Niall Ferguson

For other people with similar names, seeNeil Ferguson (disambiguation).

Sir Niall Ferguson FRSE
Ferguson in 2017
Born	Niall Campbell Ferguson (1964-04-18)18 April 1964 Glasgow,Scotland
Citizenship	United Kingdom United States
Spouses	Sue Douglas ​ ​ (m.1994;div.2011)​ Ayaan Hirsi Ali ​ (m.2011)​
Children	5
Academic background
Education	Magdalen College, Oxford (MA,DPhil) University of Hamburg
Thesis	Business and Politics in the German Inflation(1989)
Doctoral advisor	Norman Stone
Influences	A. J. P. Taylor
Academic work
Discipline	International history Economic history
Institutions	University of Cambridge University of Oxford New York University Harvard University London School of Economics Hoover Institution,Stanford University
Doctoral students	Tyler Goodspeed
Notable works	Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World(2003) Civilisation: the West and the Rest(2011)
Website	www.niallferguson

Sir Niall Campbell FergusonFRSE(/ˈniːl/;born 18 April 1964)is a Scottish–American historian who is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at theHoover Institutionand a senior fellow at theBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsatHarvard University.Previously, he was a professor atHarvard University,theLondon School of Economics,New York University,a visiting professor at theNew College of the Humanities,and a senior research fellow atJesus College, Oxford.He was avisiting lecturerat theLondon School of Economicsfor the 2023/24 academic year and atTsinghua University, Chinain 2019–20.He is a co-founder of theUniversity of Austin, Texas.

Ferguson writes and lectures oninternational history,economic history,financial history and the history of theBritish EmpireandAmerican imperialism.He holds positive views concerning theBritish Empire.In 2004, he was one ofTimemagazine's 100 most influential people in the world.Ferguson has written and presented numerous television documentary series, includingThe Ascent of Money,which won anInternational Emmy Award for Best Documentaryin 2009.In 2024 he wasknightedbyKing Charles IIIfor services to literature.

Ferguson has been a contributing editor forBloomberg Televisionand a columnist forNewsweek.He began writing a semi-monthlycolumnforBloomberg Opinionin June 2020 and has also been a regular columnist atThe Spectatorand theDaily Mail.In 2021 he became a joint-founder of the newUniversity of Austin.Since June 2024 he is a bi-weekly columnist atThe Free Press.Ferguson has also contributed articles to many journals includingForeign AffairsandForeign Policy.He has been described as a conservative and called himself a supporter ofRonald ReaganandMargaret Thatcher.

Early life and education

Ferguson was born inGlasgow,Scotland, on 18 April 1964 to James Campbell Ferguson, a doctor, and Molly Archibald Hamilton, a physics teacher.Ferguson grew up in theIbroxarea of Glasgow in a home close to theIbrox Parkfootball stadium.He attendedThe Glasgow Academy.He was brought up as—and remains (as of the last version of this article) —anatheist,though he has encouraged his children to study religion and attends church occasionally.

In a 2023 interview,however, Ferguson declares: "I'm a lapsed atheist... I go to church every Sunday, precisely because having been brought up as an atheist, I came to realise in my career as a historian that not only is atheism a disastrous basis for a society... but also because I don't think it can be a basis for individual ethical decision making".

Ferguson cites his father as instilling in him a strong sense of self-discipline and of the moral value of work, while his mother encouraged his creative side.His maternal grandfather, a journalist, encouraged him to write.He has described his parents as "both very much products of theScottish Enlightenment."Ferguson ascribes his decision to read history at university instead of English literature to two main factors:Leo Tolstoy's reflections on history at the end ofWar and Peace(which he read at the age of fifteen),and his admiration of historianA. J. P. Taylor.

Oxford

Ferguson received ademyship(highest scholarship) fromMagdalen College, Oxford.Whilst a student there, he wrote a 90-minute student filmThe Labours of Hercules Sprote,played double bass in a jazz band "Night in Tunisia", edited the student magazineTributary,and befriendedAndrew Sullivan,who shared his interest inright-wing politicsandpunk music.He had become aThatcheriteby 1982. He graduated with afirst-class honoursdegree inhistoryin 1985.

Ferguson studied as a Hanseatic Scholar at theUniversity of Hamburgfrom 1986 until 1988. He received hisDoctor of Philosophydegree from theUniversity of Oxfordin 1989. His dissertation was titled "Business and Politics in the German Inflation: Hamburg 1914–1924".

Career

Academic career

In 1989, Ferguson worked as a research fellow atChrist's College, Cambridge.From 1990 to 1992 he was an official fellow and lecturer atPeterhouse, Cambridge.He then became a fellow and tutor in modern history atJesus College, Oxford,where in 2000 he was named a professor of political and financial history. In 2002 Ferguson became the John Herzog Professor in Financial History atNew York University Stern School of Business,and in 2004 he became the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History atHarvard Universityand William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration atHarvard Business School.From 2010 to 2011, Ferguson held the Philippe Roman Chair in history and international affairs at theLondon School of Economics.In 2016 Ferguson left Harvardto become a senior fellow at theHoover Institution,where he had been an adjunct fellow since 2005. In 2021 he joinedBari Weiss,the Shakespeare scholar Pano Kanelos and the entrepreneur Joe Lonsdale to found theUniversity of Austin in Texas.At the time, Ferguson said was starting the college because "higher ed is broken."The liberal arts college was approved to grant degrees in late 2023.

Ferguson has received honorary degrees from theUniversity of Buckingham,Macquarie University(Australia) andUniversidad Adolfo Ibáñez(Chile). In May 2010,Michael Gove,education secretary,asked Ferguson to advise on the development of a new history syllabus, to be entitled "history as a connected narrative", for schools in England and Wales.In June 2011, he joined other academics to set up theNew College of the Humanities,a private college in London.

In the same year emails were released to the public and university administrators which documented Ferguson's attempts to discredit a progressive activist student atStanford Universitywho had been critical of Ferguson's choices of speakers invited to the Cardinal Conversations free speech initiative.He teamed with aRepublicanstudent group to find information that might discredit the student. Ferguson resigned from leadership of the program once university administrators became aware of his actions.

Ferguson responded in his columnsaying, "Re-reading my emails now, I am struck by their juvenile, jocular tone." A famous victory, "I wrote the morning after the Murray event. 'Now we turn to the more subtle game of grinding them down on the committee. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.' Then I added: 'Some opposition research on Mr O might also be worthwhile'—a reference to the leader of the protests. None of this happened. The meetings of the student committee were repeatedly postponed. No one ever did any digging on" Mr O ". The spring vacation arrived. The only thing that came of the emails was that their circulation led to my stepping down."

Business career

In 2000 Ferguson was a founding director of Boxmind,an Oxford-based educational technology company.

In 2006 he set up Chimerica Media Ltd.,a London-based television production company.

In 2007 Ferguson was appointed as an investment management consultant byGLG Partners,to advise on geopolitical risk as well as current structural issues in economic behaviour relating to investment decisions.GLG is a UK-basedhedge fundmanagement firm headed byNoam Gottesman.Ferguson was also an adviser to Morgan Stanley, the investment bank.

In 2011 he set up Greenmantle LLC, an advisory business specializing in macroeconomics and geopolitics.He also serves as a non-executive director on the board of Affiliated Managers Group.

Political involvement

Ferguson was an advisor toJohn McCain'sU.S. presidential campaign in 2008,supportedMitt Romneyin his2012 campaign,and was a vocal critic ofBarack Obama.

Non-profit organisation

Ferguson is a trustee of the New-York Historical Society and the London-based Centre for Policy Studies.

Career as a commentator, documentarian and public intellectual

Ferguson addresses theAlliance for Responsible Citizenship,London, 2023

Ferguson has written regularly for British newspapers and magazines since the mid 1980s. At that time, he was lead writer forThe Daily Telegraph,and a regular book reviewer forThe Daily Mail.In the summer of 1989, while travelling inBerlin,he wrote an article for a British newspaper with the provisional headline "TheBerlin Wallis Crumbling ", but it was not published.In the early 2000s he wrote a weekly column forThe Sunday TelegraphandLos Angeles Times,leaving in 2007 to become acontributing editorto theFinancial Times.Between 2008 and 2012 he wrote regularly forNewsweek.Since 2015 he has written a weekly column forThe Sunday TimesandThe Boston Globe,which also appears in numerous papers around the world.

Ferguson's television seriesThe Ascent of Moneywon the 2009 International Emmy award for Best Documentary.In 2011, his film company Chimerica Media released its first feature-length documentary,Kissinger,which won the New York Film Festival's prize for Best Documentary.

In an interview withPeter Robinson,Ferguson recounted the "humiliation" his wife, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, endured at being disinvited from giving the commencement address atBrandeis Universityin 2014.Observing this to being a recurring phenomena as "a curious illiberal turn" for universities— including Harvard where he was teaching—made him a critic ofcancel culture.Prospecthas since described him as one of the most prominent supporters of anti cancel-culture.Ferguson's main target here seems to be the academe, saying, "Wokeism has gone from being a fringe fashion to be the dominant ideology of the universities."

Television documentaries

• Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World(2003)
• American Colossus(2004)
• The War of the World(2006)
• The Ascent of Money(2008)
• Civilization: Is the West History?(2011)
• Kissinger(2011)
• China: Triumph and Turmoil(2012)
• The Pity of War(2014)
• Networld(2020)

BBC Reith Lectures

Niall Ferguson recording the third of his 2012BBC Reith LectureatGresham College.

In May 2012 theBBCannounced Niall Ferguson was to present its annualReith Lectures.These four lectures, titledThe Rule of Law and its Enemies,examine the role man-made institutions have played in the economic and political spheres.

In the first lecture, held at theLondon School of Economics,titledThe Human Hive,Ferguson argues for greater openness from governments, saying they should publish accounts which clearly state all assets and liabilities. Governments, he said, should also follow the lead of business and adopt theGenerally Accepted Accounting Principlesand, above all, generational accounts should be prepared on a regular basis to make absolutely clear the inter-generational implications of currentfiscal policy.In the lecture, Ferguson says young voters should be more supportive ofgovernment austerity measuresif they do not wish to pay further down the line for the profligacy of thebaby boomergeneration.

In the second lecture,The Darwinian Economy,Ferguson reflects on the causes of theglobal financial crisis,and allegedly erroneous conclusions that many people have drawn from it about the role ofregulation,and asks whether regulation is in fact "the disease of which it purports to be the cure".

The Landscape of Lawwas the third lecture, delivered atGresham College.It examines therule of lawin comparative terms, asking how far thecommon law's claims to superiority over other systems are credible, and whether we are living through a time of "creeping legal degeneration" in theEnglish-speaking world.

The fourth and final lecture,Civil and Uncivil Societies,focuses on institutions (outside the political, economic and legal realms) designed to preserve and transmit particular knowledge and values. Ferguson asks whether the modern state is quietly killingcivil societyin the Western world, and what non-Western societies can do to build a vibrant civil society.

The first lecture was broadcast onBBC Radio 4and theBBC World Serviceon Tuesday, 19 June 2012.The series is available as a BBC podcast.

Books

The Cash Nexus

In his 2001 book,The Cash Nexus,which he wrote following a year as Houblon-Norman Fellow at theBank of England,Ferguson argues that the popular saying, "money makes the world go 'round", is wrong; instead he presented a case for human actions in history motivated by far more than just economic concerns.

Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World

In his 2003 book,Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World,Ferguson conducts a provocative reinterpretation of theBritish Empire,casting it as one of the world's great modernising forces. The Empire produced durable changes andglobalisationwithsteampower,telegraphs,andengineers.

Bernard Porter,famous for expressing his views during thePorter–MacKenzie debateon the British Empire, attackedEmpireinThe London Review of Booksas a "panegyric to British colonialism".Ferguson, in response to this, drew Porter's attention to the conclusion of the book, where he writes: "No one would claim that the record of the British Empire was unblemished. On the contrary, I have tried to show how often it failed to live up to its own ideal of individual liberty, particularly in the early era of enslavement, transportation and the 'ethnic cleansing' ofindigenous peoples."Ferguson argues however that the British Empire was preferable toGermanandJapaneserule at the time:

The 19th-century empire undeniably pioneered free trade, free capital movements and, with theabolition of slavery,free labour. It invested immense sums in developing a global network of modern communications. It spread and enforced the rule of law over vast areas. Though it fought manysmall wars,the empire maintained aglobal peaceunmatched before or since. In the 20th century too the empire more than justified its own existence. For the alternatives to British rule represented by theGermanandJapaneseempires were clearly—and they admitted it themselves—far worse. And without its empire, it is inconceivable that Britain could have withstood them.

The book was the subject for a documentary series on British television networkChannel 4.

Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire

In his 2005 book,Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire,Ferguson proposes that the United States aspires to globalize free markets, the rule of law, and representative government, but shies away from the long-term commitments of manpower and money that are indispensable, in taking a more active role in resolving conflict arising from thefailure of states.The U.S. is an empire in denial, not acknowledging the scale of global responsibilities.The American writerMichael Lind,responding to Ferguson's advocation of an enlargedAmerican militarythroughconscription,accused Ferguson of engaging in apocalyptic alarmism about the possibility of a world without the United States as the dominant power and of a casual disregard for the value of human life.

War of the World

"War of the World" redirects here. For the science fiction novel, seeThe War of the Worlds.For other, seeWorld at War,World War,andThe War of the Worlds (disambiguation).

InWar of the World,published in 2006, Ferguson argued that a combination ofeconomic volatility,decaying empires, psychopathic dictators, racially/ethnically motivated andinstitutionalised violenceresulted in the wars and genocides of what he calls "History's Age of Hatred".The New York Times Book ReviewnamedWar of the Worldone of the 100 Notable Books of the Year in 2006, while theInternational Herald Tribunecalled it "one of the most intriguing attempts by an historian to explainman's inhumanity to man".

Ferguson addresses the paradox that, though the 20th century was "so bloody", it was also "a time of unparalleled [economic] progress". As with his earlier workEmpire,War of the Worldwas accompanied by a Channel 4 television series presented by Ferguson.

The Ascent of Money

Published in 2008,The Ascent of Moneyexamines thehistory of money,credit, and banking. In it, Ferguson predicts a financial crisis as a result of theworld economyand in particular theUnited Statesusing too much credit. He cites theChina–United States dynamicwhich he refers to asChimericawhere an Asian "savings glut"helped create thesubprime mortgage crisiswith an influx of easy money.

Civilization

Published in 2011,Civilization: The West and the Restexamines what Ferguson calls the most "interesting question" of our day: "Why,beginning around 1500,did a few small polities on the western end of the Eurasian landmass come to dominate the rest of the world? "

TheEconomistin a review wrote:

In 1500 Europe's future imperial powers controlled 10% of the world's territories and generated just over 40% of its wealth. By 1913, at the height of empire, the West controlled almost 60% of the territories, which together generated almost 80% of the wealth. This stunning fact is lost, he regrets, on a generation that has supplanted history's sweep with a feeble-minded relativism that holds "all civilisations as somehow equal".

Ferguson attributes this divergence to the West's development of six "killer apps",which he finds were largely missing elsewhere in the world in 1500 –"competition,thescientific method,therule of law,modern medicine,consumerismand thework ethic".

Ferguson compared and contrasted how the West's "killer apps" allowed the West to triumph over "the Rest" citing examples.Ferguson argued the rowdy and savage competition between European merchants created far more wealth than did the static and ordered society ofQing China.Tolerance extended to thinkers like SirIsaac NewtoninStuart Englandhad no counterpart in theOttoman Empire,whereTakiyuddin's state built observatory was eventually demolished due to political conflict. This ensured that Western civilization was capable of making scientific advances that Ottoman civilization never could. Respect forprivate propertywas far stronger inBritish Americathan it ever was inSpanish America,which led to theUnited States and Canadabecoming prosperous societies whileLatin Americawas and remains mired in poverty.

Ferguson also argued that the modern West had lost its edge and the future belongs to the nations of Asia, especiallyChina,which has adopted the West's "killer apps".Ferguson argues that in the coming years, we will see a steady decline of the West, while China and the rest of the Asian nations will be the rising powers.

A related documentaryCivilization: Is the West History?was broadcast as a six-part series on Channel 4 in March and April 2011.

Kissinger: 1923–1968: The Idealist

Kissinger The Idealist,Volume I, published in September 2015, is the first part of a planned two-part biography ofHenry Kissingerbased on his private papers. The book starts with a quote from a letter which Kissinger wrote in 1972. The book examines Kissinger's life from being a refugee and fleeingNazi Germanyin 1938, to serving in theUS armyas a "free man" inWorld War II,to studying atHarvard.The book explores the history of Kissinger joining theKennedy administrationand later becoming critical ofits foreign policy,to supportingNelson Rockefelleron three failed presidential bids, to joining theNixonadministration. The book includes Kissinger's early evaluation of theVietnam Warand his efforts to negotiate with theNorth VietnameseinParis.

Historians and political scientists gave the book mixed reviews.The Economistwrote in a review aboutThe Idealist:"Mr Ferguson, a British historian also at Harvard, has in the past sometimes produced work that is rushed and uneven. Not here. Like Mr Kissinger or loathe him, this is a work of engrossing scholarship."In a negative review ofThe Idealist,the American journalist Michael O'Donnell questioned Ferguson's interpretation of Kissinger's actions leading up toNixon's election as President.

Andrew Roberts praised the book inThe New York Times,concluding: "Niall Ferguson already has many important, scholarly and controversial books to his credit. But if the second volume of" Kissinger "is anywhere near as comprehensive, well written and riveting as the first, this will be his masterpiece."

The Square and the Tower

In 2018'sThe Square and the Tower,Ferguson proposed a modified version ofgroup selectionthat history can be explained by the evolution of human networks. He wrote, "Man, with his unrivaled neural network, was borntonetwork. "The title refers to a transition from hierarchical, "tower" networks to flatter, "square" network connections between individuals.John Grayin a review of the book was not convinced. He wrote, "He offers a mix of metaphor and what purports to be a new science."

"Niall Ferguson has again written a brilliant book," wrote Deirdre McCloskey inThe Wall Street Journal,"this time in defence of traditional top-down principles of governing the wild market and the wilder international order.The Square and the Towerraises the question of just how much the unruly world should be governed – and by whom. Not everyone will agree, but everyone will be charmed and educated.... "The Square and the Tower" is always readable, intelligent, original. You can swallow a chapter a night before sleep and your dreams will overflow with scenes of Stendhal's "The Red and the Black," Napoleon, Kissinger. In 400 pages you will have restocked your mind. Do it. "

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe

In this book, Ferguson offers a global history of disaster. Damon Linker ofTheNew York Timesargues that the book is "often insightful, productively provocative and downright brilliant" and suggests that Ferguson displays "an impressive command of the latest research in a large number of specialized fields, among themmedical history,epidemiology,probability theory,cliodynamicsandnetwork theory."However Linker also criticises the book's "perple xing lacunae."

In a review forThe Times,David Aaronovitchdescribed Ferguson's theory as "nebulous."

Opinions, views and research

Ferguson has been referred to as aconservativehistorian by some commentators and fellow historians.Ferguson himself stated in a 2018 interview on theRubin Reportthat his views align toclassical liberalismand has referred to himself as a "classicScottish enlightenmentliberal "on other occasions.

Some of his research and conclusions have been criticised by commentators on theleftof the political spectrum.In a 2011 interview, Ferguson said elements of the left, "love being provoked by me! Honestly, it makes them feel so much better about their lives to think that I'm a reactionary; it's a substitute for thought." Imperialist scumbag "and all that. Oh dear, we're back in a 1980s student union debate."

Ferguson endorsedKemi Badenoch's campaign during theJuly 2022 Conservative Party leadership election.

World War I

In 1998, Ferguson publishedThe Pity of War: Explaining World War One,which with the help ofresearch assistantshe was able to write in just five months.This is an analytic account of what Ferguson considered to be the ten great myths of theGreat War.The book generated much controversy, particularly Ferguson's suggestion that it might have proved more beneficial for Europe if Britain had stayed out of theFirst World Warin 1914, thereby allowing Germany to win.

Ferguson has argued that the British decision to intervene was what stopped a German victory in 1914–15. Furthermore, Ferguson expressed disagreement with theSonderweginterpretation of German history championed by some German historians such asFritz Fischer,Hans-Ulrich Wehler,Hans MommsenandWolfgang Mommsen,who argued that theGerman Empiredeliberately started an aggressive war in 1914. Likewise, Ferguson has often attacked the work of the German historianMichael Stürmer,who argued that it was Germany's geographical situation inCentral Europethat determined the course of German history.

On the contrary, Ferguson maintained that Germany waged apreventive warin 1914, a war largely forced on the Germans by reckless and irresponsible British diplomacy. In particular, Ferguson accused theBritish Foreign SecretarySir Edward Greyof maintaining an ambiguous attitude to the question of whether Britain would enter the war or not, and thus confusing Berlin over just what was the British attitude towards the question of intervention in the war.

Ferguson accused London of unnecessarily allowing a regional war in Europe to escalate into a world war. Moreover, Ferguson denied that the origins ofNational Socialismcould be traced back to Imperial Germany; instead Ferguson asserted theorigins of Nazismcould only be traced back to the First World War and its aftermath.

Ferguson attacked a number of ideas that he called "myths" in the book. They are listed here (with his counter-arguments in parentheses):

• That Germany was a highlymilitaristcountry before 1914 (Ferguson claims Germany was Europe's most anti-militarist country).
• That naval challenges mounted by Germany drove Britain intoinformal alliances with FranceandRussiabefore 1914 (Ferguson claims the British chose alliances with France and Russia as a form of appeasement due to the strength of those nations, and an Anglo-German alliance failed to materialize due to German weakness).
• ThatBritish foreign policywas driven by legitimate fears of Germany (Ferguson claims Germany posed no threat to Britain before 1914, and that all British fears of Germany were due to irrationalanti-German prejudices).
• That the pre-1914 arms race was consuming ever larger portions ofnational budgetsat an unsustainable rate (Ferguson claims that the only limitations on moremilitary spendingbefore 1914 were political, not economic).
• That World War I was, asFritz Fischerclaimed, a war of aggression on the part of Germany that necessitated British involvement to stop Germany from conquering Europe (Ferguson claims that if Germany had been victorious, something like the European Union would have been created in 1914, and that it would have been for the best if Britain had chosen to opt out of war in 1914).
• That most people were happy with the outbreak of war in 1914 (Ferguson claims that most Europeans were saddened by the coming of war).
• Thatpropagandawas successful in making men wish to fight (Ferguson argues the opposite).
• That theAlliesmade the best use of their economic resources (Ferguson argues that the Allies "squandered" their economic resources).
• That theBritishand theFrenchhad the better armies (Ferguson claims theGerman Armywas superior).
• That the Allies were more efficient at killing Germans (Ferguson argues that the Germans were more efficient at killing the Allies).
• That most soldiers hated fighting in the war (Ferguson argues most soldiers fought more or less willingly).
• That the British treated German prisoners of war well (Ferguson argues the British routinely killed German POWs).
• That Germany was faced withreparationsafter 1921 that could not be paid except at ruinous economic cost (Ferguson argues that Germany could easily have paid reparations had there been the political will).

Another controversial aspect ofThe Pity of Waris Ferguson's use ofcounterfactual historyalso known as "speculative" or "hypothetical" history. In the book, Ferguson presents a hypothetical version of Europe being, under Imperial German domination, a peaceful, prosperous, democratic continent, without ideologies likecommunismorItalian fascism.In Ferguson's view, had Germany won World War I, then the lives of millions would have been saved, something like theEuropean Unionwould have been founded in 1914, and Britain would have remained an empire as well as the world's dominant financial power.

The French historians Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau and Annette Becker were dubious about much of Ferguson's methodology and conclusions inThe Pity of War,but praised him for the chapter dealing with the executions of POWs, arguing that Ferguson had exposed a dark side of the war that until then had been ignored.The American writerMichael Lindwrote aboutThe Pity of War:

Like the historianJohn Charmley,who expressed the same wish in the case of World War II, Ferguson belongs to the fringe element of British conservatism that regrets the absence of a German-British deal in the first half of the 20th century that would have marginalized the United States and might have allowed the British Empire to survive to this day. According to Ferguson, Britain should have stayed out of World War I and allowed Imperial Germany to smash France and Russia and create a continental empire from theAtlanticto theMiddle East.The joke is on Ferguson'sAmerican conservativeadmirers, inasmuch as he laments the defeat of the Kaiser's Germany because it accelerated the replacement of the British Empire by the United States of America and the eclipse of theCity of LondonbyWall Street.

The German-born American historianGerhard Weinbergin a review ofThe Pity of Warstrongly criticized Ferguson for advancing the thesis that it was idiotic for Britain to have fought a Germany that allegedly posed no danger.Weinberg accused Ferguson of completely ignoring the chief foreign policy aim ofWilhelm IIfrom 1897 onwards, namelyWeltpolitik( "World Politics" ) and argued it was absurd for Ferguson to claim that allowing Germany to defeat France and Russia would have posed no danger to Britain.Weinberg wrote that Ferguson was wrong to claim that Germany's interests were limited only to Europe, and maintained that if theReichhad defeated France in 1914, then Germany would have taken over theFrench colonies in Asia and Africawhich would have definitely affected thebalance of powerall over the world, not just in Europe.

Finally, Weinberg attacked Ferguson for claiming that theTirpitz Planwas not a danger to Britain and that Britain had no reason to fear Germany's naval ambitions, sarcastically asking if that was really the case, then why did the British redeploy so much of their fleet from around the world to theNorth Seaand spend so much money building warships in theAnglo-German naval arms race?Weinberg accused Ferguson of distorting both German and British history and ignoring any evidence that did not fit with his thesis that Britain should never have fought Germany, stating thatThe Pity of Warwas interesting as a historical provocation, but was not persuasive as history.

Rothschilds

Ferguson wrote two volumes about the prominentRothschild family:The House of Rothschild: Volume 1: Money's Prophets: 1798–1848andThe House of Rothschild: Volume 2: The World's Banker: 1849–1999.These books were the result of original archival research.The books won the Wadsworth Prize for Business History and were also short-listed for theJewish Quarterly-Wingate Literary Awardand theAmerican National Jewish Book Award.

The books were widely acclaimed by historians,although they did receive some criticism.John Lewis Gaddis,aCold War–era historian, praised Ferguson's "unrivaled range, productivity and visibility", while criticising the book as unpersuasive and containing contradictory claims.Marxist historianEric Hobsbawmhad praised Ferguson as an excellent historian, but criticised him as a "nostalgist for empire".In a mixed review of a later book by Ferguson,The War of the World: History's Age of Hatred,a reviewer forThe Economistdescribed how many regard Ferguson's two books on the Rothschilds "as one of the finest studies of its kind".Jeremy Wormell wrote that whileThe World's Banker: A History of the House of Rothschildhad its virtues, it contained "many errors" which meant it was "unsafe to use it as a source for the debt markets".

Writing inThe New York Review of Books,Robert Skidelsky praised Ferguson:"Taken together, Ferguson's two volumes are a stupendous achievement, a triumph of historical research and imagination. No serious historian can write about the connection between the politics, diplomacy, and economics of the nineteenth century in the same way again. And, as any good work of history should do, it constantly prompts us to ask questions about our own age, when once again we have embarked on the grand experiment of a world economy without a world government."

Counterfactual history

Ferguson sometimes championscounterfactual history,also known as "speculative" or "hypothetical" history, and edited a collection of essays, titledVirtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals(1997), exploring the subject. Ferguson likes to imagine alternative outcomes as a way of stressing the contingent aspects of history. For Ferguson, great forces don't make history; individuals do, and nothing is predetermined. Thus, for Ferguson, there are no paths in history that will determine how things will work out. The world is neither progressing nor regressing; only the actions of individuals determine whether we will live in a better or worse world. His championing of the method has been controversial within the field.In a 2011 review of Ferguson's bookCivilization: The West and the Rest,Noel Malcolm(senior research fellow in history atAll Souls CollegeatOxford University) stated that: "Students may find this an intriguing introduction to a wide range of human history; but they will get an odd idea of how historical argument is to be conducted, if they learn it from this book."

Henry Kissinger

In 2003, formerU.S. Secretary of StateHenry Kissingerprovided Ferguson with access to hisWhite Housediaries, letters, and archives for what Ferguson calls a "warts-and-all biography" of Kissinger.In 2015, he published the first volume in a two-part biography titledKissinger: 1923–1968: The Idealistfrom Penguin Press.

The thesis of this first volume was that Kissinger was greatly influenced in his academic and political development by the philosopherImmanuel Kant,and especially by an interpretation of Kant that he learned from a mentor atHarvard University,William Yandell Elliott.

British Empire

Ferguson has defended theBritish Empire,stating, "I think it's hard to make the case, which implicitly the left makes, that somehow the world would have been better off if the Europeans had stayed home."Ferguson is critical of what he calls the "self-flagellation" that he says characterises modern European thought.

The moral simplification urge is an extraordinarily powerful one, especially in this country, where imperial guilt can lead to self-flagellation, "he told a reporter." And it leads to very simplistic judgments. The rulers ofwestern Africaprior to the European empires were not running some kind of scout camp. They were engaged in theslave trade.They showed zero sign of developing the country's economic resources. DidSenegalultimately benefit fromFrench rule?Yes, it's clear. And the counterfactual idea that somehow the indigenous rulers would have been more successful ineconomic developmentdoesn't have any credibility at all.

Critical views of Ferguson and empire

Historians and commentators have considered his views on this issue and expressed their critical evaluation in various terms, from "audacious" yet "wrong","informative","ambitious" and "troubling", to "false and dangerous" apologia.Richard Drayton,Rhodes Professor of Imperial HistoryatKing's College London,has stated that it was correct ofSeumas Milneto associate "Ferguson with an attempt to" rehabilitate empire "in the service of contemporary great power interests".In November 2011Pankaj MishrareviewedCivilisation: The West and the Restunfavourably in theLondon Review of Books.Ferguson demanded an apology and threatened to sue Mishra on charges oflibeldue to allegations of racism.

Jon Wilson, a professor of the Department of History atKing's College London,is the author ofIndia Conquered,a 2016 book intended to rebut Ferguson's arguments inEmpire: How Britain Made the Modern World,who catalogues the negative elements of theBritish Raj,and describes theEmpireTV program (2003) as "false and dangerous".Wilson agrees with Ferguson's point that the British innovations brought to India,civil services,education,andrailways,had beneficialside effects,but faults them for being done in a spirit ofself-interestrather thanaltruism.

About Ferguson's claim that Britain "made the modern world" by spreadingdemocracy,free trade,capitalism,therule of law,Protestantismand theEnglish language,Wilson charged that Ferguson never explained precisely how this was done,arguing that the reason was the lack of interest in the history of the people ruled by the British on Ferguson's part, who therefore could not perceive that the interaction between the colonisers and the colonised in places like India, where the population embraced aspects ofBritish cultureand rule that were appealing to them while rejecting others that were unappealing.

Wilson argues that this interaction between the rulers and the ruled is more complex, and contradicts Ferguson's one-sided picture of the British "transforming" India that portrays the British as active and the Indians as passive.Wilson charged that Ferguson failed to look at the empire via non-British eyes because to do so would be to challenge his claim that Britain "made the modern world" by imposing its values on "the Other", and that the history of the empire was far more complicated than the simplistic version that Ferguson is trying to present.

Islam and "Eurabia"

Ferguson has endorsed the work ofBat Ye'orand herIslamophobicEurabiaconspiracy theory,providing a cover comment for her 2005Eurabiabook, in which he stated that "no writer has done more than Bat Ye'or to draw attention to the menacing character of Islamic extremism. Future historians will one day regard her coinage of the term 'Eurabia' as prophetic."

Matthew Carr wrote inRace & Classthat "Niall Ferguson, the conservative English [sic] historian and enthusiastic advocate of a new American empire, has also embraced the Eurabian idea in a widely reproduced article entitled 'Eurabia?',in which he laments the "de-Christianization of Europe" and the secularism of the continent that leaves it "weak in the face of fanaticism". "Carr adds that" Ferguson sees the recent establishment of a department ofIslamic studiesin his (Oxford college) as another symptom of 'the creepingIslamicizationof a decadentChristendom', "and in a 2004 lecture at theAmerican Enterprise Instituteentitled 'The End of Europe?',

Ferguson struck a similarlySpengleriannote, conjuring the term "impire" to depict a process in which a 'political entity, instead of expanding outwards towards its periphery, exporting power, implodes—when the energies come from outside into that entity'. In Ferguson's opinion, this process was already under way in a decadent 'post-Christian' Europe that was drifting inexorably towards the dark denouement of a vanquished civilisation and the fatal embrace of Islam.

In 2015, Ferguson deplored theParis attackscommitted byIslamic Stateterrorists, but stated he was not going to "stand" with the French as he argued that France was a lost cause, a declining state faced with an unstoppable Islamic wave that would sweep away everything that tried to oppose it.Ferguson compared the modernEuropean Unionto theWestern Roman Empire,describing modern Europe as not that different from the world depicted byEdward Gibbonin his bookThe Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.Ferguson wrote that:

Uncannily similar processes are destroying the European Union today... Let us be clear about what is happening. Like the Roman Empire in the early fifth century, Europe has allowed its defenses to crumble. As its wealth has grown, so its military prowess has shrunk, along with its self-belief. It has grown decadent in its shopping malls and sports stadiums. At the same time, it has opened its gates to outsiders who have coveted its wealth without renouncing their ancestral faith.

Ferguson wrote themass influx of refugeesinto Europe from Syria was a modern version of theVölkerwanderungwhen theHunsburst out of Asia and invaded Europe, causing millions of theGermanic peoplesto flee into the presumed safety of theRoman Empire,smashing their way in as the Romans attempted unsuccessfully to stop the Germans from entering the empire.Ferguson writes that Gibbon was wrong to claim the Roman Empire collapsed slowly and argues that the view among a growing number of modern scholars is that thecollapse of the Roman empirewas swift and violent; unforeseeable by Romans of the day, just as the collapse of modern European civilization would likewise be for modern Europeans. In 2017, Ferguson opined that the West had insufficiently heeded the rise of militant Islam and its global consequences in the same way it failed to predict that the rise ofLeninwould lead to the further spread of communism and conflict around the world:

Ask yourself how effectively we in the West have responded to the rise of militant Islam since theIranian Revolutionunleashed itsShi'itevariant and since9/11revealed the even more aggressive character ofSunniIslamism.I fear we have done no better than our grandfathers did.

Foreign intervention—the millions of dollars that have found their way from theGulfto radical mosques and Islamic centres in the West.

Incompetent liberals—the proponents ofmulticulturalismwho brand any opponent ofjihadan "Islamophobe".Clueless bankers—the sort who fall over themselves to offer" sharia-compliant "loans and bonds. Fellow travellers—the leftists who line up with theMuslim Brotherhoodto castigate Israel at every opportunity. And the faint-hearted—those who were so quick topull out of Iraqin 2009 that they allowed the rump ofal-Qaedato morph intoIsis.

A century ago it was the West's great blunder to think it would not matter ifLenin and his confederates took over the Russian Empire,despite their stated intention to plotworld revolutionand overthrow both democracy and capitalism. Incredible as it may seem, I believe we are capable of repeating that catastrophic error. I fear that, one day, we shall wake with a start to discover that the Islamists have repeated theBolshevikachievement, which was to acquire the resources and capability to threaten our existence.

During a 2018 debate, Ferguson asserted that he is notanti-immigrationor opposed to Muslims, but felt that sections of Europe's political and intellectual classes had failed to predict the cultural and political consequences of large scale immigration. He stated that Islam differs fromJudaismandChristianitythrough being "designed differently" as a political ideology that does not recognize the separation of mosque with the secular and temporal, and that the Muslim world has mostly followed an opposite trend toWestern societyby becoming less secularized and more literal in interpretingholy scripture.

He concluded that if Europe kept pursuing large scale migration from pious Muslim societies combined with poor structures of economic andcultural integration,especially in an era when existing migrant communities are either unassimilated or loosely integrated into the host society, it is "highly likely" that networks of fundamentalistdawahwill grow in whichIslamic extremistsdraw in the culturally and economically unassimilated Muslims of immigrant backgrounds. Ferguson has pointed out that even when living in Western nations, both he and his wifeAyaan Hirsi Alihave to live with permanent security measures as a result of her public critiques of Islam and status as a former Muslim.

Iraq War

Ferguson supported the 2003Iraq War,and he is on record as being not necessarily opposed to future western incursions around the world.

It's all very well for us to sit here in the West with our high incomes and cushy lives, and say it's immoral to violate thesovereigntyof another state. But if the effect of that is to bring people in that country economic and political freedom, to raise their standard of living, to increase their life expectancy, then don't rule it out.

Donald Trump

Ferguson was initially skeptical ofDonald Trump's bid for the2016 United States presidential election.During theRepublican Party primaries,Ferguson was quoted in early 2016: "If you bother to read some of the serious analysis of Trump's support, you realize that it's a very fragile thing and highly unlikely to deliver what he needs in the crucial first phase of the primaries... By the time we get to March–April, it's all over. I think there's going to be a wonderful catharsis, I'm really looking forward to it: Trump's humiliation. Bring it on."Trump eventually won the nomination.

Three weeks before the2016 United States presidential election,after theAccess Hollywood tape scandal,Ferguson stated in an interview that it "was over for Donald Trump"; that "Trump had flamed out in all threePresidential debates";that," I don't think there can be any last minute surprise to rescue him [Trump] "; that there was no hope of Donald Trump winning Independent voters and that Trump was" gone as a candidate ", adding that" it seems to me clear that she [Hillary Clinton] is going to be the first femalePresident of the United States.The only question is how bad does his [Trump's] flaming out affect candidates for the Senate, candidates for the House, further down on the ballot. "

AfterBrexit,Ferguson stated that Trump could win via theElectoral Collegeif certain demographics turned out to vote in keyswing states.Trump was elected president despite losing the popular vote, and theRepublican Partyretained control of both the Senate and House of Representatives.

In 2018, Ferguson argued that a Hillary Clinton presidency would have been more disruptive to America, and that Clinton would have been "immediately"impeachedas Trump supporters would have likely believed that the election was rigged. Ferguson stated that he regarded himself "in the middle ground" in a generally polarized public and media opinion onTrump's presidency.He elaborated that while he found Trump's personality "pretty hard to take", he cited several positive achievements undertaken by his administration, including America's stronger economic performance and noted that he foundTrump's foreign policy stancesonChina,North Koreaand theMiddle Eastan improvement over that of the Obama administration. He further opined that the media was more focused on Trump's behaviour on social media than the "competent job" being done by members of his administration.

In 2019, he wrote an op-ed inThe New York Timesarguing that theChina–United States trade warwas the beginning of aSecond Cold Warbetween the United States and China, and that despite the risks of the showdown the introduction of an external enemy similar to theSoviet Unioncould prove beneficial by reducingpolitical polarization in the United States.

During the2020 United States Presidential election,Ferguson noted that contrary to arguments from Trump's opponents that he only appealed to older White men, statistics showed his support among Black and Latino voters had risen. He opined that Biden was likely to win the presidency, but that the Democratic Party would not see a "blue wave" of support as it had tried to turn the election into "a referendum on Trump's handling ofCOVID-19"when there" hasn't been anything exceptionally bad about American performance "and the Democrats had misjudged the mood of voters concerned about law and order following theBlack Lives Matterprotests.After the election was concluded, Ferguson stated that both Trump and the "far-left of the Democratic Party"had lost.

Ferguson condemned the2021 U.S Capitol attackcommitted by supporters of Trump, arguing onTwitterthat the participants should be prosecuted and Trump's behaviour had cost the Republicans the Senate. He also argued that politicians who refused to condemn the event were unsuited for office.He argued thatTrumpismwas likely to remain a force within US politics and likened it toJacobitePretenders who sought to revolt in order to restore theHouse of Stuartto the British royal throne after theGlorious Revolution.

In a May 2023 article forThe Spectator,Ferguson hypothesized that a Trump victory in both the2024 Republican Party presidential primariesand2024 United States presidential electionis a highly plausible outcome despite a "campaign of lawfare" against the former president and that tactical Democratic Party schemes or hopes for Trump to secure the nomination so as to campaign on an anti-Trump platform stand a strong chance of backfiring. Ferguson notedJoe Biden's job approval ratings were lower at the time of writing than Trump's were in office and highlighted that other leaders such as Brazil'sLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva,Italy'sSilvio Berlusconiand Malaysia'sAnwar Ibrahimwere able to engineer political comebacks after being barred from politics. He further stated "the perception that Democratic operatives are using the legal system for political ends will likely help him win votes. It's a much better story than his earlier claim that the2020 election was stolen,which now bores almost everyone except Trump himself. It may seem paradoxical that the Democrats are harassing Trump in the courts if they want to run against him. But it makes sense: the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived. Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination. "

In September 2023, Ferguson again opined that the Democrats will likely to lose the White House to Trump unless Biden stepped down.He compared Trump's bid toGrover Clevelandwho served two non-consecutive terms, noted Biden was polling similar numbers toGerald FordandGeorge HW Bushahead of elections they lost after one term and that Biden's desire to keepKamala Harrisas a running mate would harm his campaign due to her even poorer approval ratings.He also argued that scandals involvingHunter Bidenwould furthermore hinder Biden's image by causing voters to feel less concern about Trump's indictments as both cases would heighten public perception that all politicians are crooks. Ferguson concluded that the only real option for the Democrats to defeat Trump if he won the GOP nomination would be to oust Biden and nominate a younger candidate, and added "My money is on Newsom".

Trump's "New World Order"

In an article from November 2016 inThe Boston Globe,Ferguson advised that Trump should support the efforts of the Prime Minister,Theresa Mayto have the UK leave theEuropean Unionas the best way of breaking up the EU, and sign afree trade agreementwith the United Kingdom onceBrexitis complete.To stabilise international relations, Ferguson speculated that Trump could give recognition toRussiaas aGreat Power,and work with PresidentVladimir Putinby giving Russia asphere of influenceinEurasia.In the same column, Ferguson advised Trump not to engage in atrade war with China,and seek a policy of co-evolution with PresidentXi Jinping.

Ferguson argued that Trump and Putin could work for the victory ofMarine Le Pen(who wantsFrance to leave the EU) and theFront nationalin the2017 French elections,arguing that Le Pen was the French politician most congenial to the Trump administration.Ferguson argued that a quintumvirate of Trump, Putin, Xi, May and Le Pen could then result in a stable "world order" that would reduce the likelihood of international conflict.

Economic policy

In its edition of 15 August 2005,The New Republicpublished "The New New Deal", an essay by Ferguson andLaurence J. Kotlikoff,a professor of economics atBoston University.The two scholars called for the following changes to the American government's fiscal and income security policies:

• Replacing thepersonal income tax,corporate income tax,Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax(FICA),estate tax,andgift taxwith a 33% Federal Retail Sales Tax (FRST), plus a monthly rebate, amounting to the amount of FRST that a household with similar demographics would pay if its income were at thepoverty line.See also:FairTax
• Replacing the old age benefits paid underSocial Securitywith a Personal Security System, consisting of private retirement accounts for all citizens, plus a government benefit payable to those whose savings were insufficient to afford a minimum retirement income
• ReplacingMedicare and Medicaidwith auniversalMedical Security System that would provide health insurance vouchers to all citizens, the value of which would be determined by one's health
• Cutting federaldiscretionary spendingby 20%

In February 2010, during theGreek government-debt crisis,Ferguson appeared on theGlenn Beck Programpredicting that ifinterest ratesrose in the United States it could experience a similarsovereign defaultand masscivil disorderto what was occurring in Greece. He also praised theTea Party movement.Later in the year he called for theFederal Reserveunder ChairmanBen Bernanketo end its second round ofquantitative easing.

In November 2012, Ferguson stated in a video withCNNthat the U.S. has enough energy resources to move towardsenergy independenceand could possibly enter a new economic golden age due to the related socio-economic growth—coming out of the post-world economic recession doldrums.

Ferguson was an attendee of the 2012Bilderberg Groupmeeting, where he was a speaker on economic policy.

Ferguson was highly critical of Britain'svote to leave the European Union,warning that "the economic consequences will be dire".Later, after backing the Remain campaign during the referendum, Ferguson changed his mind and came out in support of Britain's exit from the EU.

Exchanges with Paul Krugman

In May 2009, Ferguson became involved in a high-profile exchange of views with economistPaul Krugmanarising out of a panel discussion hosted byPEN/New York Reviewon 30 April 2009, regarding the U.S. economy. Ferguson contended that the Obama administration's policies are simultaneouslyKeynesianandmonetarist,in an "incoherent" mix, and specifically claimed that the government's issuance of a multitude of new bonds would cause an increase in interest rates.

Krugman argued that Ferguson's view is "resurrecting 75-year old fallacies" and full of "basic errors". He also stated that Ferguson is a "poseur" who "hasn't bothered to understand the basics, relying on snide comments and surface cleverness to convey the impression of wisdom. It's all style, no comprehension of substance."

In 2012, Jonathan Portes, the director of theNational Institute of Economic and Social Research,said that subsequent events had shown Ferguson to be wrong: "As we all know, since then both the US and UK have had deficits running at historically extremely high levels, and long-term interest rates at historic lows: as Krugman has repeatedly pointed out, the (IS-LM) textbook has been spot on. "

Later in 2012, after Ferguson wrote a cover story forNewsweekarguing thatMitt Romneyshould be elected in theupcoming US presidential election,Krugman wrote that there were multiple errors and misrepresentations in the story, concluding "We're not talking about ideology or even economic analysis here—just a plain misrepresentation of the facts, with an august publication letting itself be used to misinform readers. TheTimeswould require an abject correction if something like that slipped through. WillNewsweek?"

In an online rebuttal titled "Paul Krugman Is Wrong", Ferguson defended his prior cover story, insisting that it was Krugman who had been wrong on the facts.Matthew O'Brien countered that Ferguson was still distorting the meaning of theCongressional Budget Officereport being discussed, and that the entire piece could be read as an effort to deceive.

In 2013, Ferguson, namingDean Baker,Josh Barro,Brad DeLong,Matthew O'Brien,Noah Smith,Matthew YglesiasandJustin Wolfers,attacked "Krugman and his acolytes" in a three-part essay explaining his dislike of Paul Krugman.The essay title, "Krugtron the Invincible", originally comes from a post by Noah Smith.

Remarks on Keynes' sexual orientation

At a May 2013 investment conference inCarlsbad, California,Ferguson was asked about his views on economistJohn Maynard Keynes' quotation that "in the long run we are all dead."Ferguson stated that Keynes was indifferent to the future because he was gay and did not have children.The remarks were widely criticised for being offensive, factually inaccurate, and a distortion of Keynes' ideas.

Ferguson posted an apology for these statements shortly after reports of his words were widely disseminated, saying his comments were "as stupid as they were insensitive".In the apology, Ferguson stated: "My disagreements with Keynes's economic philosophy have never had anything to do with hissexual orientation.It is simply false to suggest, as I did, that his approach to economic policy was inspired by any aspect of his personal life. "

Stanford Cardinal Conversations

In spring 2018, Ferguson was involved withCollege Republicanleaders at Stanford to oppose a left-leaning student take over of the Cardinal Conversations initiative. In leaked emails, he was quoted as asking for opposition research on the student involved. He later apologized and resigned from the said initiative when emails were leaked revealing his involvement in the events. "I very much regret the publication of these emails. I also regret having written them," Ferguson wrote in a statement toThe Daily.

Cryptocurrency

Ferguson was an early skeptic ofcryptocurrencies,famously dismissing his teenage son's recommendation to buyBitcoinin 2014. By 2017, he had changed his mind on Bitcoin's utility, saying it had established itself as a form of "digital gold: a store of value for wealthy investors, especially those located in countries with weakrule of lawand highpolitical risk."In February 2019, Ferguson became an advisor for digital asset protocol firmAmpleforth Protocol,saying he was attracted by the firm's plan to "reinvent money in a way that protects individual freedom and to create a payments system that treats everyone equally".In March 2019, Ferguson spoke at an Australian Financial Review Business Summit, where he admitted to being "wrong to think there was no... use for a form of currency based onblockchain technology... I don't think this will turn out to be a complete delusion. "

Scottish nationalism and the British Union

Ferguson has stated that he identified as aScottish nationalistas a teenager, but moderated his views after moving to England to study history. He has argued that Scottish nationalism is sometimes fueled by a distorted view that Scots have always been oppressed by the English and is misconceived by people from outside of the United Kingdom as the choice between being Scottish or English. Ferguson states that in contrast to the subjugations of Wales and Ireland, Scotland was united as an "equal" country to England during theAct of Union,and cites events such asKing James VI of Scotlandinheriting the English crown, the failedDarien schemeto colonize Panama which prompted Scottish political elites to support the Union and that Scots were an integral part of theEast India Companyto question the narrative that Scotland was oppressed. Ferguson has also argued (citingWalter Scott'sWaverley) that Scotland after the Jacobite rebellion remained a land divided by warring clans and religious factions, and that the Union helped to quell some of the conflicts.

During the2014 Scottish independence referendum,Ferguson supported Scotland remaining within the United Kingdom, citing potential economic consequences ofScottish independence,but argued that theNocampaign needed to focus on Scotland's history of cosmopolitanism as well as economic points to save the Union.In 2021, ahead of the2021 Scottish Parliament election,Ferguson argued that the Labour administration underTony Blairhad made a mistake in believing devolution would stem Scottish nationalism, but instead it enabled theScottish National Partyto assume regional power and criticised the SNP government ofNicola Sturgeonfor its management of theScottish economy,educationandfreedom of speech.Ferguson furthermore claimed that the best way for the British government to thwart independence and the SNP's separationist demands was not by "unthinkingly accepting the SNP's argument that it has a moral right to a referendum on secession every time it wins a parliamentary election" and allowing a slimYesvote to decide the outcome, but instead by following the example of Canadian Prime MinisterJean Chretienand ministerStephane Dion's who handled theParti Quebecois's calls forQuebec secessionismby taking the matter to theCanadian Supreme Courtand introducing theClarity Actrather than letting it solely be up to "a slim majority of the voters ofQuebecif Canada broke up. "

European Union

In 2011, Ferguson predicted thatGrexit(the notion ofGreeceleaving the Euro currency) was unlikely to happen, but that Britain would leave theEuropean Unionin the near future as it would be easier for Britain to leave the EU owing to the fact it was not part of theEurozoneand that returning to a national currency would be harder for countries who had signed up to a single currency.In 2012, he described the Eurozone as a "disaster waiting to happen".

During the2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum,Ferguson was initially critical of the idea of Britain leaving the EU despite his criticisms of the latter, warning that "the economic consequences will be dire" and endorsed a Remain vote.However, after backing theRemain campaign,Ferguson changed his stance and came out in support ofBrexit,admitting that his support to stay in had been motivated in part on a personal level by not wanting the government ofDavid Cameron(with whom he had a friendship) to collapse and in turn riskJeremy Corbynbecoming Prime Minister. Ferguson elaborated that while Brexit would still have some economic consequences, the EU had been a "disaster" on its monetary, immigration, national security andradical Islampolicies. He also added that "one has to recognise that the European elite's performances over the last decade entirely justified the revolt of provincial England."

In 2020, Ferguson predicted that the EU is destined to become "moribund" and was at risk of collapse in the near future and that the single currency had only benefitedNorthern EuropeandGermanyin particular while causing economic havoc inSouthern Europe.However, he also argued the "real disintegration of Europe" will happen over theEU's migration policiesthat have both exacerbated and failed to provide solutions toillegal immigrationto the European continent fromNorth Africaand theMiddle East.Ferguson stated that high levels of illegal immigration fromMuslim-majority nationswould in turn further the rise of populist andeuroscepticmovements committed to rolling back or leaving the European Union. Ferguson also predicted that in a decade's time, Britain would question why there had been fuss, outcry or debates over the manner of how to leave the EU over Brexit because "we'll have left something that was essentially disintegrating" and that "it would be a little bit like getting a divorce and then your ex drops dead, and you spent all that money on the divorce courts, if only you'd known how sick the ex was. The European Union is sick, and people don't really want to admit that, least of all in Brussels."

When commenting on the ethnic diversity of the candidates for the July–September 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, Ferguson disputed that racism or nostalgia for the British Empire had played a significant role in the vote for Brexit.

COVID-19 pandemic

Ferguson, drawing on his research of the1881–1896 cholera pandemicand theSpanish flu,began predicting that theCOVID-19 pandemicwould have a severe impact on the world in January 2020. He later criticized both theBritishandU.S. federal government responses to the COVID-19 pandemicas inadequate, calling them "both, in their different ways, intelligible only as colossal failures by governments to make adequate preparations for a disaster they always knew to be a likely contingency".

However, he also dismissed the idea thatright-wing populismhad been responsible for failure of government responses to the pandemic, accusingliberalpoliticians such as Belgian Prime MinisterSophie Wilmèsand U.S. PresidentJoe Bidenof making similar mistakes to U.S. PresidentDonald Trumpand British Prime MinisterBoris Johnson.He reflected in a 2021 podcast interview withLex Fridmanthat many of the failures in the United States had been systemic rather than the personal fault of Donald Trump, and that Trump was unfairly blamed because of theTrump administration's messaging.He alleged that PresidentBarack Obama's handling of theU.S. opioid epidemichad been similarly costly but more obscure. Ferguson also praisedOperation Warp Speed,and claimed that part of the reason for the failure of the U.S. government to effectively respond to the pandemic was the absence of a similar program forCOVID-19 testing.

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

On 22 March 2022, Ferguson wrote: "I conclude that the U.S. intends to keep this war going. The administration will continue to supply the Ukrainians with anti-aircraft Stingers, antitank Javelins and explosive Switchblade drones.... It helps explain, among other things, the lack of any diplomatic effort by the U.S. to secure a cease-fire.... Prolonging the war runs the risk not just of leaving tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead and millions homeless, but also of handing Putin something that he can plausibly present at home as victory."He also criticized thepolitical rally held in Moscowfor justifying the invasion and described it as "fascistic".

2023–2024 Israel–Hamas war

In wake of the2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel,Ferguson said, "I think it is clear that Israel can no longer co-exist with Hamas in control ofGaza.If anybody doubted that, then surely those doubts were dispelled on October the 7th with the most hideous scenes of violence against Jews sincethe Holocaust".He added that" The issue is can Hamas be destroyed, as it should be, at an acceptable cost ".

Personal life

Ferguson got to know journalistSue Douglasin 1987, when she was his editor atThe Sunday Times.They married in 1994, and went on to have three children.

In February 2010, Ferguson separated from Douglas, and thereafter started datingAyaan Hirsi Ali.Ferguson and Douglas divorced in 2011. Ferguson married Hirsi Ali on 10 September 2011;she gave birth to their son three months later.Upset about the media coverage of his relationship with Ali, which implied that he had begun dating her before his first marriage had unraveled, Ferguson stated, "I don't care about the sex lives of celebrities, so I was a little unprepared for having my private life all over the country."

Ferguson dedicated his book,Civilization,to "Ayaan". In an interview withThe Guardian,Ferguson spoke about his love for Ali who, he writes in the preface, "understands better than anyone I know what Western civilisation really means – and what it still has to offer the world".The couple have two sons.

Ferguson's self-confessedworkaholismhas placed strains on his personal relations in the past. Ferguson has commented that:

[F]rom 2002, the combination of making TV programmes and teaching at Harvard took me away from my children too much. You don't get those years back. You have to ask yourself: "Was it a smart decision to do those things?" I think the success I have enjoyed since then has been bought at a significant price. In hindsight, there would have been a bunch of things that I would have said no to.

Ferguson was the inspiration forAlan Bennett's playThe History Boys(2004), particularly the character of Irwin, a history teacher who urges his pupils to find a counterintuitive angle, and who then goes on to become a television historian.Irwin, writes David Smith ofThe Observer,gives the impression that "an entire career can be built on the trick of contrariness".

In 2018, Ferguson becamenaturalisedas aUS citizen.

On 14 June 2024, Ferguson was awarded aknighthoodin the birthday honours list ofKing Charles III.

Selected bibliography

Main article:Niall Ferguson bibliography

• Ferguson, Niall (1995).Paper and iron: Hamburg business and German politics in the era of inflation, 1897–1927.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• ——— (1999).The House of Rothschild: The World's Banker, 1849–1999.New York, NY:Viking Press.ISBN0-670-88794-3.
  • ——— (1998).The World's Banker: The History of the House of Rothschild.London:Weidenfeld & Nicolson.ISBN0-297-81539-3.
  • ——— (1998).The House of Rothschild.New York: Viking.ISBN0-670-85768-8.
• ——— (1999) [1998].The Pity of War.New York: Basic Books.ISBN0-465-05711-X.OCLC41124439.
• ——— (1999) [1997].Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals.New York: Basic Books.ISBN0-465-02322-3.
• ——— (2001).The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World, 1700–2000.London: Allen Lane.ISBN0-7139-9465-7.OCLC46459770.
• ——— (2003).Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World.London:Allen Lane.ISBN0-7139-9615-3.
  • ——— (2003).Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power.New York:Basic Books.ISBN0-465-02328-2.American edition.
• ——— (2004).Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire.Gardners Books.ISBN0-7139-9770-2.
• ——— (2005).1914.Pocket Penguins70s S. London, England: Penguin Books.ISBN0-14-102220-5.
• ——— (2006).The War of the World: History's Age of Hatred.London: Allen Lane.ISBN0-7139-9708-7.American ed. has the title: The war of the World: Twentieth-century Conflict and the Descent of the WestOCLC70839824(also a Channel 4 series)
• ——— (2008).The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World.London: Allen Lane.ISBN978-1-84614-106-5.
• ——— (2010).High Financier: The Lives and Times of Siegmund Warburg.New York: Penguin.ISBN978-1-59420-246-9.
• ——— (2011).Civilization: The West and the Rest.The Penguin Press HC.ISBN978-1-59420-305-3.
• ——— (2013).The Great Degeneration.Penguin Books.
• ——— (2015).Kissinger: 1923–1968: The Idealist.New York:Penguin Press.ISBN978-1-59420-653-5.
• ——— (2017).The Square and the Tower: Networks, Hierarchies and the Struggle for Global Power.London: Allen Lane.ISBN978-024129-046-0.
• ——— (2021).Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe.London: Allen Lane.ISBN978-0-24148844-7.

See also

• Anglosphere

References

General references

• Snowman, Daniel(October 2004)."Niall Ferguson".History Today.54(10): 37–39. Archived fromthe originalon 3 March 2010.Retrieved14 July2008.
• Ferguson, Niall (1999).The Pity of War.New York: Basic Books.ISBN978-0-14-027523-0.
• "The Ascent of Money",Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce
• "Audio: Niall Ferguson in conversation",The Forum,BBC World Service
• Hans Koning,"Still Not Over Over There?"Archived5 September 2013 at theWayback Machine,The Nation,August 1999 – Review ofThe Pity of War
• Martin Rubin,"A Banker to the Rescue",WSJ, 26 June 2010
• Liaquat Ahamed,"Yesterday's Banker",NYTimes, 30 July 2010
• "The Sun Sets in the West"^[usurped],Oxonian Review,4 April 2011 – Review ofCivilization
• "An Interview with Niall Ferguson"^[usurped],Oxonian Review,9 April 2011
• "Niall Ferguson and the brain-dead American right",24 May 2011

External links

• Official website
• Niall FergusonatTED
• Niall FergusonatIMDb
• AppearancesonC-SPAN
• Niall FergusononCharlie Rose