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Potential superpower

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Extant superpower
United States
Potential superpowers—supported in varying degrees by academics
China
European Union
India
Russia

Apotential superpoweris asovereign stateor otherpolitythat is speculated to be or have the potential to become asuperpower;a sovereign state orsupranational unionthat holds a dominant position characterized by the ability toexert influenceandproject poweron a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, and/or cultural means.[1][2][3]

After theUnited States,which, following thecollapse of the Soviet Union,is currently considered to be the world'sforemost[4]and sole widely undisputed[5]—and by some accounts only[6][7][8]—superpower, onlyChina,theEuropean Union,India,andRussiahave consistently been academically discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century, withJapanhaving been a former candidate in the 1980s.

China

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Further information:Chinese CenturyandChina's peaceful rise

ThePeople's Republic of Chinahas arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[9][10][11][12][13][14]and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[15][16][17][18]One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population.[19]According toU.S. Secretary of State,Antony Blinken,China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enoughpowertojeopardizethe currentglobal order".[20]

Great focus has been placed on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States. Examples of this have included the establishing and large-scale expansion in countries joining theAsian Infrastructure Investment Bankin contrast to traditional western institutions, along with theBelt and Road Initiativeand China's role in theworldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.[21][22]It has also been argued that the future is likely to be of growing competition between two highly dominant countries in the form of the United States and China while others begin to lag behind economically.[23]Predictions have also been made of it overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.[24]Due tothe country's rapidly developing AI industry,China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".[25][26][27]

In contrast to this however there have been some who question how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed on China's very large butageing and shrinking populationof over 1.4 billion, and long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation, and also that while it continues to grow it has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.[28][29][30][31]A supposed lack ofsoft poweris another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.[32][33]

There has been significant discussion around the ability for China to project power militarily. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see theShanghai Cooperation Organisationbecome the "NATOof the East ".[34]It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during thewar on terrorhas allowed Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.[35]Others have argued however that China still remains surrounded by potentially hostile nations and still lacks few friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.[36]

European Union

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See also:EurosphereandPaneuropean Union

TheEuropean Union(EU) has been called an emerging superpower or having already achieved that status, primarily to do with its economic power and political influence on the world stage. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.[37][38]

Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still the matter of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant in the 21st century and accordingly so when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.[39][40]Others however have questioned this interpretation, instead arguing that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines the case that the EU is a potential superpower.[41][42]

The EU's lack of political integration has also come under conflicting views regarding its effect on superpower status. Some have argued that its more "low profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration of being a superpower rather than simply failing to meet them.[38][43]Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,[44][19]and it has even been argued that the EU remains as little more than an extension of a Europe reliant or dominated by the United States.[45]

The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to theBrussels effect,which suggests thatregulationsandstandards applicable in the EUwill also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.[46][47][48]

India

[edit]
Main article:India as a potential superpower
Further information:Indian Century

TheRepublic of Indiahas seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower economically. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.[49][50][51][52]Economists and researchers atHarvard Universityhave projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.[53][54]Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.[55]

While India's economic growth has continued, others have noted that inequality remains high in the country and that its potential for trading appears more limited compared to regional rivals such as China, and that despite India briefly becoming the world's fastest-growing economy in 2015 its growth declined below China's since 2018.[56][57][58][59][60]

It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is also geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".[61]

Russia

[edit]
Further information:Russia as an energy superpowerandHistory of the Russian Federation

Russia,sinceits imperial times,has been considered both agreat powerand aregional power.Throughout most of theSoviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's twosuperpowers.However, after thedissolution of the Soviet Union,the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status,[62][63][64]while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.[65]In his 2005 publication entitledRussia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower,Steven Rosefielde,a professor of economics atUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[66][page needed]Stephen KinzerofThe Boston Globecompared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", takingUkraineandCrimeaas examples.[67]

Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of theLos Angeles Times,contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.[68]

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population.Fred Weirsaid that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[69]In 2011, British historian and professorNiall Fergusonalso highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[70]Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.[71]

Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following theRussian invasion of Ukrainein 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economistPaul Krugmanto suggest Russia was little more than a "PotemkinSuperpower ".[72]

Comparative statistics of current candidates

[edit]
Country/Union Population[73][74] Area
(km2) 		GDP (nominal)[75] GDP (PPP)[75] Military
expenditures
(Int$ billion)[76] 		HDI[77] UN Security Council veto power
(USD million) Per capita($) (Int$ million) Per capita(Int$)
United States 332,632,918 9,525,067 25,035,164 68,309 22,675,271 75,180 877 0.926 (very high) Yes
China 1,411,778,724 9,596,961 18,321,197 11,819 26,656,766 21,291 292 0.761 (high) Yes
European Union 447,706,209 4,233,262 17,127,535 38,256 20,918,062 53,960 186[78] 0.911 (very high) (France)
India 1,400,625,899 3,287,263 3,468,566 3,057 10,207,290 10,475 81.4 0.645 (medium) No
Russia 146,171,015 17,125,191 2,133,092 11,654 4,328,122 31,967 86.4 0.824 (very high) Yes

Former candidates

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Japan

[edit]

In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted thatJapanwould eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, growingeconomic,military,industrial,technologicalandculturalinfluence, largegross domestic product,andhigh economic growth at that time.[79][80][81]Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpassthat of the United States.[82][83][80]However, this prediction failed to materialise followinga stock market crashand the resulting "Lost Decades",where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,[84]whileits population has been aging since the late 1980sbefore suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.[10][85]

See also

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References

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