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2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States Senate elections.For the other Senate election in Oklahoma held in parallel, see2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma.
Not to be confused with2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
←2016 November 8, 2022(2022-11-08) 2028→
Nominee James Lankford Madison Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 739,960 369,370
Percentage 64.30% 32.10%
Lankford:40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%>90%
Horn:40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%>90%
Tie:40–50%50%No votes
U.S. senatorbefore election

James Lankford
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

James Lankford
Republican

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The2022 United States Senate election in Oklahomawas held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of theUnited States Senateto represent the State ofOklahoma.[1]Incumbent senatorJames Lankfordwon re-election to a second full term, defeating cybersecurity professional Madison Horn (no relation to formerU.S. RepresentativeKendra Horn,who ran for theconcurrent special election to the Class II seat) in a landslide, winning all 77 counties with more than 50% of the vote in each.

Lankford was first elected in2014 special electionwith 68% of the vote, succeeding retiring fellow RepublicanTom Coburn.[2]He won re-election to a first full term in2016with 68% of the vote.[3]

Theprimary electionsfor theRepublican,Democratic,andLibertarianparties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022, with runoffs taking place on August 23, 2022.[1]All candidates had to file between the days of April 13–15, 2022.[1]

Despite his comfortable victory, with slightly over 64% of the vote received this was Lankford's worst performance in his career, as in each of his previous two elections he won nearly 68%. This also marked the best performance by a Democratic candidate since2004in theClass IIIseat.

Republican primary

[edit]

On March 16, 2021, Jackson Lahmeyer announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for United States Senate seat held byJames Lankford.While Lankford had not formally announced, he was expected to run for reelection.[4]On April 6, Lankford officially announced he would seek reelection in an interview with theTulsa World.[5]The Oklahomanreported that Joan Farr announced her candidacy for the Oklahoma andKansasU.S. Senate seats sometime in August.[6]On September 28, state senatorNathan Dahmannounced his campaign for Lankford's seat.[6]In November theTulsa Worldreported that Jessica Jean Garrison, the daughter of former state senatorEarl Garrison,would also campaign in the contested Republican primary.[7]On February 28, 2022, Nathan Dahm announced he had switched his campaign to thespecial election in the Class 2 seat.[8]Jessica Jean Garrison also switched her campaign to the special election when filing. Lankford won the June primary with 67% of the vote.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew before filing

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

James Lankford and Jackson Lahmeyer courted the endorsement ofDonald Trump,45th president of the United States, but Trump did not endorse a candidate prior to the primary.[10][11]

On June 29, 2021, Lankford's campaign published its supposed endorsement by state representativeKevin McDugle.McDugle later went on social media claiming to have never made the endorsement; Lankford's campaign subsequently removed his name from their endorsement list.[12]

Jackson Lahmeyer
Federal Executive Branch officials
State Senators
State representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
James Lankford
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions

Debates

[edit]

The Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma offered to host a debate for the Republican primary. Invitations were extended to candidates Jackson Lahmeyer and James Lankford, but Lankford refused the invitation.[52]

2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
PParticipantAAbsentNNon-inviteeIInviteeWWithdrawn
Joan
Farr 		Jackson
Lahmeyer 		James
Lankford
1 Cancelled Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma - - N I I

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joan
Farr 		Jackson
Lahmeyer 		James
Lankford 		Other Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 4% 12% 68% – 15%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 2% 8% 74% – 16%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 0% 10% 63% 3%[b] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) December 15–19, 2021 253 (RV) ± 6.2% – 8% 56% 12%[c] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) September 29 – October 3, 2021 253 (RV) ± 6.2% – 21% 62% 4%[d] 12%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
Lankford
  • 40–50%
  • 50–60%
  • 60–70%
  • 70–80%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican James Lankford(incumbent) 243,132 67.83%
Republican Jackson Lahmeyer 94,572 26.38%
Republican Joan Farr 20,761 5.79%
Total votes 358,465 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Madison Horn, cybersecurity professional[53][54]

Eliminated in runoff

[edit]

Eliminated in initial primary

[edit]
  • Arya Azma, security trader[56]
  • Dennis Baker[56]
  • Jo Glenn, attorney[57]
  • Brandon Wade, machinery assembler[56]

Failed to file

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

First round

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Initial primary results by county:
Map legend
  • Horn—40–50%
  • Horn—<40%
  • Bollinger—<40%
  • Baker—<40%
  • Bollinger/Baker tie—<40%
  • Wade—<40%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Madison Horn 60,691 37.19%
Democratic Jason Bollinger 27,374 16.77%
Democratic Dennis Baker 22,467 13.77%
Democratic Jo Glenn 21,198 12.99%
Democratic Brandon Wade 19,986 12.25%
Democratic Arya Azma 11,478 7.03%
Total votes 163,194 100.0%

Runoff

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Madison Horn 60,929 65.48%
Democratic Jason Bollinger 32,121 34.52%
Total votes 93,050 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Solid R November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[63] Solid R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Safe R November 3, 2021
Politico[65] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[66] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[67] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[68] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[69] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[70] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
James Lankford (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Madison Horn (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		James
Lankford (R) 		Madison
Horn (D) 		Other
[e] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight September 15 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 56.9% 34.9% 8.2% Lankford +22.0
270towin October 11 - November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 54.3% 36.8% 8.9% Lankford +17.5
Average 55.6% 35.8% 8.6% Lankford +19.8
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		James
Lankford (R) 		Madison
Horn (D) 		Other Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 56% 36% 3%[f] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 38% 7%[g] 3%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 33% 3%[h] 8%
62% 34% 4%[i] –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 35% 5%[j] 9%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 36% 7%[k] 4%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 37% 3%[l] 9%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) – 52% 40% 2%[m] 6%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 34% – 14%
–(L)[n] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 27% 11%[o] 13%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 35% 4%[p] 13%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 59% 29% – 12%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[80][81]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican James Lankford(incumbent) 739,960 64.30% −3.44%
Democratic Madison Horn 369,370 32.10% +7.52%
Independent Michael Delaney 20,907 1.82% N/A
Libertarian Kenneth Blevins 20,495 1.78% −1.22%
Total votes 1,150,732 100.0%
Turnout 1,150,732 50.12%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republicanhold

By congressional district

[edit]

Lankford won all 5 congressional districts.[82]

District Lankford Horn Representative
1st 59.0% 37.6% Kevin Hern
2nd 73.3% 23.3% Markwayne Mullin(117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen(118th Congress)
3rd 70.1% 26.2% Frank Lucas
4th 63.1% 33.0% Tom Cole
5th 57.6% 38.9% Stephanie Bice

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Garrison with 3%
  3. ^Dahm with 9%, "Other" with 3%
  4. ^Dahm with 3%, "Other" with 1%
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  7. ^Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  8. ^Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  9. ^Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  10. ^Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 2%
  11. ^Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  12. ^Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  13. ^Delaney with 2%; Blevins with 0%
  14. ^This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  15. ^Blevins with 9%; Delaney with 2%
  16. ^Delaney with 4%

References

[edit]
  1. ^abc"2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines"(PDF).oklahoma.gov.Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived fromthe original(PDF)on April 25, 2022.RetrievedOctober 13,2021.
  2. ^"Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 4, 2014".Oklahoma.gov.Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived fromthe originalon April 8, 2021.RetrievedMarch 25,2021.
  3. ^"Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 8, 2016".Oklahoma.gov.Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived fromthe originalon April 8, 2021.RetrievedMarch 25,2021.
  4. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (March 17, 2021)."Tulsa pastor challenges Lankford for Senate with boost from Trump loyalist Michael Flynn".Tulsa World.RetrievedMarch 19,2021.
  5. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (April 6, 2021)."Sen. Lankford says reelection bid will be about him being him".Tulsa World.RetrievedApril 7,2021.
  6. ^abcCasteel, Chris (September 28, 2021)."State senator Nathan Dahm joins race against incumbent Sen. James Lankford".The Oklahoman.RetrievedSeptember 29,2021.
  7. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (November 14, 2021)."Political notebook: State and local officials awaiting details on infrastructure bill money".Tulsa World.RetrievedNovember 14,2021.
  8. ^abCanfield, Kevin (February 28, 2022)."Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat".Tulsa World.RetrievedFebruary 28,2022.
  9. ^abc"OK Election Results - June 28, 2022".Oklahoma State Election Board.
  10. ^Swan, Jonathan (March 17, 2021)."Kissing the ring: Inside the GOP courtship of Trump's endorsement".Axios.RetrievedMarch 21,2021.
  11. ^Mantyla, Kyle (December 14, 2021)."Right Wing Bonus Tracks: The Dumb Vote".Right Wing Watch.RetrievedJanuary 4,2022.
  12. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstGorman, Reese (June 29, 2021)."Endorsements for Lankford begin ahead of 2022 GOP primary".The Norman Transcript.RetrievedJune 30,2021.
  13. ^Gilbert, Amanda (March 16, 2021)."Former Trump advisor Michael Flynn endorses Tulsa pastor challenging Lankford for Senate seat".Fox 23.RetrievedMarch 18,2021.
  14. ^Krehbiel, Randy (August 19, 2021)."Lankford's 2022 campaign launch contrasts with primary opponent's".Tulsa World.RetrievedAugust 22,2021.
  15. ^Martin, Stacy (May 28, 2022)."Jackson Lahmeyer poses the question: Can he beat James Lankford?".The Oklahoma City Sentinel.RetrievedMay 29,2022.Also in Lahmeyer's corner:... Senator Warren Hamilton R-Oklahoma
  16. ^Gorman, Reese (September 12, 2021)."Republican primary a" real time test "of party's state".The Norman Transcript.RetrievedSeptember 12,2021.
  17. ^abBrown, Trevor (June 6, 2022)."The Misinformation Election: Lies, Conspiracy Theories Prominent in Many GOP Races".Oklahoma Watch.RetrievedJune 6,2022.The U.S. Senate hopeful [Lahmeyer] has received endorsements... from... Roger Stone, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
  18. ^Mantyla, Kyle (July 19, 2021)."Right Wing Bonus Tracks: Commander of the Spirit Force".Right Wing Watch.RetrievedJuly 23,2021.
  19. ^Guff, Samantha; Russell, Lacey (May 29, 2021)."How a pastor's spread of Covid misinformation divided one Tennessee family B".CNN.RetrievedJuly 23,2021.
  20. ^Cillizza, Chris (July 7, 2021)."The Big Lie is now a litmus test for this Republican senator".CNN.RetrievedJuly 7,2021.
  21. ^Krehbiel, Randy (November 23, 2021)."GOP hopeful Jackson Lahmeyer endorsed by Trump ally Roger Stone".Tulsa World.RetrievedNovember 24,2021.
  22. ^Krehbiel, Randy (July 17, 2021)."U.S. Senate Challenger Lahmeyer reports $200,000 in second quarter contributions".Tulsa World.RetrievedJuly 18,2021.
  23. ^Brodey, Sam (July 7, 2021)."Oklahoma GOP Turns on Senator for Not Worshipping Trump Enough".The Daily Beast.RetrievedJuly 8,2021.
  24. ^Tapp, Kenny Bob (July 23, 2021)."Cimarron County Republican Party Endorses Jackson Lahmeyer in U.S. Senate Race".OKGrassroots.RetrievedOctober 8,2021.
  25. ^Krehbiel, Randy (May 22, 2022)."Political notebook: Abortion bill aftershocks reverberate".Tulsa World.RetrievedMay 22,2022.
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  27. ^Martin, Stacy (June 22, 2022)."Jackson Lahmeyer gains endorsement and gives one – and he shows well in polling".The Oklahoma City Sentinel.RetrievedJune 23,2022.
  28. ^abcKrehbiel, Randy (April 22, 2022)."Political notebook: State election board to hear 12 contested candidacy petitions".Tulsa World.RetrievedApril 24,2022.
  29. ^"2022 OKHPR-PAC Primary Race Endorsements".OKHPR. June 4, 2022.RetrievedJune 5,2022.
  30. ^"Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Jackson Lahmeyer for U.S. Senate".Republicans for National Renewal. December 17, 2021.RetrievedMay 20,2022.
  31. ^abCasteel, Chris (March 5, 2022)."Sen. James Lankford challenger Jackson Lahmeyer claims support of grassroots Republicans".The Oklahoman.RetrievedMarch 6,2022.
  32. ^abFelder, Ben (April 10, 2021)."Inhofe defends his vote for Biden's win as Republican officials call for party unity".The Frontier.RetrievedApril 10,2021.
  33. ^abReese, Gorman (January 16, 2022)."Senator claims country under tyranny at Cleveland County GOP event".The Norman Transcript.RetrievedFebruary 1,2022.
  34. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (March 27, 2022)."Political notebook: Deadline behind it, Legislature looks for a breather".Tulsa World.RetrievedMarch 27,2022.
  35. ^abFelder, Ben (March 29, 2021)."In pro-Trump Oklahoma, a challenge to an incumbent senator taps into election anger".The Frontier.RetrievedMarch 29,2021.
  36. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacadaeafagahaiajakalamanaoapaqarasatauavawaxayazbabbbcbdbebfbgbhbibjbkblbmbnbobpbqbrbsbtbubvbwbxbybzcacbcccd"Lankford Announces First Leadership Endorsements One-Year Out from GOP Primary".Oklahoma Farm Report.June 29, 2021.RetrievedAugust 7,2021.
  37. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (October 17, 2021)."Political notebook: Polling indicates Oklahomans more concerned about COVID and less happy with elected leaders".Tulsa World.RetrievedOctober 17,2021.
  38. ^abMcGuinan, Patrick (September 8, 2021)."With Susan B. Anthony List endorsement in hand, James Lankford leavens state endorsements with Mike Pompeo's strong affirmation".The Oklahoma City Sentinel.RetrievedMarch 20,2022.
  39. ^abKrehbiel, Randy (September 19, 2021)."Political notebook: Trump called Tulsa rally 'biggest f—ing mistake' in new Bob Woodward book".Tulsa World.RetrievedSeptember 19,2021.
  40. ^abcdCasteel, Chris (February 12, 2022)."James Lankford buys ad time as opponent fumes about conservative group's endorsement".The Oklahoman.RetrievedFebruary 12,2022.
  41. ^abGorman, Reese (March 14, 2022)."On The Trail #2".The Frontier.RetrievedMarch 14,2022.
  42. ^ab"Editorial: Tulsa Beacon endorsements".Tulsa Beacon. June 16, 2022.RetrievedJune 26,2022.
  43. ^ab"Political notebook: Hofmeister event in Tulsa Sunday".Tulsa World. May 15, 2022.RetrievedMay 15,2022.
  44. ^abcdKrehbiel, Randy (June 5, 2022)."Political notebook: Markwayne Mullin says Second Amendment" purity "takes priority in gun violence discussions".Tulsa World.RetrievedJune 6,2022.
  45. ^abMcGuinan, Patrick (May 28, 2022)."Boosted with NFIB endorsement, James Lankford leads Jackson Lahmeyer in U.S. Senate race as June 28 Republican primary nears".The Oklahoma City Sentinel.RetrievedMay 29,2022.Sen. Lankford's re-election drive secured the support of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). "Oklahoma small businesses are proud to endorse Senator Lankford for re-election," said the group's state director, Jerrod Shouse.
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  49. ^ab"Endorsed Candidates".Pro-Israel America.Archived fromthe originalon December 20, 2021.RetrievedJanuary 21,2022.
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  53. ^"Meet Madison Horn, the self-described" Conservative Democrat "running for US Senate in Oklahoma".KRMG.November 7, 2021.RetrievedDecember 11,2021.
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  66. ^"Battle for the Senate 2022".RCP. January 10, 2022.
  67. ^"2022 Election Forecast".Fox News. May 12, 2022.RetrievedMay 12,2022.
  68. ^"2022 Election Forecast".DDHQ.July 20, 2022.RetrievedJuly 20,2022.
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  71. ^"Endorsement of Senator James Lankford".Truth Social.
  72. ^"Endorsement: Sen. James Lankford should get another term, but needs to abandon divisiveness".October 28, 2022.
  73. ^"Endorsed Candidates - National Women's Political Caucus".www.nwpc.org.RetrievedOctober 12,2022.
  74. ^"Media Center - No Dem Left Behind".www.nodemleftbehind.com.RetrievedOctober 12,2022.
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  76. ^"Political Endorsements - Sally's List".sallyslist.org.RetrievedOctober 12,2022.
  77. ^"2022 Candidates for Common Good".Vote Common Good.RetrievedNovember 1,2022.
  78. ^"Oklahoma Endorsed Candidates 2022 | CWA District 6".
  79. ^"Endorsement: Madison Horn for US Senate".The Black Wall Street Times.November 2, 2022.RetrievedNovember 3,2022.
  80. ^"November 8 2022 Oklahoma Official results".results.okelections.us.Oklahoma State Election Board.RetrievedNovember 9,2022.
  81. ^"Current Registration Statistics by County"(PDF).oklahoma.gov.November 1, 2022.RetrievedDecember 9,2022.
  82. ^Results.docs.google.com(Report).
[edit]
Official campaign websites
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