2012 United States Senate election in Montana
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County results Tester:40–50%50–60%60–70% Rehberg:40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana |
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The2012 United States Senate election in Montanawas held on November 6, 2012, alongside apresidential election,other elections to theUnited States Senatein other states, as well as elections to theUnited States House of Representativesand various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic senatorJon Testersuccessfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. RepresentativeDenny Rehbergwho received 44.9% of the vote andLibertariancandidate Dan Cox received 6.56% of the vote.[1][2]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidate
[edit]- Jon Tester,incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Denny Rehberg,U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in1996[3]
- Dennis Teske, farmer[4]
Withdrew
[edit]- Steve Daines,businessman and 2008 Republican nominee forLieutenant Governor of Montana(ran for the U.S. House of Representatives)[5]
Endorsements
[edit]- Conrad Burns,former U.S. Senator from Montana
- National Rifle Association of America
- Gun Owners of America
Results
[edit]The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Denny Rehberg | 105,632 | 76.2 | |
Republican | Dennis Teske | 33,079 | 23.8 | |
Total votes | 138,711 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman[7]
- Denny Rehberg(Republican), U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative
- Jon Tester(Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former state senator
Debates
[edit]Three debates were scheduled, including one with theLibertariancandidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain.[8]The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.[9]
- Complete video of debate,October 8, 2012.
- Complete video of debate,October 20, 2012
Campaign
[edit]Former president of the Montana Senate and farmerJon Testerwas elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbentConrad Burns.
As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.[10]
On February 5, 2011, U.S. RepresentativeDenny Rehbergannounced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate.[3]Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010,[11]but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination forMontana's at-large congressional district in 2012.Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seattwo years later.[5]
As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions fromWall Streetbanking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.[10]
TheNational Republican Senatorial Committeeaired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included adigitally manipulatedphoto of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers.[12]Another ad against Tester, from theKarl RovegroupCrossroads GPS,falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor ofEnvironmental Protection Agencyregulation of farm dust.[13]In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation.[14]The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.[15]
In early October 2012,Crossroads GPSannounced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[16]
Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Tester (D) | $11,699,935 | $10,377,126 | $1,334,858 | $0 |
Denny Rehberg (R) | $8,420,655 | $7,249,285 | $1,171,369 | $0 |
Source:Federal Election Commission[17][18] |
Top contributors
[edit]- Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.[19][20]
Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
---|---|---|---|
League of Conservation Voters | $82,332 | Alliance Resource Partners | $36,500 |
Visa Inc. | $47,400 | Exxon Mobil | $29,500 |
JPMorgan Chase & Co | $47,000 | Las Vegas Sands | $25,000 |
Thornton & Naumes | $46,600 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
WPP Group | $38,350 | Murray Energy | $24,068 |
Blackstone Group | $34,000 | Devon Energy | $20,400 |
Girardi & Keese | $30,000 | Arch Coal | $19,000 |
Pederson Group | $29,500 | Yellowstone Bank | $17,500 |
Comcast Corp | $28,500 | Marathon Oil | $13,750 |
First Interstate BancSystem | $28,400 | Koch Industries | $13,500 |
Top industries
[edit]Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
---|---|---|---|
Lawyers/Law firms | $1,084,445 | Oil & Gas | $327,969 |
Retired | $534,716 | Financial Institutions | $277,474 |
Lobbyists | $506,931 | Retired | $268,693 |
Financial Institutions | $438,763 | Leadership PACs | $267,000 |
Leadership PACs | $345,750 | Mining | $169,318 |
Commercial Banks | $299,818 | Lobbyists | $150,050 |
Real Estate | $280,945 | Real Estate | $121,080 |
Insurance | $211,009 | Misc Finance | $94,655 |
Misc Finance | $188,750 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $89,338 |
Health Professionals | $181,483 | Republican/Conservative | $76,855 |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Lean R(flip) | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
Real Clear Politics[25] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Denny Rehberg (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 48% | — | 6% |
Mason-Dixon[27] | March 14–16, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[28] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ±3.4% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[29] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ±2.4% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports[30] | February 22, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | 6% | 3% |
Rasmussen Reports[31] | April 2, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ±3.2% | 48% | 43% | 9% | — |
Rasmussen Reports[33] | May 2, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 43% | 53% | 2% | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports[34] | June 18, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports[35] | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling[36] | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ±3.8% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 3% |
Mason-Dixon[37] | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 48% | 1% | 6% |
MSU[38] | October 9, 2012 | 477 | ±4.6% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[39] | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ±3.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
Rasmussen Reports[40] | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
Public Policy Polling/LCV[41] | October 15–16, 2012 | 806 | ±3.5% | 46% | 44% | 7% | 3% |
Pharos Research[42] | October 19–21, 2012 | 828 | ±3.4% | 48% | 46% | — | 5% |
Pharos Research[43] | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ±3.5% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports[44] | October 29, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 49% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau[45] | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling[46] | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | 3.4% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 48% | 37% | — | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 42% | 49% | — | 9% |
Results
[edit]Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Tester(incumbent) | 236,123 | 48.58% | −0.58% | |
Republican | Denny Rehberg | 218,051 | 44.86% | −3.43% | |
Libertarian | Dan Cox | 31,892 | 6.56% | +4.01% | |
Total votes | 486,066 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratichold |
By county
[edit]County | Tester | Votes | Rehberg | Votes | Cox | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beaverhead | 31.84% | 1,532 | 59.77% | 2,876 | 8.4% | 404 | 4,812 |
Big Horn | 67.39% | 3,141 | 28.08% | 1,309 | 4.53% | 211 | 4,661 |
Blaine | 63.88% | 1,834 | 31.24% | 897 | 4.88% | 140 | 2,871 |
Broadwater | 33.01% | 995 | 57.47% | 1,732 | 9.52% | 287 | 3,014 |
Carbon | 45.9% | 2,691 | 47.55% | 2,788 | 6.55% | 384 | 5,863 |
Carter | 15.74% | 125 | 77.58% | 616 | 6.68% | 53 | 794 |
Cascade | 52.47% | 18,246 | 41.96% | 14,589 | 5.57% | 1,936 | 34,771 |
Chouteau | 48.19% | 1,374 | 46.33% | 1,321 | 5.47% | 156 | 2,851 |
Custer | 43.21% | 2,283 | 49.31% | 2,661 | 8.38% | 452 | 5,396 |
Daniels | 32.6% | 327 | 60.52% | 607 | 6.88% | 69 | 1,003 |
Dawson | 35.46% | 1,571 | 56.52% | 2,504 | 8.01% | 355 | 4,430 |
Deer Lodge | 69.55% | 3,122 | 23.37% | 1,049 | 7.08% | 318 | 4,489 |
Fallon | 29.78% | 422 | 59.28% | 840 | 10.94% | 155 | 1,407 |
Fergus | 33.94% | 2,063 | 58.12% | 3,533 | 7.95% | 483 | 6,709 |
Flathead | 37.17% | 16,223 | 55.38% | 24,171 | 7.45% | 3,252 | 43,646 |
Gallatin | 51.63% | 24,781 | 42.47% | 20,386 | 5.9% | 2,834 | 48,001 |
Garfield | 14.31% | 101 | 79.04% | 558 | 6.66% | 47 | 708 |
Glacier | 69.6% | 3,118 | 24.84% | 1,113 | 5.56% | 249 | 4,480 |
Golden Valley | 36.25% | 174 | 57.5% | 275 | 6.25% | 30 | 480 |
Granite | 38.53% | 657 | 52.49% | 895 | 8.97% | 153 | 1,705 |
Hill | 58.93% | 4,060 | 34.27% | 2,361 | 6.81% | 469 | 6,890 |
Jefferson | 40.92% | 2,685 | 51.65% | 3,389 | 7.42% | 487 | 6,561 |
Judith Basin | 35.94% | 441 | 57.13% | 701 | 6.93% | 85 | 1,227 |
Lake | 49.25% | 6,561 | 42.92% | 5,717 | 7.83% | 1,043 | 13,321 |
Lewis and Clark | 54.34% | 18,189 | 40.17% | 13,446 | 5.49% | 1,839 | 33,474 |
Liberty | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.09% | 61 | 1,002 |
Lincoln | 34.62% | 3,091 | 56.90% | 5,080 | 8.48% | 757 | 8,928 |
Madison | 33.2% | 1,516 | 58.91% | 2,690 | 7.88% | 360 | 4,566 |
McCone | 32.9% | 332 | 61.05% | 616 | 6.05% | 61 | 1,009 |
Meagher | 34.93% | 342 | 55.57% | 544 | 9.5% | 93 | 979 |
Mineral | 42.66% | 866 | 47.44% | 963 | 9.9% | 201 | 2,030 |
Missoula | 63.49% | 36,488 | 31.64% | 18,184 | 4.87% | 2,799 | 57,471 |
Musselshell | 28.58% | 684 | 61.14% | 1,463 | 10.28% | 246 | 2,393 |
Park | 48.22% | 4,260 | 43.94% | 3,882 | 7.84% | 693 | 8,835 |
Petroleum | 24.41% | 73 | 67.56% | 202 | 8.03% | 24 | 299 |
Phillips | 27.2% | 607 | 65.64% | 1,465 | 7.17% | 160 | 2,232 |
Pondera | 43.53% | 1,187 | 49.69% | 1,355 | 6.78% | 185 | 2,727 |
Powder River | 23.32% | 239 | 70.15% | 719 | 6.54% | 67 | 1,025 |
Powell | 41.75% | 1,167 | 51.2% | 1,431 | 7.05% | 197 | 2,795 |
Prairie | 33.33% | 236 | 59.32% | 420 | 7.34% | 52 | 708 |
Ravalli | 38.65% | 8,602 | 53.87% | 11,990 | 7.48% | 1,666 | 22,258 |
Richland | 30.18% | 1,406 | 62.95% | 2,933 | 6.87% | 320 | 4,659 |
Roosevelt | 61.41% | 2,269 | 33.42% | 1,235 | 5.17% | 191 | 3,695 |
Rosebud | 48.0% | 1,704 | 44.45% | 1,578 | 7.55% | 268 | 3,550 |
Sanders | 34.31% | 2,044 | 54.04% | 3,219 | 11.65% | 694 | 5,957 |
Sheridan | 42.23% | 812 | 51.74% | 995 | 6.03% | 116 | 1,923 |
Silver Bow | 69.29% | 11,673 | 24.62% | 4,148 | 6.09% | 1,026 | 16,847 |
Stillwater | 36.66% | 1,732 | 56.84% | 2,684 | 6.52% | 308 | 4,724 |
Sweet Grass | 31.19% | 661 | 62.67% | 1,328 | 6.13% | 130 | 2,119 |
Teton | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.4% | 212 | 3,313 |
Toole | 34.01% | 721 | 57.03% | 1,209 | 8.96% | 190 | 2,120 |
Treasure | 33.98% | 157 | 54.55% | 252 | 11.47% | 53 | 462 |
Valley | 44.98% | 1,749 | 46.91% | 1,824 | 8.1% | 315 | 3,888 |
Wheatland | 36.79% | 365 | 56.35% | 559 | 6.85% | 68 | 992 |
Wibaux | 27.39% | 149 | 62.32% | 339 | 10.29% | 56 | 544 |
Yellowstone | 47.15% | 32,565 | 46.44% | 32,077 | 6.42% | 4,432 | 69,074 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Chouteau(largest municipality:Fort Benton)
- Gallatin(largest city:Bozeman)
- Yellowstone(largest municipality:Billings)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Mineral(Largest city:Superior)
- Sheridan(Largest city:Plentywood)
See also
[edit]- 2012 United States Senate elections
- 2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
- 2012 Montana gubernatorial election
References
[edit]- ^Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010)."Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear".Billings Gazette.RetrievedNovember 21,2010.
- ^Cohen, Patricia (November 2020)."Montana".The New York Times.
- ^abJohnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011)."It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester".Billings Gazette.RetrievedFebruary 5,2011.
- ^Dennison, Mike (January 19, 2012)."Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race".Billings Gazette.RetrievedJanuary 20,2012.
- ^abJohnson, Charles S. (February 3, 2011)."Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester".Billings Gazette.RetrievedFebruary 3,2011.
- ^"2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS"(PDF).Secretary of State of Montana.Archived fromthe original(PDF)on January 21, 2013.RetrievedSeptember 24,2012.
- ^"Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race".Billings Gazette.March 8, 2012.RetrievedMarch 9,2012.
- ^Raju, Manu (October 5, 2012)."Senate battle hits Big Sky country".Politico.
- ^"Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races".Billings Gazette.September 26, 2012.
- ^abMike Dennison (July 15, 2011)."Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money".missoulian.com.RetrievedJuly 25,2011.
- ^Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010)."Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester".KTVM-TV.Archived fromthe originalon November 16, 2010.RetrievedNovember 21,2010.
- ^Gouras, Matt (September 30, 2010)."GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand".Missoulian TV.RetrievedNovember 2,2011.
- ^McAuliff, Michael (November 11, 2011)."Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)".Huffington Post.RetrievedNovember 12,2011.
- ^Drajem, Mark (October 17, 2011)."EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review".Bloomberg L.P.RetrievedNovember 12,2011.
- ^"U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157".United States Senate.October 6, 2011.RetrievedNovember 12,2011.
- ^Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012)."Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests".Politico.com.RetrievedOctober 2,2012.
- ^Tester Campaign Finances
- ^Rehberg Campaign Finances
- ^OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
- ^[http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1OpenSecrets
- ^finances by industry
- ^"2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".The Cook Political Report.Archived fromthe originalon August 29, 2018.RetrievedSeptember 20,2018.
- ^"2012 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball.RetrievedSeptember 20,2018.
- ^"2012 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings.The Rothenberg Political Report.RetrievedSeptember 20,2018.
- ^"2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012".Real Clear Politics.RetrievedSeptember 20,2018.
- ^abcdPublic Policy Polling
- ^Mason-Dixon
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^Mason-DixonArchivedSeptember 27, 2012, at theWayback Machine
- ^MSU
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Public Policy Polling/LCV
- ^Pharos Research[permanent dead link]
- ^Pharos Research
- ^Rasmussen Reports
- ^Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau
- ^Public Policy Polling
- ^"2012 Statewide General Election Canvass"(PDF).Montana Secretary of State.RetrievedJanuary 13,2019.
- ^"2012 Statewide General Election Canvass"(PDF).Montana Secretary of State.Archived fromthe original(PDF)on July 5, 2016.RetrievedFebruary 4,2016.
- ^"2012 General Election Results By County".Montana Secretary of State.RetrievedFebruary 10,2018.
External links
[edit]- Elections and Governmentat the Montana Secretary of State
- Candidate issue positionsatOn the Issues
- Outside spendingatSunlight Foundation
- Campaign contributionsatOpenSecrets
Official campaign websites