General elections were held inJapanon 16 December 2012. Voters gave theLiberal Democratic Partyalandslide victory,ejecting theDemocratic Partyfrom power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.
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All 480 seats in theHouse of Representatives 241 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 59.32% (9.87pp; Const. votes) 59.31% (9.88pp; PR votes) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Districts and PR districtsshaded according to winners' vote strength | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Voting took place in allrepresentatives' constituenciesofJapanincluding proportional blocks, in order to appointMembers of Dietto seats in theHouse of Representatives,thelower houseof theNational Diet of Japan.
In July 2012, it was reported that the deputy prime ministerKatsuya Okadahad approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the House of Representatives and holding the election in January 2013.[1]An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax.[2]Some right-wing observers asserted that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay theJapanese public debt,[3][4][5][6][7]the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats.[8][9]
Background
editThe LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the2009 election,the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of theJapanese election system,DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enablingYukio Hatoyamato becomeprime minister.Since then, Japan had had two other prime ministers,Naoto KanandYoshihiko Noda.On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time, citing the lack of funds to carry on governmental functions and the need for an emergency budget.
Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties.[10]The former Governor of TokyoShintarō Ishiharaannounced the renaming and reformation of theSunrise Partyon 14 November 2012; Ishihara co-lead the party withTakeo Hiranuma.[11]On 17 November 2012 Mayor of OsakaTōru Hashimotoand former Tokyo GovernorShintarō Ishiharaannounced the merger of theJapan Restoration Partyand theSunrise Partyas a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election.[12]It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo.[13]
On 23 November, Mayor of NagoyaTakashi Kawamura,former state ministerShizuka Kameiand former farm ministerMasahiko Yamadajoined forces together to launchTax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Partyas another "third pole" national political party.[14]On 28 November, the Governor of ShigaYukiko KadainŌtsuannounced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and gender equality focused party known as theTomorrow Party of Japan,becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrently, the president of DPJ splinter groupPeople's Life First,Ichirō Ozawa,dissolved the party, merging it into the Tomorrow Party.Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear PartyandJapan Future Partyattempted to merge with the aim of further countering the major and pro-nuclear parties.[15]On 27 NovemberTax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Partyofficially announced a merger withTomorrow,with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying, "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same."[16]
Opinion polls
editGraph of poll results since 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Democratic Liberal Democratic New Komeito Communist Social Democratic Your Party Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP No Party
Source:NHK
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Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Party polling for the 180 proportional seats
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Undecided or declined | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DPJ | LDP | JRP | PLF ↓ TPJ |
NKP | JCP | YP | SDP | |||
Asahi Shimbun | 15–16 November 2012 | 44% | 16% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 16–17 November 2012 | 43% | 13% | 22% | 13% | — | — | — | — | — |
Asahi Shimbun | 17–18 November 2012 | 46% | 15% | 23% | 16% | — | 4% | — | — | — |
Kyodo News | 17–18 November 2012 | 43% | 10.8% | 23% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 23–25 November 2012 | — | 10% | 25% | 14% | 2% | 6% | — | 2% | — |
Kyodo News[1] | 24–25 November 2012 | 45% | 8.4% | 18.7% | 10.3% | 2% | 4% | — | 3% | — |
Asahi Shimbun | 24–25 November 2012 | 41% | 13% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 4% | — | 3% | — |
Nikkei Business Daily | 28 November 2012 | — | 13% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 4% | — | — | — |
Kyodo News | 1–2 December 2012 | — | 9.3% | 18.4% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | — | — | — |
Asahi Shimbun | 1–2 December 2012 | 41% | 15% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 30 Nov.-2 Dec 2012 | — | 13% | 19% | 13% | 5% | — | — | 5% | — |
NHK | 7–9 December 2012 | — | 10% | 21% | 11% | — | — | — | — | — |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 7–9 December 2012 | — | 12% | 29% | 11% | 3% | — | — | — | — |
Asahi Shimbun | 8–9 December 2012 | 43% | 14% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | — |
Kyodo News | 12–13 December 2012 | 40% | 11% | 23% | 10% | — | — | — | — | — |
PM polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
Noda DPJ |
Abe LDP |
Ishihara JRP | ||
Kyodo News | 3–4 November 2012 | 29.3% | 40% | — |
Asahi Shimbun | 15–16 November 2012 | 31% | 33% | — |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 16–17 November 2012 | 31% | 37% | — |
Kyodo News | 17–18 November 2012 | 32.1% | 35% | — |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 23–25 November 2012 | 19% | 29% | 22% |
Kyodo News[2] | 24–25 November 2012 | 30% | 33.9% | — |
Yomiuri Shimbun | 30 Nov.-2 Dec 2012 | 21% | 28% | — |
NHK | 7–9 December 2012 | 19% | 28% | — |
Kyodo News | 8–9 December 2012 | 31% | 39% | — |
Kyodo News | 12–13 December 2012 | 29% | 34% | — |
Pre-election composition
editAs of official announcement (kōji[=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on 4 December[17]– note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (16 November), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.
↓ | |||
139 | 107 | 1 | 233 |
LDP & NKP | Other opposition | V | Incumbent government (DPJ & PNP) |
Results
editParty | Proportional | Constituency | Total seats | +/– | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | ||||
Liberal Democratic Party | 16,624,457 | 27.62 | 57 | 25,643,309 | 43.01 | 237 | 294 | +175 | |
Japan Restoration Party | 12,262,228 | 20.38 | 40 | 6,942,354 | 11.64 | 14 | 54 | New | |
Democratic Party of Japan | 9,628,653 | 16.00 | 30 | 13,598,774 | 22.81 | 27 | 57 | –251 | |
New Komeito Party | 7,116,474 | 11.83 | 22 | 885,881 | 1.49 | 9 | 31 | +10 | |
Your Party | 5,245,586 | 8.72 | 14 | 2,807,245 | 4.71 | 4 | 18 | +13 | |
Japanese Communist Party | 3,689,159 | 6.13 | 8 | 4,700,290 | 7.88 | 0 | 8 | –1 | |
Tomorrow Party of Japan | 3,423,915 | 5.69 | 7 | 2,992,366 | 5.02 | 2 | 9 | New | |
Social Democratic Party | 1,420,790 | 2.36 | 1 | 451,762 | 0.76 | 1 | 2 | –5 | |
New Party Daichi | 346,848 | 0.58 | 1 | 315,604 | 0.53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Happiness Realization Party | 216,150 | 0.36 | 0 | 65,983 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
New Renaissance Party | 134,781 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
People's New Party | 70,847 | 0.12 | 0 | 117,185 | 0.20 | 1 | 1 | –2 | |
New Party Nippon | 62,697 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | –1 | ||||
21st Century Japan Restoration Party | 17,711 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
Natural Party | 7,831 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
Ainu Party | 7,495 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
Euthanasia Party | 2,603 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
World Economic Community Party | 1,011 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Independents | 1,006,468 | 1.69 | 5 | 5 | –1 | ||||
Total | 60,179,888 | 100.00 | 180 | 59,626,569 | 100.00 | 300 | 480 | 0 | |
Valid votes | 60,179,888 | 97.60 | 59,626,568 | 96.69 | |||||
Invalid/blank votes | 1,480,081 | 2.40 | 2,040,970 | 3.31 | |||||
Total votes | 61,659,969 | 100.00 | 61,667,538 | 100.00 | |||||
Registered voters/turnout | 103,959,866 | 59.31 | 103,959,866 | 59.32 | |||||
Source:Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,CLEA |
By prefecture
editPrefecture | Total seats |
Seats won | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LDP | DPJ | JRP | NKP | YP | TPJ | SDP | PNP | Ind. | ||
Aichi | 15 | 13 | 2 | |||||||
Akita | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Aomori | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
Chiba | 13 | 11 | 2 | |||||||
Ehime | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
Fukui | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Fukuoka | 11 | 10 | 1 | |||||||
Fukushima | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
Gifu | 5 | 5 | ||||||||
Gunma | 5 | 5 | ||||||||
Hiroshima | 7 | 6 | 1 | |||||||
Hokkaido | 12 | 11 | 1 | |||||||
Hyōgo | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
Ibaraki | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Ishikawa | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Iwate | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
Kagawa | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
Kagoshima | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
Kanagawa | 18 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||
Kōchi | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Kumamoto | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
Kyoto | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
Mie | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
Miyagi | 6 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
Miyazaki | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Nagano | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
Nagasaki | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
Nara | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
Niigata | 6 | 6 | ||||||||
Ōita | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Okayama | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
Okinawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
Osaka | 19 | 3 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
Saga | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Saitama | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Shiga | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
Shimane | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
Shizuoka | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
Tochigi | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
Tokushima | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Tokyo | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Tottori | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
Toyama | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
Wakayama | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
Yamagata | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
Yamaguchi | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
Yamanashi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Total | 300 | 237 | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
By PR block
editPR block | Total seats |
Seats won | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LDP | JRP | DPJ | NKP | YP | JCP | TPJ | SDP | NPD | ||
Chūgoku | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||
Hokkaido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Hokuriku–Shinetsu | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Kinki | 29 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
Kyushu | 21 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Northern Kanto | 20 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
Shikoku | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Southern Kanto | 22 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
Tohoku | 14 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
Tokai | 21 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
Tokyo | 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
Total | 180 | 57 | 40 | 30 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
Representatives
editMembers of House of Representatives elected from single-seat constituency
editLDPDPJJRPKomeiJCPSDPPNPIndependent
Aftermath
editAs theLiberal Democratic Party(LDP) won 294 seats and their allies, theNew Komeito Party,31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule theHouse of Councillors.[18][19]The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behindChina.[18]Despite this landslide victory,Shinzo Abeacknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP.[20][21]
The election was an unmitigated disaster for theDemocratic Party,which lost three-quarters[22]of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of theCabinetlost their seats, the most ever in an election.Naoto Kan,who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well.[23]Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post–World War II era. As a result,Yoshihiko Nodaresigned from his post as party president.[22]
TheTomorrow Party of Japan,which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both theJapan Restoration PartyandYour Partyemerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left partiesSocial Democratic PartyandJapanese Communist Partycontinued to decline in strength and relevance.
Thevoter turnoutof 59.3% was the lowest since World War II.[22]
Reactions and analysis
editThe Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on theSenkaku Islands dispute,leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue.[19]Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that "[their] objective is to stop the challenge" fromChinawith regards to ownership of the islands.[24]The re-election of theliberal conservativeLDP raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours – China andSouth Korea– would become strained, given thepast visitsto theYasukuni Shrineby LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasis of Japan'swar crimescommitted during World War II and their intention to amend the country'spacifist constitutionto give more power to theSelf-Defense Forces.[25][26][27]Abe was also in favor of retaining nuclear energy in the country.[18]
In response to the election, theNikkei 225Index increased by 1%, while theyenfell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months.[28]Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months.[29]
United States PresidentBarack Obamaspoke to Abe via telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties.[30]
Voiding of election
editThis section needs to beupdated.(July 2023) |
On 25 March 2013, the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts.[31][32]The decision is expected to be appealed to theSupreme Court,[33]and, if upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results.[33]Foreign MinisterFumio Kishidasaid that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner.[32]
See also
editReferences
edit- ^"Okada eyes Jan. dissolution of lower house".Yomiuri Shimbun.Jiji Press. 30 July 2012.Retrieved14 November2012.
- ^Harlan, Chico (18 August 2012)."In Japan, new taxes levy political toll on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda".The Washington Post.Retrieved20 August2012.
- ^"Statistics Bureau Home Page/Chapter 4 Finance".Archived fromthe originalon 5 January 2013.Retrieved30 December2012.
- ^"Japan's Debt Challenge".
- ^Schuman, Michael (6 April 2011)."A hard look at Japan's debt problem".Time.Retrieved22 March2018.
- ^"Japan's national debt hits record 960 trillion yen - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun".Archived fromthe originalon 2 November 2012.Retrieved30 December2012.
- ^"Japan's Debt Sustains a Deflationary Depression".Bloomberg.
- ^"UPDATE: Kaieda elected president of shattered DPJ - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun".Archived fromthe originalon 31 December 2012.Retrieved28 December2012.
- ^"Archived copy"(PDF).Archived fromthe original(PDF)on 30 March 2012.Retrieved28 December2012.
{{cite web}}
:CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^"Japan's 'third pole".Japantimes.co.jp. 16 November 2012.Retrieved20 December2012.
- ^"New political party to be named 'Tachiagare Nippon' (Stand up Japan)"Archived5 June 2011 at theWayback Machine
- ^Japan Today/Associated Press, "Ishihara, Hashimoto announce 'third force' in Japanese politics",Japan Today,18 November 2012
- ^Johnston, Eric, "Nippon Ishin no Kai: Local but with national outlookArchived26 January 2016 at theWayback Machine",Japan Times,3 October 2012, p. 3
- ^"New Kawamura-led party joins election fray".Yomiuri Shimbun.24 November 2012.Retrieved28 November2012.
- ^"Shiga's Kada readies party; Ozawa joins".Japantimes.co.jp. 28 November 2012.Retrieved20 December2012.
- ^"2 Parties Merge With Japan Future".Ajw.asahi. Archived fromthe originalon 30 November 2012.Retrieved20 December2012.
- ^Yomiuri Shimbun:House of Representatives election 2012
- ^abcNagano, Yuriko; Demick, Barbara (16 December 2012)."Japan conservatives win landslide election victory".Los Angeles Times.Retrieved16 December2012.
- ^ab"Japan election: LDP's Shinzo Abe vows tough China line".BBC. 16 December 2012.Retrieved16 December2012.
- ^Fackler, Martin (16 December 2012)."Japan Election Returns Power to Old Guard".The New York Times.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^Yoshida, Reiji (17 December 2012)."LDP aware voters just punished DPJ".The Japan Times.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^abcBrinsley, John; Reynolds, Isabel (17 December 2012)."Two-Party Japan Democracy Undone in 39 Months as DPJ Falls".Bloomberg.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^"LDP flattens DPJ in bruising return to power".The Japan Times.17 December 2012.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^Ryall, Julian; Irvine, Chris (16 December 2012)."Japan election winner fires early warning to China".The Daily Telegraph.London.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^"'The Senkaku islands are our territory': Japanese nationalists return to power in a landslide victory ".National Post.Associated Press. 16 December 2012.Retrieved18 December2012.
- ^Dickie, Mure (16 December 2012)."Rightwing revival raises regional dilemmas".Financial Times.Retrieved18 December2012.(subscription required)
- ^Nakamoto, Michiyo; Dickie, Mure; Soble, Jonathan (16 December 2012)."LDP crushes rivals in Japanese poll".Financial Times.Retrieved18 December2012.(subscription required)
- ^"Japan elections: Shares rise and yen weakens on Abe win".BBC News.17 December 2012.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^"JGB 20-year yield hits 8-month high after Japan election".Reuters.16 December 2012.Retrieved17 December2012.
- ^"Readout of the President's Call with Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe of Japan".whitehouse.gov.17 December 2012.Retrieved18 December2012– viaNational Archives.
- ^Yomiuri: Court rules lower house poll invalid / Vote disparity in Hiroshima 'too wide' (english)
- ^ab"Hiroshima court rules Dec. election invalid over vote disparity".The Mainichi.Archived fromthe originalon 13 April 2013.Retrieved26 March2013.
- ^abSekiguchi, Toko (25 March 2013)."Hiroshima Court Rules Election Invalid".The Wall Street Journal.Retrieved22 March2018.