdad in 1998 duringOperation Desert Fox,and an earlier 1996 bombing of Iraq by the US duringOperation Desert Strike.The war remained in effect until 2003, when US and UK forcesinvaded Iraqand toppledSaddam Hussein's regime from power.
Kashmir conflict
editA UN-mediated ceasefire was agreed betweenIndiaandPakistan,on 1 January 1949, ending theIndo-Pakistani War of 1947(also called the 1947 Kashmir War). Fighting broke out between the two newly independent countries inKashmirin October 1947, with India intervening on behalf of the princely ruler of Kashmir, who had joined India, and Pakistan supporting the rebels. The fighting was limited to Kashmir, but, apprehensive that it might develop into a full-scale international war, India referred the matter to the UN Security Council under Article 35 of the UN Charter, which addresses situations "likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace". The Security Council set up the dedicatedUnited Nations Commission for India and Pakistan,which mediated for an entire year as the fighting continued. After several UN resolutions outlining a procedure for resolving the dispute via aplebiscite,a ceasefire agreement was reached between the countries towards the end of December 1948, which came into effect in the New Year. The Security Council set up theUnited Nations Military Observer Group for India and Pakistan(UNMOGIP) to monitor the ceasefire line.[18]India declared a ceasefire in Kashmir Valley during Ramadan in 2018.[19]
Northern Ireland
editTheIrish Republican Armyheld several Christmas ceasefires (usually referred to as truces) during the Northern Ireland conflict.[20][21]
Israeli–Palestinian conflict
edit
An example of a ceasefire in theIsraeli–Palestinian conflictwas announced betweenIsraeland thePalestinian National Authorityon February 8, 2005. When announced, chiefPalestiniannegotiatorSaeb Erekatpublicly defined the ceasefire as follows: "We have agreed that today PresidentMahmoud Abbaswill declare a full cessation of violence against Israelis anywhere and Prime MinisterAriel Sharonwill declare a full cessation of violence and military activities against Palestinians anywhere. "[22] On November 21, 2023, Qatar announced that they had negotiated a truce between Israel and Hamas would pauseGaza fighting,allow for the release of some hostages and bring more aid to Palestinian civilians. As part of the deal, 50 Hamas held hostages are to be released while Israel will release 150 Palestinian prisoners.[23]
Syrian Civil War
editSeveral attempts have been made to broker ceasefires in theSyrian Civil War.[24][25][26]
2020 global ceasefire
editThe 2020 global ceasefire was a response to a formal appeal by United Nations Secretary-GeneralAntónio Manuel de Oliveira Guterreson March 23 for a global ceasefire as part of the United Nations' response to the COVID-19coronavirus pandemic.On 24 June 2020, 170 UN Member States and Observers signed a non-binding statement in support of the appeal, rising to 172 on 25 June 2020, and on 1 July 2020, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding a general and immediate global cessation of hostilities for at least 90 days.[27][28]
See also
editReferences
edit- ^abcdeClayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri Aas; Strand, Håvard (2023)."Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda".Journal of Conflict Resolution.67(7–8): 1279–1295.doi:10.1177/00220027221128300.hdl:20.500.11850/576568.ISSN0022-0027.S2CID252793375.
- ^abcForster, Robert A. (2019), "Ceasefires", in Romaniuk, Scott; Thapa, Manish; Marton, Péter (eds.),The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies,Springer, pp. 1–8,doi:10.1007/978-3-319-74336-3_8-2,ISBN978-3-319-74336-3,S2CID239326729
- ^abcFortna, Virginia Page (2004).Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace.Princeton University Press.ISBN978-0-691-18795-2.OCLC1044838807.
- ^"Ceasefire".Oxford Public International Law.doi:10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690(inactive 2024-05-05).Retrieved2024-03-14.
{{cite web}}:CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of May 2024 (link) - ^Sosnowski, Marika (2023).Redefining Ceasefires: Wartime Order and Statebuilding in Syria.Cambridge University Press.doi:10.1017/9781009347204.ISBN978-1-009-34722-8.
- ^Clayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri A.; Strand, Håvard (2022)."Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict".Journal of Conflict Resolution.67(7–8): 1296–1324.doi:10.1177/00220027221129195.hdl:10852/99393.ISSN0022-0027.S2CID252739885.
- ^"How the War in Ukraine Might End".The New Yorker.2022-09-29.
- ^Bailey, Sydney D. (1977). "Cease-Fires, Truces, and Armistices in the Practice of the UN Security Council".The American Journal of International Law.71(3): 461–473.doi:10.2307/2200012.ISSN0002-9300.JSTOR2200012.S2CID147435735.
- ^Evans, Abigail; Bartollas, Clemens; Graham, Gordon; Henke, Kenneth (2011).The Long Shadow of Emile Cailliet: Faith, Philosophy, and Theological Education.Eugene, OR: Wipf and Stock Publishers.ISBN9781610971126.
- ^Brockell, Gillian (December 24, 2017)."The Christmas Truce miracle: Soldiers put down their guns to sing carols and drink wine".Washington Post.Retrieved2018-08-27.
- ^Wilson, Ross (2016).Cultural Heritage of the Great War in Britain.Oxon: Routledge. p. 74.ISBN9781409445739.
- ^Wirsing, Robert (1998).War Or Peace on the Line of Control?: The India-Pakistan Dispute Over Kashmir Turns Fifty.IBRU. p. 9.ISBN978-1-897643-31-0.
- ^"Document for July 27th: Armistice Agreement for the Restoration of the South Korean State".Archivedfrom the original on 19 October 2012.Retrieved13 December2012.
- ^"Korean War Armistice Agreement".FindLaw.Canadaand United States:Thomson Reuters.27 July 1953. Archived fromthe originalon 5 March 2014.Retrieved5 March2014.
- ^Kollontai, Ms Pauline; Kim, Professor Sebastian C. H.; Hoyland, Revd Greg (2013-05-28).Peace and Reconciliation: In Search of Shared Identity.Ashgate Publishing, Ltd. p. 111.ISBN978-1-4094-7798-3.
- ^Kurlansky, Mark. (2004).1968: the year that rocked the world(1st ed.). New York: Ballantine. pp. 3, 13.ISBN0-345-45581-9.OCLC53929433.
- ^"BBC News | Saddam's Iraq: Key events".news.bbc.co.uk.Archived fromthe originalon 2003-12-17.Retrieved2020-08-01.
- ^Schofield, Victoria(2003) [First published in 2000],Kashmir in Conflict,London and New York: I. B. Taurus & Co, pp. 68–69,ISBN978-1860648984
- ^"India declares ceasefire in Kashmir - Global Village Space".Global Village Space.2018-05-17.Retrieved2018-05-18.
- ^"I.R.A. Provisionals Announce a Christmas Truce".The New York Times.21 December 1974.
- ^"IRA Declares Usual Christmas Truce".Los Angeles Times.24 December 1993.
- ^Wedeman, Ben; Raz, Guy; Koppel, Andrea (2005-02-07)."Mideast cease-fire expected Tuesday".CNN. Archived fromthe originalon 2005-02-08.Retrieved2007-01-03.
- ^Federman, Josef; Jeffrey, Jack (21 November 2023)."Qatar announces Israel-Hamas truce-for-hostages deal that would pause Gaza fighting, bring more aid".AP News.Associated Press.Retrieved22 November2023.
- ^Lundgren, Magnus (2016)."Mediation in Syria: initiatives, strategies, and obstacles, 2011–2016".Contemporary Security Policy.37(2): 273–288.doi:10.1080/13523260.2016.1192377.S2CID156447200.
- ^Karakus, Dogukan Cansin; Svensson, Isak (2020-05-18)."Between the Bombs: Exploring Partial Ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War, 2011–2017".Terrorism and Political Violence.32(4): 681–700.doi:10.1080/09546553.2017.1393416.ISSN0954-6553.S2CID149165856.
- ^Lundgren, Magnus; Svensson, Isak; Karakus, Dogukan Cansin (2020-05-18)."Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War".Journal of Conflict Resolution.67(7–8): 1350–1375.doi:10.1177/00220027221148655.
- ^"S/RES/2532(2020) - E - S/RES/2532(2020)".undocs.org.Retrieved2020-08-01.
- ^"Stalled Security Council resolution adopted, backing UN's global humanitarian ceasefire call".UN News.2020-07-01.Retrieved2020-08-01.
Further reading
edit- Clayton Govinda, Nygård Håvard Mokleiv, Strand Håvard, Rustad Siri Aas, Wiehler Claudia, Sagård Tora, Landsverk Peder, Ryland Reidun, Sticher Valerie, Wink Emma, Bara Corrine. 2022. “Introducing the Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset.”Journal of Conflict Resolution.
- Akebo, Malin. (2016).Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes: A Comparative Study.Routledge.
- Colletta, Nat. (2011). "Mediating ceasefires and cessations of hostilities agreements in the framework of peace processes." InPeacemaking: From Practice to Theory.Praeger, 135–147.
- Forster, Robert A. (2019).Ceasefires.InThe Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies.Palgrave.
- Fortna, Virginia Page. (2004).Peace Time: Cease-fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace.Princeton University Press.
- Williams, R., Gustafson, D., Gent, S., & Crescenzi, M. (2021). "A latent variable approach to measuring and explaining peace agreement strength."Political Science Research and Methods,9(1), 89–105.
