2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina
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| Elections in South Carolina |
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The2016 United States Senate election in South Carolinawas held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of theUnited States Senateto represent the State ofSouth Carolina,concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election,as well asother electionsto the United States Senate in other states andelectionsto theUnited States House of Representativesand variousstateandlocal elections.Both major parties held their primaries on June 14.
IncumbentRepublicanSenatorTim Scottwon re-election to a first full term in office.[1]
This was the second U.S. Senate election in South Carolina (and the second of three consecutive elections for this seat) where both major party nominees wereblack,and the third overall since the passage of theSeventeenth Amendment.[a]
Background[edit]
Two-term Republican senatorJim DeMintwas re-elected with 61.48% of the votein 2010.He resigned at the start of 2013 to become President ofThe Heritage Foundationand U.S. RepresentativeTim ScottofSouth Carolina's 1st congressional districtwas appointed to replace him by GovernorNikki Haley.[2]Scott subsequently won thespecial election in 2014for the remaining two years of the term.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Thomas Dixon,pastor and community activist (also running with Green Party nomination)[3]
Declined[edit]
- Joyce Dickerson,Richland CountyCouncilwoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in2014(running for reelection)[4][5]
General election[edit]
Candidates[edit]
- Tim Scott(Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
- Thomas Dixon(Democratic, Green), pastor and community activist[6]
- Bill Bledsoe (Libertarian, Constitution)[6]
- Michael Scarborough (American), attorney[6][7]
Debates[edit]
| Dates | Location | Scott | Dixon | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24, 2016 | Greenville,South Carolina | Participant | Participant | Full debate-C-SPAN |
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[11] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[12] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling[edit]
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info onPhabricatorand onMediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Thomas Dixon (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 38% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,642 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,583 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,501 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,588 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,762 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
| Starboard Communications (R)ArchivedSeptember 14, 2016, at theWayback Machine | September 7–9, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.8% | 58% | 22% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 9–10, 2016 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 45% | 30%[13] | 6%[14] | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Joyce Dickerson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Joyce Dickerson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 7–8, 2015 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 53% | 25% | 23% |
- with Bakari Sellers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Bakari Sellers (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
- with Leon Lott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Leon Lott (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 27% | 19% |
- with Jim Hodges
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Jim Hodges (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 32% | 15% |
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Scott (incumbent) | 1,241,609 | 60.57% | -0.55% | |
| Democratic | Thomas Dixon[17] | 757,022 | 36.93% | -0.16% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Bledsoe[18] | 37,482 | 1.83% | N/A | |
| American | Michael Scarborough | 11,923 | 0.58% | -1.17% | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,857 | 0.09% | +0.05% | |
| Total votes | 2,049,893 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]
- Calhoun(largest town:St. Matthews)
- Clarendon(Largest city:Manning)
References[edit]
- ^abEmily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015)."Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016".Roll Call.Archived fromthe originalon January 29, 2015.RetrievedJanuary 29,2015.
- ^Jeff Zeleny (December 17, 2012)."Rep. Tim Scott Chosen to Replace Jim DeMint as South Carolina Senator".The New York Times.
- ^Rindge, Brenda (February 22, 2016)."Thomas Dixon to challenge U.S. Sen. Tim Scott".The Post and Courier.Archived fromthe originalon October 13, 2016.RetrievedFebruary 23,2016.
- ^"SOUTH CAROLINA: Richland Co Councilwoman & '14 nom Joyce Dickerson (D) back for a second run vs US Sen Tim Scott (R)".Politics1.Twitter. November 2, 2015.RetrievedMarch 14,2016.
- ^"Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election".South Carolina Election Commission.RetrievedMarch 18,2016.
- ^abcd"Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election".South Carolina Election Commission.RetrievedAugust 14,2016.
- ^Crowder, Mike (May 15, 2016)."American Party of SC nominates candidates for a handful of offices".WRHI.RetrievedAugust 9,2016.
- ^"2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".The Cook Political Report.RetrievedMarch 26,2021.
- ^"2016 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball.RetrievedSeptember 19,2016.
- ^"2016 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings.The Rothenberg Political Report.RetrievedNovember 3,2016.
- ^"Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".Daily Kos.RetrievedMarch 27,2021.
- ^"Battle for the Senate 2016".Real Clear Politics.RetrievedOctober 28,2016.
- ^Fusion voting total- 28% as D, 2% as G
- ^Bill Bledsoe (L) with 4% and Michael Scarborough (A) with 2%
- ^"2016 Statewide General Election official results".South Carolina State Election Commission.RetrievedDecember 20,2016.
- ^"2016 South Carolina Senatorial Election Turnout Data".Archived fromthe originalon December 20, 2016.RetrievedDecember 10,2016.
- ^Aggregated total includes 37,610 votes Dixon received under the Working Families Party, and 14,872 votes received under the Green Party.
- ^Aggregated total includes 12,652 votes received under the Constitution Party.