'Bad Boys for Life' Looking at Possible $70 Million MLK Debut
SATURDAY AM UPDATE:Sony's Bad Boys for Life is looking to deliverthe second largest MLK weekend performance everafter bringing in an estimated$23.5 millionon Friday. Current expectations are for a three-day performance nearing $60 million and a four-day coming just shy of $70 million. Along with solid reviews from critics, the film received an "A"CinemaScoreand holds a 96% audience rating atRottenTomatoes.

Universal's Dolittle is actually outperforming expectations, delivering an estimated$6.3 millionon Friday and currently looking at a $23.4 million three-day and a four-day performance around $31 million. While the film bombed with critics, opening day audiences gave the film a "B"CinemaScorealong with a 75% audience rating onRottenTomatoes.

You can check out all of the Friday estimatesright hereand we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE:Sony'sBad Boys for Lifetook in a January record,$6.36 millionfrom Thursday night previews beginning at 4PM in in 3,154 locations. The performance is dramatically ahead of the $1.06 million and $1.26 millionRide AlongandRide Along 2brought in from previews and also outperforms the $5.9 million forJohn Wick: Chapter 3,which delivered a $56.8 million debut last May. In fact, it is more than $1 million ahead of the previous January preview record of $5.3 million forAmerican Sniperwhich went on to gross arecord,$107.2 million over the four-day MLK weekend debut. Look for big things to come for the film over the coming days.

As for Universal'sDolittle,the film grossed$925,000in previews last night from 3,050 theaters with showings beginning at 5PM.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW:Following Monday's announcement of this year's Oscar nominations and the recent Golden Globe Awards, we are knee deep in awards season and films such as1917andLittle Womenwill hope to take advantage of their recent nominations while this weekend also features a pair of new wide releases. Sony is bringingWill SmithandMartin Lawrenceback together inBad Boys for Lifewhile Universal is hopingRobert Downey Jr.'s mass appeal extends beyond theAvengersfranchise as he topline's the $175 million productionDolittle.

Looking to top the weekend box office is the return of detectives Marcus Burnett (Lawrence) and Mike Lowrey (Smith) inBad Boys for Life,the third film in theBad Boysfranchise.DirectorsAdil El ArbiandBilall Fallahtake over forMichael Baywho directed the first two installments, the last of which was released 17 years ago and grossed nearly $275 million worldwide. Carrying a $90 million budget, the film enters the weekend with decent early reviews -- 75% onRottenTomatoesand 59 onMetacritic-- and the studio is anticipating a four-day performance around $38 million compared to tracking, which has a wide range from $32-48 million for the holiday weekend.

From our perspective, a look at IMDb page view data is promising when compared to films such asRide AlongandRide Along 2,both of which also opened over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend with four-day performances topping $41 million each, withRide Alongcurrently holding thesecond largest MLK weekend everat $48.6 million. The comp to the twoRide Alongmovies feels good, but one interesting data point is theater counts. The firstRide Alongdelivered its monster opening from just 2,663 theaters whereasBad Boyswill debut in 3,775 locations. Just how much will the additional 1,112 theaters helpBad Boys?

It would be one thing to say the competition will be fierce, butRide Alongprobably had even stiffer competition, going up against three other new wide releases, not to mentionLone Survivor,which was coming off a weekend very similar to what we just saw from1917.All told, we're going to go with a forecast pretty much mirroringRide Along,anticipating a$48 millionfour-day weekend and possibly enough to make this thesecond largest MLK weekend opening ever.

Second place should go to the aforementioned1917,which delivered a great nationwide launch this past weekend and followed that up with ten Oscar nominations on Monday. As we mentioned,Lone Survivorhad a similar wide break back in 2014, right before MLK weekend, and dipped -41.7% the following weekend, but we're expecting1917to hold a bit better. Right now we're anticipating a drop closer to -27% and a four-day performance around$33.5 millionasLone Survivorwasn't enjoying nearly the awards attention1917is currently basking in.

Next we come to Universal'sDolittle,which carries a $175 million budget and is not playing well with critics, earning a 13% onRottenTomatoesand a 28 onMetacritic.Studio expectations are for a four-day performance in the low-to-mid $20 million range, which lines up with tracking and, with the film opening in over 4,000 locations, it better hit those numbers. A look at IMDb page view performance has us comping to 2015'sPaddingtonand it's pacing very similarly over the two weeks leading up to release. Thing is, that film had much better reviews, which has us hesitating to expect a performance matching it as we're going with a$22-23 millionfour-day forecast and won't be surprised if it falls a bit short.

Fourth and fifth place is pretty much a toss-up betweenJumanji: The Next LevelandStar Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,both of which we expect to bring in around $12-13 million for the four-day holiday.

In limited release, after an excellent Wednesday premiere that saw GKids'sWeathering with Youtake the #2 spot atthe Wednesday box office,the film will go into 450 locations this weekend. The film has, so far, generated nearly $180 million at the global box office.

This weekend'sfour-dayforecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Bad Boys for Life(3,775 theaters) - $48.0 M
  • 1917(3,612 theaters) - $33.5 M
  • Dolittle(4,000 theaters) - $22.0 M
  • Jumanji: The Next Level(3,323 theaters) - $12.4 M
  • Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker(3,053 theaters) - $12.2 M
  • Just Mercy(2,457 theaters) - $8.5 M
  • Little Women(2,503 theaters) - $7.6 M
  • Like a Boss(3,081 theaters) - $7.3 M
  • Frozen II(2,080 theaters) - $5.6 M
  • Knives Out(1,667 theaters) - $5.3 M


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