2024 United States presidential election in Montana
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Montana |
|---|
 |
The2024 United States presidential election in Montanais scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States electionsin which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbiawill participate.Montanavoters will choose electors to represent them in theElectoral Collegevia a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionmentdue to the2020 United States censusin which the state gained a seat.[1]
Though somewhat less conservative than its neighboringGreat Plainsstates, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate sinceBill Clintondid so in1992nor has it been competitive at this level since DemocratBarack Obamacame up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in2008.Montana is favored to be carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic presidentJoe Bidenis running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia,New Jersey,New Mexico,andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden(incumbent) | 93,751 | 91.1% | 20 | ||
| No preference | 9,141 | 8.9% | |||
| Write-in votes | 9 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 102,901 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| Source:[3] | |||||
Republican primary[edit]
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia,New Jersey,New Mexico,andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 163,531 | 90.9% | |||
| No Preference | 16,381 | 9.1% | |||
| Write-in votes | 6 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 179,918 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
| Source:[4] | |||||
Green primary[edit]
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Preference | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Total: | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Source:[5] | |||||
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | May 30, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[14] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[A] | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | 14%[b] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[B] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[C] | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| Emerson College[D] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[E] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[D] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 49% | 28% | 6% | 4% | 13% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Montana
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
- Partisan clients
- ^Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
- ^Poll sponsored by theMontana Republican Party
- ^Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
- ^abPoll sponsored byNexstar Media Group
- ^Poll sponsored byKULR-TV
References[edit]
- ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archivedfrom the original on August 19, 2021.RetrievedAugust 20,2021.
- ^Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023)."Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision".CNBC.
- ^"Montana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024".NBC News.RetrievedJune 4,2024.
- ^"Montana Presidential Election Results 2024".NBC News.RetrievedJune 4,2024.
- ^"2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024".RetrievedJune 5,2024.
- ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report.December 19, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 11,2024.
- ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections.April 26, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 11,2024.
- ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics.June 29, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 11,2024.
- ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill.December 14, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 11,2024.
- ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis.December 30, 2023.RetrievedJanuary 11,2024.
- ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN.RetrievedJanuary 14,2024.
- ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist.RetrievedJune 12,2024.
- ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight.RetrievedJune 11,2024.
- ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics.June 26, 2024.RetrievedJune 26,2024.
