Marginal seat
 | This articleneeds additional citations forverification.(August 2015) |
Amarginal seatorswing seatis aconstituencyheld with a small majority in alegislativeelection,generally one conducted under asingle-winner voting system.In Canada, they may be known astarget ridings.[1]The opposite is asafe seat.The termultra-marginal seatrefers to a constituency with a majority of single digits, usually within a percentage of 2%.[2]
Examples of traditionally marginal seats in the United Kingdom includeBroxtowe,Watford,Bolton WestandThurrock.In Australia, marginal seats includeLindsayinNew South Wales,BassinTasmania,LongmaninQueenslandandCorangamiteinVictoria.Ultra-marginal seats in Australia include the federal seat ofGilmorein New South Wales and the state seats ofBundabergin Queensland andKogarahin New South Wales.
Examples
[edit]Australia
[edit]TheAustralian Electoral Commissiondefines seat margins as follows:[3][4]
| Winning2PP vote | Margin | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| 50 to 56% | 0 to 6% | Marginal |
| 56 to 60% | 6 to 10% | Fairly safe |
| 60 to 68% | 10 to 18% | Safe |
| Over 68% | Over 18% | Very safe |
Federal
[edit]Following the2022 federal election,51 of the 151 seats in theHouse of Representativesare considered "marginal". The most marginal is theDivision of Gilmorein New South Wales, held by theLabor Partyon a margin of 0.17% against theLiberal Party.This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.
New South Wales
[edit]Following the2023 state election,18 of the 93 seats in theNew South Wales Legislative Assemblyare marginal seats. The most marginal isRyde,held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won byJordan Laneby just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MPVictor Dominello.It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.
Northern Territory
[edit]Following the2020 general election,11 of the 25 seats in theNorthern Territory Legislative Assemblyare marginal seats. The most marginal isBarkly,held by theCountry Liberal Partyon a margin of 0.1% against the Labor Party, who lost the seat by just five votes.
Queensland
[edit]Following the2020 state election,29 of the 93 seats in theLegislative Assembly of Queenslandare marginal seats. The most marginal is theBundaberg,held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against theLiberal National Party,who lost the seat by just nine votes.
South Australia
[edit]Following the2022 state election,17 of the 47 seats in theSouth Australian Legislative Assemblyare marginal seats. The most marginal isDunstan,held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leaderSteven Marshall,who was also the state'sPremieruntil this election.
Victoria
[edit]Following the2022 state election,28 of the 88 seats in theVictorian Legislative Assemblyare marginal seats. The two most marginal areBassandNorthcote,both of which are held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.2% against the Liberal Party and theGreens,respectively.
Western Australia
[edit]Following the2021 state election,just five of the 59 seats in theWestern Australian Legislative Assemblyare marginal seats. The most marginal isChurchlands,held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Liberal Party.
United States
[edit]In the United States, examples of congressional districts considered marginal in recent years includeIllinois's 10th congressional district,located in the northern suburbs ofChicago,[5]Texas's 23rd congressional district,covering most of Texas' border with Mexico,[6]andNew Hampshire's 1st congressional district,which includes much of the state's eastern half, including its most populous cityManchester.[7]Within the past decade, these three districts are examples of ones that have frequently switched partisan control and seen close races.
However, political realignments andredistrictingmay cause traditionally marginal districts to become safe for one party or another. An example of the former isIndiana's 8th congressional district,which was nicknamed the "Bloody Eighth" for its history of ousting incumbents from both theDemocraticandRepublicanparties. However, as rural white voters, who are a large percentage of the district's population, have become increasingly Republican, it is now considered a safely Republican seat.[8]On the other hand,North Carolina's 11th congressional districtis an example of a seat that lost its marginal status due to redistricting. It was formerly a highly competitive seat, albeit with a slight conservative lean, that often changed partisan hands. The Democratic base in the district was the city ofAsheville,while Republicans were dominant in much of the city's suburbs, and the mountainous rural areas were evenly split between the two parties. However, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the district in 2012 to remove much of Asheville and add conservative territory from the adjacent10th district,therefore making the district much more difficult to win for three-term incumbentHeath Shuler,a conservative Democrat. Indeed, Shuler opted to retire, and RepublicanMark Meadowswon the seat easily, subsequently holding it until March 2020 when he resigned to serve asWhite House Chief of Staff.
Conversely, seats that were formerly considered safe for one party may become swing seats. For instance,Orange County, California,was traditionally a Republican stronghold, and most of its congressional seats were solidly Republican for decades. However, demographic changes, particularly Democratic strength with Hispanic and Asian voters, have eroded Republican dominance of the county;Hillary Clintonwon it in2016,becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to do so sinceFranklin D. Rooseveltin1936,while Democrats, for the first time in many years, swept all of its congressional seats in the2018 midterms.[9]
Marginal seats only require a smallswingto change hands and therefore are typically the focus of mostcampaignresources. The concentration of money and human resources in areas where they will make the most difference is known astargeting.
Strategies for securing marginal seats
[edit]The creation of policy that will benefit a particular seat, at the expense of othertaxpayers,is known aspork barreling.[10]
Political parties often face tension between the holders of marginal seats andsafe seats.Safe seats tend to be allocated far less discretionary resources—governmental as well as political—from their political party than do marginal seats.
A similar phenomenon happens inUnited States presidential elections,where theElectoral Collegesystem means that candidates must win states rather than the popular vote. Again, resources are concentrated towards theswing stateswith the smallest majorities.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^"The NDP's great pipeline divide - Macleans.ca".macleans.ca.
- ^"Marginal seats 2019: Where are the seats that could turn the election?".BBC News.2019-11-13.Retrieved2021-03-07.
- ^"Elections – Frequently Asked Questions".Australian Electoral Commission.
- ^"Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters: The Conduct of the 1998 Federal Election"(PDF).Australian Electoral Commission. 12 March 1999.
- ^Pearson, Rick (9 May 2017)."Republican Dold won't seek 4th rematch for Congress with Democrat Schneider".chicagotribune.
- ^"Town halls in Dairy Queens? Rep. Will Hurd wants Texas' only swing district to digest his message".Dallas News.October 19, 2018.
- ^Bradner, Eric (October 6, 2017)."New Hampshire Rep. Shea-Porter to retire, opening up competitive House seat".CNN.
- ^"Indiana's 'Bloody' Eighth isn't what it used to be".November 6, 2018.
- ^Nagourney, Adam; Gebeloff, Robert (December 31, 2018)."In Orange County, a Republican Fortress Turns Democratic (Published 2018)".The New York Times.
- ^"Vaile in last-ditch pork barrel".smh.au.17 November 2007.
