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Cyclone Percy

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy
Cyclone Percy prior to peak intensity on March 1
Meteorological history
FormedFebruary 24, 2005(2005-02-24)
DissipatedMarch 5, 2005(2005-03-06)
Category 5 severe tropical cyclone
10-minute sustained(FMS)
Highest winds230 km/h (145 mph)
Lowest pressure900hPa(mbar); 26.58inHg
Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone
1-minute sustained(SSHWS/JTWC)
Highest winds260 km/h (160 mph)
Lowest pressure898hPa(mbar); 26.52inHg
Overall effects
Areas affectedAmerican Samoa,Tokelau,Cook Islands
IBTrACSEdit this at Wikidata
Part of the2004–05 South Pacific cyclone season

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percywas an extremely powerfultropical cyclone,which was the third and last Category 5 cyclone to form in the2004–05 South Pacific cyclone season.The seventh named storm and the fourth and final severe tropical cyclone to form during the2004–05 South Pacific cyclone season.Percy originated as a tropical disturbance on February 23. Over next few days, the system organized while moving east southeastward, before intensifying into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian region scale on February 26. The system quickly intensified, reaching Category 4 status later that day. On the next day, Percy was steered southward by a blockingridge of high pressure,while stretched out the structure of the storm into an elliptical shape, weakening it back to Category 3 status. Afterward, the storm rapidly reintensified, reaching its peak intensity as a Category 5 tropical cyclone on March 2. Afterward, Percy encountered increasing wind shear and weakened once again, turning southeastward on the next day. On March 5, Percy transitioned into anextratropical storm,before dissipating soon afterward.

Percy was also the most damaging of the South Pacific February cyclones that year, as it battered theCook Islands,which were still recovering from the impacts of CyclonesMeena,NancyandOlaf.Percy then devastated the island ofTokelau,leaving many homeless and millions in dollars in property damages (although exact damage figures are unavailable). Because of warnings in anticipation of the storm, there were no deaths and there were only a few injuries.

Meteorological history

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Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
Unknown
Storm type
triangleExtratropical cyclone,remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

During February 23, theFiji Meteorological Servicereported that Tropical Disturbance 10F, had developed within the monsoon trough about 700 kilometres (435 mi) to the west of theTuvaluanatollofFunafuti.[1]The system was then located just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis, in a diffluent region.Wind shearand diurnal variations were evidently influencing development.Sea surface temperatures(SST) were around 31 °C.

Later on February 24, shear had decreased markedly. Outflow was favorable and developing in all quadrants. Overnight, the tropical depression underwent explosive development, with the deep convection increasing spatially and in organization while cooling. Spiral bands were also wrapping tightly around the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Since the depression was located in an area of lowwind shearand warm water temperatures, the storm was able to quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm Percy, by 1800 UTC on February 24. At this point in time, Percy was located 120 miles (190 km) east ofFongafale, Tuvalu,and was moving towards the east-southeast at 14 knots (16 mph; 26 km/h).

On February 26, Percy reachedCategory 1status, while located 400 miles (640 km) north ofAmerican Samoa.While Percy moved east-southeast, a shortwave trough developed southwest of the storm. The trough caused the cyclone to intensify even further to a Category 3 storm, as it passed betweenFakaofaandSwains Island.Percy then reached its initial peak at Category 4 status north ofPago Pago,as its winds reached over 135 miles per hour (117 kn; 217 km/h) and thebarometric pressureat its center fell to 925 millibars. On February 27, Cyclone Percy encountered aridge of high pressure,which slowed its forward speed. Because of this, the cyclone's structure became elliptical, which caused the cyclone to weaken back to Category 3 status.[2]By February 28, Percy bypassed the Pukapuka and Nassau Islands as a Category 3 tropical cyclone, as it continued to move south-southeastward.

By then, the cyclone was re-organizing as the storm was steered to the southeast. On March 2, Percy reached its peak intensity, with sustained winds reached 160 mph (140 knots (260 km/h)) on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale,and an estimated barometric pressure of 900 millibars. Cyclone Percy maintained Category 5 status for 18 hours, while located 110 mi (180 km) west ofPalmerston Island.After reaching Category 5 status, Percy began to weaken, due to increasingwind shear.During its weakening phase, Cyclone Percy passed south of Tropical Depression 20S. Pulled by an upper-level trough, Percy swung to the east, passing Tropical Depression 24S in the process, before being caught up by another trough. By March 4, the center of Percy became detached from the main area of convection and Percy quickly weakened to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Percy then quickly accelerated to 20 kt (23 mph (37 km/h)) as it became anextratropical storm.[2]Percy briefly entered the New Zealand area of responsibility before becomingextratropicalat 1200 UTC. By March 5, the remnants of Percy finally dissipated 700 miles (1,100 km) southwest ofRarotonga.[3]

Preparations

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When Percy quickly reachedtropical cyclonestrength, forecasters began to issue watches and warnings for theAmerican SamoaandTokelauareas, which were impacted by earlier storms Nancy and Olaf.[4]As Percy continued to move eastward, forecasters predicted the storm to strengthen into a Category 2 or Category 3 storm within 12–24 hours. meanwhile, forecasters issued gale warnings forTokelau.[5]On 26 February, forecasters predicted Percy would stay on its current track and miss the island ofAtafuby 50–70 miles (80–113 km), even though the storm could bring damaging gale-force winds and heavy rains to the island. However, forecasters predicted Percy would make landfall onTokelau.InAmerican Samoa,hurricane warnings were issued forSwains Island,while the rest of American Samoa remained under a hurricane watch.[6]Later, the gale warnings forTokelauwere changed to hurricane warnings as Percy moved to within 75 miles (121 km) north ofAtafu.InNukunouandFakaofo,forecasters predicted that the cyclone would bring 60–70 mph (97–113 km/h) winds, heavy rains and possible flooding in low-lying areas.[7]

Forecasters predicted that Cyclone Percy was going to turn to the southeast and hit the islands ofPukapukaandNassauin theNorthern Cook Islandsdirectly. Because of this, evacuations were ordered and emergency shelters were activated inRarotonga.Forecasters also predicted that Percy was going to cause a strongstorm surge.TheJoint Typhoon Warning CenterandNOAAalso predicted that the storm was going to strengthen further within 12–24 hours. In addition, forecast models predicted that Cyclone Percy would take a similar track likeCyclone Olafweeks earlier. That prompted officials in theSouthern Cook Islandsto order evacuations.[8]

Effects

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy impacted Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa as well as the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, where it caused widespread damage. Like the earlier cyclones Meena, Nancy, and Olaf, Percy left widespread damage acrossSwains Island,Tokelau,and the northernCook Islands.However, because of well-executed warnings, there were no deaths and there were only a few injuries. Percy was the worst cyclone to strikeTokelausince a similar cyclone hit the area in 1966.[9]

Tokelau

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Cyclone Percy hittingSwains Islandon February 27, 2005

Percy impacted Tokelau between February 25–27, where it caused widespread damage within the threeatollsofNukunonu,FakaofoandAtafu.Ahead of the system impacting the New Zealand dependency, a gale warning was issued for the whole of Tokelau by the FMS, before this was upgraded to a storm warning later that day for the atolls ofNukunonoandFakaofo.[10][11]However, these warnings were not received on the islands and the first notification of the impending cyclone came in a telephone call from New Zealand.[12]

A hurricane warning was also issued for the disputed territory ofSwains Islandduring that day by theUnited States Weather Service OfficeinPago Pago,American Samoa.[13]

American Samoa and Tokelau

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The strong winds from Percy knocked out power and communications infrastructure inSwains Island.Efforts to re-establish contact with the island were unsuccessful for a week. After the storm, however, all eight people who rode out the storm survived, though nine of the eleven buildings on the islands were destroyed or severely damaged.[3]Damage inAmerican Samoawas minimal.[14]InTokelau,Percy damaged trees and knocked down powerlines.[3]During the height of the storm, one person was injured by flying debris, and two others were swept out to sea, but all three survived. InNokonunu,the cyclone destroyed the only school and damaged 80% of the structures. The local hospital completely lost power during the storm and its emergency generator was overwhelmed by the flooding.[15][16]

InFakaofo,thestorm surgefrom Percy damaged asea walland caused majorbeach erosion.One house was destroyed while others were severely damaged. Percy also damaged much of thecoconutharvest and 50% of the livestock were killed by the cyclone.Atafualso suffered similar damage as the storm damaged aUHFtower and several storage sheds. Damage to crops was also significant as the storm damaged much of thebananaandpandanusharvests. The schools inAtafusuffered only minimal damage (mostly wind damage).[16]

Cook Islands

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TheNorthern Cook Islandswere hardest hit by Percy as the storm left 640 people homeless, of which 600 were inPukapuka,and 40 were inNassau.Of the buildings and houses destroyed or severely damaged, only ten were left standing.[3]One person was rescued when his fishing boat stalled during the storm.[17]Percy also damaged a solar power station, making it inoperable.[18]Percy also battered the southernCook Islandswhile weakening, although the damage there was minimal.[19]

Aftermath

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A building inTokelaudamaged by Cyclone Percy

Relief efforts followed after Cyclone Percy. InSwains Island,a rescue plane dropped food and supplies.[3]InTokelauand northernCook Islands,the governments of Australia and New Zealand offered over $200,000 (2005USD) in relief aid.[20]

InTokelau,many of the local officials feared about contamination since the cyclone had scattered human waste, trash, and other debris in the ocean and across the island. There was also an increase ofmosquitoesand other insects, increasing the threat of adengue feveroutbreak. In addition, the storm damaged many of the hospitals, making treatment of the injured or displaced difficult.[21]Criticism of government preparedness followed after Percy as emergency plans were not easily understood by the local population. InNukunonu,the school, which was destroyed by Percy, was poorly built and vulnerable, and there was no early warning system. Also, many of the population had little time to prepare for the storm because of a social event held hours earlier.[16]

See also

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References

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  1. ^RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre.Tropical Cyclone Summary 2004 – 2005 Season(PDF)(Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived fromthe original(PDF)on February 25, 2009.RetrievedNovember 22,2012.
  2. ^abPercy reportRetrieved:June 12, 2006
  3. ^abcdeMonthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary February 2005
  4. ^AP Warning 1Archived2006-02-11 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  5. ^AP Warning 2Archived2006-02-11 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  6. ^AP Warning 3Archived2006-02-11 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  7. ^AP Warning 4Archived2006-02-11 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  8. ^AP Warning 5Archived2006-02-06 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  9. ^Evaluations and Lessons Learned: Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy – March 2005, Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy – OCHA Situation Report No. 5, Situation Reports: Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy – 20 March
  10. ^Special Weather Bulletin Number Two for the Tokelau Islands(Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. February 25, 2005.
  11. ^Special Weather Bulletin Number Five for the Tokelau Islands(Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. February 25, 2005.
  12. ^"Archived copy"(PDF).www.undp.org.ws.Archived fromthe original(PDF)on 4 November 2005.Retrieved12 January2022.{{cite web}}:CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. ^Tropical Cyclone Percy... Local Statement 01(Report). United States Weather Service Office Pago Pago. February 25, 2005.
  14. ^AP WarningArchived2006-02-06 at theWayback MachineRetrieved 12 June 2006
  15. ^"ABC (Australia) News Online: Percy devastates Tokelau".Australian Broadcasting Corporation.Archived fromthe originalon 2005-12-03.Retrieved2006-05-09.
  16. ^abcUNDP damage assessmentArchived2006-05-23 at theWayback MachineRetrieved 12 June 2006
  17. ^Planet Ark.com: State of Emergency declared after Cyclone Percy[usurped]Retrieved:12 June 2006
  18. ^www.ser.orgArchived2006-09-27 at theWayback Machine
  19. ^"Cooks police say no damage reports as cyclone passes south west of Rarotonga".RNZ. 4 March 2005.Retrieved7 August2020.
  20. ^Australian GovernmentOverseas AidArchived2006-05-26 at theWayback MachineRetrieved:12 June 2006
  21. ^Relief WebRetrieved:12 June 2006
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