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WORKINGPAPER

24-18MigrationorStagnation:Aging

andEconomicGrowthinKorea

Today,theWorldTomorrow

MichaelA.Clemens

July2024

ABSTRACT

SouthKoreafacesanunprecedentedeconomiccrisisdrivenbyrapidpopulationMichaelA.Clemens,

nonresidentsenior

aging,asitapproachesafutureofnegativeeconomicgrowth.ThispaperfellowatthePeterson

examinesthefullrangeofpossiblepolicyresponseswiththepotentialtorestoreInstituteforInternational

dynamismtotheKoreaneconomy.Contrarytomanyprioranalyses,IfindthatEconomics,isprofessor

inthedepartmentof

enhancedlabormigrationtoKoreaisnecessary,sufficient,andfeasible.MigrationeconomicsatGeorge

isnecessarybecauseinthebestforecastswehave,nootherclassofpolicyhasMasonUniversity.

thequantitativepotentialtomeaningfullyoffsetaging.Migrationissufficient

becauseenhancedtemporarylabormigrationbyitselfwouldoffsetmostof

Korea’sdemographicdragongrowthoverthenext50years.Andmigrationis

feasiblebecausethelevelsofmigrationandtimescaleofthetransitionwould

resemblethatalreadycarriedoutbyMalaysiaandAustralia.Manyadvanced

economieswillfollowinKorea’sdemographicfootstepsindecadestocome,and

havemuchtolearnfromthedecisionsthattheKoreangovernmentmakesnow.

JELCodes:F22,J15,K37

Keywords:Migration,SouthKorea,Labor,Demography,EconomicGrowth,

PopulationAging

Note:TheauthorhadhelpfulinteractionswithOlivierBlanchard,Han-kooYeo,Maury

Obstfeld,GaryHufbauer,KarenDynan,JacobFunkKirkegaard,

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