Wikipedia

By-election

Aby-election,also known as aspecial electionin theUnited Statesand thePhilippines,and abye-electionor abypollinIndia,is an election used to fill an office that has become vacant betweengeneral elections.

A vacancy may arise as a result of an incumbent dying or resigning, or when the incumbent becomes ineligible to continue in office (because of arecall,a prohibiteddual mandate,criminal conviction, or failure to maintain a minimum attendance), or when an election is invalidated by voting irregularities. In some cases a vacancy may be filled by a method other than a by-election (such as the outgoing member's party nominating a replacement) or the office may be left vacant. These elections can be held anytime in the country.

An election to fill a vacancy created when a general election cannot take place in a particular constituency (such as if a candidate dies shortly before election day) may be called a by-election in some jurisdictions, or may have a distinct name (e.g.,supplementary election,as inAustralia).

Origins

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The procedure for filling a vacant seat in theHouse of Commons of Englandwas developed during theReformation Parliamentof the 16th century byThomas Cromwell;previously a seat had remained empty upon the death of a member. Cromwell devised a new election that would be called by the king at a time of the king's choosing. This made it a simple matter to ensure the seat rewarded an ally of the crown.[1]

During the eighteen-yearCavalier ParliamentofCharles II,which lasted from 1661 to 1679, by-elections were the primary means by which new members entered the House of Commons.[2]

In single-member constituencies

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A 1768 political cartoon about a by-election during theMiddlesex election affair.

By-elections are held in most nations that elect their parliaments throughsingle-member constituencies,whetherwithorwithoutarunoffround. This includes mostCommonwealthcountries, such as theUnited Kingdom,Canada,AustraliaandNew Zealand,as well as non-Commonwealth countries such asFranceandItaly(until 2006).[3]However, in some cases, such as theFrench National Assembly,by-elections are only used to fill some vacancies, with the others being filled by the assumption of a seat by arunning matenominated by the vacator.

In the United States, these contests have been called "special elections" because they do not always occur onElection Daylike regular congressional elections. Special elections are held when a seat in theHouse of Representatives,state legislature,orlocal legislaturebecomes vacant. At the federal level, theU.S. Constitutionrequires that vacancies in the House of Representatives be filled with a special election[4](unlike theSenate,where it is up to law of the state involved to determine how the vacancy is filled).[5]In most cases where a vacancy is filled through a special election, a primary will also be held to determine which candidates will represent the major parties.

In multi-member constituencies

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When one seat in amulti-member constituencybecomes vacant, the consequences vary. For example, a by-election may be held to fill just the vacancy, all the seats in the constituency could be contested in the by-election, or the vacancy could be filled by other means.

Typically,party-list proportional representationsystems do not hold by-elections. Instead, the most successful unelected candidate named on the vacator's list fills the vacancy automatically. However,Turkeyis an exception, as it holds by-elections when too many seats become vacant in the parliament (as in1986) or a repeat vote has to be held (as in2003).

In multi-member district systems that do not employ party lists –single transferable vote,single non-transferable voteandplurality at-large– vacancies may be filled by a by-election. This is done, for example, in theDáilof theRepublic of Ireland(STV), in theParliament of Vanuatu(SNTV), and in theSenate of the Philippines(Pl. AL). In those systems, alternatives to holding a by-election include:

  1. re-determining the election results with the vacators disregarded, as inTasmania[6]or theAustralian Capital Territory,[7]
  2. keeping the seat vacant until the nextgeneral election.This usually occurs if a vacancy arises shortly before a planned general election (within six months in New Zealand).
  3. nominating another candidate with the same affiliation as the former member, such asEuropean Parliamentseats in the Republic of Ireland.

For theAustralian Senate(in which each state forms a multi-member constituency elected viasingle transferable vote), the state parliament appoints a replacement in the event of a vacancy; in 1977 a referendum amended the Constitution to require that the person appointed must belong to the same political party (if any) as the Senator originally elected to that seat. The states with anupper houseelected via STV (NSW, Victoria, and South Australia) use the same method, except for Western Australia, which holds a recount of ballots to determine the new winner, with sitting members retaining their seats.

In mixed systems

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Mixed-member proportional representation,additional member,andparallel votingsystems, in which some members are chosen byparty listsand some from single-member constituencies, usually hold by-elections to fill a vacancy in a constituency seat; for example, the assassination ofShinzo Aberesulted in a by-election inYamaguchi's 4th district,which Abe represented in theHouse of Representatives of Japan(elected under parallel voting).[8]If a vacancy arises in a party list seat, it would be filled in the manner usual for party-list proportional systems; for example, on the resignation ofDarren Hughesfrom theParliament of New Zealandin March 2011,Louisa Wallfilled the seat after all the five candidates above her on theNew Zealand Labour Party's list declined it.[9]

Exceptions to this rule exist: In the GermanBundestag,which uses mixed-member proportional representation, by-elections were originally held upon the vacancy of any constituency seat. This was changed in January 1953, since which time vacancies in constituency seats have been filled by the next candidate on the state list of the party which won the seat, in the same manner as vacancies among list seats. Confusingly, this change occurred alongside a switch frommixed single vote,where a single set of votes was used for both constituency and list seats, to a conventional two-vote mixed member proportional system - a change which granted constituency members an electoral mandate distinct from the party's list seats. By-elections are now only held if a vacancy arises in a constituency seat and there is no associated party list with which to fill it – typically, if the former member was elected as anindependent.This is referred to as a substitute election (Ersatzwahl). Since no independents have been elected to the Bundestag since the first legislative period, no such substitute election has ever taken place.[10]

Significance and consequences

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Direct effects

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By-elections can be crucial when the ruling party has only a small majority. Inparliamentary systems,party discipline is often so strong that the governing party or coalition can only lose avote of no confidenceafter losing enough supporters, whether by floor-crossing or through losing by-elections, for it to become aminority government.Examples are theLabour government of James Callaghan 1976–1979andConservative government of John Major 1992–1997.In theUnited States Senate,Scott Brown's electionin 2010 ended thefilibuster-proofsupermajorityformerly enjoyed byDemocrats.

By-elections can also be important if a minority party needs to gain one or more seats in order to gainofficial party statusor thebalance of powerin a minority or coalition situation. For example,Andrea Horwath's win in anOntarioprovincial by-election in 2004 allowed theOntario New Democratic Partyto regain official party status with important results in terms of parliamentary privileges and funding.

In 1996 in theAustralianstate ofQueenslandthe seat ofMundingburrawhere in the1995 state electionWayne Goss and hisLabor Partywon by a slim 45-seat majority in a 89-seat parliament. The seat was decided by 16 votes but due to difficulties and irregularities in the voting led to a by-election where the rivalLiberal Partywon the seat pushing Goss' government in minority and with IndependentLiz Cunninghamteaming up to push a motion of no confidence in the government. After the motion or no confidenceRob Borbidgethe leader of theNationalsthe senior partner in the coalition became premier until his government's defeat in the1998 state election.

Predictive value

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Non-experts often interpret by-election results as abellwetheror early indicator of the results of the next general election, but political scientists generally caution against overinterpretation. The evidence suggests that while the margin of victory relative to the district's normal performance may be relevant, other indicators generally provide stronger evidence with a larger sample size.[11]

A 2016 study of special elections to theUnited States House of Representativesfound "that while candidate characteristics affect special election outcomes, presidential approval is predictive of special election outcomes as well. Furthermore, we find that the effect of presidential approval on special election outcomes has increased in magnitude from 1995 to 2014, with the 2002 midterm representing an important juncture in the nationalization of special elections."[12]

Seats which have unexpectedly changed hands in by-elections often revert to the former party in the next general election. One reason for this is thatvoter turnoutat by-elections tends to be lower and skewed toward highly motivated supporters of the opposition party.

Indirect impact

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Mary Ellen Smithbecame the first woman in theLegislative Assembly of British Columbiain a 1918 by-election, the first election in which women of the province could vote.[13]

By-election upsets can have a psychological impact by creating a sense of momentum for one party or a sense of impending defeat for a government. For example, in Canada,Deborah Grey's1989 by-election victoryinBeaver Riverwas seen as evidence that the newly formedReform Party of Canadawould be a serious political contender and that it posed a serious political threat for the rulingProgressive Conservatives.Similarly, the upset 1960 by-election victory ofWalter PitmaninPeterboroughas a "New Party"candidate was a significant boost for the movement to replace theCo-operative Commonwealth Federationwith an unnamed "New Party" which would be integrated with the labour movement. Pitman's candidacy in a riding in which the CCF was traditionally weak was seen as a test of this concept, and his upset victory convinced the CCF and the labour movement to launch theNew Democratic Party(NDP).Gilles Duceppe's 1990 upset landslide by-election victory inLaurier—Sainte-Mariewith 66% of the vote on behalf of the newly formedBloc Québécoiswas the first electoral test for what was initially a loose parliamentary formation created two months earlier after several Quebec MPs defected from the Progressive Conservative and Liberal parties to protest the failure of theMeech Lake Accordand provided the first indication that the party could be a serious force in the province of Quebec. On the strength of the by-election victory, the BQ went on to be officially formed as a party in 1991 and win 54 seats in the 1993 federal election, enough to form the Official Opposition.

By-elections may occur singly or in small bunches, especially if the authority responsible for calling them has discretion over the timing and can procrastinate. They are sometimes bunched to save money, as holding multiple by-elections is likely to cost more than holding a by-election to fill the vacancies all at once. In Canada, in 1978,15 by-elections were held on a single date,restoring the House of Commons to 264 members. The media called it a "mini-election", a test of the Liberal government's popularity with a general election due in less than a year. In Hong Kong, in January 2010, five members of the Legislative Council from thePro-democracy camp,one from each of Hong Kong's five geographical constituencies, resigned and stood in simultaneous by-elections, at which the entire electorate would participate, in an attempt to stage ade facto referendumon democratizing the Hong Kong political system. The effect of the manoeuvre was blunted when thePro-Beijing camprefused to stand candidates against them.

Upsets

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Australia

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The1918 Swan by-electionwas held following the death ofJohn Forrest.The seat was traditionally a safe seat for theNationalist Partyagainst theLabor Party,but the emergence of theCountry Partylead to a"three-cornered contest".As Australia used afirst-past-the-postsystem at the time, the conservative vote was split between the Country and Nationalists, allowing Labor candidateEdwin Corboyto come in first place and win the seat. The Swan by-election is cited as the reason for the introduction ofpreferential voting,to prevent Labor from benefiting from a divided opposition in the future.[14]

The2018 Wentworth by-electionwas held after the resignation of former prime ministerMalcolm Turnbull,who had served as the member forWentworthsince 2004. Wentworth was considered an exceptionally safe seat for theLiberal Party,as it had only ever been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessor parties since its creation in 1901. Former Ambassador to IsraelDave Sharmawas preselected as the Liberal Party's candidate for the by-election. The major challenger in the by-election was independent candidateKerryn Phelps.A huge 17.7%two-party-preferredswing was required for the Liberal Party to lose the seat. Ultimately, the Liberals suffered a 19.0% swing to Phelps, the largest by-election swing in Australian history, which won her the seat. This loss deprived the Liberal Party of its majority in federal Parliament, forcing them into aminority government.

Canada

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In 1942, the Conservatives'Arthur Meighen(who had already served as Prime Minister during the 1920s) sought to re-enter theHouse of Commons of Canadathrough a by-election inYork South.His surprise defeat at the hand ofJoseph Noseworthyof theCo-operative Commonwealth Federationended his political career, and may also have been a factor in the Conservative Party's decision to move to the left and rebrand itself the Progressive Conservative Party under Meighen's replacement. Noseworthy's victory was also a significant breakthrough for the CCF giving it credibility as a national party where it has previously been seen as a Western Canadian regional protest party.

On November 1, 1944, GeneralAndrew McNaughtonwas appointed to Cabinet asMinister of Defencewithout having a seat in parliament, after his predecessor resigned during theConscription Crisis of 1944.A by-election was arranged inGrey Northwhich the oppositionProgressive Conservative partycontested. The major campaign issue became the government's policy of "limited conscription" during World War II, which McNaughton supported, and which the Conservatives rejected. They called, instead, for "full conscription". McNaughton was defeated in the February 5, 1945 by-election. As a result, with confidence in his government undermined,Prime MinisterWilliam Lyon Mackenzie Kingcalled the1945 federal electionseveral weeks later; originally he had intended to postpone the election until the war was clearly won. McNaughton sought a seat in the 1945 contest but was again defeated, and resigned shortly after.

The most recent example of a cabinet minister appointed from outside parliament having to resign after losing a by-election was in 1975, when Minister of CommunicationsPierre Juneauwas appointed toPierre Trudeau's Liberal cabinet directly from the private sector, and tried to enter parliament through a by-election inHochelaga.Juneau unexpectedly lost to the Progressive Conservative candidate and resigned from cabinet 10 days after his by-election defeat.

In Alberta, PremierDon Gettylost his seat (Edmonton-Whitemud) in the1989 Alberta general electiondespite his party winning a majority. To re-enter the Legislative Assembly, fellow caucus memberBrian DowneyofStettlerresigned so Getty could run in a by-election. Getty was elected, and remained MLA for that riding until resigning as premier and MLA in 1992.

InOntario,John Tory,leader of theProgressive Conservative Party of Ontarioran in a 2009 by-election inHaliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock,after he convinced one of his caucus members to step down, in hopes of re-entering theOntario legislature.His by-election defeat resulted in his resignation as party leader.

InBritish Columbia,sittingPremierChristy Clarklost her seat in the2013 British Columbia general election.In order to remain in thelegislature,she convinced her fellow caucus memberBen StewartofWestside-Kelownato resign as an MLA twenty-two days after the general election, so Clark could run in a by-election before thelegislature's first session.Clark was successful and remained in government until2017.

Hong Kong

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In theMarch 2018 Hong Kong by-elections,thepro-democracy camplost their majority status for the first time in theGeographical constituencypart of theLegislative Council of Hong KongBy-elections were held after six pro-democracy lawmakers were disqualified by theHigh Court of Hong Kongduring theoath-taking controversy.The pro-democracy camp was considered safe in the de factofirst past the postby-election because both pro-democracy camp andpro-Beijing campwould only nominate one candidate to fill in the by-election. However, the pro-democracy camp lost twice inKowloon West,which had been considered a safe seat for them.

Singapore

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Main article:By-elections in Singapore

Under Article 49(1) of theConstitution of Singapore,[15]a by-election should be called for any vacancy arising from a constituency - particularlySingle Member Constituency[16]- within a reasonable time period.[17]Since the introduction of partial self-governance in 1955, 34 by-elections have been held, and some have been major upsets:

Ireland

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Aby-electionheld inDublin South-Westduring 2014 provided a very surprising upset. TheSinn Féincandidate, Cathal King, was the favourite to take the seat. Sinn Féin had done extremely well in the area duringthat year's local elections.Sinn Féin captured high percentages of the first preference vote across the constituency. However, theAnti-Austerity Alliancecandidate,Paul Murphy,was elected on the eighth count. Although Murphy had received a lower first preference total than Cathal King, he outperformed the Sinn Féin candidate in attracting transfers. Murphy then took his seat in the31st Dáil.As a direct result of this defeat in the by-election, Sinn Féin hardened their stance againstIrish Waterand called for the complete abolition of water charges in Ireland.

United Kingdom

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In 1965, theBritish Foreign SecretaryPatrick Gordon Walkerstood in theLeyton by-electionfor election to theUK Parliament,having been defeated in controversial circumstances inSmethwickat the previous year'sgeneral election.His appointment as a senior minister while not a member of either house of Parliament was against convention, and he therefore sought to regularise the position by standing in the first available by-election, which was atLeytonin January 1965. However a strong swing against Labour resulted in Gordon Walker's defeat: as a result, he resigned as Foreign Secretary.

United States

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In 2010,RepublicanScott BrowndefeatedMartha Coakleyin theMassachusetts special election to the United States Senate.Coakley, aDemocrat,had been widely expected to win, but Brown unexpectedly closed the gap and won, a shocking result in the heavily-Democratic state of Massachusetts. This eliminated the Democratic Party'sfilibuster-proofmajority of 60 votes. Another upset occurred in the2017 special election in Alabama,one of the most heavily Republican states in the nation. DemocratDoug Jonesdefeated RepublicanRoy Moorein a close race after Moore wasaccused of sexual assault by multiple women.

See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^Jennifer Loach.Parliament Under the Tudors.Clarendon Press. Oxford. 1990. p. 36
  2. ^By-Elections in British Politics.UCL Press, London. 1997 pg. 1
  3. ^Buonomo, Giampiero (2006).I subentri nelle assemblee parlamentari(in Italian). Quaderni costituzionali.
  4. ^Article 1, Clause 4, Section 2 of theConstitution of United States(1789)
  5. ^Seventeenth Amendment, Section 2 of theConstitution of United States(1913)
  6. ^"Tasmania's Hare-Clark Electoral System".Archived fromthe originalon 2011-04-23.
  7. ^"Casual Vacancies in the Legislative Assembly".25 March 2021.
  8. ^"Abe's Widow, Akie, Not to Run in Lower House By-Election".nippon.21 July 2022.Retrieved30 December2022.
  9. ^"Louisa Wall back in Parliament".The New Zealand Herald.6 April 2011.Retrieved9 December2015.
  10. ^"Nachwahl".Wahlrecht.de.Retrieved21 July2020.
  11. ^Nate Silver (September 13, 2011)."A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin".FiveThirtyEight.
  12. ^Knotts, H. Gibbs; Ragusa, Jordan M. (2016-01-02). "The Nationalization of Special Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives".Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.26(1): 22–39.doi:10.1080/17457289.2015.1063497.ISSN1745-7289.S2CID216142342.
  13. ^"1917 - Women Win the Right to Vote".Legislative Assembly of British Columbia.
  14. ^Green, Antony(2004)."History of Preferential Voting in Australia".Antony Green Election Guide: Federal Election 2004.Australian Broadcasting Corporation.Retrieved2020-06-15.
  15. ^"Constitution of the Republic of Singapore - Singapore Statutes Online".
  16. ^"Parliamentary Elections Act 1954 - Singapore Statutes Online".
  17. ^"[2013] Sgca 39".
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