Jump to content

Carbon budget

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Carbon budget andemissionreduction scenarios needed to reach the two-degree target agreed to in theParis Agreement(without netnegative emissions,based on peak emissions)[1]

Acarbon budgetis a concept used inclimate policyto help setemissionsreduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that would result in limitingglobal warmingto a given level ".[2]: 2220 It can be expressed relative to thepre-industrial period(the year 1750). In this case, it is thetotal carbon budget.Or it can be expressed from a recent specified date onwards. In that case it is theremaining carbon budget.[2]: 2220 

A carbon budget that will keep global warming below a specified temperature limit is also called anemissions budgetorquota,orallowable emissions.[3][4][5]Apart from limiting theglobal temperature increase,another objective of such an emissions budget can be to limitsea level rise.[6]

Scientists combine estimates of various contributing factors to calculate the carbon budget. The estimates take into account the available scientific evidence as well as value judgments or choices.[7][8][9]

Global carbon budgets can be further sub-divided into national emissions budgets. This can help countries set their own emission goals. Emissions budgets indicate a finite amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted over time, before resulting in dangerous levels of global warming. The change in global temperature is independent of the source of these emissions, and is largely independent of the timing of these emissions.[10][11]

To translate global carbon budgets to the country level, a set of value judgments have to be made on how to distribute the remaining carbon budget over all the different countries. This should take into account aspects of equity and fairness between countries[8]as well as other methodological choices.[12]There are many differences between nations, such as population size, level of industrialisation, historic emissions, and mitigation capabilities. For this reason, scientists are attempting to allocate global carbon budgets among countries using various principles of equity.[13]

Definition[edit]

TheIPCC Sixth Assessment Reportsdefinescarbon budgetas the following two concepts:[2]: 2220 

  • "An assessment of carbon cycle sources and sinks on a global level, through the synthesis of evidence for fossil fuel and cement emissions, emissions and removals associated with land use andland-use change,ocean and natural land sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the resulting change in atmospheric CO2concentration. This is referred to as theglobal carbon budget.";or
  • "The maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic CO2emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level with a given probability, taking into account the effect of other anthropogenic climate forcers. This is referred to as thetotal carbon budgetwhen expressed starting from the pre-industrial period, and as theremaining carbon budgetwhen expressed from a recent specified date. "

Global carbon budgets can be further divided into national emissions budgets, so that countries can set specific climate mitigation goals.

An emissions budget may be distinguished from anemissions target,as an emissions target may be internationally or nationally set in accordance with objectives other than a specific global temperature and are commonly applied to the annual emissions in a single year as well.

Estimations[edit]

Recent and currently remaining carbon budget[edit]

Historical (unrestrained) carbon budget: Cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget since 1850 illustrate how source and sink components have been out of balance, causing an approximately 50% rise in atmospheric CO2.[14]
Fossil CO2emissions: global; territorial; by fuel type (incl cement); per capita[15]

Several organisations provide annual updates to the remaining carbon budget, including theGlobal Carbon Project,theMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change(MCC)[16]and the CONSTRAIN project.[17]In March 2022, before formal publication of the "Global Carbon Budget 2021"preprint,[15]scientists reported, based on Carbon Monitor[18](CM) data, that afterCOVID-19-pandemic-causedrecord-level declines in 2020, global CO2emissions rebounded sharply by 4.8% in 2021, indicating that at the current trajectory, the carbon budget for a ⅔ likelihood for limiting warming to 1.5 °C would be used up within 9.5 years.[19]

In April 2022, the nowreviewedand officially publishedThe Global Carbon Budget 2021concluded that fossil CO2emissions rebounded[20]frompandemic levelsby around +4.8% relative to 2020 emissions – returning to 2019 levels.

It identifies three major issues for improving reliable accuracy of monitoring, shows that China and India surpassed 2019 levels (by 5.7% and 3.2%) while the EU and the US stayed beneath 2019 levels (by 5.3% and 4.5%), quantifies various changes and trends, for the first time provides models' estimates that are linked to the official countryGHG inventoriesreporting, and suggests that the remaining carbon budget at 1. Jan 2022 for a 50% likelihood tolimit global warmingto 1.5 °C (albeit a temporary exceedence is to be expected) is 120 GtC (420 GtCO2) – or 11 years of 2021 emissions levels.[15]

This does not mean that likely 11 years remain to cut emissions but that if emissions stayed the same, instead of increasing like in 2021, 11 years of constant GHG emissions would be left in the hypothetical scenario that all emissions suddenly ceased in the 12th year. (The 50% likelihood may be describable as a kind of minimum plausible deniability requirement as lower likelihoods would make the 1.5 °C goal "unlikely".) Moreover, other trackers show (or highlight) different amounts of carbon budget left, such as the MCC, which as of May 2022 shows "7 years 1 month left"[16]and different likelihoods have different carbon budgets: a 83% likelihood would mean 6.6 ±0.1 years left (ending in 2028) according to CM data.[19]

In October 2023 a group of researchers updated the carbon budget including the CO2 emitted at 2020-2022 and new findings about the role of reduced presence of polluting particles in the atmosphere.[21]They found we can emit 250 GtCO2or 6 years of emissions at current level starting from January 2023, for having a 50% chance to stay below 1.5 degrees. For reaching this target humanity will need to zero CO2emissions by the year 2034. To have a 50% chance of staying below 2 degrees humanity can emit 1220 GtCO2or 30 years of emissions at current level.[22][23]

Carbon budget in gigatonnes and factors[edit]

Estimating the remaining carbon budget at the global level depends on climate science and value judgments or choices. To translate a global budget to the national level, further value judgments and choices have to be made.[12]

The finding of an almostlinear relationship between global temperature rise and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions[11]has encouraged the estimation of global emissions budgets in order to remain below dangerous levels of warming. Since the pre-industrial period (year 1750) to 2019, approximately 2390Gigatonnesof CO2(Gt CO2) has already been emitted globally.[9]

Scientific estimations of the remaining global emissions budgets/quotas differ due to varied methodological approaches, and considerations of thresholds.[24]Estimations might not include all amplifyingclimate change feedbacks,[25][26][27][28]although the most authoritative carbon budget assessments as summarised by theIPCCdo account explicitly for these.[29][9]Scientists assess the size of remaining carbon budgets using estimates of:

  • past warming caused by human activities,
  • the amount of warming per cumulative unit of CO2emissions (also known as theTransient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions of carbon dioxide,or TCRE),
  • the amount of warming that could still occur once all emissions of CO2are halted (known as the Zero Emissions Commitment[30]), and
  • the impact of Earth system feedbacks that would otherwise not be covered.

The estimates vary according to the global temperature target that is chosen, the probability of staying below that target, and the emission of other non-CO2greenhouse gases(GHGs).[29][7][9][31]This approach was first applied in the 2018Special report on Global Warming of 1.5 °Cby theIPCC,[29]and was also used in its 2021 Working Group I Contribution to theSixth Assessment Report.[9]

Carbon budget estimates depend on the likelihood or probability of avoiding a temperature limit, and the assumed warming that is projected to be caused by non-CO2emissions.[29][7][9]These estimates assume non-CO2emissions are also reduced in line with deepdecarbonisationscenarios that reach globalnet zero CO2emissions.[29][7][9]Carbon budget estimates thus depend on how successful society is in reducing non-CO2emissions together with carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists estimated that remaining carbon budgets can be 220 Gt CO2higher or lower depending on how successful non-CO2emissions are reduced.[9]

Estimated carbon budgets in GtCO2from 2020 with likelihoods[9]: Table 5.8 
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 17% 33% 50% 66% 83%
1.5 °C 900 650 500 400 300
1.7 °C 1450 1050 850 700 550
2.0 °C 2300 1700 1350 1150 900

National emissions budgets[edit]

Carbon budgets are applicable to the global level. To translate these global carbon budgets to the country level, a set of value judgments have to be made on how to distribute the total and remaining carbon budget. In light of the many differences between nations, including but not limited to population, level of industrialisation, national emissions histories, and mitigation capabilities, scientists have made attempts to allocate global carbon budgets among countries using methods that follow various principles of equity.[13]Allocating national emissions budgets is comparable to sharing the effort to reduce global emissions, underlined by some assumptions of state-level responsibility of climate change. Many authors have conducted quantitative analyses which allocate emissions budgets,[5][32][33][34][35]often simultaneously addressing disparities in historical GHG emissions between nations.

One guiding principle that is used to allocate global emissions budgets to nations is the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilitiesand respective capabilities "that is included in theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC).[13]This principle is not defined in further detail in the UNFCCC but is broadly understood to recognize nations' different cumulative historical contributions to global emissions as well as their different development stages. From this perspective, those countries with greater emissions during a set time period (for example, since the pre-industrial era to the present) are the most responsible for addressing excess emissions, as are countries that are richer. Thus, their national emissions budgets have to be smaller than those from countries that have polluted less in the past, or are poorer. The concept of national historical responsibility for climate change has prevailed in the literature since the early 1990s[36][37]and has been part of the key international agreements on climate change (UNFCCC, theKyoto Protocoland theParis Agreement). Consequently, those countries with the highest cumulative historical emissions have the most responsibility to take the strongest actions[38]and help developing countries to mitigate their emissions and adapt to climate change. This principle is recognized in international treaties and has been part of the diplomatic strategies by developing countries, that argue that they need larger emissions budgets[39]to reduce inequity and achievesustainable development.

Another common equity principle for calculating national emissions budgets is the "egalitarian "principle.This principle stipulates individuals should have equal rights, and therefore emissions budgets should be distributed proportionally according to state populations.[13]Some scientists have thus reasoned the use of national per-capita emissions in national emissions budget calculations.[32][33][34][40]This principle may be favoured by nations with larger or rapidly growing populations,[39]but raises the question whether individuals can have a right to pollute.[41]

A third equity principle that has been employed in national budget calculations considers nationalsovereignty.[13]The "sovereignty" principle highlights the equal right of nations to pollute.[13]The grandfathering method for calculating national emissions budgets uses this principle. Grandfathering allocates these budgets proportionally according to emissions at a particular base year,[40]and has been used under international regimes such as the Kyoto Protocol[42]and the early phase of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)[43]This principle is often favoured by developed countries, as it allocates larger emissions budgets to them.[39]However, recent publications highlight that grandfathering is unsupported as an equity principle as it "creates 'cascading biases' against poorer states,[44]is not a 'standard of equity'[45]".[46]Other scholars have highlighted that "to treat states as the owners of emission rights has morally problematic consequences".[41]

Pathways to stay within carbon budget[edit]

The steps that can be taken to stay within one's carbon budget are explained within the concept ofclimate change mitigation.

Climate change mitigation(or decarbonisation) is action to limit thegreenhouse gasesin the atmosphere that causeclimate change.Climate change mitigation actions includeconserving energyandreplacing fossil fuelswithclean energy sources.Secondary mitigation strategies include changes to land use andremoving carbon dioxide (CO2)from the atmosphere. Costs of climate change mitigation are estimated at around 1% and 2% ofGDP.[47][48]Current climate change mitigation policies are insufficient as they would still result in global warming of about 2.7 °C by 2100,[49]significantly above the 2015Paris Agreement's[50]goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C.[51][52]

Solar energyandwind powercan replace fossil fuels at the lowest cost compared to otherrenewable energyoptions.[53]The availability of sunshine and wind is variable and can requireelectrical gridupgrades, such as usinglong-distance electricity transmissionto group a range of power sources.[54]Energy storagecan also be used to even out power output, anddemand managementcan limit power use when power generation is low. Cleanly generatedelectricity can usually replace fossil fuelsfor powering transportation, heating buildings, and running industrial processes.[citation needed]Certain processes are more difficult to decarbonise, such asair travelandcement production.Carbon capture and storage(CCS) can be an option to reduce net emissions in these circumstances, although fossil fuel power plants with CCS technology is currently a high cost climate change mitigation strategy.[55]

Human land use changes such asagricultureand deforestation cause about 1/4th of climate change. These changes impact how much CO2is absorbed by plant matter and how much organic matter decays or burns to release CO2.These changes are part of the fastcarbon cycle,whereas fossil fuels release CO2that was buried underground as part of the slow carbon cycle.Methaneis a short lived greenhouse gas that is produced by decaying organic matter and livestock, as well as fossil fuel extraction. Land use changes can also impact precipitation patterns and thereflectivity of the surface of the Earth.It is possible to cut emissions from agriculture by reducingfood waste,switching to a moreplant-based diet(also referred to aslow-carbon diet), and by improving farming processes.[56]

Various policies can encourage climate change mitigation.Carbon pricingsystems have been set up that eithertax CO2emissionsorcap total emissions and trade emission credits.Fossil fuel subsidiescan be eliminated in favor of cleanenergy subsidies,and incentives offered for installing energy efficiency measures or switching to electric power sources.[57]Another issue is overcoming environmental objections when constructing new clean energy sources and making grid modifications.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^Christiana Figueres;Hans Joachim Schellnhuber;Gail Whiteman;Johan Rockström(2017-06-29)."Three years to safeguard our climate".Nature.Vol. 546, no. 7660. pp. 593–595.doi:10.1038/546593a.ISSN0028-0836.Retrieved2022-05-01.
  2. ^abcIPCC, 2021:Annex VII: Glossary[Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. InClimate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256,doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022
  3. ^Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hare, William; Raper, Sarah C. B.; Frieler, Katja; Knutti, Reto; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R. (April 2009). "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C".Nature.458(7242): 1158–1162.Bibcode:2009Natur.458.1158M.CiteSeerX10.1.1.337.3632.doi:10.1038/nature08017.PMID19407799.S2CID4342402.
  4. ^Matthews, H Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R (1 January 2018)."Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets".Environmental Research Letters.13(1): 010201.Bibcode:2018ERL....13a0201D.doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9.
  5. ^abRaupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Le Quéré, Corinne (21 September 2014)."Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions".Nature Climate Change.4(10): 873–879.Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..873R.doi:10.1038/nclimate2384.hdl:11250/2484054.
  6. ^Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael; Levermann, Anders;Rogelj, Joeri;Nauels, Alexander; Wrathall, David J. (2018)."Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy".Nature Climate Change.8(8): 653–655.Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..653C.doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6.hdl:10044/1/63152.ISSN1758-678X.S2CID91593244.
  7. ^abcdRogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher J.; Séférian, Roland (2019-07-18)."Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets".Nature.571(7765): 335–342.Bibcode:2019Natur.571..335R.doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z.hdl:10044/1/78011.ISSN0028-0836.PMID31316194.S2CID197542084.
  8. ^abMatthews, H. Damon; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Rogelj, Joeri; Canadell, Josep G.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Forster, Piers M.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jackson, Robert B. (2020)."Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy".Nature Geoscience.13(12): 769–779.Bibcode:2020NatGe..13..769M.doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3.hdl:20.500.11850/454127.ISSN1752-0894.S2CID227236155.
  9. ^abcdefghiCanadell, J.G., P.M.S. Monteiro, M.H. Costa, L. Cotrim da Cunha, P.M. Cox, A.V. Eliseev, S. Henson, M. Ishii, S. Jaccard, C. Koven, A. Lohila, P.K. Patra, S. Piao, J. Rogelj, S. Syampungani, S. Zaehle, and K. Zickfeld, 2021:Chapter 5: Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks.InClimate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 673–816, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.007.
  10. ^Zickfeld, K.; Arora, V. K.; Gillett, N. P. (March 2012)."Is the climate response to CO emissions path dependent?".Geophysical Research Letters.39(5): n/a.Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.5703Z.doi:10.1029/2011gl050205.
  11. ^abMatthews, H. Damon; Gillett, Nathan P.; Stott, Peter A.; Zickfeld, Kirsten (June 2009). "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions".Nature.459(7248): 829–832.Bibcode:2009Natur.459..829M.doi:10.1038/nature08047.PMID19516338.S2CID4423773.
  12. ^abNauels, Alex; Rosen, Debbie; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Maycock, Amanda; McKenna, Christine; Roegli, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Smith, Ela; Smith, Chris; Forster, Piers (2019)."ZERO IN ON the remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates. The CONSTRAIN Project Annual Report 2019".University of Leeds.doi:10.5518/100/20.
  13. ^abcdefRingius, L.; Torvanger, A.; Underdal, A. (2002)."Burden sharing and fairness principles in international climate policy"(PDF).International Environmental Agreements.2(1): 1–22.doi:10.1023/a:1015041613785.S2CID73604803.
  14. ^"Global Carbon Budget 2021"(PDF).Global Carbon Project.4 November 2021. p. 57.Archived(PDF)from the original on 11 December 2021.The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1850. The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources & sinks.... Source: Friedlingstein et al 2021; Global Carbon Project 2021
  15. ^abcFriedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael; et al. (26 April 2022)."Global Carbon Budget 2021".Earth System Science Data.14(4): 1917–2005.Bibcode:2022ESSD...14.1917F.doi:10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022.hdl:20.500.11850/545754.ISSN1866-3508.
  16. ^ab"Remaining carbon budget - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)".www.mcc-berlin.net.Retrieved27 April2022.
  17. ^"Publications | Reports Archives".Constrain.Retrieved2023-09-20.
  18. ^"Carbon monitor".carbonmonitor.org.Retrieved19 April2022.
  19. ^abLiu, Zhu; Deng, Zhu; Davis, Steven J.; Giron, Clement; Ciais, Philippe (April 2022)."Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021".Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.3(4): 217–219.Bibcode:2022NRvEE...3..217L.doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00285-w.ISSN2662-138X.PMC8935618.PMID35340723.
  20. ^Jackson, R B; Friedlingstein, P; Le Quéré, C; Abernethy, S; Andrew, R M; Canadell, J G; Ciais, P; Davis, S J; Deng, Zhu; Liu, Zhu; Korsbakken, J I; Peters, G P (1 March 2022). "Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels".Environmental Research Letters.17(3): 031001.arXiv:2111.02222.Bibcode:2022ERL....17c1001J.doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac55b6.S2CID241035429.
  21. ^Lamboll, Robin D.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Smith, Christopher J.; Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Byers, Edward; Rogelj, Joeri (December 2023)."Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets".Nature Climate Change.13(12): 1360–1367.doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5.
  22. ^McGrath, Matt (31 October 2023)."Carbon emissions threaten 1.5C climate threshold sooner than thought - report".Nature Climate Change. BBC.Retrieved1 November2023.
  23. ^BORENSTEIN, SETH (30 October 2023)."Earth Will Lock in 1.5°C of Warming By 2029 At Current Rate of Burning Fossil Fuels".Times.Retrieved1 November2023.
  24. ^Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto (24 February 2016). "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled".Nature Climate Change.6(3): 245–252.Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..245R.doi:10.1038/nclimate2868.hdl:1874/330323.S2CID87929010.
  25. ^Rogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher J.; Séférian, Roland (17 July 2019)."Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets".Nature.571(7765): 335–342.Bibcode:2019Natur.571..335R.doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z.hdl:10044/1/78011.PMID31316194.
  26. ^Jamieson,Naomi Oreskes,Michael Oppenheimer, Dale."Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change".Scientific American Blog Network.Retrieved2019-08-21.{{cite web}}:CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  27. ^Comyn-Platt, Edward (2018)."Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks"(PDF).Nature Geoscience.11(8): 568–573.Bibcode:2018NatGe..11..568C.doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9.S2CID134078252.
  28. ^Lenton, Timothy M.; Rockström, Johan; Gaffney, Owen; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2019-11-27)."Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against".Nature.575(7784): 592–595.Bibcode:2019Natur.575..592L.doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0.hdl:10871/40141.PMID31776487.
  29. ^abcdeRogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jiang, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., Handa, C., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Mundaca, L., Séférian, R., Vilariño, M. V. (2018). "Global Warming of 1.5 °C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty". In Flato, G., Fuglestvedt, J., Mrabet, R., Schaeffer, R. (eds.).Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development.IPCC/WMO. pp. 93–174.
  30. ^MacDougall, Andrew H.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Jones, Chris D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Matthews, H. Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Arora, Vivek K.; Barrett, Noah J.; Brovkin, Victor; Burger, Friedrich A.; Eby, Micheal (2020-06-15)."Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2".Biogeosciences.17(11): 2987–3016.Bibcode:2020BGeo...17.2987M.doi:10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020.hdl:10044/1/79876.ISSN1726-4189.
  31. ^Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R. M.; Rogelj, J.; Peters, G. P.; Canadell, J. G.; Knutti, R.; Luderer, G.; Raupach, M. R.; Schaeffer, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Le Quéré, C. (October 2014). "Persistent growth of CO 2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets".Nature Geoscience.7(10): 709–715.Bibcode:2014NatGe...7..709F.CiteSeerX10.1.1.711.8978.doi:10.1038/ngeo2248.S2CID129068170.
  32. ^abBaer, P.; Athanasiou, T.; Kartha, S.; Kemp-Benedict, E. (2009). "Greenhouse development rights: A proposal for a fair global climate treaty".Ethics Place and Environment.12(3): 267–281.doi:10.1080/13668790903195495.S2CID153611101.
  33. ^abNabel, Julia E.M.S.; Rogelj, Joeri; Chen, Claudine M.; Markmann, Kathleen; Gutzmann, David J.H.; Meinshausen, Malte (2011)."Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module".Environmental Modelling & Software.26(12): 1419–1433.doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.08.004.
  34. ^abMatthews, H. Damon (7 September 2015). "Quantifying historical carbon and climate debts among nations".Nature Climate Change.6(1): 60–64.Bibcode:2016NatCC...6...60M.doi:10.1038/nclimate2774.S2CID87930705.
  35. ^Anderson, Kevin; Broderick, John F.; Stoddard, Isak (2020-05-28)."A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of 'climate progressive' nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways".Climate Policy.20(10): 1290–1304.doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1728209.ISSN1469-3062.
  36. ^Grübler, A.; Fujii, Y. (1991)."Inter-generational and spatial equity issues of carbon accounts"(PDF).Energy.16(11–12): 1397–1416.doi:10.1016/0360-5442(91)90009-b.
  37. ^Smith, K. R. (1992). "Allocating responsibility for global warming: The natural debt index".Ambio. Stockholm.20(2): 95–96.
  38. ^Botzen, W. J. W.; Gowdy, J. M.; Bergh, J. C. J. M. Van Den (1 January 2008). "Cumulative CO2emissions: shifting international responsibilities for climate debt ".Climate Policy.8(6): 569–576.doi:10.3763/cpol.2008.0539.S2CID153972794.
  39. ^abcPan, J (2003). "Emissions rights and their transferability: equity concerns over climate change mitigation".International Environmental Agreements.3(1): 1–16.doi:10.1023/A:1021366620577.S2CID18008551.
  40. ^abNeumayer, Eric (2000)."In defence of historical accountability for greenhouse gas emissions"(PDF).Ecological Economics.33(2): 185–192.doi:10.1016/s0921-8009(00)00135-x.S2CID154625649.
  41. ^abCaney, Simon (2009)."Justice and the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions1".Journal of Global Ethics.5(2): 125–146.doi:10.1080/17449620903110300.ISSN1744-9626.S2CID144368369.
  42. ^UNFCCC (1998). "Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change".(http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf)
  43. ^2010/384/: Commission Decision of 9 July 2010 on the Community-wide quantity of allowances to be issued under the EU Emission Trading Scheme for 2013 (notified under document C(2010) 4658)
  44. ^Kartha, Sivan; Athanasiou, Tom; Caney, Simon; Cripps, Elizabeth; Dooley, Kate; Dubash, Navroz K.; Fei, Teng; Harris, Paul G.; Holz, Christian; Lahn, Bård; Moellendorf, Darrel (2018)."Cascading biases against poorer countries".Nature Climate Change.8(5): 348–349.Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..348K.doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0152-7.hdl:20.500.11820/015eb0b4-9942-41f5-afa9-0f0c2a94deff.ISSN1758-678X.S2CID90164339.
  45. ^Dooley, Kate; Holz, Christian; Kartha, Sivan; Klinsky, Sonja; Roberts, J. Timmons; Shue, Henry; Winkler, Harald; Athanasiou, Tom; Caney, Simon; Cripps, Elizabeth; Dubash, Navroz K. (2021)."Ethical choices behind quantifications of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement".Nature Climate Change.11(4): 300–305.Bibcode:2021NatCC..11..300D.doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01015-8.hdl:11250/2828413.ISSN1758-678X.S2CID232766664.
  46. ^Rajamani, Lavanya; Jeffery, Louise; Höhne, Niklas; Hans, Frederic; Glass, Alyssa; Ganti, Gaurav; Geiges, Andreas (2021-09-14)."National 'fair shares' in reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the principled framework of international environmental law".Climate Policy.21(8): 983–1004.doi:10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504.ISSN1469-3062.S2CID238231789.
  47. ^"Can cost benefit analysis grasp the climate change nettle? And can we..."Oxford Martin School.Retrieved11 November2019.
  48. ^Kotz, Mazimilian.; Levermann, Anders; Wenz, Leonie (2024-04-17)."The economic commitment of climate change".Nature.628:551–557.doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07219-0.PMC11023931.
  49. ^Ritchie, Hannah; Roser, Max; Rosado, Pablo (11 May 2020)."CO2and Greenhouse Gas Emissions ".Our World in Data.Retrieved27 August2022.
  50. ^Rogelj, J.; Shindell, D.; Jiang, K.; Fifta, S.; et al. (2018)."Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5 °C in the Context of Sustainable Development"(PDF).Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty(PDF).
  51. ^Harvey, Fiona (26 November 2019)."UN calls for push to cut greenhouse gas levels to avoid climate chaos".The Guardian.Retrieved27 November2019.
  52. ^"Cut Global Emissions by 7.6 Percent Every Year for Next Decade to Meet 1.5°C Paris Target – UN Report".United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.United Nations.Retrieved27 November2019.
  53. ^IPCC (2022)Summary for policy makersinClimate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, United States
  54. ^Ram M., Bogdanov D., Aghahosseini A., Gulagi A., Oyewo A.S., Child M., Caldera U., Sadovskaia K., Farfan J., Barbosa LSNS., Fasihi M., Khalili S., Dalheimer B., Gruber G., Traber T., De Caluwe F., Fell H.-J., Breyer C.Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination SectorsArchived2021-04-01 at theWayback Machine.Study by Lappeenranta University of Technology and Energy Watch Group, Lappeenranta, Berlin, March 2019.
  55. ^"Cement – Analysis".IEA.Retrieved24 November2022.
  56. ^United Nations Environment Programme (2022).Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window — Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies.Nairobi.
  57. ^"Climate Change Performance Index"(PDF).November 2022.Retrieved16 November2022.

External links[edit]