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Second Cold War

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Cold War 2" and "New Cold War" redirect here. For other uses, seeCold War II (disambiguation)andThe New Cold War.

ASecond Cold War,[1][2]Cold War II,[3][4]or theNew Cold War[5][6][7]has been used to describe heightened geopolitical tensions in the 21st century between usually, on one side, theUnited Statesand, on the other, eitherChinaorRussia—thesuccessor stateof theSoviet Union,which led theEastern Blocduring the originalCold War.

The terms are sometimes used to describe tensions in multilateral relations. Some commentators have used them as a comparison to the original Cold War, while others have discouraged their use to refer to any ongoing tensions.

Past usages

[edit]
Main articles:Cold War § New Cold War (1979–1985),andCold War (1979–1985)

Two of the earliest uses of the phrase “new Cold War” were in 1955 by Secretary of StateJohn Foster Dullesand in 1956 whenThe New York Timeswarned that Soviet propaganda was promoting a return of the Cold War.[8]Other past sources,[9][10][11]such as academicsFred Halliday,[12][13]Alan M. Wald,[14]David S. Painter,[15]andNoam Chomsky,[16]used the interchangeable terms to refer to the1979–1985and/or1985–1991phases of the Cold War. Some other sources[17][18]used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. ColumnistWilliam Safireargued in a 1975New York Timeseditorial that theNixon administration's policy ofdétentewith the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was then underway.[19]

In May 1998,George Kennandescribed theUS Senatevote toexpand NATOto includePoland,Hungary,and theCzech Republicas "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies".[20]

In 2001, foreign policy and security expertsJames M. LindsayandIvo Daalderdescribedcounterterrorismas the "new Cold War".[21]

AcademicGordon H. Changin 2007 used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period afterthe 1972 meeting in Chinabetween US PresidentRichard NixonandChinese Communist PartychairmanMao Zedong.[22]

British journalistEdward Lucaswrote in February 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.[23]

Usage in a multilateral context

[edit]

In a 2016 op-ed forThe Straits Times,Kor Kian Beng wrote that the phrase "new Cold War" between US-led allies versus Beijing and Moscow did not gain traction in China at first. This changed in 2016 after the United States announced its plan to deployTerminal High Altitude Area Defence(THAAD) in South Korea against North Korea, but China and Russia found the advanced anti-missile system too close for comfort. The US also supported atribunal rulingagainst China in favor of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Afterwards, the term "new Cold War" appeared in Chinese media more often. Analysts believe this does not reflect China's desire to pursue such a strategy but precautions should still be in place to lower the chances of any escalation.[24][25]

In June 2019,University of Southern California(USC) professorsSteven LamyandRobert D. Englishagreed that the "new Cold War" would distract political parties from bigger issues such asglobalization,global warming,global poverty, increasinginequality,and far-rightpopulism.However, Lamy said that the new Cold War had not yet begun, while English said that it already had. English further said that China poses a far greater threat than Russia incyberwarfarebut not as much as far-right populism does from within liberal states like the US.[26]

In his September 2021 speech to theUnited Nations General Assembly,US PresidentJoe Bidensaid that the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs." Biden further said that the US would cooperate "with any nation that steps up and pursues peaceful resolution to shared challenges," despite "intense disagreement in other areas, because we'll all suffer the consequences of our failure."[27][28]

In early May 2022,Hoover Institutionsenior fellowNiall Fergusonsaid at theMilken InstituteGlobal Conference that "Cold War II began some time ago".[29]He also said "Cold War II is different, though, because in Cold War II, China's the senior partner, and Russia's the junior partner",[29]and "in Cold War II, the first hot war breaks out in Europe, rather than Asia."[29]Later in the same month,David Panuelo,President of the Federated States of Micronesia,used the term to state his opposition to a proposed cooperation agreement between China and ten island nations, by claiming it could create a "new 'cold war' between China and the west."[30]

In June 2022, journalistMichael Hirshused the term "[global] Cold War" to refer to tensions between leaders ofNATO(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and China and its ally Russia, both countries striving to challenge the US's role as a superpower. Hirsh further cited growing tensions between the US and China as one of the causes of the newer Cold War alongside NATO's speech about China's "systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security". He further cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as one of factors of the newer Cold War's rise.[31]

In July 2022,James Traubused the term while discussing how the ideas of theNon-Aligned Movement,a forum of neutral countries organized during the original Cold War, can be used to understand the reaction of democratic countries in the developing world to current tensions.[32]In the same month France, the United States and Russia scheduled high-level, multi-country diplomatic visits in Africa.[33]An article reporting on these trips used the term "new Cold War" in relation to what "some say is the most intense competition for influence [in Africa] since the [original] Cold War".[33]

An article published in the July 2022 issue of the journalIntereconomicslinked the possible "beginning of a new cold war between the West and the East" with "the rebirth of a new era of conflict, the end of the late 20th century unipolar international security architecture under the hegemony of the United States, [and] the end of globalisation".[34]

In August 2022, an analysis article in the Israeli newspaperHaaretzused the term to refer to the US's "open confrontation with Russia and China". The article continues on to discuss the impact of the current situation on Israel, concluding that "in the new Cold War, [Israel] cannot allow itself to be neutral."[35]In the same month,Katrina vanden Heuvelused the term while cautioning against what she perceived as a "reflexive bipartisan embrace of a new Cold War" against Russia and China among US politicians.[36]

In September 2022, a Greek civil engineer and politicianAnna Diamantopouloufurther stated, despite unity of NATO members, "the West has lost much of its normative power," citing her "meetings with politicians from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East." She further stated that the West will risk losing "a new cold war" unless it overcomes challenges that would give Russia and China a greater world advantage. She further gave suggestions to the Western powers, including the European Union.[37]

In September 2023, North Korean leaderKim Jong Uncalled for an accelerated increase in the production of domestic nuclear weapons in response to the world entering a "new Cold War" between the United States and a "coalition of nations" including China, Russia, and North Korea.[38]

In December 2023,Gita Gopinath,first deputy managing director of theInternational Monetary Fund(IMF), warned that the deepening "fragmentation" between the two power blocs—one by the United States and European allies; another by China and Russia—would lead to "cold war two", impacting "gains fromopen trade"and risking potentially loss of up toUS$7 trillion.[39][40][41][42]

InThe DiplomatJune 2024 article,University of Bonn(Germany) professor Maximilian Mayer andJagiellonian University(Poland) professorEmilian Kavalskiopined that the China–Russia relations have been stronger than before and that Xi's China will "fully back Putin’s effort to threaten and undermine [Western] liberal democratic states", threatening European security and dashing any hopes that the relations between the two countries would become further strained. Mayer and Kavalski further criticised Europe for lacking "historical templates" and its "tripartite approach to China—as [its] partner, competitor, and rival—" as "woefully outdated because it [the approach] lacks a security angle altogether." Both the professors further advised Europe to address China's strong ties with and strong support for Russia's further aggressive plans toward Europe.[43]

Usage in the context of China–United States tensions

[edit]
See also:Chinese espionage in the United States,American espionage in China,China–United States trade war,China–United States relations,andGroup of Two

The US senior defence officialJed Babbin,[44]Yale University professorDavid Gelernter,[45]FirstposteditorR. Jagannathan,[46]Subhash Kapila of theSouth Asia Analysis Group,[47]former Australian Prime MinisterKevin Rudd,[48]and some other sources[49][50][51]have used the term (occasionally using the term "Pacific Cold War")[44]to refer to tensions between theUnited States and Chinain the 2000s and 2010s.

Trump presidency (2017–2021)

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Main article:Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration § China, Taiwan, and the South China Sea

Donald Trump,who was inaugurated as US president on 20 January 2017, had repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he considered China a threat, a stance that heightened speculations of the possibility of a "new cold war with China".[52][53][54]Claremont McKenna CollegeprofessorMinxin Peisaid that Trump'selection winand "ascent to the presidency" may increase chances of the possibility.[55]In March 2017, a self-declared socialist magazineMonthly Reviewsaid, "With the rise of the Trump administration, the new Cold War with Russia has been put on hold", and also said that the Trump administration has planned to shift from Russia to China as its main competitor.[56]

External videos
video icon"Vice President Mike Pence's Remarks on the Administration's Policy Towards China"

In July 2018, Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the CIA's East Asia mission center, told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that he believed China underparamount leaderandgeneral secretaryXi Jinping,while unwilling to go to war, was waging a "quiet kind of cold war" against the United States, seeking to replace the US as the leading global power. He further elaborated: "What they're waging against us is fundamentally a cold war — a cold war not like we saw during [the] Cold War (between the U.S. and the Soviet Union) but a cold war by definition".[57]In October 2018, Hong Kong'sLingnan Universityprofessor Zhang Baohui toldThe New York Timesthat a speech by United States Vice-presidentMike Penceat theHudson Institute"will look like the declaration of a new Cold War".[58]

In January 2019,Robert D. Kaplanof theCenter for a New American Securitywrote that "it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse".[59]

In February 2019, Joshua Shifrinson, an associate professor fromBoston University,said concerns over a new cold war was "overblown", saying US-China relations were different from that of US–Soviet Union relations during the original Cold War, and that ideology would play a less prominent role in their bilateral relationship.[60]

In June 2019, academic Stephen Wertheim called President Trump a "xenophobe" and criticised Trump's foreign policy toward China for heightening risks of a new Cold War, which Wertheim wrote "could plunge the United States back into gruesome proxy wars around the world and risk a still deadlier war among the great powers."[61][62]

In August 2019, Yuan Peng of theChina Institute of International Studiessaid that thefinancial crisis of 2007–2008"initiated a shift in the global order." Yuan predicted the possibility of the new cold war between both countries and their global power competition turning "from 'superpower vs. major power' to 'No. 1 vs. No. 2'." On the other hand, scholar Zhu Feng said that their "strategic competition" would not lead to the new Cold War. Zhu said that the US–China relations have progressed positively and remained "stable", despitedisputes in the South China SeaandTaiwan Straitand US President Trump's aggressive approaches toward China.[63]

In January 2020, columnist and historianNiall Fergusonopined that China is one of the major players of this Cold War, whose powers are "economic rather than military", and that Russia's role is "quite small".[64]Ferguson wrote: "[C]ompared with the 1950s, the roles have been reversed. China is now the giant, Russia the mean little sidekick. China under Xi remains strikingly faithful to the doctrine of Marx and Lenin. Russia under Putin has reverted toTsarism."[64]Ferguson wrote that this Cold War is different from the original Cold War because the US "is so intertwined with China" at the point where "decoupling" is as others argued "a delusion" and because "America's traditional allies are much less eager to align themselves with Washington and against Beijing." He further wrote that the new Cold War "shifted away from trade to technology" when both the US and Chinasigned their Phase One trade deal.[64]

In a February 2020 interview withThe Japan Times,Ferguson suggested that, to "contain China", the US "work intelligently with its Asian and European allies", as the US had done in the original Cold War, rather than on its own and perform something more effective than "tariffs, which are a veryblunt instrument."He also said that the US under Trump has been" rather poor "at makingforeign relations.[65]

On 24 May 2020, China Foreign MinisterWang Yisaid that relations with the US were on the "brink of a new Cold War" after it was fueled by tensions over theCOVID-19 pandemic.[66]

In June 2020, Boston College political scientistRobert S. Rosswrote that the US and China "are destined to compete [but] not destined for violent conflict or a cold war."[67]In July, Ross said that the Trump "administration would like to fully decouple from China. No trade, no cultural exchanges, no political exchanges, no cooperation on anything that resembles common interests."[68]

In August 2020, aLa Trobe Universityprofessor Nick Bisley wrote that the US–China rivalry "will be no Cold War" but rather will "be more complex, harder to manage, and last much longer." He further wrote that comparing the old Cold War to the ongoing rivalry "is a risky endeavour."[69]

In September 2020, the UN Secretary GeneralAntónio Guterreswarned that the increasing tensions between the US under Trump and China under Xi were leading to "a Great Fracture" which would become costly to the world. Xi Jinping replied by saying that "China has no intention to fight either a Cold War or a hot one with any country."[70]

Biden presidency (2021–present)

[edit]
Main article:Foreign policy of the Joe Biden administration § China, Taiwan, and the South China Sea

In March 2021,Columbia UniversityprofessorThomas J. Christensenwrote that the cold war between the US and China "is unlikely" in comparison to the original Cold War, citing China's prominence in the "global production chain"and absence of the authoritarianism vs.liberal democracydynamic. Christensen further advised those concerned about the tensions between the two nations to research China's role in the global economy and its "foreign policy toward international conflicts and civil wars" between liberal and authoritarian forces.[71]

In September 2021, former Portuguese defence and foreign ministerPaulo Portasdescribed the announcement of theAUKUSsecurity pact and the ensuing unprecedented diplomatic crisis between the signatories (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and France (which has several territories in the Indo-Pacific) as a possible formal starting point of a new Cold War.[72]

On 7 November 2021, President Joe Biden's national security adviserJake Sullivanstated that the US does not pursuesystem changein China anymore,[73]marking a clear break from theChina policypursued by previous US administrations. Sullivan said that the US is not seeking a new Cold War with China, but is looking for a system of peaceful coexistence.[74]

In November 2021,Hal Brandsand Yale professorJohn Lewis Gaddiswrote inForeign Affairsthat while it was no longer debatable that the United States and China has been entering into their "own new cold war," it was not clear that the world has also been following suit and entering into a new cold war.[75]

According to a poll done byMorning Consult,only 15 percent of US respondents and 16 percent of Chinese respondents think the countries are in a cold war, with most rather categorizing it as a competition.[76]

In August 2022, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement condemningUS House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.This statement demanded, among other things, that the US "not seek a 'new Cold War'".[77]

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping smiling and shaking hands
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Bali, 2022

Following a November 2022 meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping at theG20summit inBali,Biden told reporters that "there need not be a new Cold War".[78][79]

In a December 2022 editorial published just before being electedUS House speaker,Kevin McCarthywrote that "China and the US are locked in a cold war." Theop-edalso announced the creation of theHouse Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party.[80]

In early 2023,Jorge Heine,former Chilean ambassador to China and professor of international relations atBoston University,said the looming new Cold War between the US and China has become apparent to "a growing consensus", and described the new Cold War as "more alike than [it is] different" from the one fought between the US and Soviet Union, and saying the presence of "ideological-military overtones is now widely accepted."[81]

Usage in the context of Russia–United States tensions

[edit]
See also:Russia–United States relations,Russia–NATO relations,Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,Cyberwarfare by Russia,andCyberwarfare in the United States

Some have used the term to describe the worsening relations between Russia on one side and theWestorNATOor, more specifically, the United States on the other since Russia's 2014annexation of Crimeaandintervention in Eastern Ukraine,[82][83][84][85][86]which started theRusso-Ukrainian conflict.Others argue that the term is not appropriate.

Debate over the term

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Sources disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future,[87][88][89][90][91]while others have used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalries that intensified dramatically in 2014 between Russia, the United States and their respective allies.[85]

Stephen F. Cohen,[92]Robert D. Crane,[93]andAlex Vatanka[94]have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War".

Sources opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences,[95]and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as inBelarusand Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states likeUkraineand theCaucasusregion.[96]

In June 2014, theMinistry of Defense of North Macedoniapublished an article asserting that the term "Cold War II" was as a misnomer.[97]

In February 2016, at theMunich Security Conference,NATO Secretary GeneralJens Stoltenbergsaid that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War",[98]while Russian Prime MinisterDmitry Medvedev,speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War".[99]In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.[100][101]

In February 2016, aHigher School of Economicsuniversity academic andHarvard Universityvisiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote onE-International Relationsthat "the world is not entering Cold War II", asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of both sides are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that situations in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilise other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was".[102]

In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister,Sergey Lavrov,argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longerideologically bipolar.[103]

In August 2016, Daniel Larison ofThe American Conservativemagazine wrote that tensions between Russia and the United States would not "constitute a 'new Cold War'" especially between democracy and authoritarianism, which Larison found more limited than and not as significant in 2010s as that of the Soviet-Union era.[104]Andrew Kuchins,an American political scientist andKremlinologistspeaking in December 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War.[105]

In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign MinisterSergei Ryabkovdenied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries and newer US sanctions against Russia.[106]AUniversity of East Angliagraduate student Oliver Steward[107]and theCasimir Pulaski Foundationsenior fellow Stanisław Koziej[108]in 2017 attributedZapad 2017 exercise,a military exercise by Russia, as part of the new Cold War.

In March 2018, Russian PresidentVladimir Putintold journalistMegyn Kellyin an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda."[109]Michael Kofman,a seniorResearch Scientistat theCNA Corporationand afellowat theWilson Center'sKennan Institutesaid that the new cold war for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, aresearch professorat theUS Naval War Collegeclaims that the situations inGeorgiaandUkraine"seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War".[110]Also in March 2018, Harvard University professorsStephen Walt[111]and thenOdd Arne Westad[112]criticized the application of the term to increasing tensions between Russia and the West as "misleading",[111]"distract[ing]",[111]and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics.

In October 2018, Russian military analystPavel FelgenhauertoldDeutsche Wellethat the new Cold War would make theIntermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treatyand other Cold War-era treaties "irrelevant because they correspond to a totally different world situation."[113]In February 2019, Russian Foreign MinisterSergey Lavrovstated that the withdrawal from the INF treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War".[114][115][116][117]

Russian news agencyTASSreported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads (the first of which entered production in January 2019)[118]had increased the potential for the use ofnuclear weapons.[114]

In July 2024, after the United States announced its intention to deploylong-range missilesinGermanyfrom 2026,[119]Kremlin spokespersonDmitry Peskovtold a reporter of a Russian state-run television network, "We are taking steady steps towards the Cold War," and then said, "All the attributes of the Cold War with the direct confrontation are returning."[120]

Middle East conflicts

[edit]
See also:Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflictandIran–Israel proxy conflict

In 2013,Michael Klarecompared inRealClearPoliticstensions between Russia and the West to the ongoingproxy conflictbetweenSaudi ArabiaandIran.[121]Oxford ProfessorPhilip N. Howardargued that a new cold war was being fought via the media,information warfare,andcyberwar.[6]

Some observers, including Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assad,[122]judged theSyrian civil warto be aproxy warbetweenRussiaand theUnited States,[123][124]and even a "proto-world war".[125]In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues".[126]

In April 2018, relations deteriorated over a potential US-led military strike in Middle East after theDouma chemical attackin Syria, which was attributed to theSyrian Armyby rebel forces inDouma,andpoisoning of the Skripalsin the UK. TheSecretary-General of the United Nations,António Guterres,told a meeting of theUN Security Councilthat "the Cold War was back with a vengeance". He suggested the dangers were even greater, as the safeguards that existed to manage such a crisis "no longer seem to be present".[127]Dmitri Treninsupported Guterres' statement, but added that it began in 2014 and had been intensifying since, resulting inUS-led strikes on the Syrian governmenton 13 April 2018.[128]

In February 2022, journalistMarwan Bisharaheld the US and Russia responsible for pursuing "their own narrow interests", including then-US President Trump'srecognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israelas well as Putin'sRussian invasion of Ukraine,and for "pav[ing] the way for, well, another Cold War".[129]

Russo-Ukrainian War

[edit]
See also:Russo-Ukrainian War

Some political analysts argue that Russia's 2014annexation of Crimea,which started theRusso-Ukrainian conflict,marked the beginning of a new Cold War between Russia and the West or NATO.[83][84][85][86][130]By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposedpunitive measureson Russia, which introducedretaliatory measures.[131][132]

In 2014, notable figures such asMikhail Gorbachevwarned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Russo-Ukrainian War,[133][134][135]that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring.[136][137]The American political scientistRobert Legvoldalso believes it started in 2013 during the Ukraine crisis.[138][139]Others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West.[140][141]

In October 2016,John Sawers,a formerMI6chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington".[142]Similarly,Igor Zevelev,a fellow at theWilson Center,said that "it's not a Cold War [but] a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation".[143]CNNopined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict".[143]

In January 2017, former US government adviser Molly K. McKew said atPoliticothat the US would win a new cold war.[144]The New Republiceditor Jeet Heer dismissed the possibility as "equally troubling[,] reckless threat inflation, wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power in support of a costly policy", and too centred on Russia while "ignoring the rise of powers like China and India". Heer also criticised McKew for suggesting the possibility.[145]Jeremy Shapiro,a senior fellow in theBrookings Institution,wrote in his blog post atRealClearPolitics,referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result".[146]

Speaking to the press inBerlinon 8 November 2019, a day before the 30th anniversary of thefall of the Berlin Wall,US Secretary of StateMike Pompeowarned of the dangers posed by Russia and China and specifically accused Russia, "led by a formerKGBofficer once stationed inDresden",of invading its neighbours and crushing dissent. Jonathan Marcus of theBBCopined that Pompeo's words "appeared to be declaring the outbreak of a second [Cold War]".[147]

On 24 February 2022 Russia launched afull-scale invasion of Ukraineand have forcibly occupied many territories within the nation since.[148][149][150]Soon after, journalistH. D. S. Greenwaycited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and 4 February joint statement betweenRussia and China(under Putin andXi Jinping) as one of the signs that Cold War II had officially begun.[151]

In March 2022, Yale historian Arne Westad and Harvard historianFredrik Logevallin avideotelephonyconversation asserted "that the global showdown over Ukraine" would "not signal a second Cold War". Furthermore, Westad said thatPutin's words about Ukraineresembled, which Harvard journalist James F. Smith summarized, "some of the colonial racial arguments of imperial powers of the past, ideas from the late 19th and early 20th century rather than the Cold War".[152]

In June 2022, journalistGideon Rachmanasserted the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the start of a second Cold War.[153]

HistorianAntony Beevorstated in October 2022 that he believes the world to be in a Second Cold War, and that "it is no longer [about] the old divide betweenleft and right"but rather" a change in the direction ofautocracyversus democracy ", a change made apparent by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; in his opinion, this cold war is" much scarier "than the first, as" one of the most worrying aspects "of the new cold war is a total disregard fordiplomatic agreements.[154]

See also

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References

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