Bill James

For other people with similar names, seeBill James (disambiguation)andWilliam James (disambiguation).

Bill James
James in 2010
Born	George William James (1949-10-05)October 5, 1949 Holton, Kansas,U.S.
Alma mater	University of Kansas
Occupations	Baseball historian statistician
Years active	1977–present
Known for	Sabermetrics

George William James(born October 5, 1949)is an Americanbaseballwriter, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books about baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he namedsabermetricsafter theSociety for American Baseball Research(SABR),scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose.

In 2006,Timenamed him in theTime100as one of the most influential people in the world.In 2003, James was hired as senior advisor on Baseball Operations for theBoston Red Soxand worked for the team for 17 years during which they won four World Series championships.

Early life

James was born inHolton, Kansas.He joined theUnited States Armyin 1971. After his service, he graduated from theUniversity of Kansasin 1973 with degrees in English and economics, and in 1975 with a degree in education.

Career

The Bill James Baseball Abstracts

An aspiring writer and obsessive fan, James began writing baseball articles after leaving theUnited States Armyin his mid-twenties. Many of his first baseball writings came while he was doing night shifts as a security guard at theStokely-Van Camp'spork and beans cannery. Unlike most writers, his pieces did not recount games in epic terms or offer insights gleaned from interviews with players. A typical James piece posed a question (e.g.,"Which pitchers and catchers allow runners to steal the most bases?" ), and then presented data and analysis that offered an answer.

Editors considered James's pieces so unusual that few believed them suitable for their readers. In an effort to reach a wider audience, James began self-publishing an annual book titledThe Bill James Baseball Abstract,beginning in 1977. The first edition, titled1977 Baseball Abstract: Featuring 18 categories of statistical information that you just can't find anywhere else,presented 68 pages of in-depth statistics compiled from James's study ofbox scoresfrom the preceding season and was offered for sale through a small advertisement inThe Sporting News.Seventy-five people purchased the booklet.The 1978 edition, subtitledThe 2nd annual edition of baseball's most informative and imaginative review,sold 250 copies.Beginning in 1979, James wrote an annual preview of the baseball season forEsquire,and continued to do so through 1984.

The first three editions of theBaseball Abstractgarnered respect for James's work, including a very favorable review byDaniel OkrentinSports Illustrated.New annual editions added essays on teams and players. By 1982 sales had increased tenfold, and a media conglomerate agreed to publish and distribute future editions.

While writers had published books about baseball statistics before (most notablyEarnshaw Cook'sPercentage Baseball,in the 1960s), few had ever reached a mass audience. Attempts to imitate James's work spawned a flood of books and articles that continues to this day.

Post-Abstracts work

In 1988, James ceased writing theAbstract,citing workload-related burnout and concern about the volume of statistics on the market. He has continued to publish hardcover books about baseball history, which have sold well and received admiring reviews. These books include three editions ofThe Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract(1985, 1988, 2001, the last entitledThe New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract).

James has also written several series of new annuals:

• The Baseball Book(1990–1992) was a loosely organized collection of commentary, profiles, historical articles, and occasional pieces of research. James's assistantRob Neyerwas responsible for much of the research, and wrote several short pieces. Neyer went on to become a featured baseball columnist atESPNandSB Nation.
• The Player Ratings Book(1993–95) offered statistics and 50-word profiles aimed at thefantasy baseballenthusiast.
• The Bill James Handbook(2003–present) provides past-season statistics and next-season projections for Major League players and teams, and career data for all current Major League players. Results for theFielding Bible Awards,an alternative to theGold Glove Awardsvoted on by a 10-person panel that includes James, are also included.
• The Bill James Gold Mine(2008–2010) was a collection of new essays and never-before-seen statistics, as well as profiles of players and teams.
• Playing off the name of the earlier series,Solid Fool's Gold: Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom(2011) was a mixed collection of both baseball-related and miscellaneous pieces, culled from the Bill James Online archives (see below).

In 2008, James launchedBill James Online.Subscribers could read James's new, original writing and interact with one another—as well as with James—in a question-and-answer format. The web site also offered new "profiles" of teams and players full of facts and statistics that hoped to map what James has termed "the lost island of baseball statistics". On June 9, 2023, James wrote an article for the site announcing that it would soon be closed in order for James to "focus on other projects".

STATS, Inc.

In an essay published in the 1984Abstract,James vented his frustration aboutMajor League Baseball's refusal to publish play-by-play accounts of every game. James proposed the creation of Project Scoresheet, a network of fans that would work together to collect and distribute this information.

While the resulting non-profit organization never functioned smoothly, it worked well enough to collect accounts of every game from 1984 through 1991. James's publisher agreed to distribute two annuals of essays and data—the 1987 and 1988 editions ofBill James Presents The Great American Baseball Statbook(though only the first of these featured writing by James).

The organization was eventually disbanded, but many of its members went on to form for-profit companies with similar goals and structure.STATS, Inc.,the company James joined, provided data and analysis to every major media outlet before being acquired byFoxSports in 2001.

Innovations

Among the statistical innovations attributable to James are:

• Runs created.A statistic intended to quantify a player's contribution to runs scored, as well as a team's expected number of runs scored. Runs created is calculated from other offensive statistics. James's first version of it was:$$RC={\frac {(H+BB)\times TB}{AB+BB}}$$Applied to an entire team or league, the statistic correlates closely (usually within 5%) to that team's or league's actual runs scored. Since James first created the statistic, sabermetricians have refined it to make it more accurate, and it is now used in many different variations.
• Range factor.A statistic that quantifies the defensive contribution of a player, calculated in its simplest form as (A is anassist,PO is aputout):$$RF={\frac {9\times (A+PO)}{\text{Innings}}}$$The statistic is premised on the notion that the total number of outs that a player participates in is more relevant in evaluating his defensive play than the percentage of cleanly handled chances as calculated by the conventional statisticfielding percentage.
• Defensive Efficiency Rating. A statistic that shows the percentage of balls in play a defense turns into an out. It is used to help determine a team's defensive ability. The formula is:$$DER=1-{\frac {H+ROE-HR}{PA-K-BB-HBP-HR}}$$
• Win shares.A unifying statistic intended to allow the comparison of players at different positions, as well as players of different eras. Win Shares incorporates a variety of pitching, hitting and fielding statistics. One drawback of Win Shares is the difficulty of computing it.
• Pythagorean Winning Percentage.A statistic explaining the relationship of wins and losses to runs scored and runs allowed. The statistic correlates closely to a team's actual winning percentage. Its simplest formula is:$$\mathrm {Pythagorean~W\%} ={\frac {R^{2}}{R^{2}+RA^{2}}}$$
• Game scoreis a metric to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. It has since been improved byTom Tango.
• Major League Equivalency. A metric that usesminor leaguestatistics to predict how a player is likely to perform at the major league level.
• The Brock2 System. A system for projecting a player's performance over the remainder of his career based on past performance and the aging process.
• Similarity scores.Scoring a player's statistical similarity to other players, providing a frame of reference for players of the distant past. Examples:Lou Gehrigcomparable toDon Mattingly;Joe JacksontoTony Oliva.
• Secondary average.A statistic that attempts to measure a player's contribution to an offense in ways not reflected in batting average. Secondary averages tend to be similar to batting averages, but can vary wildly, from less than.100 to more than.500 in extreme cases. The formula is (ISO isisolated power):$$\mathrm {SecA} ={\frac {BB+(TB-H)+(SB-CS)}{AB}}={\frac {BB+(SB-CS)}{AB}}+ISO$$
• Power/Speed Number.A statistic that attempts to consolidate the various "clubs" of players with impressive numbers of both home runs and stolen bases (e.g., the30–30 club(Bobby Bondswas well known for being a member), the40–40 club(Jose Cansecowas the first to perform this feat), and even the 25–65 club (Joe Morganin the '70s)). The formula is:$$\mathrm {PSN} ={\frac {2\times HR\times SB}{HR+SB}}$$
• Approximate Value. A system of cutoffs designed to estimate the value a player contributed to various category groups (including his team) to study broad questions such as "how do players age over time".
• "Temperature gauge" to determine how "hot" a player is, based on recent performance.The gauge has been used inNESNRed Sox telecasts and has provoked mixed reactions from critics.

Although James may be best known as an inventor of statistical tools, he has often written on the limitations of statistics and urged humility concerning their place amid other kinds of information about baseball.To James, context is paramount: he was among the first to emphasize the importance of adjusting traditional statistics forpark factorsand to stress the role of luck in a pitcher's win–loss record.Many of his statistical innovations are arguably less important than the underlying ideas. When he introduced the notion ofsecondary average,it was as a vehicle for the then-counterintuitive concept thatbatting averagerepresents only a fraction of a player's offensive contribution. (Theruns-created statisticplays a similar role vis-à-vis the traditionalRBI.) Some of his contributions to the language of baseball, like the idea of the "defensive spectrum",border on being entirely non-statistical.

Acceptance and employment in mainstream baseball

Oakland Athleticsgeneral managerBilly Beanebegan applying sabermetric principles to running his low-budget team in the early 2000s, to notable effect, as chronicled inMichael Lewis' bookMoneyball.

In 2003, James was hired by a former reader,John Henry,the new owner of theBoston Red Sox.

One point of controversy was in handling the relief pitching of the Red Sox.James had previously published analysis of the use of thecloserin baseball, and had concluded that the traditional use of the closer both overrated the abilities of that individual and used him in suboptimal circumstances. He wrote that it is "far better to use yourrelief acewhen the score is tied, even if that is the seventh inning, than in the ninth inning with a lead of two or more runs. "The Red Sox in 2003 staffed their bullpen with several marginally talented relievers.Red Sox managerGrady Littlewas never fully comfortable with the setup, and designated unofficial closers and reshuffled roles after a bad outing. When Boston lost a number of games due to bullpen failures, Little reverted to a traditional closer approach and movedByung-hyun Kimfrom being a starting pitcher to a closer.The Red Sox did not follow James's idea of a bullpen with no closer, but with consistent overall talent that would allow the responsibilities to be shared.Red Sox relieverAlan Embreethought the plan could have worked if the bullpen had not suffered injuries.During the 2004 regular seasonKeith Foulkewas used primarily as a closer in the conventional model; however, Foulke's usage in the 2004 postseason was along the lines of a relief ace with multiple inning appearances at pivotal times of the game.Houston AstrosmanagerPhil Garneralso employed a relief ace model with his use ofBrad Lidgein the 2004 postseason.

During his tenure with the Red Sox, James published several new sabermetric books (see#Bibliographybelow). Indeed, although James was typically tight-lipped about his activities on behalf of the Red Sox, he is credited with advocating some of the moves that led to the team's firstWorld Serieschampionship in 86 years, including the signing of non-tendered free agentDavid Ortiz,the trade forMark Bellhorn,and the team's increased emphasis onon-base percentage.

After the Red Sox suffered througha disastrous 2012 season,Henry stated that James had fallen "out of favor [in the front office] over the last few years for reasons I really don't understand. We've gotten him more involved recently in the central process and that will help greatly."

On October 24, 2019, James announced his retirement from the Red Sox, saying that he had "fallen out of step with the organization" and added that he hadn't earned his paycheck with the Red Sox for the last couple of years.During his time with the team, Bill James received fourWorld Series ringsfor the team's 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 World Series titles.

Other writing

James has written twotrue crimebooks,Popular Crime: Reflections on the Celebration of Violence(2011) and - together with his daughter Rachel McCarthy James -The Man from the Train(2017). The latter is an attempt to link scores of murders of entire families in the early 20th century United States to a single perpetrator. Those murders include theVillisca axe murders.The Jameses propose a solution to the murders based on the signature elements these killings share with each other.

James is a fan of theUniversity of Kansas men's basketball teamand has written about basketball. He has created a formula for what he calls a "safe lead" in the sport.

In culture

Michael Lewis,in his 2003 bookMoneyball,dedicates a chapter to James's career and sabermetrics as background for his portrayal ofBilly Beaneand the Oakland Athletics' unlikely success.

James was inducted into theBaseball Reliquary'sShrine of the Eternalsin 2007.

James was profiled on60 Minuteson March 30, 2008, in his role as a sabermetric pioneer and Red Sox advisor. In 2010, he was inducted into the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame.

James made a guest appearance onThe Simpsons2010 episode "MoneyBART".He claimed "I've made baseball as fun as doing your taxes."

Steven Soderbergh's planned film adaptation ofMoneyballwould have featured an animated version of James as a "host".This script was discarded when directorBennett Millerand writerAaron Sorkinsucceeded Soderbergh on the project. Ultimately,the 2011 filmmentions James several times. His bio is briefly recapped, and Billy Beane is depicted telling John Henry that Henry's hiring of James is the reason Beane is interested in the Red Sox general manager job.

Controversies

Dowd Report controversy

In hisBaseball Book 1990,James heavily criticized the methodology of theDowd Report,which was an investigation (commissioned by baseball commissionerBart Giamatti) on the gambling activities ofPete Rose.James reproached commissioner Giamatti and his successor,Fay Vincent,for their acceptance of the Dowd Report as the final word on Rose's gambling. (James's attitude on the matter surprised many fans, especially after the writer had been deeply critical of Rose in the past, especially what James considered to be Rose's selfish pursuit ofTy Cobb's all-time record for base hits.)

James expanded his defense of Rose in his 2001 bookThe New Historical Baseball Abstract,with a detailed explanation of why he found the case against Rose flimsy. James wrote "I would characterize the evidence that Rose bet on baseball as...well, not quite non-existent. It is extremely weak." This countered the popular opinion that the case against Rose was a slam dunk, and several critics claimed that James misstated some of the evidence in his defense of Rose.Derek ZumstegofBaseball Prospectuswrote an exhaustive review of the case James made and concluded: "James' defense of Rose is filled with oversights, errors in judgment, failures in research, and is a great disservice to the many people who have looked to him for a balanced and fair take on this complicated and important issue."

In 2004, Rose admitted publicly that he had bet on baseball and confirmed the Dowd Report was correct. James remained steadfast, continuing to insist that the evidence available to Dowd at the time was insufficient to reach the conclusion that it did.

Paterno controversy

On November 4, 2011,Jerry Sanduskywas indicted for committing sex crimes against young boys, which brought thePenn State child sex abuse scandalto national attention. On December 11, 2011, James published an article called "The Trial of Penn State", depicting an imaginary trial in which Penn State defended itself against charges of "acting rashly and irresponsibly in the matter ofJoe Paterno,in such a manner that [they] defamed, libeled and slandered Paterno, unfairly demolishing his reputation. "

On July 12, 2012, theFreeh reportwas released, charging Paterno and three other University officials with covering up reports of sexual assaults and enabling the attacker to prey on other children for more than a decade, often in Penn State facilities. Soon afterwards, during an interview on ESPN radio, James claimed that the Freeh report's characterizations of Paterno as a powerful figure were wrong, and that it was not Paterno's responsibility to report allegations of child molestation to the police. "[Paterno] had very few allies. He was isolated and he was not nearly as powerful as people imagine him to have been."When asked if he knew anyone who had showered with a boy they were not related to, James said it was a common practice when he was growing up. "That was actually quite common in the town I grew up in. That was quite common in America 40 years ago."

The July 2012 interview comments were widely criticized.Rob Neyerwrote in defense of James.James's employer, the Boston Red Sox, issued a statement disavowing the comments James made and saying that he had been asked not to make further public comments on the matter.

"Replaceable players" controversy

On November 7, 2018, James participated in aTwitterconversation regarding comments made by agentScott Borasabout teams "tanking".James wrote:

If the players all retired tomorrow, we would replace them, the game would go on; in three years it would make no difference whatsoever. The players are NOT the game, any more than the beer vendors are.

This was arguably consistent with thoughts James had publicly expressed prior to his affiliation with the Red Sox. In an article inThe 1988 Bill James Baseball Abstract,he had written:

This nation could support, without any detectable loss of player quality, at a very, very minimum, 200 major league teams.

Nonetheless, in the context of James's association with the Red Sox front office and baseball's checkered labor history (including alleged collusion amongst the owners in the previous offseason to curb free agent salaries), the tweets were taken by many as inflammatory.Major League Baseball Players Associationexecutive directorTony Clarkcalled James's comments "reckless and insulting".Other active or former players also objected.James told theNew York Times:

I don't know that the idea that the game endures and we're all just passing through it is inherently an offensive idea. But if I phrased it in an offensive way, that was not my intention.

The Red Sox responded by issuing a statement saying:

Bill James is a consultant to the Red Sox. He is not an employee, nor does he speak for the club. His comments on Twitter were inappropriate and do not reflect the opinions of the Red Sox front office or its ownership group. Our Championships would not have been possible without our incredibly talented players — they are the backbone of our franchise and our industry. To insinuate otherwise is absurd.

Personal life

James married Susan McCarthy in 1978. They have three children.

In January 2024, James announced that he had suffered astroke,which hampered the use of his right hand.

Bibliography

Baseball

• Bill James Baseball Abstract(annual editions published 1977–1988)
• The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract(1985; revised edition 1988)ISBN978-0394537139
• This Time Let's Not Eat the Bones(1989)ISBN978-0394577142(selection of comments from Abstracts and articles)
• The Bill James Baseball Book(annual editions published 1990–1992)
• The Politics of Glory(1994) (revised asWhatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?),ISBN978-0684800882
• The Bill James Player Ratings Book(annual editions published 1993–1996)
• The Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers(1997)ISBN978-0684806983
• Bill James Present STATS All-Time Major League Handbook(1998; 2nd ed. 2000)ISBN978-1884064814
• Bill James Present STATS All-Time Major League Sourcebook(1998)ISBN978-1884064531
• The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract(2001)ISBN978-0684806976
• Win Shares(2002)
• Win Shares Digital Update(2002) (PDF form only)
• The Bill James Handbook(annual editions published 2003–present)
• The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers(2004, with co-authorRob Neyer)ISBN978-0743261586
• The Bill James Gold Mine(annual editions published 2008–2010,ISBN978-0879463205,ISBN978-0879463694)
• Solid Fool's Gold(2011),ISBN978-0879464592(articles from Bill James Online website)
• Fools Rush Inn(2014),ISBN978-0879464974(more articles from Bill James Online website)

Crime history

• Popular Crime – Reflections on the Celebration of Violence(ISBN978-1-4165-5273-4,published 2011)
• The Man From the Train(2017),ISBN978-1-4767-9625-3

Books about James

• The Mind of Bill James(2006) ISBN
• How Bill James Changed Our View of Baseball: by Colleagues, Critics, Competitors and Just Plain Fans(2007)ISBN978-0879463175

See also

• Baseball Prospectus
• Defensive spectrum
• Keltner list
• Similarity score
• Win shares

References

• Baseball Prospectus(2005).Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning.New York City:Workman Publishing Company.ISBN978-0-7611-4018-4.RetrievedMarch 3,2011.

Further reading

• Lewis, Michael(April 10, 2003).Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.New York:W. W. Norton & Company.pp. 45–47.ISBN0-393-05765-8.

External links

• Bill James Online–interactions with James through statistics, articles, conversations and more
• Works of Bill James
• Audio interviewbyJesse Thorn,public radio programThe Sound of Young America(April 29, 2008)
• Chronister, Levi (April 25, 2004)."Grassroots Guru".Lawrence Journal-World(Lawrence, KS).
• Interview at Baseball Digest Daily – Part I,Baseball Digest
• Interview at Baseball Digest Daily – Part II
• Interview at Baseball Digest Daily – Part III
• McGrath, Ben (July 14, 2003)."The Professor of Baseball".The New Yorker
• Wall Street Journalprofile
• Okrent, Daniel(May 25, 1981)."He Does It by the Numbers".Sports Illustrated.Archived fromthe originalon February 4, 2009.
• Wright, Craig R."Dick Allen:Another View".White Sox Interactive.– contrary to James
• Schwarz, Alan(July 18, 2006)."25 For 25: Don Fehr, Peter Gammons, Pat Gillick, Bo Jackson, Bill James".25 for 25: Stars in theBaseball AmericaUniverse.Baseball America.
• Henry, John(May 8, 2006)."Scientists & Thinkers: Bill James".The 2006 Time 100.Time.
• Surowiecki, James(June 10, 2003)."Moneyball Redux: Slate talks to the man who revolutionized baseball.".Slate.
• Lederer, Bill (February 28, 2005)."Breakfast with Bill James".Baseball Analysts (baseballanalysts.com).
• Bill JamesatLibrary of Congress,with 18 library catalog records