Wikipedia

Frozen conflict

For the period of geopolitical tension between the Soviet Union and the United States, and and their respective allies, seeCold War.

Ininternational relations,afrozen conflictis a situation in whichactive armed conflicthas been brought to an end, but nopeace treatyor other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

Geopolitics ofEastern EuropeandWest Asiain 2014, showing the frozen conflict zones ofTransnistria,Crimea,Abkhazia,South Ossetia,andDonbas(numbered 1–5), as well asNorthern Cyprus(lighter region within Cyprus). TheGaza Strip,Israel,Kosovo,and theWest Bankalso appear on the map, although they are not highlighted. Frozen conflict zones elsewhere in the world do not appear on this map.

The term has been commonly used forpost-Soviet conflicts,but it has also often been applied to other extended and unresolvedterritorial disputes.[1][2][3]Thede factosituation that emerges may or may not match the official position asserted by either party to the conflict. For example, in theDivision of Korea,bothNorth KoreaandSouth Koreaofficially assert claims to theentire peninsula;however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result inpartially recognized states.For example, theRepublic of South Ossetia,a product of the frozenGeorgian–Ossetian conflict,isrecognizedby eight other states, including five UN member states; the other three of these entities are partially-recognized states themselves.

Since aggressors are not defeated, frozen conflicts can be seen asappeasementand rewardingaggression.[4]

Current frozen conflicts

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Africa

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Western Sahara

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Further information:Western Sahara conflictandPolitical status of Western Sahara
Status quo inWestern Saharasince 1991 cease-fire: most under Moroccan control (Southern Provinces), with inner Polisario-controlled areas forming theSahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since aceasefirein 1991, although various disturbances such as theIndependence Intifadahave broken out since then. Control of the territory ofWestern Sahararemains divided between theKingdom of Moroccoand thePolisario Front.[5]

Asia

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Kashmir

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Further information:Partition of India,Kashmir,andKashmir conflict
India claims the entire erstwhile princely state ofJammu and Kashmirbased on an instrument of accession signed in 1947. Pakistan claims Jammu and Kashmir based on its majority Muslim population, whereas China claims theShaksam ValleyandAksai Chin.

IndiaandPakistanhave fought at least three wars over the disputed region ofKashmir,in1947,1965,and1999.India claims the entire area of the formerprincely stateofJammu & Kashmiron the basis of its ruler formallyacceding to India[citation needed]amidst a Pakistani invasion after partition, and administers approximately 43% of it. Pakistan has also claimed it since the partition—based on its majority Muslim population, and controls approximately 37% of the region while encouragingproxy wartactics in Kashmir.[6][7]The remaining territory is controlled by the People's Republic of China; some of it was occupied during theSino-Indian War,and some was conferred on the PRC by Pakistan.

Korean Peninsula

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Further information:Division of KoreaandKorean conflict

The Korean conflict was frozen from 1953, when aceasefireended theKorean War.BothNorth KoreaandSouth Koreagovernments claim the entireKorean peninsula,whilede factocontrol is divided along the military demarcation line in theKorean Demilitarized Zone.Both North Korea and South Korea arerecognizedby the vast majority of other nations, although they do not recognize each other.

Mainland China and Taiwan

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Further information:Chinese Civil War,Cross-Strait conflict,One-China policy,Political status of Taiwan,and1992 Consensus

The conflict betweenMainland ChinaandTaiwanhas been frozen since 1949. No armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed and debate continues as to whether the civil war has legally ended.[8][9]Officially, both thePeople's Republic of China(PRC) based inBeijingand the Republic of China (ROC) based inTaipeiconsider themselves to be thesole legitimate governmentof the entirety of China.[10]While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains ade factoindependent administration inTaiwan and several other islands,and the PRC'sde factoadministration is in Mainland China,Hong KongandMacau.

Europe

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Kosovo

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Further information:Kosovo WarandPolitical status of Kosovo

The dispute over the status ofKosovoremains frozen since the end of theKosovo War,fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (theFederal Republic of Yugoslavia) and the ethnicallyAlbanianKosovo Liberation Army.The Kosovo region has been administered independently by theUnited Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovosince the war. Kosovo unilaterallydeclared its independencefromSerbiain 2008, but it is not recognized by all countries worldwide, as Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory.[11][12]

Transnistria

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Further information:Transnistria conflict

Since the ceasefire which ended theTransnistria War(1990–1992), theRussian-influenced breakaway republic ofTransnistriahas controlled the easternmost strip of the territory ofMoldova.The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.

Middle East

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Abkhazia and South Ossetia

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Further information:Abkhaz–Georgian conflict,Georgian–Ossetian conflict,andOccupied territories of Georgia

TheAbkhaz–Georgian conflictandGeorgian–Ossetian conflicthave led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory ofGeorgia.The1991–92 South Ossetia Warand the1992–93 War in Abkhazia,followed by theRusso-Georgian Warof August 2008, have left the Russian-backed republics ofSouth OssetiaandAbkhaziainde factocontrol of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia. These interventions have been interpreted as a Kremlin strategy to destabilize other post-Soviet states and extend Russia's sphere of influence.[13][14]

Cyprus

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Further information:Cyprus conflictandCyprus Turkish Peace Force Command
A map of divided Cyprus

TheCyprus disputehas been frozen since 1974. The northern part ofCyprusis under thede factocontrol of theTurkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,but this is not recognized internationally except byTurkey.[15][16]

Israel, Palestine, and the Golan Heights

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Further information:Israeli–Palestinian conflict,Arab–Israeli conflict,Foreign relations of the State of Palestine,Status of Jerusalem,Status of the Golan Heights,andIran–Israel proxy conflict
Area C(blue) is part of theWest Bankunder full Israeli control, in 2011.

TheArab–Israeli conflictis a perennial conflict betweenIsraeland its Arab neighbours, including thePalestinian National Authority.Israel refuses to recognizePalestinian statehood,while some Arab countries and groups refuse to recognize Israel. Israel hasde factocontrol ofEast Jerusalemand claims it as its integral territory, although it is not internationally recognized as such. Similarly most of theGolan Heightsare currently underde factoIsraeli control and civil administration, whereas most of the international community rejects that claim. The United Statesformally recognizedIsraeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019 through a proclamation by PresidentDonald Trump.However, in recent years, a few Arab states and Israel had formed an alliance to contain theIslamic Republic of Iranand its proxies as part of theIran–Israel proxy conflict.

Former frozen conflict

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Nagorno-Karabakh

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TheNagorno-Karabakh conflictwas a frozen conflict with periods of full-scale escalations.[17]The dissolution of theRepublic of Artsakhfollowing the2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakhcan be seen as an end to this frozen conflict.

See also

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References

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  1. ^Simon Tisdall (2010-09-22)."This dangerous new world of self-interested nations".The Guardian.Retrieved2014-03-22.
  2. ^"North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?".Isn.ethz.ch.Retrieved2014-03-22.
  3. ^"Europe: Frozen conflicts".The Economist.2008-11-19.Retrieved2014-03-22.
  4. ^Jung, Karsten (2023)."A New Concert for Europe: Security and Order After the War".The Washington Quarterly.46:25–43.doi:10.1080/0163660X.2023.2192137.
  5. ^Zivkovic, Nikola (26 December 2012). "Western Sahara: A Frozen Conflict".Journal of Regional Security.7.
  6. ^Irfan Haider (28 September 2015)."PM Nawaz urges Ban Ki-moon for plebiscite in Kashmir".Dawn.Retrieved23 March2017.
  7. ^Durrani, Atiq (4 February 2013)."PAK-INDIA Dialogue: Single-Point-Agenda: KASHMIR".PKKH. Archived fromthe originalon 3 October 2013.Retrieved18 August2013.
  8. ^Green, Leslie C. (1993).The Contemporary Law of Armed Conflict.Manchester University Press. p. 79.ISBN978-0-7190-3540-1.
  9. ^"The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert".Forbes.22 September 2020.
  10. ^Hudson, Christopher (2014).The China Handbook.Routledge. p. 59.ISBN978-1-134-26966-2.
  11. ^Bancroft, Ian (2008-06-09)."Ian Bancroft: A new frozen conflict in Kosovo?".the Guardian.Retrieved2018-03-20.
  12. ^"KOSOVO: RUSSIA'S FIFTH FROZEN CONFLICT? - Jamestown".Jamestown.Retrieved2018-03-20.
  13. ^Orttung, Robert; Walker, Christopher (February 13, 2015)."Putin's Frozen Conflicts".Foreign Policy.Archivedfrom the original on 2021-05-20.Retrieved2021-05-20.
  14. ^Jukic, Luka (20 February 2019)."How Russia Keeps Post-Soviet States in Its Orbit".Palladium Magazine.Archivedfrom the original on 15 Feb 2020.Retrieved2021-05-29.
  15. ^Foster, Peter (2016-08-21)."Hopes rise for deal to end 40-year frozen conflict in Cyprus".The Telegraph.ISSN0307-1235.Retrieved2018-03-20.
  16. ^Byrne, Sean J. (Winter 2006). "The Roles of External Ethnoguarantors and Primary Mediators in Cyprus and Northern Ireland".Conflict Resolution Quarterly.24(2): 149–172.doi:10.1002/crq.164.Cyprus is more of a frozen conflict, and a long-standing one, than Northern Ireland, where the peace process has in a real sense gone much further down the road to settlement.
  17. ^Ludvik, J., & Bahensky, V. (2024). The Russia-Ukraine frozen conflict: Evidence from an expert survey. Comparative Strategy, 43(2), 104–117.
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