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Bellwether

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the concept of a trend indicator. For other uses, seeBellwether (disambiguation).

Abellwetheris aleaderor an indicator of trends.[1]

Inpolitics,the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match inmicrocosmthose of a wider area, such that the result of anelectionin the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Ineconomics,a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of aneconomic trend.[1][2]

Sociologistsapply the term in theactive senseto a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or settrends.

Etymology[edit]

A bellwether sheep, with a bell around its neck

The term derives from theMiddle Englishbelle-weder,which referred to the practice of placing abellaround the neck of the leadwether(the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight.[3]

The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century.[3]

In economics[edit]

In the world ofeconomicsandfinance,a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of aneconomic trend.[1][2]

In thestock market,a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides.JPMorgan Chaseis a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.Tata Consultancy Servicesis similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets,BSEandNSE.[2]

Similarly, abellwether bondis "agovernment bondwhose changes ininterest rateare believed to show the future direction of the rest of thebond market."[4]

The quarterlyBellwether Report,published by theInstitute of Practitioners in Advertising(IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.

In law[edit]

Main article:Bellwether trial

In politics[edit]

Map highlighting in red five bellwethers who since 1965 every election have swung to the President in the second (final) round of the Présidentielles. All these are within Metropolitan France, on the mainland of Europe.Loire,in the south-east is the most populous, close to Lyon.

Inpolitics,the termbellwetheroften applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match inmicrocosmthose of a wider area, such that the result of anelectionin the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In aWestminster-style election, for example, aconstituency,the control of which tends frequently to change, can have apopular votethat mirrors the result on a national scale.

Anelectoral bellwethercan be award,precinct,town,county,or otherdistrictthat accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change everyelection cycledue to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: amidtermbellwether differs from apresidentialbellwether or aparty primarybellwether.[5][6]

American statistician and political scientistEdward Tufteand his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:[6]

Australia[edit]

InAustralianfederal elections, theDivision of RobertsoninNew South Walesbecame the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the1983 federal election.

Previously, the electoraldivision of Eden-Monaroelected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from1972until2016,when the record was broken afterLaborwon the seat, while theCoalitionwon government. TheDivision of Lindsayin NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the2016 federal election,both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.

TheDivision of Makinin South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote,Eden-Monaro,Lindsay,RobertsonandMakinhave bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the1998 federal election.In purely statistical terms, the state ofNew South Wales,which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the2016 federal electionthe party which wins government has won the majority ofHouse of Representativesseats in that state at every election since1963.Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

List of electorates described as bellwethers[edit]

Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is thetwo-party-preferred vote.

Electorate State/territory Winning party
Government elected
1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Lib/Nat Coalition Labor Lib/Nat Coalition Labor
53.63% 50.98% 51.03% 52.79% 52.70% 50.12% 53.49% 50.36% 51.53% 52.13%
Seat winner
1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Bass TAS Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal
54.57% 50.06% 52.06% 52.63% 51.00% 56.74% 54.04% 56.09% 50.41% 51.43%
Braddon TAS Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal
55.70% 54.33% 55.96% 51.13% 51.44% 57.48% 52.56% 52.20% 53.09% 58.03%
Chisholm VIC Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
52.59% 52.07% 52.77% 52.65% 57.38% 56.11% 51.60% 51.24% 50.57% 56.41%
Corangamite VIC Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
57.69% 54.50% 55.67% 55.32% 50.85% 50.41% 53.94% 53.13% 51.07% 57.60%
Dobell NSW Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
50.08% 53.35% 50.38% 55.90% 53.90% 55.07% 50.68% 54.81% 51.50% 56.52%
Eden-Monaro NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
54.76% 50.18% 51.69% 52.14% 53.40% 54.24% 50.61% 52.93% 50.85% 58.20%
Forde QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National
59.70% 55.25% 57.38% 62.98% 52.91% 51.63% 54.38% 50.63% 58.60% 54.23%
Hasluck WA Did not exist Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
51.78% 51.82% 51.26% 50.57% 54.87% 52.05% 55.21% 56.00%
Leichhardt QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National
54.18% 54.05% 56.39% 60.00% 54.01% 54.55% 55.68% 53.95% 54.17% 53.44%
Lindsay NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal
51.58% 51.28% 55.47% 55.26% 56.78% 51.12% 52.99% 51.11% 55.04% 56.34%
Longman QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National Labor Liberal National
61.59% 50.92% 52.72% 57.66% 53.57% 51.92% 56.92% 50.79% 53.28% 53.03%
Lyons TAS Labor Liberal Labor
51.31% 60.61% 58.17% 53.68% 58.78% 62.29% 51.22% 52.31% 55.18% 50.92%
Makin SA Liberal Labor
51.08% 50.94% 53.76% 50.93% 57.70% 62.20% 55.06% 59.65% 59.72% 60.80%
McEwen VIC Liberal Labor
52.18% 51.04% 51.20% 56.42% 50.01% 55.32% 50.15% 57.85% 55.02% 53.28%
Page NSW National Labor National
54.31% 52.36% 52.77% 54.23% 52.36% 54.19% 52.52% 52.30% 59.45% 60.74%
Petrie QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National
57.70% 50.75% 53.42% 57.92% 52.02% 52.51% 50.53% 51.65% 58.40% 54.44%
Robertson NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor
53.56% 52.01% 56.98% 56.81% 50.11% 51.00% 53.00% 51.14% 54.24% 52.26%
Solomon NT Did not exist Country Liberal Labor Country Liberal Labor
50.09% 52.81% 50.19% 51.75% 51.40% 56.00% 53.08% 59.37%

Canada[edit]

In theCanadian provinceofOntario,Sarnia—Lambton(and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from1963until2011.This streak was broken in2015,when theConservative Partyheld the district while theLiberal Partywon government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since.Toronto—St. Paul'shas only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in1935,although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years.BurlingtonandSt. Catharinescurrently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since1984.Also in Ontario,Peterborough—Kawartha(called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since1977.In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral districtPeterborough—Kawartha(also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from1965to1979and 1984 until2021,inclusive.

InAlberta,the provincial electoral districtPeace Riverhas elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

InManitoba,the federal district ofWinnipeg Southhas voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in1988;a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from1917until1974inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in1965.Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding ofRossmere,which has existed since1969,has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of1977;it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.

Germany[edit]

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (thenWest Germany) in 1949, the state where the leadingparty listvote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times isSchleswig-Holstein(with two misses:1969and2005), followed by the state ofLower Saxony(with misses in1949,1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest beingKielandHannoverrespectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in whichGerhard Schröderwas the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won).

Of the first vote constituencies (Erststimmen), the constituency ofPinneberg(also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.[7]

Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the2021 German federal electionthe SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by formerFirst Mayor of Hamburg,Olaf Scholz,the State ofHamburgborders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the DistrictPotsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming IIin Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran againstAnnalena Baerbockcandidate for chancellor ofAlliance 90/The Greens,drawing additional media attention to the District).

India[edit]

Two individual seats,ValsadandWest Delhi,have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last elevengeneral elections in India.[8]Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats inDelhihas always gone on to form the national government since 1998.[9]

The state ofUttar Pradeshis also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.[10]

Ireland[edit]

Ireland has aproportional representationelectoral system, in which politicians are elected by thesingle transferable vote.Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the1981 general electionand2011 general election,Meathand its successors,Meath EastandMeath West,have elected a majority ofFianna FáilTDsin years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority ofFine GaelandLabourTDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand[edit]

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates:Hamilton EastandHamilton West,both based around the city ofHamilton,[11]andNorthcoteonAuckland's North Shore.[12]Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the1993 electionfor Hamilton West and the2005 electionfor Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993,1999,and 2005. They were all held by theNational Partyinthe 2017 electionalthoughLabourformed the government after the election. Since theNational Partywas still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

Philippines[edit]

In the Philippines, the winner of thePhilippine presidential electionhas won inNegros Orientalin all instances since1935except for1961and2016,and inBasilansince its creation in December 1973 (first election in1981). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016,Agusan del NorteandLanao del Surthen had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the1969 election.Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak.

For vice presidential elections,Pangasinanhas voted for the winner in all elections save for1986and2016.

Portugal[edit]

In every general election to thePortuguese National Assemblysince therestoration of democracyin 1975, the electoral district ofBragahas voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following theelections of 2015,a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

In every general,European Union,mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since theCarnation Revolution,the Portuguese capital ofLisbonvoted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.

Romania[edit]

Presidential elections

The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:

Sweden[edit]

The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige"('AsLjungbyvotes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results inKarlstad,Kalmar,andHalmstadmore closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to theRiksdag.[13]While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by2022this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general.[14]

According toStatistics Sweden,election results inKarlstadwere the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media throughGallup Pollsshowing voting intentions in the area.[15][13]Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden.[16]Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town.

By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to the left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 includedAlingsås,Borlänge,GävleandKarlskoga.These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins.[17]In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results.

United Kingdom[edit]

United Kingdom constituenciesof theHouse of Commonsall see a change at least every few decades to avoidmalapportionment,apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after.

Long-running bellwether constituencies

Former bellwether constituencies

While not strictly a bellwether,Sunderland South(Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy.

London Borough elections[edit]

Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965,Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Councilelections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly) the most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result.

Scottish Parliament[edit]

TheconstituenciesofCunninghame North,StirlingandNa h-Eileanan an Iarhave all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for everyScottish Parliament election.

Also, the constituencies ofAlmond Valley,Dundee City West,Edinburgh Eastern,Glasgow Southside,Kilmarnock and Irvine ValleyandMid Fife and Glenrotheseach elected an MSP from the largest party in the2011and2016elections. This continues the trend that theirpredecessor constituencies(Livingston,Dundee West,Edinburgh East & Musselburgh,Glasgow Govan,Kilmarnock & LoudounandFife Central) achieved in the1999,2003and2007elections.

Welsh Parliament[edit]

The followingconstituencies(as of the 2021 election) have elected MSs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for everySenedd (and former Assembly) electionsince 1999:

AsLabourhas won the most seats since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour.

United States[edit]

For a list of bellwether counties, seeList of election bellwether counties in the United States.

The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college areMichigan,Pennsylvania,andWisconsin;their streaks date back to only 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:[19]

  • Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%)
  • New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%)
  • Illinois– 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)
  • Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)

Highest percentage of thecurrent party system,1980-2020

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[20]include:

  • Ohio – 2.2%
  • New Mexico – 2.8%
  • Illinois – 3.6%
  • Missouri– 3.7%
  • Delaware– 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century include:

Historic bellwether states:

TheTerritory of Guamhad no misses from1984to2012(100.0%); it lackselectoral collegevotes, but conducts apresidential straw voteon local election day. From 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[24]Due to theElectoral Collegesystem, bellwethers of sufficient size form the focus of political attention and presidential campaigns asswing states.By 2016, Ohio and, with almost double its electors, Florida, were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and politically mixed breakdown. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so the party campaigns there intensively.[25]The period from 1964 to 2016 ties Ohio with Pennsylvania, from 1828 to 1880, as the longest consecutive bellwether streak in US history. In the2020 electionJoe Bidendefeated incumbentDonald Trumpwithout winning either Ohio or Florida. He won Arizona, which no other Democratic candidate had won since1996,and Georgia (of similar population size to Ohio), which no Democrat had since1992,meaning the number of swing states has increased and a winning Democratic campaign could, potentially, focus much less on Ohio and Florida.

Others[edit]

Brazil[edit]

InBrazil's direct presidential elections the winner has taken the state ofMinas Geraisin thelast-roundfrom1955to2022,inclusive.[26]It has more than 21 million residents, includesBelo Horizonteand has been birthplace of the record of nine presidents to date.[27]The state has 10.1% of the population.

It is varied in topography and larger than Metropolitan France, being considered as a microcosm of Brazil's society and economics as a whole.[28]

France[edit]

Since the substantial role began in 1958, under theFrench Fifth Republic,the president has since1965in the final (second) round always won: diminutiveArdècheand with about double its population each,Calvados,Charente-Maritime,Indre-et-LoireandLoire.[29][30]Together these account for more than 3 million residents. Each combines urban with rural and many touristic sites.

South Korea[edit]

Since the1987presidential election, the central, thus somewhat mountainous,provinceofNorth Chungcheongis the only one of the 17 first-tier divisions in which the most voted candidate for thepresidencyhas consistently become the national winner. It has more than one and half million residents.

Spain[edit]

Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019 two provinces have always voted for the winning party (ZaragozaandHuesca). TheAutonomous CommunityofAragonhosts these provinces. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.[31]It has more than a million residents and combines much rural land with mountains and socially diverse urban communities.

Taiwan[edit]

From the first competitive multi-party elections in1996,Changhua County,a west coastregion of Taiwanof more than a million residents, is where the preference has matched the elected president.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

Look upbellwetherin Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
  1. ^abc"bellwether."Cambridge Dictionary.Retrieved 2022-01-22.
  2. ^abc"Bellwether".Investopedia.Retrieved2022-01-22.
  3. ^ab"Definition of BELLWETHER".merriam-webster.Retrieved2022-01-22.
  4. ^"bellwether bond."Cambridge Dictionary.Retrieved 2022-01-22.
  5. ^"The Bellwether Model - Suffolk University".suffolk.edu.Retrieved2022-01-22.
  6. ^abBerkes, Howard (2008-10-24)."What Is An Election Bellwether?".NPR.Retrieved2022-01-22.
  7. ^"Germany's electoral oracle struggles to divine the post-Merkel future".Financial Times.2021-09-24.Retrieved2023-02-11.
  8. ^"Lok Sabha polls: A look at India's bellwether seats — whoever wins these, wins the election".Moneycontrol.
  9. ^Prabhash K. Dutta New (May 11, 2019)."With just 7 Lok Sabha seats, Delhi decides who becomes PM".India Today.
  10. ^"Will Uttar Pradesh be 'bellwether' or exception again?".Business Standard India.May 20, 2019 – via Business Standard.
  11. ^Ihaka, James (13 October 2008)."Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat".The New Zealand Herald.Retrieved19 September2011.
  12. ^Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008)."Street shows swing voters".The New Zealand Herald.Retrieved19 September2011.
  13. ^ab"Som Karlstad röstar, röstar SverigeArchived2017-03-26 at theWayback Machine",Statistiska Centralbyrån,6 March 2006.
  14. ^"Valresultat 2022 för Ljungby i riksdagsvalet"(in Swedish).SVT.11 September 2022.Retrieved26 January2024.
  15. ^"Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin".Fof.se. September 2006.Retrieved2012-03-24.
  16. ^"Valresultat 2022 för Karlstad i riksdagsvalet"(in Swedish).SVT.11 September 2022.Retrieved26 January2024.
  17. ^"Valresultat 2022 - för riksdagsvalet, region- och kommunval"(in Swedish).SVT.11 September 2022.Retrieved26 January2024.
  18. ^"Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave".Reuters (editorial). 24 June 2016.Retrieved2016-09-17.
  19. ^Kondik, Kyle (2016).The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President.Ohio University Press. p. 22.Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.
  20. ^Kondik, Kyle (2016).The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President.Ohio University Press. p. 23.
  21. ^Sullivan, Robert David (8 June 2015)."How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor".America Magazine.Retrieved13 August2016.
  22. ^Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012)."Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall".USA Today.Retrieved13 August2016.
  23. ^Everson, David (February 1990)."Illinois as a bellwether: So what?".Archived fromthe originalon 4 March 2016.Retrieved13 August2016.
  24. ^Leip, David."Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".uselectionatlas.org.
  25. ^Fessenden, Ford."Ballots Cast by Blacks and Older Voters Were Tossed in Far Greater Numbers",The New York Times(November 12, 2001).
  26. ^"Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons".commons.wikimedia.org.
  27. ^Gabriel Maia; Gabriel Zanlorenssi; Rodolfo Almeida (28 February 2018)."Os presidentes do Brasil: mandato, formação, cidade e idade".Nexo Jornal.Retrieved11 June2018.
  28. ^Brazil’s election is tight ahead of a run-off on October 30th,The Economist,October 27th, 2022
  29. ^"L'élection présidentielle en France - Politiquemania".politiquemania.
  30. ^"Résultats pour Marine Le Pen au second tour de l'élection présidentielle 2022 en France: 2nd tour".
  31. ^"Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies".electionresources.org.
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