Social cycle theory

"Cyclical pattern" redirects here. For other uses, seeCycle.

Social cycle theoriesare among the earliestsocial theoriesinsociology.Unlike the theory ofsocial evolutionism,which views theevolution of societyandhuman historyas progressing in some new, unique direction(s), sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles. Such a theory does not necessarily imply that there cannot be anysocial progress.In the early theory ofSima Qianand the more recent theories of long-term ( "secular" ) political-demographic cyclesas well as in the Varnic theory ofP. R. Sarkar,an explicit accounting is made of social progress.

Historical forerunners

Interpretation ofhistoryas repeating cycles of Dark and Golden Ages was a common belief among ancient cultures.Kyklos(Ancient Greek:κύκλος[kýklos],"cycle" ) is a term used by some classicalGreekauthors to describe what they considered as the cycle ofgovernmentsin a society. It was roughly based on the history of Greekcity-statesin the same period. The concept of thekyklosis first elaborated byPlato,Aristotle,and most extensivelyPolybius.They all came up with their own interpretation of the cycle, and possible solutions to break the cycle, since they thought the cycle to be harmful. Later writers such asCiceroandMachiavellicommented on thekyklos.The more limited cyclical view of history defined as repeating cycles of events was put forward in the academic world in the 19th century inhistoriosophy(a branch ofhistoriography) and is a concept that falls under the category ofsociology.However,Polybius,Ibn Khaldun(seeAsabiyyah), andGiambattista Vicocan be seen as precursors of this analysis. Thesaeculumwas identified in Roman times. In recent times, P. R. Sarkar in his social cycle theory has used this idea to elaborate his interpretation of history.

Plato

Further information:Plato's five regimes

Platodescribes his cycle of governments in his workRepublic,Book VIII and IX.He distinguishesfive forms of government:aristocracy,timocracy,oligarchy,democracy,andtyranny,and writes that governments devolve respectively in this order from aristocracy into tyranny. Plato's cycle of governments is linked with his anthropology of the rulers that come with each form of government. This philosophy is intertwined with the way the cycle of governments plays out.An aristocracy is ruled by aristocratic people whose rule is guided by their rationality. The decline of aristrocracy into timocracy happens when people who are less qualified to rule come to power. Their rule and decision-making is guided by honor. Timocracy devolves into oligarchy as soon as those rulers act in pursuit of wealth; oligarchy devolves into democracy when the rulers act on behalf of freedom; and lastly, democracy devolves into tyranny if rulers mainly seek power. Plato believes that having aphilosopher king,and thus having an aristocratic form of government is the most desirable.

Polybius

According to Polybius, who has the most fully developed version of thekyklos,it rotates through the three basic forms of government:democracy,aristocracy,andmonarchy,and the three degenerate forms of each of these governments:ochlocracy,oligarchy,andtyranny.Originally society is in ochlocracy but the strongest figure emerges and sets up a monarchy. The monarch's descendants, who lack virtue because of their family's power, becomedespotsand the monarchy degenerates into a tyranny. Because of the excesses of the ruler the tyranny is overthrown by the leading citizens of the state who set up an aristocracy. They too quickly forget about virtue and the state becomes an oligarchy. These oligarchs are overthrown by the people who set up a democracy. Democracy soon becomes corrupt and degenerates into ochlocracy, beginning the cycle anew. Polybius's concept of the cycle of governments is calledanacyclosis.Polybius, in contrast to Aristotle, focuses on the idea ofmixed government:the idea that the ideal government is one that blends elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy. Aristotle mentions this notion but pays little attention to it. Polybius saw theRoman Republicas the embodiment of this mixed constitution, and this would explain why the Roman Republic was so powerful and why it would remain stable for a longer amount of time.Polybius' full description can be found in Book VI of hisHistories.

Cicero

Cicerodescribes anacyclosis in his philosophical workDe re publica.His version of the anacyclosis is heavily inspired by Polybius' writings. Cicero argues, contrary to Polybius, that the Roman state can prevail and will not succumb to the harmful cycle despite its mixed government, as long as the Roman Republic will return to its ancient virtues (mos maiorum).

Machiavelli

Machiavelli,writing during theRenaissance,appears to have adopted Polybius' version of the cycle. Machiavelli's adoption of anacyclosis can be seen in Book I, Chapter II of hisDiscourses on Livy.Although Machiavelli adopts the idea of the circular structure in which types of governments alternate, he does not accept Polybius' idea that the cycle naturally devolves through the exact same pattern of governments.

19th and 20th century theories

Thomas Carlyleconceived of history as though it were aphoenix,growing and dying in stages akin to the seasons. He saw theFrench Revolutionas the ashes or winter of Europeancivilisation,and that it would necessarily build out of the rubble.RussianphilosopherNikolai DanilewskiinRossiia i Evropa(1869), differentiated between various smaller civilizations (Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greek, Roman, German, and Slav, among others). He wrote that each civilization has a life cycle, and by the end of the 19th century the Roman-German civilization was in decline, while the Slav civilization was approaching itsGolden Age.A similar theory was put forward byOswald Spenglerwho in hisDer Untergang des Abendlandes(1918) also argued that theWestern civilizationhad entered its final phase of development and its decline was inevitable.

The first social cycle theory in sociology was created byItaliansociologist and economistVilfredo Paretoin hisTrattato di Sociologia Generale(1916). He centered his theory on the concept of anelitesocial class,which he divided into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'. In his view of society, thepowerconstantly passes from the 'foxes' to the 'lions' and vice versa.

Sociological cycle theory was also developed byPitirim A. Sorokinin hisSocial and Cultural Dynamics(1937, 1943). He classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be ideational (reality is spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilization dedicated to technological progress and prophesied its fall into decadence and the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era.

Alexandre Deulofeudeveloped a mathematical model of social cycles that he claimed fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations and empires go through cycles in his bookMathematics of History(inCatalan,published in 1951). He claims that each civilization passes through a minimum of three 1700-year cycles. As part of civilizations, empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He also stated that by knowing the nature of these cycles, it could be possible to modify the cycles in such a way that change could be peaceful instead of leading to war. Deulofeu believed he had found the origin ofRomanesque art,during the 9th century, in an area betweenEmpordàandRoussillon,which he argued was the cradle of the second cycle of western European civilization.

Literary expressions

Much ofpost-apocalyptic fictiondepicts various kinds of cyclical history, with depictions of civilization collapsing and being slowly built up again to collapse again and so on.

An early example isAnatole France's 1908satiricalnovelPenguin Island(French:L'Île des Pingouins) which traces the history of Penguinia—a thinly disguised analogue of France—from medieval times to the modern times and into a future of a monstrous super-city—which eventually collapses. This is followed by a renewed Feudalism and agrarian society, and a gradual building up of increasingly advanced civilization—culminating with a new monstrous super-city which would eventually collapse again, and so on.

A later example isWalter M. Miller Jr.'sA Canticle for Leibowitz,which begins in the aftermath of a devastatingnuclear war,with theCatholic Churchseeking to preserve a remnant of old texts (as it did in the historical Early Middle Ages), and ends with a new civilization, built up over two thousand years, once again destroying itself in a nuclear war—and a new group of Catholic clergy yet again setting out to preserve a remnant of civilized knowledge.

In the future depicted inOctober the First Is Too Late,a 1966science fictionnovel byastrophysicistFred Hoyle,the protagonists fly over where they expected to see the United States, but see no sign of urban civilization. At first assuming they were in the pre-1750 past, they later find it was a future time. Humanity is doomed to go through repeated cycles of industrialization, overpopulation, collapse—followed by rebuilding, and then again industrialization, overpopulation and collapse and so on, over and over again. In the far future, a civilization which is aware of this history no longer wants progress.

Contemporary theories

One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of the dynamics of complexagrarian systems.

The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history ofEuropeandChina,and inchiefdomlevel societies worldwide has been known for quite a long time,and already in the 1980s more or less developedmathematical modelsof demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "dynastic cycles") (Usher 1989). At the momentthere are a considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004;Turchin2003, 2005a;Korotayevet al. 2006).

Long cycle theory

George Modelski,who presented his ideas in the bookLong Cycles in World Politics(1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. Long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.

Long cycles, or long waves, offer perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused withSimon Kuznets' idea oflong-cycles,or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.

The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands."Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.

Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system isanarchy.Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and largerglobal system cycle.They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants", anarchy does not play a role; long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.

Modelski used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.

Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economicKondratieff Waves(or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.

In 1988,Joshua S Goldsteinadvanced the concept of the political midlife crisis in his book on "Long Cycle Theory",Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age,which offers four examples of the process:

• TheBritish Empireand theCrimean War(1853–1856): A century after Britain's successful launch of theIndustrial Revolution,and following the subsequent British railway boom of 1815–1853, Britain, in theCrimean War,attacked theRussian Empire,which was perceived as a threat toBritish Indiaand to eastern Mediterranean trade routes to India. The Crimean War highlighted the poor state of theBritish Army,which were then addressed, and Britain concentrated on colonial expansion and took no further part in European wars until the outbreak ofWorld War Iin 1914.
• TheGerman EmpireandWorld War I(1914–1918): Under ChancellorOtto von Bismarck,Germany had been unified between 1864 and 1871, and then had seen 40 years' rapid industrial, military, and colonial expansion. In 1914 theSchlieffen Planfor conqueringFrancein eight weeks was to have been followed by the subjugation of theRussian Empire,leaving Germany the master ofMitteleuropa(Central Europe). In the event, France,Britain,Russia, and theUnited Statesfought Germany to a standstill, to defeat, and to a humiliating peace settlement atVersailles(1919) and the establishment of Germany's unstableWeimar Republic(1919–1933), in a prelude toWorld War II.
• TheSoviet Unionand theCuban Missile Crisis(1962): The Soviet Union had industrialised rapidly underJoseph Stalinand, following World War II, had become a rival nuclearsuperpowerto theUnited States.In 1962 Soviet PremierNikita Khrushchev,intent on securing strategic parity with the United States, covertly, with the support ofFidel Castro,shipped nuclear missiles to Castro'sCuba,70 miles from the US state ofFlorida.US PresidentJohn F. Kennedyblockaded (the term "quarantined" being used because a blockade is an act of war), the island of Cuba and negotiated the Soviet missiles' removal from Cuba (in exchange for the subsequent removal of US missiles from Turkey).
• TheUnited Statesand theVietnam War(1955–1975): During World War II and the ensuing postwar period, the United States had greatly expanded its military capacities andindustries.After France, supported financially by the US, had been defeated in Vietnam in 1954 and that country had been temporarily split intoNorthandSouth Vietnamunder the 1954Geneva Accords;and when war had broken out between the North and South following South Vietnam PresidentNgo Dinh Diem's refusal to permit all-Vietnam elections in 1956 as stipulated in the Geneva Accords, the ideologicallyanti-communistUnited States supported South Vietnam with materiel in aCold Warproxy warand by degrees allowed itself to be drawn into South Vietnam's losing struggle against communist North Vietnam and theViet Congacting in South Vietnam. Ultimately, following the defeat of South Vietnam and the United States, the US's governing belief that South Vietnam's defeat would result in all of remainingMainland Southeast Asia"going communist" (as proclaimed by the US's "domino theory"), proved erroneous.

Kondratiev waves

Ineconomics,Kondratiev waves(also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modernworld economy.It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, thecyclesconsist of alternating intervals of high sectoralgrowthand intervals of relatively slow growth.

Such theories are dismissed by most economists on the basis ofeconometricanalysis which has found that recessions are essentially random events, and the probability of a recession does not show any kind of pattern across time.Despite frequent use of the termbusiness cyclesto refer to changes in an economy around itstrend line,the phrase is considered amisnomer.It is widely agreed that fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit any kind of predictable repetition over time, and the appearance of cycles is a result ofpareidolia.

Secular cycles theory

Recently the most important contributions to the development of themathematicalmodels of long-term ( "secular" ) sociodemographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov,Peter Turchin,Andrey Korotayev,and Sergey Malkov.What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that sociodemographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems (and not a specifically Chinese or European phenomenon).

The basic logic of these models is as follows:

• After the population reaches the ceiling of thecarrying capacityof land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.
• The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity offamines,growing rebellions etc.
• As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and thesystemexperienced ademographiccollapse (aMalthusian catastrophe), when increasingly severe famines,epidemics,increasing internalwarfareand other disasters led to a considerable decline ofpopulation.
• As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, thepopulation growthresumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.

It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.

The models have two main phases, each with two subphases.

• Integrative phase
  • Expansion (growth)
  • Stagflation (compression)
• Disintegrative phase
  • Crisis phase (state breakdown)
  • Depression / intercycle

An intercycle is where a functioning state collapses and takes some time to rebuild.

Characteristic features of structural-demographic phases

Feature	Integrative phase		Disintegrative phase
	Expansion phase (growth)	Stagflation phase (compression)	Crisis phase (state breakdown)	Depression / Intercycle
Population	Increases	Slow increase	Decreases	Slow decrease
Elites	Low population and consumption	Increasing population and competition and consumption	High population, conflicts, high inequality	Reduction of population, downward mobility, reduced consumption
State strength and collective solidarity	Increasing	High but decreasing	Collapse	Attempts at rebuilding
Sociopolitical instability	Low	Increasing	High	Decreasing

Disintegrative phases typically do not have continuous disorder, but instead periods of strife alternating with relatively peaceful periods. This alternation typically has a period of about two human generation times (40 – 60 years), and Turchin calls it a "fathers and sons" cycle.

Fourth Turning theory

TheStrauss–Howe generational theory,also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, which was created by authorsWilliam StraussandNeil Howe,describes a theorized recurringgenerationcycle inAmerican history.According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. Turnings tend to last around 20–22 years. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum"(a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although somesaeculahave lasted longer). The theory states that after every saeculum, acrisisrecurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions andcommunitarianvalues are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy andindividualism,which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

Schlesinger liberal-conservative cycles of United States history

Thecyclical theory (United States history)is a theory of US history developed byArthur M. Schlesinger Sr.andArthur M. Schlesinger Jr.It states that US history alternates between two kinds of phases:

• Liberal, increasing democracy, public purpose, human rights, concern with the wrongs of the many
• Conservative, containing democracy, private interest, property rights, concern with the rights of the few

Each kind of phase generates the other. Liberal phases generate conservative phases from activism burnout, and conservative phases generate liberal phases from accumulation of unsolved problems.

Huntington's creedal-passion episodes of United States history

HistorianSamuel P. Huntingtonhas proposed that American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion" roughly every 60 years.These are efforts to bring American government closer to the "American creed" of being "egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups."

United States Party Systems

The United States has had sixparty systemsover its history. Each one is a characteristic platform and set of constituencies of each of the two major parties. A new party system emerges from a burst of reform, and in some cases, the disintegration of a party in the previous system (1st: Federalist, 2nd: Whig).

Skowronek United States Regimes and Presidency Types

Political scientistStephen Skowronekhas proposed that American history has gone through several regimes, with four main types of presidencies.Each regime has a dominant party and an opposition party. The President involved in starting it is a "reconstructive" one, and that President's successors in the dominant party are "articulating" ones. However, opposition-party Presidents are often elected, "preemptive" ones. A regime ends with having a President or two from its dominant party, a "disjunctive" President.

Klingberg cycles of United States foreign policy

Frank Klingberg has proposed a cyclic theory of US foreign policy.It states that the US alternates between extroverted phases, phases involving military adventures, challenging other nations, and anne xing territory, and introverted phases, phases with the absence of these activities.

See also

• Cyclic model(cosmology)
• Historic recurrence
• List of cycles
• Revolutionary wave
• Societal collapse
• State collapse

Further reading

• Parvini, N. (2023).The Prophets of Doom.Andrews UK Limited.
• Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. (1994) Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China.Journal of Population Economics7: 351–78.
• Alexandre Deulofeu(1967) La Matemàtica de la Història (Mathematics of History), Figueres, Editorial Emporitana, 1967.
• Fischer, David Hackett (1996). The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.ISBN019512121Xfor 1999 paperback reprint.
• Johan GaltungandSohail Inayatullah,Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change, Praeger Publishers, 1997,ISBN0-275-95755-1.
• Sohail Inayatullah,Understanding P. R. Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge, Brill Academic Publishers, 2002,ISBN90-04-12842-5.
• Korotayev A.,Malkov A., &Khaltourina D.(2006)Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.Moscow: URSS.ISBN5-484-00559-0.Chapter 4.
• Korotayev, A.& Khaltourina D. (2006)Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.Moscow: URSS.ISBN5-484-00560-4
• Nefedov, S. A. (2003).A Theory of Demographic Cycles and the Social Evolution of Ancient and Medieval Oriental Societies.Oriens3: 5–22.
• Nefedov, S. A. (2004). A Model of Demographic Cycles in Traditional Societies: The Case of Ancient China.Social Evolution & History3(1): 69–80.
• Postan, M. M.(1973).Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar(1967). Human Society-2, Ananda Marga Publications, Anandanagar, P.O. Baglata, Dist. Purulia, West Bengal, India.
• Tainter, Joseph(1988).The Collapse of Complex Civilizations.Cambridge University Press.
• Turchin, P.(2003)Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall.Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Turchin, P.(2005). Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States.Structure & Dynamics1Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States.
• Turchin, P.,et al., eds. (2007).History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies.Moscow: KomKniga.ISBN5-484-01002-0
• Trends and Cycles,Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2014.
• Usher, D. (1989). The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State.The American Economic Review79: 1031–44.
• Weiss, Volkmar(2007). "The population cycle drives human history - from a eugenic phase into a dysgenic phase and eventual collapse."The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies32: 327-358.
• Weiss, Volkmar(2020). IQ Means Inequality: The Population Cycle that Drives Human History. KDP.ISBN979-8608184406.

External links

• Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
• Complex historical dynamics of crisis: the case of Byzantium (with an extensive discussion of the concept of secular cycles from the point of view of medieval studies)