Insurgency in Chad (2016–present)

Insurgency in Chad
Map of Chad
Date 2016 – present (7–8 years) Location Mainly northern regions ofChad,with spillovers atCentral African Republic–Chad border Status Ongoing Idriss Déby was killed in action, during theNorthern Chad offensive Mahamat Déby Itno becomes his successor, along established himself as the Chairman of theTransitional Military Council(TMC) and dissolves theChadian parliamentafter death of Idriss Déby Ceasefire agreement signed between TMC and 42 rebel groups in August 2022
Belligerents
Chad France Central African Republic(2023) JEM	FACT CCMSR UFR FNDJT MDJT UFDD FPRN FPR MRST RPJET (At least 47 rebel groups overall)
Commanders and leaders
Idriss Déby† Mahamat Déby Itno	Mahamat Mahdi Ali Timane Erdimi
Strength
Unknown	c.7,000 overall (2023)
Casualties and losses
Unknown	More than 300 rebels
644 deaths in total (by July 2022)

In 2016, theFront for Change and Concord in Chad(FACT) and theMilitary Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic(CCMSR) began a rebellion against theChadian government.From their rear bases in southernLibya,FACT and CCMSR have launched offensives and raids into Northern Chad seeking to overthrow the government of former presidentIdriss Déby,who had been in power since aDecember 1990 coup.Other rebel groups are also involved in the insurgency, though to a lesser extent.

In 2021, Idriss Déby was killed during a major rebel offensive. Despite this, the insurgents were ultimately repelled andMahamat Déby Itnorose to succeed his father as ruler of Chad. Though a ceasefire agreement was signed by many insurgent groups in August 2022, this failed to fully contain the uprising. By 2024, the insurgency was ongoing in the north and had spread to theborder oftheCentral African Republic.

Background

Further information:Chadian Civil War (2005–2010)

Historically, Chad has suffered from a large number of civil wars, foreign conflicts, and coups since its independence from France in 1958.Idriss Déby seized the Chadian presidency in a military coup in 1990. Since then, he enjoyed backing by both Franceand China.Déby's government was able to repeatedly defeat rebellions against his rule. Militant opposition groups were eventually driven from the country into exile.After the end of theChadian Civil War (2005–2010),Chadian insurgents were forced to leave their old bases inSudan.Many consequently moved into Libya which fell into unrest from 2011 due to theFirst Libyan Civil War.

In 2014, theSecond Libyan Civil Warbroke out. Several Chadian rebel groups consequently becamemercenariesin service of various Libyan factions, receiving money and weaponry to prepare for their return to Chad.

Insurgency

Emergence of new rebel groups and battles for Kouri Bougoudi

Two new Chadian rebel groups,FACTand theCCMSR,were organized in southern Libya in 2016and aided local groups in return for money, equipment, and other support. FACT initially became allied to aMisrata-based faction.By 2017, the Chadian intelligence believed that rebels led byTimane Erdimi,a nephew and long-time opponent of Idriss Déby, were gathering weapons in southern Libya.

In July 2017, the CCMSR launched an offensive on Kouri Bougoudi seeking to seize control of the region and its lucrative mines. These assaults were ultimately repelled by the Chadian government although the CCMSR claimed to have launched a second attack in August 2017 which the Chadian government denied took place.In September, Chad severed diplomatic relations withQatar,accusing it of attempting to destabilize the country. Journalist Ben Taub suspected that this development was related to Qatar harboring Timane Erdimi who was still trying to overthrow Déby.

By fall, fighting between government loyalists and insurgents grew more frequent along the Chadian-Libyan border. Déby responded by relocating hundreds of Chadian soldiers who had been sent to fight againstBoko Haramto the north.

On 11 August 2018, CCMSR launched a major attack on the military outpost at Kouri Bougoudi in theTibesti Mountains,later claiming to have killed 73 and captured 45 soldiers while suffering just 11 casualties (4 dead, 7 wounded). The Chadian government initially attempted to deny that the attack had taken place, and then downplayed its significance. While the CCMSR offered to release its prisoners in return for the release of imprisoned rebel leaders, the Chadian government refused to negotiate with "savage mercenaries, bandits [and] thugs",and instead ordered local miners to abandon their camp at Kouri Bougoudi. The military subsequently retreated from the area on 22 August, leaving it to the CCMSR and illegal miners.From then on, theChadian Air Forcelaunched several bombing raids in the region, targeting the Kouri Bougoudi mining camp and camel herds, killing several civilians and depriving locals of their livelihood. Meanwhile, the CCMSR continued its attacks against government positions, such as at Tarbou inTibesti Region(21 September), and Miski inBorkou Region(24 October).Some locals criticised the CCMSR of exploiting and worsening ethnic tensions in the Tibesti Mountains.

Minor rebel incursions

On 12 January 2019, a Sudanese armed group, theJustice and Equality Movement,crossed the border with Libya with dozens of vehicles and attacked CCSMR positions in Kouri Bougoudi.According to JEM 67 of its fighters were killed while CCSMR reported three dead and 12 wounded.On 3–6 February, theFrench Air Forceconducted airstrikes onUnion of Resistance Forces(UFR) troops who had launched a raid into Chad. On 9 February 2019, the Chadian army claimed to have captured 250 rebels including four leaders and destroyed forty vehicles.French Foreign MinisterJean-Yves Le Drianexplained the operation by claiming that France had acted "to prevent a coup d'etat".

In addition, FACT switched its allies in Libya in 2019, aligning itself withKhalifa Haftar.The group relocated toAl Jufra Airbase,where it received training and equipment in return for its aid to Haftar's campaigns. The base also harbored mercenaries of the RussianWagner Group,former Blackwater associates, and troops of theUnited Arab Emirates Armed Forces.

Death of Idriss Déby and national dialogue

Main article:2021 Northern Chad offensive

See also:2021 Chadian presidential election

Chadian government representatives announce an amnesty for ex-rebels and political prisoners in late 2021

In early 2020, Haftar'sWestern Libya campaignfailed to captureTripoli,ultimately resulting in a ceasefire agreement in Libya. As a result, several Chadian rebel groups became free to resume their long-held plan to return to Chad.On 26 January 2021, 50FNDJTrebels on 20 4x4 vehicles attacked Post 35 in Kouri Bougoudi 40 km south of border with Libya.

On 11 April 2021, FACT launched an offensive inTibesti Regionin the north of the country following the2021 Chadian presidential election.PresidentIdriss Débywas killed during the offensive on 20 April.Despite this success, the rebel offensive ultimately failed, and the government claimed victory on 9 May 2021. The Chadian presidency passed toMahamat Déby,the son of Idriss Déby.He established theTransitional Military Council(TMC) as new governing authority, and initially refused to negotiate with insurgent groups.

Déby softened his stance in August 2021, proposing a national dialogue with the rebels. FACT expressed interest in the proposal.The discussion between the government and insurgents started in October, overseen by ex-PresidentGoukouni Oueddei.The CCMSR and FNDJT confirmed their participation.On 29 November, the Chadian government announced an amnesty for 296 rebels and political dissidents.In January 2022, more opposition figures were released by the Chadian government.

In the following month, the TMC junta accused the UFR of trying to enlist the Wagner Group to aid them in the insurgency. In doing so, UFR leader Timane Erdimi was allegedly using middlemen in theCentral African Republic.In March 2022, further peace talks were held inDoha,involving Déby's regime and several rebel groups, including FACT,MDJT,andUFDD.The peace talks made little significant progress, however,while the insurgents maintained their presence in the country's north.Amid internal disagreements, the CCMSR left the negotiations in May.In the same month, gold miners in Tibesti clashed in a battle which left over one hundred people dead; CCMSR and FACT subsequently accused the government of negligence regarding communal violence.Over 20 rebel groupsofficially pulled out of the Doha talks in mid-July 2022.At least some of these subsequently resumed negotiations, and a "majority" of the active insurgent factions agreed to sign a peace agreement later that month. However, some of the most powerful rebel groups including FACT refused to sign the agreement unless the government made more concessions.On 7 August 2022, Chad's military government signed a deal with 42 opposition groups. Five other rebel factions –including FACT– refused to join the agreement.UFR leader Timane Erdimi subsequently returned to Chad, officially to support the implementation of the National Dialogue.

In late August 2022, CCMSR declared that it had killed ten soldiers in Wouri district, northern Tibesti Region. Chadian government officials admitted that rebels had made an incursion into the country, though denied the deaths of security forces.In October, the Chadian government violently suppressed public protests in a crackdown that killed 200 people. This caused numerous opposition leaders to return to exile, and undermined the willindness of still-fighting insurgents to lay down arms.No one was held accountable for the civilians' deaths.

Renewed intensification of fighting

Chadian soldiers overseeSudanese refugeesin May 2023

By 2023, about 7,000 Chadian rebels were still active, scattered across Sudan, Libya, Niger, and Chad itself.In January 2023, a new insurgent group was founded at the Central African Republic–Chad border. Calling itself the "Revolution Movement for Southern Chad" (MRST), it claimed to have thousands of members and requested Russian support for its operations. Meanwhile, the Chadian government signed a peace agreement with a self-defence group based inMiski;the militia had previously fought against state control of the local gold mines.In March, 400 captured rebels were sentenced to life imprisonment by a Chadian court; however, Mahamat Déby Itno pardoned 380 of them.

In May 2023, rebels were battling the Chadian military in the Tibesti region as well as at the border to theCentral Africa Republic.At the same time, unrest grew in Chad's eastern regions due to a mass influx ofrefugees fleeingthecivil war in Sudan.In southern Chad, a number of deadly attacks andcattle raidswere carried out by groups operating from the Central African Republic.In response, the Chadian military cooperated with security forces of the neighboring state to destroy two rebels camps aroundPaoua.Though the Chadian government described the Paoua camps as belonging to "bandits", journalists identified them as likely bases of the MRST and theRPJETinsurgent groups.Despite the joint operation, armed militants continued to carry out cross-border raids from the Central African Republic.In general, southern Chad was affected by growing tensions between farmers and cattle herders, resulting in a number of deadly intercommunal clashes.

In August 2023, FACT accused the Chadian military of bombing one of its bases and declared the ceasefire deal to be over. The Chadian government responded by claiming that FACT had initiated hostilities by crossing the Chadian-Libyan border. Meanwhile, thePopular Front for Recovery(FPR) declared that it was siding with FACT and called on all "patriotic forces" to launch a unified "national uprising" against Déby.The CCMSR also launched new attacks in northern Chad. In the same month, Haftar'sLibyan National Armyattacked Chadian insurgent positions in Libya, mainly at Umm al-Araneb inMurzuq District;the identity of the targeted insurgent group(s) was unclear.

In January 2024, Chadian security forces arrested 80 military officers. The men, led by Lt. Kouroumta Levana Guelemi, had reportedly formed a group called "M3M" and planned an "insurrection" and/orcoup d'état.

Role of foreign forces

See also:Wagner Group activities in Africa

The Chadian government is mainly backed by French forces which have traditionally a substantial presence in the country. The French troops have fought alongside the Chadian military, and the French Air Force has provided government forces with air support during the insurgency.By 2023, Chad had become one of few remaining French allies in theSahel,as various other regional states had evicted long-standing French garrisons.China has also supplied Chad with weaponry.In 2023, Central African Republic's security forces cooperated with the Chadian military during anti-rebel operations; as the relations between the two states have been historically strained, this was seen as unusual by journalists.

The role of foreign support for the insurgents is unclear, but it is widely suspected by researchers and local governments that various foreign actors are involved in the rebellion. Various Chadian rebel groups are known to occasionally ally with the Libyan forces of Khalifa Haftar; thus, Haftar's troops may have provided the insurgents with training and equipment.However, there have also been open clashes between Haftar's forces and some Chadian rebels.Furthermore, the Al Jufra Airbase in Libya was supplied by theUnited Arab Emiratesduring its occupation by Chadian rebels. Mercenaries belonging to theWagner Grouphave been spotted at the base, alongside former as well as currentBlackwatermembers.In 2023, the United States intelligence leaked documents according to which the Wagner Group was cooperating withHemedti-head of the SudaneseRapid Support Forces- to recruit as well as train Chad rebels in the Central African Republic with the ultimate goal of overthrowing the Chadian government.