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Minimal deterrence

Innuclear strategy,minimal deterrence,also known asminimum deterrenceandfinite deterrence,is an application ofdeterrence theoryin which a state possesses no morenuclear weaponsthan is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking.[1]Pure minimal deterrence is a doctrine ofno first use,holding that the only mission of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear adversary by making the cost of afirst strikeunacceptably high.[1]To present a credible deterrent, there must be the assurance that any attack would trigger a retaliatory strike.[2]In other words, minimal deterrence requires rejecting acounterforcestrategy in favor of pursuing survivable force that can be used in acountervaluesecond strike.

While theUnited Statesand theSoviet Unioneach developed robust first- and second-strike capabilities during theCold War,thePeople's Republic of Chinapursued a doctrine of minimal nuclear deterrence. Assuming that decision-makers make cost-benefit analyses when deciding to use force, China's doctrine calls for acquiring a nuclear arsenal only large enough to destroy an adversary's "strategic points" in such a way that the expected costs of a first strike outweigh the anticipated benefits.[3]Indiahas also adopted this strategy, which they termMinimum Credible Deterrence.[4]

The "minimum credible deterrence"(also known as N-deterrence) policy of Pakistan is a defence andstrategicprinciple on which the country'snuclear weapons programis based. This doctrine is not a part of thenuclear doctrine,which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a full-scaledeclared warif the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Instead, the policy of the Minimum Credible Deterrence falls under minimal deterrence as an inverse to theMutually Assured Destruction(MAD), which is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking any military actions against Pakistan, as it did during theIndo-Pakistani War of 1971.

Minimal deterrence represents one way of solving thesecurity dilemmaand avoiding anarms race.Decision-makers often feel pressured to expand their arsenals when they perceive them to be vulnerable to an adversary's first strike, especially when both sides seek to achieve the advantage.[5]Eliminating this perceived vulnerability reduces the incentive to produce more and advanced weapons. For example, the United States’ nuclear force exceeds the requirements of minimal deterrence, and is structured to strike numerous targets in multiple countries and to have the ability to conduct successful counterforce strikes with high confidence.[6]In response to this, China continues to modernize its nuclear forces because its leaders are concerned about the survivability of their arsenal in the face of the United States’ advances in strategic reconnaissance, precision strike, andmissile defense.[7]

One disadvantage of minimal deterrence is that it requires an accurate understanding of the level of damage an adversary finds unacceptable, especially if that understanding changes over time so that a previously credible deterrent is no longer credible.[8]A minimal deterrence strategy must also account for the nuclear firepower that would be "lost" or "neutralized" during an adversary's counterforce strike.[9]Additionally, a minimal deterrence capability may embolden a state when it confronts a superior nuclear power, as has been observed in the relationship between China and the United States.[10]Finally, while pursuing minimal deterrence during arms negotiations allows states to make reductions without becoming vulnerable, further reductions may be undesirable once minimal deterrence is reached because they will increase a state's vulnerability and provide an incentive for an adversary to secretly expand its nuclear arsenal.[11]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^abKristensen, Norris and Oelrich 2009, 21
  2. ^Lieber and Press 2006, 37
  3. ^Ross 2002, 56
  4. ^Feickert and Kronstadt 2003, 9
  5. ^Freedman 2003, 178
  6. ^Kristensen, Norris and Oelrich 2009, 8
  7. ^Blair 2009, 23
  8. ^Stout 2010
  9. ^Freedman 2003, 195
  10. ^McVadon 2005, 6
  11. ^Nalebuff 1988, 424

References

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