Emerging technologies

Emerging technologiesaretechnologieswhose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generallynewbut also include older technologies finding new applications. Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing thestatus quo.

Emerging technologies are characterized by radical novelty (in application even if not in origins), relatively fast growth, coherence, prominent impact, and uncertainty and ambiguity. In other words, an emerging technology can be defined as "a radically novel and relatively fast growing technology characterised by a certain degree of coherence persisting over time and with the potential to exert a considerable impact on the socio-economic domain(s) which is observed in terms of the composition of actors, institutions and patterns of interactions among those, along with the associated knowledge production processes. Its most prominent impact, however, lies in the future and so in the emergence phase is still somewhat uncertain and ambiguous."^[1]

Emerging technologies include a variety of technologies such aseducational technology,information technology,nanotechnology,biotechnology,robotics,andartificial intelligence.^{[note 1]}

New technological fields may result from thetechnological convergenceof different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence brings previously separate technologies such as voice (and telephony features), data (and productivity applications) and video together so that they share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.

Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field forcompetitive advantage;^[2]converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of the impact, status and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies varies.

History of emerging technologies[edit]

In thehistory of technology,emerging technologies^[3]^[4]are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields oftechnology.

Over centuries innovative methods and new technologies have been developed and opened up. Some of these technologies are due to theoretical research, and others from commercialresearch and development.

Technological growth includes incremental developments anddisruptive technologies.An example of the former was the gradual roll-out ofDVD(digital video disc) as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technologycompact disc.By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and makes it redundant, for example, the replacement of horse-drawn carriages by automobiles and other vehicles.

Emerging technology debates[edit]

Many writers, includingcomputer scientist Bill Joy,^[5]have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity's future. Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites forgoodorevil.They could use it as "good shepherds" for the rest of humanity or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for the mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology.^[6]

Advocates of the benefits oftechnological changetypically see emerging and converging technologies as offering hope for the betterment of thehuman condition.CyberphilosophersAlexander BardandJan Söderqvistargue inThe Futurica Trilogythat while Man himself is basically constant throughout human history (geneschange very slowly), all relevant change is rather a direct or indirect result of technological innovation (memeschange very fast) since new ideas always emanate from technology use and not the other way around.^[7]Man should consequently be regarded as history's main constant and technology as its main variable. However, critics of the risks of technological change, and even some advocates such astranshumanistphilosopherNick Bostrom,warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers, perhaps even contribute to theextinction of humanityitself; i.e., some of them could involveexistential risks.^[8]^[9]

Muchethical debatecenters on issues ofdistributive justicein allocating access to beneficial forms of technology. Some thinkers, includingenvironmental ethicist Bill McKibben,oppose the continuing development of advanced technology partly out of fear that its benefits will be distributed unequally in ways that could worsen theplight of the poor.^[10]By contrast,inventor Ray Kurzweilis amongtechno-utopianswho believe that emerging and converging technologies could and willeliminate povertyand abolish suffering.^[11]

Some analysts such as Martin Ford, author ofThe Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future,^[12]argue that as information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significantunemploymentas machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs.

As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs may be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning^[13]may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge-based jobs that require significant education. This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels, stagnant or falling wages for most workers, and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever-larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could lead to depressedconsumer spendingand economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy.^[14]

Emerging technologies

NASA Fuel cell stack
Direct-methanol cell.
Solid-state air batteries
Li-Air composition

3D IC components.
Master and the slave boards.^[15]

TheSemantic Web Stack
Semantic layer architecture
RFID Transceivers.
Activatespassive RFID chip.

Examples of emerging technologies[edit]

Artificial intelligence[edit]

Artificial intelligence(AI) is the sub intelligence exhibited by machines or software, and the branch ofcomputer sciencethat develops machines and software with animal-like intelligence. Major AI researchers and textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents," where anintelligent agentis a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success.John McCarthy,who coined the term in 1956, defines it as "the study of making intelligent machines".

The central functions (or goals) of AI research include reasoning, knowledge,planning,learning,natural language processing(communication),perceptionand the ability tomove and manipulate objects.General intelligence (or "strong AI") is still among the field's long-term goals. Currently, popular approaches include deep learning, statistical methods, computational intelligence and traditional symbolic AI. There is an enormous number of tools used in AI, including versions of search and mathematical optimization, logic, methods based on probability and economics, and many others.

3D printing[edit]

See also:Ai CAD libraries^{[broken anchor]}

3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, has been posited byJeremy Rifkinand others as part of thethird industrial revolution.^[17]

Combined with Internet technology, 3D printing would allow for digital blueprints of virtually any material product to be sent instantly to another person to be produced on the spot, making purchasing a product online almost instantaneous.

Although this technology is still too crude to produce most products, it is rapidly developing and created a controversy in 2013 around the issue of3D printed firearms.^[18]

Gene therapy[edit]

Gene therapy was first successfully demonstrated in late 1990/early 1991 foradenosine deaminase deficiency,though the treatment was somatic – that is, did not affect the patient's germ line and thus was not heritable. This led the way to treatments for other genetic diseases and increased interest ingerm line gene therapy– therapy affecting the gametes and descendants of patients.

Between September 1990 and January 2014, there were around 2,000 gene therapy trials conducted or approved.^[19]

Cancer vaccines[edit]

Acancer vaccineis avaccinethat treats existingcanceror prevents the development of cancer in certain high-risk individuals. Vaccines that treat existing cancer are known astherapeuticcancer vaccines. There are currently no vaccines able to prevent cancer in general.

On April 14, 2009, TheDendreonCorporation announced that their Phase III clinical trial ofProvenge,a cancer vaccine designed to treat prostate cancer, had demonstrated an increase in survival. It receivedU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) approval for use in the treatment of advanced prostate cancer patients on April 29, 2010.^[20]The approval of Provenge has stimulated interest in this type of therapy.^[21]

Cultured meat[edit]

Cultured meat,also calledin vitro meat,clean meat,cruelty-free meat,shmeat,andtest-tube meat,is an animal-flesh product that has never been part of a living animal with exception of thefetal calf serumtaken from a slaughtered cow. In the 21st century, several research projects have worked onin vitromeat in the laboratory.^[22]Thefirst in vitro beefburger,created by a Dutch team, was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013.^[23]There remain difficulties to be overcome beforein vitromeat becomes commercially available.^[24]Cultured meat is prohibitively expensive, but it is expected that the cost could be reduced to compete with that of conventionally obtained meat as technology improves.^[25]^[26]In vitromeat is also an ethical issue. Some argue that it is less objectionable than traditionally obtained meat because it does not involve killing and reduces the risk of animal cruelty, while others disagree with eating meat that has not developed naturally.^{[citation needed]}

Nanotechnology[edit]

Nanotechnology(sometimes shortened tonanotech) is the manipulation of matter on anatomic,molecular,andsupramolecularscale. The earliest widespread description of nanotechnology^[27]^[28]referred to the particular technological goal of precisely manipulating atoms and molecules for fabrication of macroscale products, also now referred to asmolecular nanotechnology.A more generalized description of nanotechnology was subsequently established by theNational Nanotechnology Initiative,which defines nanotechnology as the manipulation of matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100nanometers.This definition reflects the fact thatquantum mechanicaleffects are important at this scale, and so the definition shifted from a particular technological goal to a research category inclusive of all types of research and technologies that deal with the special properties of matter that occur below the given size threshold.

Robotics[edit]

Roboticsis the branch oftechnologythat deals with the design, construction, operation, and application ofrobots,^[29]as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing. These technologies deal with automated machines that can take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes, or resemble humans in appearance, behavior, and/or cognition. A good example of a robot that resembles humans isSophia,a socialhumanoid robotdeveloped byHong Kong-based companyHanson Roboticswhich was activated on April 19, 2015. Many of today's robots are inspired by nature contributing to the field ofbio-inspired robotics.

Stem-cell therapy[edit]

Stem cell therapyis an intervention strategy that introduces new adult stem cells into damaged tissue in order to treat disease or injury. Manymedical researchersbelieve that stem cell treatments have the potential to change the face of human disease and alleviate suffering.^[30]The ability ofstem cellsto self-renew and give rise to subsequent generations with variable degrees of differentiation capacities^[31]offers significant potential for generation of tissues that can potentially replace diseased and damaged areas in the body, with minimal risk of rejection and side effects.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-modified T cells have raised among other immunotherapies for cancer treatment, being implemented against B-cell malignancies. Despite the promising outcomes of this innovative technology, CAR-T cells are not exempt from limitations that must yet to be overcome in order to provide reliable and more efficient treatments against other types of cancer.^[32]

Distributed ledger technology[edit]

Distributed ledger or blockchain technology provides a transparent and immutable list of transactions. A wide range of uses has been proposed for where an open, decentralised database is required, ranging fromsupply chainstocryptocurrencies.

Smart contractsare self-executing transactions which occur when pre-defined conditions are met. The aim is to provide security that is superior to traditional contract law, and to reduce transaction costs and delays. The original idea was conceived byNick Szaboin 1994,^[33]but remained unrealised until the development of blockchains.^[34]^[35]

Augmented reality[edit]

This type of technology where digital graphics are loaded onto live footage has been around since the 20th century, but thanks to the arrival of more powerful computing hardware and the implementation ofopen source,this technology has been able to do things that we never thought were possible. Some ways in which we have used this technology can be through apps such asPokémon Go,SnapchatandInstagramfilters and other apps that create fictional things in real objects.^[36]

Multi-use rockets[edit]

This technology can be attributed toElon Muskand the space companySpaceX,where instead of creating single use rockets that have no purpose after their launch, they are now able to land safely in a pre-specified place where they can recover them and use them again in later launches.^[36]This technology is believed to be one of the most important factors for the future of space travel, making it more accessible and also less polluting for the environment.^{[dubious–discuss]}.

Development of emerging technologies[edit]

As innovation drives economic growth, and large economic rewards come from new inventions, a great deal of resources (funding and effort) go into the development of emerging technologies. Some of the sources of these resources are described below.

Research and development[edit]

Research and developmentis directed towards the advancement of technology in general, and therefore includes development of emerging technologies.See alsoList of countries by research and development spending.

Applied researchis a form of systematic inquiry involving the practical application of science. It accesses and uses some part of the research communities' (the academia's) accumulated theories, knowledge, methods, and techniques, for a specific, often state-, business-, or client-driven purpose.

Science policyis the area of public policy which is concerned with the policies that affect the conduct of the science and research enterprise, including the funding of science, often in pursuance of other national policy goals such as technological innovation to promote commercial product development, weapons development, health care and environmental monitoring.

Patents[edit]

Patentsprovide inventors with a limited period of time (minimum of 20 years, but duration based on jurisdiction) of exclusive right in the making, selling, use, leasing or otherwise of their novel technological inventions.Artificial intelligence,robotic inventions, new material, or blockchain platforms may be patentable, the patent protecting the technological know-how used to create these inventions.^[37]In 2019,WIPOreported thatAIwas the most prolific emerging technology in terms of number of patent applications and granted patents, theInternet of thingswas estimated to be the largest in terms of market size. It was followed, again in market size, by big data technologies, robotics, AI, 3D printing and the fifth generation of mobile services (5G).^[38]Since AI emerged in the 1950s, 340000 AI-related patent applications were filed by innovators and 1.6 million scientific papers have been published by researchers, with the majority of all AI-related patent filings published since 2013. Companies represent 26 out of the top 30 AI patent applicants, with universities or public research organizations accounting for the remaining four.^[39]

DARPA[edit]

TheDefense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)is an agency of the U.S. Department of Defense responsible for the development of emerging technologies for use by the military.

DARPA was created in 1958 as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) by President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Its purpose was to formulate and execute research and development projects to expand the frontiers of technology and science, with the aim to reach beyond immediate military requirements.

Projects funded by DARPA have provided significant technologies that influenced many non-military fields, such as theInternetand Global Positioning System technology.

Technology competitions and awards[edit]

There are awards that provide incentive to push the limits of technology (generally synonymous with emerging technologies). Note that while some of these awards reward achievement after-the-fact via analysis of the merits of technological breakthroughs, others provide incentive via competitions for awards offered for goals yet to be achieved.

TheOrteig Prizewas a $25,000 award offered in 1919 by French hotelierRaymond Orteigfor the first nonstop flight between New York City and Paris. In 1927, underdogCharles Lindberghwon the prize in a modified single-engine Ryan aircraft called theSpirit of St. Louis.In total, nine teams spent $400,000 in pursuit of the Orteig Prize.

The XPRIZE series of awards, public competitions designed and managed by the non-profit organization called theX Prize Foundation,are intended to encourage technological development that could benefit mankind. The most high-profile XPRIZE to date was the $10,000,000 Ansari XPRIZE relating to spacecraft development, which was awarded in 2004 for the development ofSpaceShipOne.

TheTuring Awardis an annual prize given by theAssociation for Computing Machinery(ACM) to "an individual selected for contributions of a technical nature made to the computing community." It is stipulated that the contributions should be of lasting and major technical importance to the computer field. The Turing Award is generally recognized as the highest distinction in computer science, and in 2014 grew to $1,000,000.

TheMillennium Technology Prizeis awarded once every two years byTechnology Academy Finland,an independent fund established by Finnish industry and the Finnish state in partnership. The first recipient wasTim Berners-Lee,inventor of theWorld Wide Web.

In 2003,David Gobelseed-funded theMethuselah Mouse Prize(Mprize) to encourage the development of new life extension therapies in mice, which are genetically similar to humans. So far, three Mouse Prizes have been awarded: one for breaking longevity records to Dr. Andrzej Bartke ofSouthern Illinois University;one for late-onset rejuvenation strategies to Dr. Stephen Spindler of theUniversity of California;and one to Dr. Z. Dave Sharp for his work with the pharmaceutical rapamycin.

Role of science fiction[edit]

Science fictionhas often affectedinnovationand new technology by presenting creative, intriguing possibilities for technological advancement. For example, many rocketry pioneers were inspired by science fiction.^[40]The documentaryHow William Shatner Changed the Worlddescribes a number of examples of imagined technologies that became real.

In the media[edit]

The termbleeding edgehas been used to refer to some new technologies, formed as anallusionto the similar terms "leading edge"and"cutting edge".It tends to imply even greater advancement, albeit at an increased risk because of the unreliability of thesoftwareorhardware.^[41]The first documented example of this term being used dates to early 1983, when an unnamed banking executive was quoted to have used it in reference toStorage Technology Corporation.^[42]

Notes[edit]

^Other examples of developments described as "emerging technologies" can be foundhere– O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference 2008.

References[edit]

Citations

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^International Congress Innovation and Technology XXI: Strategies and Policies Towards the XXI Century, & Soares, O. D. D. (1997). Innovation and technology: Strategies and policies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.^{[page needed]}
^Einsiedel, Edna F., ed. (2009).Emerging Technologies: From Hindsight to Foresight.UBC Press.ISBN 978-0-7748-5865-6.
^Emerging technologies: where is the federal government on the high tech curve?: hearing before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology of the Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives, One Hundred Sixth Congress, second session, April 24, 2000
^See:Wired Magazine,"Why the future doesn't need us",
^Joy, Bill(2000)."Why the future doesn't need us".Wired.RetrievedNovember 14,2005.
^Bard, Alexander; Söderqvist, Jan (May 8, 2012).The Futurica Trilogy.Stockholm Text.ISBN 978-9187173240.
^Bostrom, Nick(2002)."Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios".Journal of Evolution and Technology.9(1).RetrievedFebruary 21,2006.
^Warwick, K:“March of the Machines”, University of Illinois Press, 2004
^McKibben, Bill(2003).Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age.Times Books.ISBN 978-0-8050-7096-5.
^Kurzweil, Raymond(2005).The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.Viking Adult.ISBN 978-0-670-03384-3.
^Ford, Martin R. (2009),The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future,Acculant Publishing,ISBN 978-1448659814.
^Ford, Martin (April 14, 2011)."Machine Learning: A job killer?".econfuture.RetrievedMay 28,2017.
^Saenz, Aaron (December 15, 2009)."Martin Ford Asks: Will Automation Lead to Economic Collapse?".singularityhub.com.RetrievedMay 28,2017.
^Circuit boardsbegan development in the 1960s. An example, among others, includes Stacked Printed Circuit Board by Victor F. Dahlgren et al.U.S. patent 3,409,732.See also:System in Package(SiP) orChip Stack MCM
^Thisconceptual drawingmeasures in diameter 200+ m (660 ft.+).
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^Siegelbaum, D.J. (April 23, 2008)."In Search of a Test-Tube Hamburger".Time.Archived fromthe originalon January 22, 2010.RetrievedApril 30,2009.
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^Fountain, Henry (May 12, 2013)."Engineering the $325,000 In Vitro Burger".The New York Times.RetrievedMay 28,2017.
^Temple, James (February 23, 2009)."The Future of Food: The No-kill Carnivore".Portfolio.com.RetrievedAugust 7,2009.
^Preliminary Economics Study of Cultured Meat ArchivedOctober 3, 2015, at theWayback Machine,eXmoor Pharma Concepts, 2008
^Drexler, K. Eric (1986).Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology.Doubleday.ISBN 978-0-385-19973-5.
^Drexler, K. Eric (1992).Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation.New York: John Wiley & Sons.ISBN 978-0-471-57547-4.
^"robotics".Oxford Dictionaries. Archived fromthe originalon May 18, 2011.RetrievedFebruary 4,2011.
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^Weissman IL (January 2000)."Stem cells: units of development, units of regeneration, and units in evolution".Cell.100(1): 157–68.doi:10.1016/S0092-8674(00)81692-X.PMID 10647940.S2CID 12414450.as cited inGurtner GC; Callaghan MJ; Longaker MT (2007). "Progress and potential for regenerative medicine".Annu. Rev. Med.58:299–312.doi:10.1146/annurev.med.58.082405.095329.PMID 17076602.
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