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  • Valuing an engagement surface using a large scale dynamic causal model
    Abhimanyu Mukerji, Sushant More, Ashwin Viswanathan Kannan, Lakshmi Ravi, Hua Chen, Naman Kohli, Chris Khawand, Dinesh Mandalapu
    KDD 2024
    2024
    With recent rapid growth in online shopping, AI-powered Engagement Surfaces (ES) have become ubiquitous across retail services. These engagement surfaces perform an increasing range of functions, including recommending new products for purchase, remind-ing customers of their orders and providing delivery notifications. Understanding the causal effect of engagement surfaces on value driven for customers
    Economics
  • Multiply-robust causal change attribution
    Victor Quintas, Taha Bahadori, Eduardo Santiago, Jeff Mu, Dominik Janzing, David E. Heckerman
    ICML 2024
    2024
    Comparing two samples of data, we observe a change in the distribution of an outcome variable. In the presence of multiple explanatory variables, how much of the change can be ex-plained by each possible cause? We develop a new estimation strategy that, given a causal model, combines regression and re-weighting methods to quantify the contribution of each causal mechanism. Our proposed methodology is multiply
    Economics
  • Proximal causal inference for synthetic control with surrogates
    Jizhou Liu, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Carlos Varjao
    AISTATS 2024
    2024
    The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed. However, SCM faces challenges in accurately predicting postintervention potential outcomes had, contrary to fact, the treatment been withheld, when the pre-intervention period is short or the post-intervention period is long. To address these issues, we
    Economics
  • Nowcasting recession risk
    Francesco Furno, Domenico Giannone
    IAAE 2023, Research Methods and Applications on Macroeconomic Forecasting
    2024
    We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but
    Economics
  • Adaptive experimentation when you can’t experiment
    Yao Zhao, Kwang-Sung Jun, Bibek Adhikari, Tanner Fiez, Lalit Jain
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    In this study, we aim to present an effective methodology tailored for companies interested in implement-ing adaptive experimentation in scenarios characterized by potential selection biases or endogeneity. To illustrate our approach, we begin by delving into the realm of online experimentation. Online platforms routinely conduct thousands of A/B tests annually to gain insights into the impact of user-facing
    Economics
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Economist II, Customer Behavior Analytics
US, CA, Sunnyvale
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where people can find and discover anything they want to buy online. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Are you seeking an environment where you can drive innovation? Do you want to apply learning techniques and advanced mathematical modeling to solve real world problems? Do you want to play a key role in the future of Amazon's Retail business? This job for you! The Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) team at Amazon is responsible for the architecture, design, implementation of tools used to understand customer behavior and value generation for all Amazon programs. Come and join us! Amazon’s CBA team is looking for Economists, who can work at the intersection of economics, statistics and machine learning; and leverage the power of big data to solve complex problems like long-term causal effect estimation. Key job responsibilities Economists at Amazon are expected to work directly with other Economists and senior management on key business problems in retail, international retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, and operations. Amazon economists will apply the frontier of economic thinking to market design, pricing, forecasting, program evaluation, online advertising and other areas. You will build econometric models, using our world class data systems, and apply economic theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. Economists at Amazon will be expected to develop new techniques to process large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems around the company.
Economist II, PV Economics
GB, London
Are you excited about using econometrics and statistics to impact real-world business decisions? We are looking for an Economist to build innovative solutions based on econometrics, experimentation, and machine learning helping us to answer challenging and impactful business problems for Prime Video. If you have an entrepreneurial spirit, you know how to deliver results fast, and you have a deeply quantitative, highly innovative approach to solving problems, and long for the opportunity to build pioneering solutions to challenging problems, we want to talk to you. Key job responsibilities - Design, set up, and analyze experiments to measure impact of strategic PV initiatives - Leverage causal inference methods to estimate the impact of large-scale investments ex post - Collaborate with other scientists at Amazon to deliver measurable progress and change - Influence business leaders based on empirical findings A day in the life You will work as an individual contributor working on a mix of complex strategic, long-term research as well as tactical analytical projects. You will write technical as well as business-facing docs and present your work to business leaders and the science community. About the team The PV Economics team consists of PhD-trained structural and causal-inference Economists. We are an high-impact team driving decision-making in areas including PV with ads and content portfolio optimization.
Senior Economist - Amazon Business, Business Prime
US, TX, Austin
Come be a part of a rapidly expanding $35 billion dollar global business. At Amazon Business, a fast-growing startup passionate about building solutions, we set out every day to innovate and disrupt the status quo. We stand at the intersection of tech & retail in the B2B space developing innovative purchasing and procurement solutions to help businesses and organizations thrive. At Amazon Business, we strive to be the most recognized and preferred strategic partner for smart business buying. Bring your insight, imagination and a healthy disregard for the impossible. Join us in building and celebrating the value of Amazon Business to buyers and sellers of all sizes and industries. Unlock your career potential. The Business Prime team is looking for a talented Economist with well rounded set of capabilities to help manage our ever growing need for analysis of increasingly complex business questions. At Amazon, understanding customer data is paramount to our success in providing customers with relevant and enticing benefits as well as an expanding set of propositions internationally. You will be working in one of the worlds’ largest and most exciting big-data environments. The Economist role occupies a unique space at the intersection of technology, machine-learning, econometrics, large-scale scientific computing, social science, and product management. In this role, you will be the thought leader on the economic underpinnings of the Business Prime program, influence stakeholders across function and at senior levels of Amazon, engage with SDM counterparts to build the technology solution to serve customers, and with partner with marketing on campaigns optimized to maximize value for customers and Amazon. The ideal candidate will need to understand business problems and turn them into useful analyses and recommendations. They will communicate complicated concepts clearly to business leaders and other scientists, have a desire to make a large business impact for customers using econometrics, data science and strong execution and completion skills for major, highly-visible strategic projects under fast-paced business deadlines. The role involves both building data products, i.e. automated and productionized models at scale, as well as pricing, plan structure, benefits/proposition, and other strategic decisions including customer churn reduction. Amazon Business (www.amazon.com/business) is an online store that combines the selection, convenience and value customers have come to know and love from Amazon, with new features and unique benefits tailored to the needs of businesses. Amazon Business provides easy access to hundreds of millions of products – everything from IT and lab equipment to education and food-service supplies. Amazon Business customers also enjoy a variety of benefits, including business-only pricing and selection, a multi-seller marketplace, single- or multi-user business accounts, Business Prime, approval workflow, purchasing system integrations, payment solutions, tax exemptions, dedicated customer support and more. Business Prime is a paid subscription service for verified business, charity or government organizations that provides the familiar Prime shopping experience end users love at home, with pricing plans and benefits that are suited for work. Business Prime now serves customers throughout the world, with a tiered pricing model currently based on number of users, and associated benefits with different willingness to pay and cost to serve profiles. Our customers range from government entities with tens of thousands of users to sole proprietors, each with different micro-economic characteristics.
Senior Economist, Causal Machine Learning
US, WA, Bellevue
Economists at Amazon will be expected to work directly with our Chief Economists and senior management on key business problems faced in retail, international retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, and operations. Amazon economists will apply the frontier of economic thinking to market design, pricing, forecasting, program evaluation, online advertising and other areas. You will build econometric models, using our world class data systems, and apply economic theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. Economists at Amazon will be expected to develop new techniques to process large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems around the company. Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where people can find and discover anything they want to buy online. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment.
Economist III, CMO
US, WA, Seattle
Do you have a passion for diving deep to uncover key insights that drive critical business decisions? If yes, the Campaigns Measurement and Optimization (CMO) team is looking for talented individuals with your enthusiasm and skills to work as part of the team. We are looking for a Senior economist with marketing measurement, experimentation and causal inference background, who is curious, driven, and passionate about marketing insights and analytics. The Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) organization owns Amazon’s insights pipeline, from data collection to deep analytics. We aspire to be the place where Amazon teams come for answers, a trusted source for data and insights that empower our systems and business leaders to make better decisions. Our outputs shape Amazon product and marketing teams’ decisions and thus how Amazon customers see, use, and value their experience. CMO’s mission is to make Amazon’s marketing the most measurably effective in the world. Our long-term objective is to measure the incremental impact of all Amazon’s marketing investments on consumer perceptions, actions, and sales. This requires measuring Amazon’s marketing comparably and consistently across channels, business teams and countries using a comprehensive approach that integrates all Paid, Owned and Earned marketing activity. As the experts on marketing performance, we will lead the Amazon worldwide marketing community by providing critical cross-country insights that can power marketing best practices and tenets globally. In this role, you will be a technical leader to design and run Randomized Control Trials and large-scale online experiments to measure the performance of Amazon's marketing cross all marketing channels, geographies and businesses. You will lead scientists and engineers to develop both experimental and observational models to understand customer behavior and how customers respond to Amazon’s advertisement. You will drive innovation to combine experiment results with observational model outputs to build more accurate marketing measurement solutions. You will lead strategic measurement science initiatives in CMO and across various marketing teams, scaling experimentation and development and deployment of the measurement science models, real-time inference, and cross-channel orchestration. As a successful economist, you are an analytical problem solver who enjoys diving into data, leads problem solving, guides development of new frameworks, writes code, is excited about investigations and algorithms, and can credibly interface between technical teams and business stakeholders. You are an expert in causal inference and experiment design, preferably has experience leveraging experimental model to calibrate observational model. You are a hands-on innovator who can contribute to advancing Marketing measurement technology in a B2C and B2B environment, and push the limits on what’s scientifically possible with a razor sharp focus on measurable customer and business impact. You will coach and guide scientists in the team to grow the team’s talent and scale the impact of your work. You will also communicate verbally and in writing to business customers and leadership team with various levels of technical knowledge, educating them about our systems, as well as sharing insights and recommendations We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA | Irvine, CA, USA
Sr Economist, Amazon Search, Search Data Science
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon is one of the most popular sites in the US. Our product search engine, one of the most heavily used services in the world, indexes billions of products and serves hundreds of millions of customers world-wide. Our team leads the data science and analytics efforts for the search page and we own multiple aspects of understanding how we can measure customer satisfaction with our experiences. This includes building science based insights and novel metrics to define and track customer focused aspects. We are looking for a senior economist to focus on measuring the quality of our most strategic investments and define tradeoff frameworks for decision making. This includes new CX paradigms like conversational shopping (LLMs) which may shift customer behavior in hard to detect ways, and have impact on upstream and downstream Amazon systems like logistics and selection. About the team The mission of the Search Data Science team is to build a world class shopping experience that delights customers. We focus on the long term and big picture, ensuring that the search page is balancing strategic trade-offs. We bring to this effort expertise in constrained optimization, causal inference, and marketplace equilibrium effects. We build systems, metrics, and mechanisms to ensure that product decisions are scientifically sound. We develop models to estimate the downstream dollar value of the quality of the experience. We spend time on evaluating experiments to develop durable learnings.
Economist-Topline Forecasting, Topline Forecasting
US, NY, New York
Where will Amazon's growth come from in the next year? What about over the next five? Which product lines are poised to quintuple in size? Are we investing enough in our infrastructure, or too much? How do our customers react to changes in prices, product selection, or delivery times? These are among the most important questions at Amazon today. The Topline Forecasting team in the Supply Chain Optimization Technologies (SCOT) group is looking for innovative, passionate and results-oriented Economists to answer these questions. You will have an opportunity to own the long-run outlook for Amazon’s global consumer business and shape strategic decisions at the highest level. The successful candidate will be able to formalize problem definitions from ambiguous requirements, build econometrics models using Amazon’s world-class data systems, and develop cutting-edge solutions for non-standard problems. Key job responsibilities · Develop new econometric models or improve existing approaches using scalable techniques. · Extract data for analysis and model development from large, complex datasets. · Closely work with engineering teams to build scalable, efficient systems that implement prototypes in production. · Apply economic theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. · Distill problem definitions from informal business requirements and communicate technical solutions to senior business leaders. · Drive innovation and best practices in applied research across the Amazon research science community. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: New York, NY, USA
Principal Economist, Stores Ads Monetization
US, WA, Seattle
Do you ever struggle to explain your work? How's this: "Do you shop at Amazon?” Every day, tens of millions of customers visit Amazon to discover, research, and buy products. Millions of interactions are processed each hour, as customers navigate and explore our vast selection of products, features, and services around the world. The Amazon Stores Advertising Team’s vision is to enable customers to discover products they love from brand owners around the world. Amazon Stores are the product showroom for the “everything store”, our reach and impact uniquely positions us to innovate on behalf of our customers. The Stores Advertising Team partners with organizations across Amazon to drive high-quality advertising experiences across geographies, intents, missions, products and businesses; while ensuring a cohesive, lovable shopping experience. We are looking for a Principal Economist to establish the econ charter of the Amazon Stores Advertising Team. You will work with science and business leaders across Amazon to build econometrics models to improve ads monetization decisions in Amazon stores. You will partner closely with teams in Advertising, Weblab, Search, and Personalization to influence their roadmap, challenge their assumptions, and maximize the long-term success of our stores. Where possible, you will design and conduct experiments to estimate the long term impact of new ads experiences on customers and advertisers. You will influence the design of new ads products that maintain a lovable shopping experience. Key job responsibilities - Partner with teams across Amazon to raise accuracy of measurement of short and long term impact of ads on customer experience - Establish economic frameworks to improve ads monetization decisions in Amazon Stores - Design and run experiments to increase understanding of ads impact on advertisers, publishers, and customers - Act as the scientific authority for the Amazon Stores Advertising team in front of senior Amazon leaders and other science teams for economic related topics - Help craft the multi-year science strategy for the organization About the team This role is within a brand-new organization focused on delighting customers while driving revenue. Prospective candidates should have the desire and capability to drive results from the ’ground floor’ of an impactful and important charter.
Economist, Ads Econ
US, NY, New York
The Ads Econ Team within Digicon is looking for an experienced PhD economist. You will lead science projects using cutting edge econometrics and ML to advance science, especially behind our advertising business. Advertising is used daily to surface new selection and provide customers a wider set of product choices along their shopping journeys. The business is focused on generating value for shoppers as well as advertisers. Our team uses a combination of econometrics, machine learning, and data science to build disruptive products for all our Advertising products. We also generate insights to guide Amazon Advertising strategy, providing direct support to senior leadership. You will also be responsible for developing the economics behind the revenue and pricing mechanisms for Amazon's budding automotive efforts. Location could be Seattle, Los Angeles, or New York City. Key job responsibilities Leverage econometrics and ML models to optimize advertising strategies on behalf of our customers. Influence key business and product decisions based on insights from models you develop. Identify and pitch new opportunities to leadership that are suggested by the data. Partner with other science leaders throughout Amazon to develop consistent and repeatable solutions. Design and analyze experiments (A/B testing etc.) to evaluate different strategies. Develop revenue and pricing strategies that meet the needs of Amazon, our customers, and our business partners. Work with other scientists, software developers, and product partners to implement your solutions.
Economist, Grocery - GOA
US, WA, Seattle
WWGS (Worldwide Grocery Stores) organization leads the innovation of Amazon’s omni-channel grocery offerings (Fresh, Whole Foods, 3P). In this space, Amazon aims to delight customers by providing broad selection, competitive prices, best-in-class delivery, convenient in-store/pickup options across regions, and an end-to-end shopping experience that makes it easy for customers to discover what they love and build complete grocery baskets. The Grocery Economics and Optimization team in WWGS is looking for an Economist to help create and drive the long-term vision for how we manage selection of products for our Fresh brand globally. As an Economist on our team, you will work with product managers, vendor managers, software development engineers (SDEs), and other scientists to help the grocery organization determine optimal selection for our online and physical stores. You will develop and extend models of key customer behavior and preferences such as substitutability/complementarity of products, expected demand, and optimization approaches that produce selection recommendations that delight our customers and meet our real-world constraints. You will be expected to own the the full lifecycle of your projects from devising methodological approaches, implementation, validation, and working with engineers to integrate into production systems. A successful candidate will be able to partner effectively with both business and technical teams, including clear communication of results and the ability to influence a variety of stakeholders. They will be an expert in machine learning and operations research. The role will also include running experiments to validate developed approaches. Key job responsibilities - Interact with engineering, operations, science, and business teams to develop an understand and domain knowledge of processes, system architectures, and business requirements. - Develop scalable models to generate selection models. - Create prototypes, simulations, and experiments to test devised solutions. - Advocate technical solutions to business stakeholders, engineering teams, and executive-level decision makers - Work closely with engineers to integrate models into production systems. A day in the life If you are not sure that every qualification on the list above describes you exactly, we'd still love to hear from you! At Amazon, we value people with unique backgrounds, experiences, and skillsets. If you’re passionate about this role and want to make an impact on a global scale, please apply! Amazon offers a full range of benefits that support you and eligible family members, including domestic partners and their children. Benefits can vary by location, the number of regularly scheduled hours you work, length of employment, and job status such as seasonal or temporary employment. The benefits that generally apply to regular, full-time employees include: 1. Medical, Dental, and Vision Coverage 2. Maternity and Parental Leave Options 3. Paid Time Off (PTO) 4. 401(k) Plan About the team The WW Grocery Stores team has a broad charter spanning multiple banners worldwide – Amazon Fresh, Amazon Go, Whole Foods, and third party grocery partnerships.
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