Wikipedia

2023 Manitoba general election

The2023 Manitoba general electionwas held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to theLegislative Assembly of Manitoba.The incumbentProgressive Conservative Party of Manitoba,led byPremier of ManitobaHeather Stefanson,had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the2016and2019 electionsunder the leadership ofBrian Pallister.TheNew Democratic Party of Manitoba,led byWab Kinew,formed amajority government,defeating the two-termProgressive Conservativegovernment. Following the election, Kinew became the firstFirst Nationsperson to become premier of a Canadian province.

2023 Manitoba general election
←2019 October 3, 2023 44th→
57 seats of theLegislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.29%Increase
First party Second party Third party
Ambassador David L. Cohen Meet with Wab Kinew F8VGCCiagAA9BS4 (cropped).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface(lost re-election)
Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before 18 35 3
Seats won 34 22 1
Seat change Increase16 Decrease13 Decrease2
Popular vote 221,695 203,350 51,634
Percentage 45.63% 41.86% 10.63%
Swing Increase14.25pp Decrease5.21pp Decrease3.85pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.
Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

Background

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Under Manitoba'sElections Act,a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1]As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2]The election was held underfirst-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premierBrian Pallisterannounced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of theProgressive Conservative Party of ManitobaelectedHeather Stefansonto succeed PremierKelvin Goertzen,who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4]During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

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Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, andparental rights in education.[5][6]Kinew led the NDP into the election.[7]The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget.[8][9]Dougald Lamontled the Liberals andJanine Gibsonled the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helpedWestJetlaunch direct flights fromLos AngelestoWinnipeg.[10]The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[10]They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[11]The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[12]They also promised a new debt relief system if elected.[13]The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of themurderedIndigenouswomen Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search.[5][15]Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[16]

Other campaign issues included crime,[17]agriculture[18]and affordable housing.[19]

Manitoba had not elected aminority governmentsince1988,so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[20]In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.[21]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
Candidates NDP PC Lib Grn KP Comm Ind Total
2 4 4 8
3 34 34 30 3 1 102
4 16 16 16 7 4 2 3 64
5 3 3 3 3 3 15
Total 57 57 49 13 5 5 3 189

Timeline

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2019

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2020

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2021

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  • July 15: Eileen Clarke resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
  • July 15Blaine Pedersenresigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development. He announces he will not seek re-election.
  • August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
  • September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
  • September 1:Kelvin Goertzenis chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to become its interim leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba.Rochelle Squiresis appointed as the Deputy Premier.
  • October 4: Brian Pallister resigns as the MLA for Fort Whyte, triggering a by-election.
  • October 30:Heather Stefansonis elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
  • November 2: Kelvin Goertzen resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
  • November 2: Heather Stefanson is sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first woman to hold the position.
  • December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) dies in office, triggering a by-election.
  • December 30:Ron Schuleris removed from cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure.Reg Helweris appointed as acting Minister of Infrastructure.

2022

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  • January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her cabinet.
  • March 22:Obby Khanis elected in the Fort Whyte by-election, replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly.
  • June 6:Scott Fieldingresigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • June 6:Alan Lagimodiereis named acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
  • June 7:Eric Redheadis elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
  • June 17: Scott Fielding resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • October 4: Ralph Eichler announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
  • December 16: Ian Wishart announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.

2023

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  • January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek re-election as MLA for Kildonan River East.
  • January 27:Cameron Friesenannounces his resignation as finance minister and MLA.
  • January 30:Cliff Cullenis appointed as finance minister and retains Deputy Premier role.
  • June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek re-election as MLA for Fort Richmond.

Legislature summary

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Elections to the43rd Manitoba Legislature[22]
Party[23] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissolution Elected % +/– Votes % Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 18 18 34 59.65 +16 221,695 45.63 +14.25
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 57 36 35 22 38.60 –14 203,350 41.86 −5.21
Liberal Dougald Lamont 49 3 3 1 1.75 –2 51,634 10.63 −3.85
Keystone Kevin Friesen 5 – – – – − 3,727 0.77 New
Green Janine Gibson 13 – – – – − 3,584 0.74 −5.63
Communist Andrew Taylor 5 – – – – − 461 0.09 +0.04
Independents 3 – – – – − 1,383 0.28 +0.10
Vacant 1
Valid votes 485,834 99.31
Blank and invalid votes 3,374 0.69
Total 189 57 57 – 489,208 100
Registered voters/turnout 884,864 55.29

Incumbents not running for re-election

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Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
Agassiz Eileen Clarke[24] Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
Brandon West Reg Helwer[25] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond Sarah Guillemard[26] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
Kildonan-River East Cathy Cox[27] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
Lakeside Ralph Eichler[28] Trevor King Trevor King
La Verendrye Dennis Smook[29] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
McPhillips Shannon Martin[30] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
Midland Blaine Pedersen[31] Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie Ian Wishart[32] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
Roblin Myrna Driedger[33] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods Cliff Cullen[34] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
Selkirk Alan Lagimodiere[35] Richard Perchotte Richard Perchotte

Candidates

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See also:List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[36][37][38]

Marginal seats

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Previous marginal seats

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Seats in the2019 general electionwhich were won by under 10%

Seat 2019 held 2023 winner
Party Margin Party Margin
McPhillips PC 1.00% NDP 3.02%
Transcona NDP 1.29% NDP 23.06%
Southdale PC 4.56% NDP 14.32%
Rossmere PC 8.06% NDP 8.29%
Dauphin PC 8.13% NDP 3.28%
Assiniboia PC 8.79% NDP 9.69%
Riel PC 9.36% NDP 16.61%
St. Vital NDP 9.58% NDP 30.79%
The Maples NDP 9.75% NDP 32.33%
Wolseley NDP 9.98% NDP 65.42%

New marginal seats

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Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

Seat 2019 held 2023 Winner
Party Margin Party Margin
Lagimodière PC 23.91% NDP 0.84%
Brandon West PC 24.59% PC 1.22%
Waverley PC 21.45% NDP 1.30%
Tuxedo PC 24.57% PC 2.65%
McPhillips PC 1.00% NDP 3.02%
Dauphin PC 8.13% NDP 3.28%
Selkirk PC 16.42% PC 4.98%
River Heights Lib 29.09% NDP 5.58%
Kirkfield Park PC 24.68% NDP 5.94%
Interlake-Gimli PC 25.55% PC 6.59%
Kildonan-River East PC 17.06% NDP 6.71%
Rossmere PC 8.06% NDP 8.29%
Dawson Trail PC 32.54% PC 8.90%
Roblin PC 37.19% PC 9.15%
Assiniboia PC 8.79% NDP 9.69%

Results

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Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election.[39]The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital.[40]Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings.[41]Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historicallysafe seatof Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.[42]

Results overview

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Popular vote
NDP
 
 45.63%
PC
 
 41.86%
Liberal
 
 10.63%
Others
 
 1.88%
Seats
NDP
 
 59.65%
PC
 
 38.60%
Liberal
 
 1.75%

Synopsis of results by riding

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2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[43]
Riding[a 1] 2019 Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes
Party Share Margin Comm Grn Ind KP Lib NDP PC Rejected Declined
Agassiz PC PC 63.85% 2,966 53.35% 694 311 1553 4519 18 36
Assiniboia PC NDP 50.02% 916 55.70% 913 4722 3806 15 28
Borderland PC PC 72.66% 3,558 50.45% 764 921 4479 4 18
Brandon East PC NDP 55.64% 1,067 46.99% 305 3758 2691 6 29
Brandon West PC PC 48.75% 89 51.68% 284 3725 3814 10 39
Burrows NDP NDP 46.04% 958 44.64% 2074 3032 1479 6 32
Concordia NDP NDP 64.52% 2,387 44.03% 481 4235 1848 12 36
Dauphin PC NDP 52.06% 386 60.30% 4887 4501 45 63
Dawson Trail PC PC 50.70% 543 56.86% 416 4049 4592 12 57
Elmwood NDP NDP 62.21% 2,745 49.32% 52 304 452 4933 2188 16 56
Flin Flon NDP NDP 76.25% 2,032 44.17% 2951 919 12 19
Fort Garry NDP NDP 58.82% 2,914 58.75% 237 1082 5319 2405 14 35
Fort Richmond PC NDP 54.45% 1,576 62.07% 848 4455 2879 12 34
Fort Rouge NDP NDP 70.57% 5,195 58.04% 102 1152 6761 1566 6 33
Fort Whyte PC PC 47.87% 1,229 64.37% 4213 1714 5442 12 33
Interlake-Gimli PC PC 49.59% 683 65.04% 393 374 4460 5143 13 66
Keewatinook NDP NDP 59.28% 762 39.14% 192 1820 1058 20 34
Kildonan-River East PC NDP 49.26% 729 63.18% 896 5574 4845 9 53
Kirkfield Park PC NDP 44.55% 661 63.76% 205 1696 5067 4406 13 29
La Verendrye PC PC 61.02% 3,032 55.54% 736 640 1554 4586 5 35
Lac du Bonnet PC PC 58.51% 2,223 60.77% 573 3447 5670 5 80
Lagimodière PC NDP 46.24% 112 64.05% 1041 5711 5599 9 45
Lakeside PC PC 61.68% 3,406 60.98% 1101 2682 6088 11 59
McPhillips PC NDP 47.30% 325 54.61% 886 4905 4580 23 70
Midland PC PC 69.38% 4,216 56.95% 737 2011 6227 25 50
Morden-Winkler PC PC 73.47% 3,535 44.32% 254 1600 5135 6 41
Notre Dame NDP NDP 75.58% 3,100 37.88% 82 105 319 3832 732 8 13
Point Douglas NDP NDP 73.31% 2,625 32.76% 484 3367 742 6 19
Portage la Prairie PC PC 59.61% 1,898 46.77% 367 301 1918 3816 21 35
Radisson PC NDP 52.31% 1,147 57.65% 621 5954 4807 15 39
Red River North PC PC 60.35% 2,033 60.47% 3893 5926 43 100
Riding Mountain PC PC 63.02% 2,749 57.42% 417 2895 5644 22 54
Riel PC NDP 54.65% 1,882 65.70% 834 6160 4278 26 62
River Heights Lib NDP 44.21% 643 67.59% 158 4404 5047 1807 8 34
Roblin PC PC 49.72% 1,120 62.54% 1189 4968 6088 12 63
Rossmere PC NDP 50.74% 801 60.42% 181 478 4863 4062 27 49
Seine River PC NDP 52.08% 1,407 63.64% 131 846 5381 3974 7 30
Selkirk PC PC 52.49% 470 56.29% 4493 4963 39 141
Southdale PC NDP 48.48% 1,647 64.72% 135 1861 5569 3922 7 33
Springfield-Ritchot PC PC 54.89% 1,925 58.30% 900 3827 5752 14 52
Spruce Woods PC PC 61.81% 3,050 56.54% 1145 1936 4986 22 41
St. Boniface Lib NDP 53.38% 2,172 60.06% 73 3413 5585 1391 9 52
St. James NDP NDP 64.82% 3,122 54.68% 631 5448 2326 14 24
St. Johns NDP NDP 60.76% 3,161 46.98% 1117 535 4262 1101 7 26
St. Vital NDP NDP 61.15% 2,751 56.88% 823 5288 2537 13 35
Steinbach PC PC 74.37% 4,647 48.14% 801 1221 5868 118 76
Swan River PC PC 62.91% 2,368 57.90% 397 2433 4801 7 126
The Maples NDP NDP 56.13% 2,325 50.62% 1472 3905 1580 4 46
The Pas-Kameesak NDP NDP 67.18% 2,016 53.52% 215 3522 1506 8 12
Thompson NDP NDP 68.28% 1,673 36.10% 127 2887 1214 8 11
Transcona NDP NDP 58.50% 2,063 51.40% 541 5235 3172 10 36
Turtle Mountain PC PC 55.05% 2,813 55.64% 1507 425 1993 4806 21 35
Tuxedo PC PC 40.21% 268 59.86% 2201 3700 3968 5 35
Tyndall Park Lib Lib 54.99% 2,122 49.75% 4030 1908 1390 2 29
Union Station NDP NDP 70.78% 2,797 42.21% 616 3714 917 23 34
Waverley PC NDP 44.10% 115 53.97% 201 1001 4063 3948 4 18
Wolseley NDP NDP 75.31% 5,721 53.77% 152 553 592 6582 861 13 22
  1. ^Sorted as per results summary.
  2. ^Including rejected and declined ballots.
= open seat
= turnout is above provincial average
= winning candidate was in previous Legislature
= other incumbents renominated

Results by riding

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Riding Outgoing MLA Elected MLA
Agassiz Eileen Clarke Jodie Byram
Assiniboia Scott Johnston Nellie Kennedy
Borderland Josh Guenter Josh Guenter
Brandon East Len Isleifson Glen Simard
Brandon West Reg Helwer Wayne Balcaen
Burrows Diljeet Brar Diljeet Brar
Concordia Matt Wiebe Matt Wiebe
Dauphin Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn
Dawson Trail Bob Lagassé Bob Lagassé
Elmwood Jim Maloway Jim Maloway
Flin Flon Tom Lindsey Tom Lindsey
Fort Garry Mark Wasyliw Mark Wasyliw
Fort Richmond Sarah Guillemard Jennifer Chen
Fort Rouge Wab Kinew Wab Kinew
Fort Whyte Obby Khan Obby Khan
Interlake-Gimli Derek Johnson Derek Johnson
Keewatinook Ian Bushie Ian Bushie
Kildonan-River East Cathy Cox Rachelle Schott
Kirkfield Park Kevin Klein Logan Oxenham
La Verendrye Dennis Smook Konrad Narth
Lac du Bonnet Wayne Ewasko Wayne Ewasko
Lagimodière Andrew Smith Tyler Blashko
Lakeside Ralph Eichler Trevor King
McPhillips Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan
Midland Blaine Pedersen Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler Cameron Friesen Carrie Hiebert
Notre Dame Malaya Marcelino Malaya Marcelino
Point Douglas Bernadette Smith Bernadette Smith
Portage la Prairie Ian Wishart Jeff Bereza
Radisson James Teitsma Jelynn Dela Cruz
Red River North Jeff Wharton Jeff Wharton
Riding Mountain Greg Nesbitt Greg Nesbitt
Riel Rochelle Squires Mike Moyes
River Heights Jon Gerrard Mike Moroz
Roblin Myrna Driedger Kathleen Cook
Rossmere Andrew Micklefield Tracy Schmidt
Seine River Janice Morley-Lecomte Billie Cross
Selkirk Alan Lagimodiere Richard Perchotte
Southdale Audrey Gordon Renée Cable
Springfield-Ritchot Ron Schuler Ron Schuler
Spruce Woods Cliff Cullen Grant Jackson
St. Boniface Dougald Lamont Robert Loiselle
St. James Adrien Sala Adrien Sala
St. Johns Nahanni Fontaine Nahanni Fontaine
St. Vital Jamie Moses Jamie Moses
Steinbach Kelvin Goertzen Kelvin Goertzen
Swan River Rick Wowchuk Rick Wowchuk
The Maples Mintu Sandhu Mintu Sandhu
The Pas-Kameesak Amanda Lathlin Amanda Lathlin
Thompson Eric Redhead Eric Redhead
Transcona Nello Altomare Nello Altomare
Turtle Mountain Doyle Piwniuk Doyle Piwniuk
Tuxedo Heather Stefanson Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park Cindy Lamoureux Cindy Lamoureux
Union Station Uzoma Asagwara Uzoma Asagwara
Waverley Jon Reyes David Pankratz
Wolseley Lisa Naylor Lisa Naylor

Analysis

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Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
NDP PC Lib Ind
New Democratic 30 3 1 34
Progressive Conservative 21 1 22
Liberal 1 1
Total 22 30 4 1 57
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
█New Democratic 34 22 1
█Progressive Conservative 22 30 5
█Liberal 1 4 38 6
█Independent 1 2
█Keystone 5
█Green 4 9
█Communist 2 3
Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Source Party
NDP PC Lib Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 18 12 1 31
Open seats held 10 10
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 12 12
Open seats gained 4 4
Total 34 22 1 57

Aftermath

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Liberal leaderDougald Lamontresigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he andJon Gerrardlost their seats to NDP challengers, leavingCindy Lamoureuxas the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[44]Outgoing premier and PC leaderHeather Stefansonalso announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

Seats changing hands

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Defeated MLAs

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Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
St. Boniface █Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e 2018 b.e Robert Loiselle █New Democratic
River Heights █Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz █New Democratic
Southdale █Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable █New Democratic
Kirkfield Park █Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 2016 Logan Oxenham █New Democratic
Radisson █Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz █New Democratic
Seine River █Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross █New Democratic
Waverley █Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019(District Created) David Pankratz █New Democratic
Brandon East █Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard █New Democratic
Riel █Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes █New Democratic
Lagimodière █Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019(District Created) Tyler Blashko █New Democratic
Assiniboia █Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy █New Democratic
Rossmere █Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt █New Democratic

Open seats

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Constituency Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the legislature Won by Party
Fort Richmond █Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard[26] Jennifer Chen █New Democratic
Kildonan-River East █Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox[27] Rachelle Schott █New Democratic
McPhillips █Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan █New Democratic
Dauphin █Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn █New Democratic

Opinion polls

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Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines representlocal regressions.
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Marginof error Sample size Polling method Lead
Forum Research Oct 2,2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
Mainstreet Research Aug 28–Sep 2,2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
Probe Research May 31–Jun 13,2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
Angus Reid May 30–Jun 3,2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023 Janine Gibsoniselected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22–Dec 5,2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23–Dec 5,2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefansoniselected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24–Oct 5,2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29–Oct 3,2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24–Dec 4,2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29–Jun 3,2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27–Dec 10,2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election September 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Marginof error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^Elections Act,CCSM, c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ^CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ^Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021)."Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election".CBC News.Archivedfrom the original on August 30, 2021.RetrievedAugust 31,2021.
  4. ^Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021)."Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin".CBC News.Archivedfrom the original on October 30, 2021.RetrievedOctober 31,2021.
  5. ^ab"PCs make opposition to landfill search a central facet of campaign as Manitoba election day nears".CBC News.RetrievedJune 28,2024.
  6. ^"Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign".September 20, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on September 20, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 20,2023.
  7. ^"Archived copy".Archivedfrom the original on September 28, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 23,2023.{{cite web}}:CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^"NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget".October 16, 2022.Archivedfrom the original on October 1, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 23,2023.
  9. ^"Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign".Winnipeg.September 14, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on September 26, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  10. ^ab"Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".CJOB.Archivedfrom the original on September 25, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  11. ^"Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".CJOB.Archivedfrom the original on October 1, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  12. ^"Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".CJOB.Archivedfrom the original on October 2, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  13. ^"Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected".CBC News.September 27, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  14. ^"Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity".The Graphic Leader.September 27, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  15. ^Thompson, Sam (October 4, 2023)."Manitoba NDP will stick to landfill promise, MLA says".Global News Winnipeg.Corus Entertainment. Global News.RetrievedNovember 18,2023.
  16. ^Kives, Bartley(October 2, 2023)."Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election".CBC News.Archivedfrom the original on October 2, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  17. ^Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023)."Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate".CBC News.Archivedfrom the original on September 23, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  18. ^"Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry".PortageOnline.Archivedfrom the original on October 1, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  19. ^"New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network".REMINET.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  20. ^"Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".CJOB.Archivedfrom the original on October 2, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  21. ^Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023)."Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote".Winnipeg Free Press.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  22. ^Official Results
  23. ^"Political Parties".Elections Manitoba.Archivedfrom the original on August 15, 2023.RetrievedJuly 10,2023.
  24. ^Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022)."I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election".Facebook.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedAugust 22,2022.
  25. ^Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese,"Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics"ArchivedJanuary 6, 2023, at theWayback Machine.CBC News, January 6, 2023.
  26. ^ab"Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons".CBC Manitoba.The Canadian Press.June 13, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on June 13, 2023.RetrievedJune 13,2023.
  27. ^abDarren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023)."Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid".CBC Manitoba.Archivedfrom the original on January 5, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 5,2023.
  28. ^The Canadian Press,"Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election"ArchivedOctober 4, 2022, at theWayback Machine.Winnipeg Free Press,October 4, 2022.
  29. ^Jordan Ross,"Smook to retire from legislature"ArchivedOctober 19, 2022, at theWayback Machine.Winnipeg Free Press,October 17, 2022.
  30. ^Steve Lambert,The Canadian Press(February 22, 2023)."Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election".Winnipeg Free Press.Archivedfrom the original on February 23, 2023.RetrievedFebruary 23,2023.
  31. ^Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021)."I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election"(Tweet).RetrievedJuly 15,2021– viaTwitter.
  32. ^Michael Blume,"Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election"ArchivedDecember 29, 2022, at theWayback Machine.Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
  33. ^Ian Froese,"Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election"ArchivedJanuary 4, 2023, at theWayback Machine.CBC News, January 4, 2023.
  34. ^Bartley Kives,"Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature"ArchivedDecember 29, 2022, at theWayback Machine.CBC News, December 29, 2022.
  35. ^Ian Froese,"Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023"ArchivedJanuary 4, 2023, at theWayback Machine.CBC News, January 3, 2023.
  36. ^"Candidates".Elections Manitoba.Archivedfrom the original on August 16, 2023.RetrievedAugust 15,2023.
  37. ^"Our Team".Manitoba NDP.Archivedfrom the original on May 31, 2023.RetrievedMay 31,2023.
  38. ^Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023)."PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows".CBC.Archivedfrom the original on May 9, 2023.RetrievedMay 30,2023.
  39. ^"Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023".electionsmanitoba.ca.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  40. ^"Manitoba Tory cabinet minister denounces right-wing pivot in election campaign".CKY-DT.The Canadian Press.October 4, 2023.
  41. ^Sarah Petz (October 3, 2023)."Health Minister Audrey Gordon among Winnipeg PC cabinet ministers losing seats to NDP".CBC News.
  42. ^"Statement of Official Results - Tuxedo"(PDF).Elections Manitoba.October 4, 2023.
  43. ^"Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results)".Elections Manitoba.RetrievedOctober 5,2023.
  44. ^"Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader".Winnipeg.October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 4,2023.

Opinion poll sources

edit
  1. ^"NDP Majority Government Likely"(PDF).Forum Research.October 2, 2023.Archived(PDF)from the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  2. ^"Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day".Research Co.October 2, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  3. ^Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023)."Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public".Mainstreet Research.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedOctober 2,2023.
  4. ^"Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23".Sovereign North Strategies.September 20, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on October 3, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 20,2023.
  5. ^"Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign".Angus Reid.September 20, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on September 20, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 20,2023.
  6. ^"With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba".CTV News.September 20, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on September 20, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 20,2023.
  7. ^"Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues".Research Co.September 18, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on September 20, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 18,2023.
  8. ^"Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023"(PDF).Counsel Public Affairs.September 26, 2023.Archived(PDF)from the original on September 27, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 27,2023.
  9. ^Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023)."Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public".Archivedfrom the original on September 7, 2023.RetrievedSeptember 7,2023.
  10. ^Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023)."Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public".Archivedfrom the original on August 3, 2023.RetrievedAugust 3,2023.
  11. ^"NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)".Probe Research.June 21, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on June 22, 2023.RetrievedJune 23,2023.
  12. ^"Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election".Angus Reid Institute.June 13, 2023.Archivedfrom the original on June 13, 2023.RetrievedJune 13,2023.
  13. ^"Manitoba Provincial Party Support"(PDF).probe-research.Archived(PDF)from the original on March 28, 2023.RetrievedMarch 28,2023.
  14. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba"(PDF).ipolitics.ca.Archived(PDF)from the original on February 1, 2023.RetrievedFebruary 1,2023.
  15. ^"NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on December 12, 2022.RetrievedDecember 12,2022.
  16. ^"Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News".ctvnews.ca.September 25, 2022.Archivedfrom the original on September 26, 2022.RetrievedSeptember 27,2022.
  17. ^"Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart"(PDF).Angus Reid Institute.July 8, 2022.Archived(PDF)from the original on July 9, 2022.RetrievedJuly 19,2022.
  18. ^"NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on July 19, 2022.RetrievedJune 19,2022.
  19. ^"Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on July 19, 2022.RetrievedMarch 26,2022.
  20. ^"Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management".Angus Reid Institute.March 31, 2022.Archivedfrom the original on March 31, 2022.RetrievedMarch 31,2022.
  21. ^"Detailed Results"(PDF).Angus Reid Institute.March 31, 2022.Archived(PDF)from the original on March 31, 2022.RetrievedMarch 31,2022.
  22. ^"Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec"(PDF).Angus Reid Institute.January 20, 2022.Archived(PDF)from the original on January 20, 2022.RetrievedJanuary 21,2022.
  23. ^"No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on December 16, 2021.RetrievedDecember 16,2021.
  24. ^"Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics"(PDF).Archived(PDF)from the original on October 9, 2021.RetrievedOctober 11,2021.
  25. ^"Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute"(PDF).angusreid.org.Archived(PDF)from the original on October 27, 2021.RetrievedOctober 31,2021.
  26. ^"Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on October 2, 2021.RetrievedOctober 12,2021.
  27. ^"NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on June 18, 2021.RetrievedJune 18,2021.
  28. ^"Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute".angusreid.org.June 9, 2021.Archivedfrom the original on June 13, 2021.RetrievedJune 13,2021.
  29. ^"NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on March 31, 2021.RetrievedMarch 31,2021.
  30. ^"NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on January 17, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  31. ^"Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management".Angus Reid Institute.December 10, 2020.Archivedfrom the original on January 13, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  32. ^"Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on January 27, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  33. ^"Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba".EKOS Politics.September 2, 2020.Archivedfrom the original on January 14, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  34. ^"Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba".EKOS Politics.July 24, 2020.Archivedfrom the original on January 20, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  35. ^"PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on December 3, 2020.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  36. ^"Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update"(PDF).innovativeresearch.ca.Archivedfrom the original on October 28, 2020.RetrievedOctober 31,2021.
  37. ^"Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc".probe-research.Archivedfrom the original on December 3, 2020.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
  38. ^Robertson, Dylan (December 27, 2019)."Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election".Winnipeg Free Press.Archivedfrom the original on September 17, 2020.RetrievedJanuary 13,2021.
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