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Human extinction

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"Omnicide" redirects here. For other uses, seeOmnicide (disambiguation).
For methodological challenges quantifying and mitigating the risk, proposed mitigation measures, and related organizations, seeGlobal catastrophic risk.
Nuclear waris an often-predicted cause of the extinction of humankind.[1]

Human extinctionis the hypotheticalendof thehuman species,either bypopulation declinedue to extraneous natural causes, such as anasteroid impactorlarge-scale volcanism,or viaanthropogenic destruction(self-extinction), for example bysub-replacement fertility.

Some of themany possible contributorsto anthropogenic hazard areclimate change,global nuclear annihilation,biological warfare,weapons of mass destruction,andecological collapse.Other scenarios center on emerging technologies, such asadvanced artificial intelligence,biotechnology,orself-replicating nanobots.

The scientific consensus is that there is a relatively low risk of near-term human extinction due to natural causes.[2][3]The likelihood of human extinction through humankind's own activities, however, is a current area of research and debate.

History of thought[edit]

Early history of thinking about human extinction[edit]

Before the 18th and 19th centuries, the possibility that humans or other organisms could become extinct was viewed with scepticism.[4]It contradicted theprinciple of plenitude,a doctrine that all possible things exist.[4]The principle traces back toAristotle,and was an important tenet of Christian theology.[5]Ancient philosophers such asPlato,Aristotle,andLucretiuswrote of the end of humankind only as part of a cycle of renewal.Marcion of Sinopewas a proto-protestant who advocated forantinatalismthat could lead to human extinction.[6][7]Later philosophers such asAl-Ghazali,William of Ockham,andGerolamo Cardanoexpanded the study oflogicandprobabilityand began wondering if abstract worlds existed, including a world without humans. PhysicistEdmond Halleystated that the extinction of the human race may be beneficial to the future of the world.[8]

The notion that species can become extinct gained scientific acceptance during theAge of Enlightenmentin the 17th and 18th centuries, and by 1800Georges Cuvierhad identified 23 extinct prehistoric species.[4]The doctrine was further gradually undermined by evidence from the natural sciences, particularly the discovery of fossil evidence of species that appeared to no longer exist, and the development of theories of evolution.[5]InOn the Origin of Species,Darwindiscussed the extinction of species as a natural process and a core component of natural selection.[9]Notably, Darwin was skeptical of the possibility of sudden extinction, viewing it as a gradual process. He held that the abrupt disappearances of species from the fossil record were not evidence of catastrophic extinctions, but rather represented unrecognised gaps[clarification needed]in the record.[9]

As the possibility of extinction became more widely established in the sciences, so did the prospect of human extinction.[4]In the 19th century, human extinction became a popular topic in science (e.g.,Thomas Robert Malthus'sAn Essay on the Principle of Population) and fiction (e.g.,Jean-Baptiste Cousin de Grainville'sThe Last Man). In 1863, a few years afterCharles DarwinpublishedOn the Origin of Species,William Kingproposed thatNeanderthalswere an extinct species of the genusHomo.TheRomanticauthors and poets were particularly interested in the topic.[4]Lord Byronwrote about the extinction of life on Earth in his 1816 poem "Darkness",and in 1824 envisaged humanity being threatened by a comet impact, and employing a missile system to defend against it.[4]Mary Shelley's 1826 novelThe Last Manis set in a world where humanity has been nearly destroyed by a mysterious plague.[4]At the turn of the 20th century,Russian cosmism,a precursor to moderntranshumanism,advocated avoiding humanity's extinction by colonizing space.[4]

Atomic era[edit]

Castle Romeonuclear test onBikini Atoll

The invention of the atomic bomb prompted a wave of discussion among scientists, intellectuals, and the public at large about the risk of human extinction.[4]In a 1945 essay,Bertrand Russellwrote that "[T]he prospect for the human race is sombre beyond all precedent. Mankind are faced with a clear-cut alternative: either we shall all perish, or we shall have to acquire some slight degree of common sense."[10]In 1950,Leo Szilardsuggested it was technologically feasible to build acobalt bombthat could render the planet unlivable. A 1950 Gallup poll found that 19% of Americans believed that another world war would mean "an end to mankind".[11]Rachel Carson's 1962 bookSilent Springraised awareness of environmental catastrophe. In 1983,Brandon Carterproposed theDoomsday argument,which usedBayesian probabilityto predict the total number of humans that will ever exist.

The discovery of "nuclear winter"in the early 1980s, a specific mechanism by which nuclear war could result in human extinction, again raised the issue to prominence. Writing about these findings in 1983,Carl Saganargued that measuring the severity of extinction solely in terms of those who die "conceals its full impact", and that nuclear war "imperils all of our descendants, for as long as there will be humans."[12]

Post-Cold War[edit]

John Leslie's 1996 bookThe End of The Worldwas an academic treatment of the science and ethics of human extinction. In it, Leslie considered a range of threats to humanity and what they have in common. In 2003, BritishAstronomer RoyalSirMartin ReespublishedOur Final Hour,in which he argues that advances in certain technologies create new threats to the survival of humankind and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided.[13]Edited byNick BostromandMilan M. Ćirković,Global Catastrophic Riskswas published in 2008, a collection of essays from 26 academics on various global catastrophic and existential risks.[14]Toby Ord's 2020 bookThe Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanityargues that preventing existential risks is one of the most important moral issues of our time. The book discusses, quantifies, and compares different existential risks, concluding that the greatest risks are presented by unaligned artificial intelligence and biotechnology.[15]

Causes[edit]

Main article:Global catastrophe scenarios

Potential anthropogenic causes of human extinction includeglobal thermonuclear war,deployment of a highly effectivebiological weapon,an ecological collapse,runaway artificial intelligence,runawaynanotechnology(such as agrey gooscenario),vacuum metastability disaster,overpopulationandincreased consumptionpose the risk of resource depletion and a concomitant population crash,population declineby choosing to have fewer children, displacement of naturally evolved humans by a new species produced bygenetic engineeringor technological augmentation. Natural and external extinction risks include high-fatality-ratepandemic,supervolcaniceruption,asteroid impact,nearbysupernovaorgamma-ray bursts,extremesolar flare,oralien invasion.

Humans (e.g.Homo sapiens sapiens) as a species may also be considered to have "gone extinct" simply by being replaced with distant descendants whose continuedevolutionmay produce new species or subspeciesHomoor ofhominids.

Without intervention by unexpected forces, thestellar evolutionof the Sunis expectedto make Earth uninhabitable, then destroy it. Depending onits ultimate fate,the entire universe may eventually become uninhabitable.

Probability[edit]

Natural vs. anthropogenic[edit]

Experts generally agree that anthropogenic existential risks are (much) more likely than natural risks.[16][13][17][2][18]A key difference between these risk types is that empirical evidence can place an upper bound on the level of natural risk.[2]Humanity has existed for at least 200,000 years, over which it has been subject to a roughly constant level of natural risk. If the natural risk were sufficiently high, then it would be highly unlikely that humanity would have survived as long as it has. Based on a formalization of this argument, researchers have concluded that we can be confident that natural risk is lower than 1 in 14,000 per year (equivalent to 1 in 140 per century, on average).[2]

Another empirical method to study the likelihood of certain natural risks is to investigate the geological record.[16]For example, acomet or asteroid impact eventsufficient in scale to cause animpact winterthat would cause human extinction before the year 2100 has been estimated at one-in-a-million.[19][20]Moreover, largesupervolcanoeruptions may cause avolcanic winterthat could endanger the survival of humanity.[21]The geological record suggests that supervolcanic eruptions are estimated to occur on average about once every 50,000 years, though most such eruptions would not reach the scale required to cause human extinction.[21]Famously, the supervolcanoMt. Toba may have almost wiped out humanityat the time of its last eruption (though this is contentious).[21][22]

Since anthropogenic risk is a relatively recent phenomenon, humanity's track record of survival cannot provide similar assurances.[2]Humanity has only survived 78 years since the creation of nuclear weapons, and for future technologies, there is no track record. This has led thinkers likeCarl Saganto conclude that humanity is currently in a "time of perils"[23]– a uniquely dangerous period in human history, where it is subject to unprecedented levels of risk, beginning from when humans first started posing risk to themselves through their actions.[16][24]

Risk estimates[edit]

Given the limitations of ordinary observation and modeling,expert elicitationis frequently used instead to obtain probability estimates.[25]

  • Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according toJ. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversialdoomsday argument,which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.[26]
  • In 1996,John A. Leslieestimated a 30% risk over the next five centuries (equivalent to around 6% per century, on average).[27]
  • In 2003,Martin Reesestimated a 50% chance of collapse of civilisation in the twenty-first century.[28]
  • A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence by 2100.[17]
  • TheGlobal Challenges Foundation's 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average).[29]
  • A 2016 survey of AI experts found a median estimate of 5% that human-level AI would cause an outcome that was "extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)".[30]In 2019, the risk was lowered to 2%, but in 2022, it was increased back to 5%. In 2023, the risk doubled to 10%.[31]In 2024, the risk doubled to 20%, according to Elon Musk.[32]
  • In 2020,Toby Ordestimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his bookThe Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.[16][33]He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
  • According to the July 10, 2023 article ofThe Economist,scientists estimated a 12% chance of AI-caused catastrophe and a 3% chance of AI-caused extinction by 2100. They also estimate an 8% chance of Nuclear War causing global catastrophe and a 0.5625% chance of Nuclear War causing human extinction.[34]
  • In May 1, 2023, The Treaty on Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cooperation (TAISC) estimated a 30.5% risk of an AI-caused catastrophe by 2200, although they also estimated a 32.2% risk of an AI-caused catastrophe by 2026, if there is no 6 month moratorium.[35]
  • As of March 26, 2024,Metaculususers estimate a 1% probability of human extinction by 2100.[36]
  • In a 2010 interview withThe Australian,the late Australian scientistFrank Fennerpredicted the extinction of the human race within a century, primarily as the result ofhuman overpopulation,environmental degradationand climate change.[37]
  • According to a 2020 study published inScientific Reports,ifdeforestationand resourceconsumptioncontinue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by the study, the chances that human civilization survives are smaller than 10%. To avoid this collapse, the study says, humanity should pass from a civilization dominated by the economy to a "cultural society" that "privileges the interest of the ecosystem above the individual interest of its components, but eventually in accordance with the overall communal interest."[38][39]
  • Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at theUniversity of Oxfordknown for his work onexistential risk,argues that it would be "misguided"[40]to assume that the probability of near-term extinction is less than 25% and that it will be "a tall order" for the human race to "get our precautions sufficiently right the first time", given that an existential risk provides no opportunity to learn from failure.[3][19]
  • PhilosopherJohn A. Leslieassigns a 70% chance of humanity surviving the next five centuries, based partly on the controversial philosophicaldoomsday argumentthat Leslie champions. Leslie's argument is somewhatfrequentist,based on the observation that human extinction has never been observed, but requires subjective anthropic arguments.[41]Leslie also discusses the anthropicsurvivorship bias(which he calls an "observational selection" effect on page 139) and states that thea prioricertainty of observing an "undisastrous past" could make it difficult to argue that we must be safe because nothing terrible has yet occurred. He quotesHolger Bech Nielsen's formulation: "We do not even know if there should exist some extremely dangerous decay of say the proton which caused the eradication of the earth, because if it happens we would no longer be there to observe it and if it does not happen there is nothing to observe."[42]
  • Jean-Marc Salotti calculated the probability of human extinction caused by a giant asteroid impact.[43]It is between 0.03 and 0.3 for the next billion years, if there is no colonization of other planets. According to that study, the most frightening object is a giant long-period comet with a warning time of a few years only and therefore no time for any intervention in space or settlement on the Moon or Mars. The probability of a giant comet impact in the next hundred years is2.2×10−12.[43]
Further information:Nuclear holocaust § Likelihood of complete human extinction

Individual vs. species risks[edit]

Although existential risks are less manageable by individuals than, for example, health risks, according to Ken Olum,Joshua Knobe,and Alexander Vilenkin, the possibility of human extinctiondoeshave practical implications. For instance, if the "universal"doomsday argumentis accepted, it changes the most likely source of disasters, and hence the most efficient means of preventing them. They write: "...you should be more concerned that a large number of asteroids have not yet been detected than about the particular orbit of each one. You should not worry especially about the chance that some specific nearby star will become a supernova, but more about the chance that supernovas are more deadly to nearby life than we believe."[44]

Difficulty[edit]

Some scholars argue that certain scenarios such as globalthermonuclear warwould have difficulty eradicating every last settlement on Earth. Physicist Willard Wells points out that any credible extinction scenario would have to reach into a diverse set of areas, including the underground subways of major cities, the mountains of Tibet, the remotest islands of the South Pacific, and even toMcMurdo Stationin Antarctica, which has contingency plans and supplies for long isolation.[45]In addition, elaborate bunkers exist for government leaders to occupy during a nuclear war.[19]The existence ofnuclear submarines,which can stay hundreds of meters deep in the ocean for potentially years at a time, should also be considered. Any number of events could lead to a massive loss of human life, but if the last few (seeminimum viable population) most resilient humans are unlikely to also die off, then that particular human extinction scenario may not seem credible.[46]

Ethics[edit]

Value of human life[edit]

Placard against omnicide, atExtinction Rebellion(2018)

"Existential risks" are risks that threaten the entire future of humanity, whether by causing human extinction or by otherwise permanently crippling human progress.[3]Multiple scholars have argued based on the size of the "cosmic endowment" that because of the inconceivably large number of potential future lives that are at stake, even small reductions of existential risk have great value.

In one of the earliest discussions of ethics of human extinction,Derek Parfitoffers the following thought experiment:[47]

I believe that if we destroy mankind, as we now can, this outcome will be much worse than most people think. Compare three outcomes:

(1) Peace.
(2) A nuclear war that kills 99% of the world's existing population.
(3) A nuclear war that kills 100%.

(2) would be worse than (1), and (3) would be worse than (2). Which is the greater of these two differences? Most people believe that the greater difference is between (1) and (2). I believe that the difference between (2) and (3) is very much greater.

— Derek Parfit

The scale of what is lost in an existential catastrophe is determined by humanity's long-term potential – what humanity could expect to achieve if it survived.[16]From autilitarianperspective, the value of protecting humanity is the product of its duration (how long humanity survives), its size (how many humans there are over time), and its quality (on average, how good is life for future people).[16]: 273 [48]On average, species survive for around a million years before going extinct. Parfit points out that the Earth will remain habitable for around a billion years.[47]And these might be lower bounds on our potential: if humanity is able toexpand beyond Earth,it could greatly increase the human population and survive for trillions of years.[49][16]: 21 The size of the foregone potential that would be lost, were humanity to become extinct, is very large. Therefore, reducing existential risk by even a small amount would have a very significant moral value.[3][50]

Carl Saganwrote in 1983: "If we are required to calibrate extinction in numerical terms, I would be sure to include the number of people infuture generationswho would not be born.... (By one calculation), the stakes are one million times greater for extinction than for the more modest nuclear wars that kill "only" hundreds of millions of people. There are many other possible measures of the potential loss – including culture and science, the evolutionary history of the planet, and the significance of the lives of all of our ancestors who contributed to the future of their descendants. Extinction is the undoing of the human enterprise. "[51]

PhilosopherRobert Adamsin 1989 rejected Parfit's "impersonal" views but spoke instead of a moral imperative for loyalty and commitment to "the future of humanity as a vast project... The aspiration for a better society – more just, more rewarding, and more peaceful... our interest in the lives of our children and grandchildren, and the hopes that they will be able, in turn, to have the lives of their children and grandchildren as projects."[52]

PhilosopherNick Bostromargues in 2013 thatpreference-satisfactionist,democratic, custodial, and intuitionist arguments all converge on the common-sense view that preventing existential risk is a high moral priority, even if the exact "degree of badness" of human extinction varies between these philosophies.[53]

Parfit argues that the size of the "cosmic endowment" can be calculated from the following argument: If Earth remains habitable for a billion more years and can sustainably support a population of more than a billion humans, then there is a potential for 1016(or 10,000,000,000,000,000) human lives of normal duration.[54]Bostrom goes further, stating that if the universe is empty, then theaccessible universecan support at least 1034biological human life-years; and, if some humans were uploaded onto computers, could even support the equivalent of 1054cybernetic human life-years.[3]

Some economists and philosophers have defended views, includingexponential discountingandperson-affecting views of population ethics,on which future people do not matter (or matter much less), morally speaking.[55]While these views are controversial,[19][56][57]they would agree that an existential catastrophe would be among the worst things imaginable. It would cut short the lives of eight billion presently existing people, destroying all of what makes their lives valuable, and most likely subjecting many of them to profound suffering. So even setting aside the value of future generations, there may be strong reasons to reduce existential risk, grounded in concern for presently existing people.[58]

Beyond utilitarianism, other moral perspectives lend support to the importance of reducing existential risk. An existential catastrophe would destroy more than just humanity – it would destroy all cultural artifacts, languages, and traditions, and many of the things we value.[16][59]So moral viewpoints on which we have duties to protect and cherish things of value would see this as a huge loss that should be avoided.[16]One can also consider reasons grounded in duties to past generations. For instance,Edmund Burkewrites of a "partnership...between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born".[60]If one takes seriously the debt humanity owes to past generations, Ord argues the best way of repaying it might be to "pay it forward", and ensure that humanity's inheritance is passed down to future generations.[16]: 49–51 

There are several economists who have discussed the importance of global catastrophic risks. For example,Martin Weitzmanargues that most of the expected economic damage fromclimate changemay come from the small chance that warming greatly exceeds the mid-range expectations, resulting in catastrophic damage.[61]Richard Posnerhas argued that humanity is doing far too little, in general, about small, hard-to-estimate risks of large-scale catastrophes.[62]

Voluntary extinction[edit]

Voluntary Human Extinction Movement

Some philosophers adopt theantinatalistposition that human extinction would not be a bad thing, but a good thing.David Benatarargues that coming into existence is always serious harm, and therefore it is better that people do not come into existence in the future.[63]Further, David Benatar, animal rights activistSteven Best,and anarchistTodd May,posit that human extinction would be a positive thing for the other organisms on the planet, and the planet itself, citing, for example, the omnicidal nature of human civilization.[64][65][66]The environmental view in favor of human extinction is shared by the members ofVoluntary Human Extinction Movementand theChurch of Euthanasiawho call for refraining from reproduction and allowing the human species to go peacefully extinct, thus stopping furtherenvironmental degradation.[67]

In fiction[edit]

Main article:Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction

Jean-Baptiste Cousin de Grainville's 1805science fantasynovelLe dernier homme(The Last Man), which depicts human extinction due to infertility, is considered the first modern apocalyptic novel and credited with launching the genre.[68]Other notable early works includeMary Shelley's 1826The Last Man,depicting human extinction caused by apandemic,andOlaf Stapledon's 1937Star Maker,"a comparative study of omnicide".[4]

Some 21st century pop-science works, includingThe World Without UsbyAlan Weisman,and the television specialsLife After PeopleandAftermath: Population Zeropose athought experiment:what would happen to the rest of the planet if humans suddenly disappeared?[69][70]A threat of human extinction, such as through atechnological singularity(also called an intelligence explosion), drives the plot of innumerable science fiction stories; an influential early example is the 1951 film adaption ofWhen Worlds Collide.[71]Usually the extinction threat is narrowly avoided, but some exceptions exist, such asR.U.R.andSteven Spielberg'sA.I.[72][page needed]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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Further reading[edit]

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