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Full spectrum deterrence

(Redirected fromN-deterrence)

TheFull spectrum deterrence[1](previously known asMinimum Credible Deterrence(MCD;officially namedN-deterrence[2][3]) is the defence andstrategicprinciple on which theatomic weapons programmeof Pakistan is based.[4]This doctrine is not a part of thenuclear doctrine,which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a full-scaledeclared warif the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed.[5]Instead, the policy of the Minimum Credible Deterrence falls underminimal deterrenceas an inverse to theMutually Assured Destruction(MAD), which is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking any military actions against Pakistan, as it did in 1971, when Pakistan started the war.[6](see:Indo-Pakistani war of 1971) Pakistan refuses to adoptNo first usepolicy, while the other regional powers,IndiaandChina,have adopted the policy.[7]Pakistan's foreign ministerShamshad Ahmadhad warned that if Pakistan is ever invaded or attacked, it will use "any weapon in its arsenal" to defend itself.[8]

Developmental history

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The comprehensive nuclear weapons policy was addressed by populist prime ministerZulfikar Ali Bhuttoin a vision for the country to "walk tall" in global politics.[9]Maintaining equality on every level of scientific development with India was a primary motivation for his government.[5]Domestically, the popular support helped Bhutto to consolidate the political and economical aspects of atomic bomb projects and the control of thePakistan militaryin civilian hands.[5]This led the creation of formation of defence mechanism systematic programmes, known asNational Command Authority(NCA),Joint Special Forces(JSF) under the control of theJoint Chiefs of Staff Committeewhich is led by its designatedChairman.[5]Externally, the nuclear status was a way to boost Pakistan's prestige, importance and influence on among the friendly and Muslim nations, including rich Gulf monarchies.[5]

On 20 May 1999, in his address at theNational Defence University(NDU), Prime minister Nawaz Sharif used the term "minimum credible deterrence" while speaking about Pakistan's nuclear stance.[10]There, the Prime minister (even the government at present now), made cleared Pakistan's nuclear declaratory statements that India is regarded as its sole nuclear adversary and thus the focus of its nuclear deterrent.[10]

The MCD theory is based on the principles of thedeterrence theoryand offers the idea of the achieving thesecond strikecapability. The MCD theory is effectively, an ideal form of theNash equilibrium(named after mathematicianJohn Forbes Nash), in which both India and Pakistan, once armed, have no rational incentive to either initiate a conflict, or to disarm.[citation needed]

Promulgation and enforcement

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The policy framework was announced byPrime ministerof Pakistan (at that time)Nawaz Sharifafter ordering to perform country's first atomic tests (see the operations:Chagai-IandChagai-II) in 1998 as part oftit-for-tatpolicy.[5]In end of 1998, the doctrine and organisation began to be redesigned, and a proceeded to a full-scope scientific, economical and defence review, involving key country's institutions, to develop and test ideas and concepts.[5]The studies and policy were studied at theNational Defence University(NDU),National University of Sciences and Technology,Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies(IDSS) and various others.[5]

Since the public atomic tests in 1998,Pakistan Governmenthas adopted considerable recommendations and suggestions to think through its nuclear doctrine, and to integrate the nuclear power dimension into its defence strategy.[5]The definition of potential thresholds has been refined, at least in public statements by Pakistani officials. According to one reliable source, the country adopted a three-point nuclear policy in early 2001 as part of the minimum credible deterrence.[5]The most authoritative of these statements are provided by the officials of theAtomic Command Authority,in the form of four thresholds which were first mentioned by Khalid Kidwai in late 2001.[5]

Policy statements

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The theory of "Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD)" has been frequently being interpreted by the various government-in-time of effect of Pakistan. Although the MCD theory was officially adopted in 1998 as part of Pakistan's defence theory,[10]on the other hand, the theory has had been interpreted by the government since in 1972. On military perspective, for instance, thePakistan Air Force(PAF), has retrospectively contended that "MCD is not view to enter into a"nuclear race",but to follow a policy of"peaceful co-existence"in the region, it cannot remain oblivious to the developments inSouth Asia."[11]ThePakistan Governmentofficials have repeatedly emphasized that the MCD is a defence theory, a doctrine that is based on maintaining a balance to safeguard its sovereignty and ensure peace in the region.[12]

In 1974, Bhutto launched a more aggressive and serious diplomatic offensive on the United States and the Western world over the nuclear issues. Writing to the world and Western leaders, Bhutto made it clear and maintained:

Pakistan was exposed to a kind of "nuclear threat and blackmail" unparalleled elsewhere..... (...)... If the world's community failed to provide political insurance to Pakistan and other countries against the nuclear blackmail, these countries would be constraint to launch atomic bomb programs of their own!... [A]ssurances provided by the United Nations were not "Enough!...

— Zulfikar Ali Bhutto,statement written in "Eating Grass",source[13]

If Pakistan restricts or suspends hernuclear deterrence,it would not only enable India toblackmailPakistan with hernuclear advantage,but would impose a crippling limitation on the development of Pakistan'sscience and technology....

— Zulfikar Ali Bhutto,1969, source[14]

Pakistan's strategy of "minimum credible deterrence"guarantees" peace in the region ", and the nuclear weapons programme is moving" strength to strength "...

— Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz,Times of India,[15]

ThePeopleof Pakistan are "security conscious" because of the (1971) severe trauma, and thethree warswith (India). Our nuclear development was peaceful... but was "an effective deterrence to India"..... because (New Delhi) had detonated a nuclear device. She, Pakistan,...., thus, had to take every step to ensure its territorial integrity and sovereignty.....

— Benazir Bhutto, Prime minister,Benazir Bhutto on Pakistan's nuclear weapons,source[3]

No matter whether we are recognized as "nuclear weapon-stateor not, we are aNuclear power."Nuclear restraint", stabilization and "minimum credible deterrence" constitute the basic elements of Pakistan's nuclear policy.,..

— Nawaz Sharif,1998, source[16]

Pakistan does not harbourany aggressive designsagainst any state, but it is determined to defend its territorial integrity.... That is why we need to maintain a balance inconventional forcessuitably backed by minimum credible deterrence. Pakistan will continue to "develop her military potential that guarantees peace with honour and dignity". "Our military capability is basically for the deterrence purpose while peace remains the ultimate cherished goal for Pakistan..."

— Yousaf Raza Gillani,describing the officialnuclear weapons policystatement in 2012,source[17]

Rationale and persuasion

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Thesenior officials,economists,game theorists,andstrategistsaffiliated with Pakistan's government has persuaded multiple times for maintaining the Minimum Credible Deterrence.[18]The government officials points out that "Indo-US nuclear dealas well as cooperation in conventional field is likely to grow in India's favour, thus accelerating arms race in the region ".[18]Therefore, maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence" would require Pakistan to review its nuclear policy.[18]The government officials maintained that while Pakistan will continue to act with responsibility avoiding an arms race, it will not remain oblivious to the imperative of maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence".[18]

The unnamed official at theIslamabad Policy Research Institute(IPRI) stated that "the nuclear weapons programme has been exclusively driven by security considerations to ensure the survival and very existence of the state".[19]In 2012, Prime ministerYousaf Raza Gillanistated the comprehensive policy and quoted:

TheState of Pakistandoes not harbour any aggressive designs against any state, but it is determined to defend its territorial integrity. That is why, we need to maintain a balance in conventional forces suitably backed by minimum credible deterrence.... She (Pakistan) will continue to "develop her potential military deterrence that guarantees peace with honour and dignity....

— Yousaf Raza Gillani,Prime minister of Pakistan (2008-2012), source[17]

In 2010, a high ranking science minister of government of Pakistan publicly announced at the internationalconference on scienceafter delegating foreign ambassadors and scientists from all over the world: "Ournuclear capabilityis purely for defensive purposes, first believing in peaceful co-existence and reconciliation and will always strive for peace and prosperity in our region ".[20]

See also

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References

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  1. ^"Pakistan's latest nuclear antics in the form of Full Spectrum Deterrence".orfonline.org.Retrieved23 January2024.
  2. ^Ghumman, Khawar (15 July 2011)."N-deterrence to be pursued".Dawn Newspapers, 2011.Dawn Newspapers Group.Retrieved23 November2012.
  3. ^abSiddiqi, Muhammad Ali (20 April 1995)."N-deterrent vital to security, says PM Bhutto".Los Angeles Times.Archived fromthe originalon 9 June 2012.Retrieved18 November2011.
  4. ^Farah Zahra, PhD (Political Science) (12 August 2011)."Credible minimum nuclear deterrence".Daily Times.Retrieved19 July2012.The nuclear arms race in South Asia is not purely a quantitative matter; it encompasses a qualitative dimension where the nuclear weapons and delivery systems on both sides are improving in quality as well... dr. Farah Zahra
  5. ^abcdefghijkIISS."Nuclear policy, doctrine and planning Rationales for nuclear weapons".International Institute for Strategic Studies.Archived fromthe originalon 28 June 2012.Retrieved19 July2012.
  6. ^Kerr, Paul K.; Mary Beth Nikitin (10 May 2012)."Pakistan and Nuclear weapons".United States Government.United States Congress: Congressional Research Services. p. 1.Retrieved19 July2012.
  7. ^Tertrais, Bruno."No First Use, No Deterrence".Strafasia | Strategy, analysis, News and insight of Emerging Asia.Retrieved25 June2020.
  8. ^Dixit, J. N. (2 September 2003).India-Pakistan in War and Peace.ISBN9781134407583.
  9. ^See: Nuclear policy, doctrine and planning, Rationales for nuclear weapons at theInternational Institute for Strategic Studiespublished page.
  10. ^abcAbidi, Zawar Haider."Threat Reduction in South Asia".Zawar Haider Abidi.p. 6/15.Retrieved21 July2012.
  11. ^ANI, ANI (22 March 2011)."Peace-loving' Pakistan to continue credible minimum nuke deterrence policy".The Yahoo! News.Retrieved21 July2012.Pakistan does not wish to enter into a nuclear arms race, but will continue to maintain the policy of credible minimum deterrence, Pakistan's Air Force chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman has said
  12. ^"Pakistan will maintain minimum credible deterrence".Daily Times.28 February 2006. Archived fromthe originalon 25 April 2006.Retrieved21 July2012.
  13. ^Khan, Feroz Hassan (22 November 2012)."The Route to Nuclear Ambition"(google book).Eating grass: The making of the Pakistani bomb.Stanford, California: Stanford University Press. pp.119–120.ISBN978-0804776011.Retrieved9 January2013.
  14. ^Babar (MSc in Civil Engineering), Farhatullah."Bhutto's Footprints on Nuclear Pakistan".Zulfikar Ali Bhutto "The Myth of Independence".Farhatullah Babar and Courtesy The News International. Archived fromthe originalon 25 November 2010.Retrieved26 January2012.
  15. ^Anjali, Ghosh (2009).India's Foreign Policy Pakistan Factor.New Delhi: Repro India Ltd. p. 92.ISBN978-8131710258.
  16. ^Khan, Zafar."Pakistan's authorization of the nuclear testing programme: External and Internal Pressures".Zafar Khan, game theorist and nuclear strategist at theIslamabad Policy Research Institute(IPRI).Islamabad Policy Research Institute (1998).Retrieved21 July2012.
  17. ^abStaff reports (31 March 2012)."Pakistan to maintain conventional balance: PM".The Nation.Archivedfrom the original on 2 April 2012.Retrieved19 July2012.Our military capability is basically for deterrence purpose while peace remains the ultimate cherished goal for us. We believe that military weakness invites aggression from stronger nations
  18. ^abcdRasheed Khalid (2 February 2011)."Pakistan has to maintain minimum credible nuclear deterrence: expert".The News International.Retrieved19 July2012.
  19. ^Saman Zulfiqar."Pak minimum deterrence posture".Pakistan Observer.Retrieved19 July2012.
  20. ^"Pakistan's nuclear capability is purely for defensive purposes".Pakistan Atom Publishers.Retrieved19 July2012.Our nuclear capability is purely for defensive purposes. We believe in peaceful co-existence and reconciliation and will always strive for peace and prosperity in our region.

Concept bibliography

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Credited scholarly articles

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  • Haq, PhD (Economics), Professor Mahbub (27 June 1998)."The Nuclear Race in South Asia".Dr. Professor Mahbub-ul-Haq, Professor of Economics at Karachi University.This was the last public address of Dr. Haq at the North South Roundtable Conference in Easton, Maryland on 27 June 1998.Retrieved6 August2012."Why Pakistan reacted with nuclear test explosions, for it is an indictment of the lack of a Western strategy, not an indictment of Pakistan's irresponsibility. After India's nuclear tests in early May, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan armed forces debated whether or not to conduct their own nuclear tests and I am convinced they were resolved not to test as long as they could be provided with the right security assurances....
  • Shaikh, M. N."Credible nuclear deterrence and doctrine for Pakistan".M. N. Shaikh, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada.Retrieved6 August2012.
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