‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ To Rule As Newcomers ‘Puss in Boots: The Last Wish’, ‘Babylon’, & ‘I Wanna Dance with Somebody’ Open In Time For Christmas Weekend
The holiday season is in full swing, with Christmas falling this Sunday and a few new releases in store for the busy end-of-the-year movie-going rush. This weekend will likely be a notch smaller than last year’s $144 million Christmas-weekend haul, and like last year the three-day numbers will be depressed by having the soft movie-going day of Christmas Eve fall over the weekend. Still,Avatar: The Way of Watershould lead a relatively strong finish to the year (remember the overall box office was a brutally low $57.6 million just two weekends ago).
While the newcomersPuss in Boots: The Last Wish,Babylon,andWhitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebodyall have potential, as does the expansion ofThe Whale,Avatar: The Way of Waterremains the major box office story of this weekend and many weekends to come.James Cameron’sexpensive sci-fi epic certainly needs strong holds after its $134 million opening to recoup what is said to be a Pandora-sized budget (Variety is pegging it at $350 million, andCameronclaims the break-even point is upwards of $2 billion worldwide), and only time will tell if it gets there. Through Tuesday it is at $169 million domestic and $556 million worldwide, and a good comp for the weekend isRogue One: A Star Wars Story,which led the box office the last time Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2016. That film similarly opened the pre-Christmas weekend, and it launched to a tune of $155 million before a 59% decline brought it to $64 million for its second weekend and $96.1 million for the Friday through Monday (December 23-26) four-day cume. Such a gross would putAvatar: TWOWat a 52% decline in its second weekend and a cume approaching $300 million by Monday.
Given the weekend placement of Christmas Eve this year, the sophomore weekend ofAvatar 2will almost surely fall below that of the firstAvatar,which followed up its $77 million opening (which was December 18-20, 2009) with an astonishing $75.6 million second weekend. The sequel should run close to its predecessor on a day-by-day basis though, at least for now, and the weekdays thus far are similar (Avatardid $16.4 million on its first Monday and $16.1 million on its first Tuesday, whileThe Way of Waterrespectively did $16.3 million and $18.3 million). Of course,TWOWopened much larger so these are steeper drops from the weekend, but they’re still great numbers by normal movie standards. The film’s first Monday is the year’s second best afterTop Gun: Maverick($33.8 million, and note that was Memorial Day), and the Tuesday gross is the year’s best. These weekday numbers are running closely alongsideRogue One’s$17.6 million gross from both its first Monday and Tuesday.
Avatar 2’sreal box office story will be revealed some weeks down the line.Avatarfinished its third weekend (which was January 1-3) with $352 million, and then it doubled that and still kept going for nearly $50 million more. Compare this to last year’s stratospheric box office ofSpider-Man: No Way Home,which webbed in $614 million in its first three weekends and then “only” grossed $191 million more.The Way of Waterhas a good chance of finishing the year ahead of where the firstAvatarwas, but the question is how well it can hold compared to the first film as the weeks and months roll on. Few would expect it to perform as well as the first film, which was the highest grossing of all time domestically (it is now fourth) and is still the highest worldwide (when counting re-releases), and even under performing the first by 25% would make it the 13th biggest domestic grosser of all time and fourth highest grosser worldwide. Internationally it faces some hurdles vis a vis the first film, notably that the China market is taking a beating from Covid and that the film won’t release in Russia (combined those two markets contributed nearly $320 million to the originalAvatar), but the overseas numbers are still a major driver here and it could cross $1 billion worldwide by the end of the year if not shortly after, becoming just the fourth film since the start of the pandemic to do so.
The most notable of the newcomers is another long-in-the-waiting sequel. DreamWorks Animations’Puss in Boots: The Last Wishcomes 11 years afterShrek-spinoffPuss in Bootsand hits 4,000+ theaters. Now the sequel, which opened Wednesday and brings backAntonio BanderasandSalma Hayekto voice Puss in Boots and Kitty Softpaws respectively, plays this season’sSing 2.That animated sequel opened on the Wednesday before Christmas last year, five days after the release ofNo Way Home,and it was a reliable wing-man asSpideytore up box office records. The box office onSing 2($163 million domestic and $408 million worldwide) andPuss in Boots($149 million domestic and $555 million worldwide) suggest whereThe Last Wishcould end up, though those are optimistic comps.Puss in Bootsopened to $34.1 million back in October 2011, whileSing 2opened to a $22.3 million three-day (held back by Christmas Eve falling on Friday) and $39.6 million Wed-Sun opening a year ago. The cume from the 25 international markets whereThe Last Wishopened earlier this month is an unremarkable $18.8 million so far, but the good news is that the $80 million budget is much smaller than the first film’s $130 million. More good news is that audiences love the film, giving it an A CinemaScore ahead of the first film’s A-, and critics have also given it the stamp of approval with its 96% Tomatometer, ahead of the first film’s 86%.
Another $80 million budgeted film, but a much tougher sell with general audiences, is the 3+ hour period dramaBabylon.Damien Chazelledirects andBrad PittandMargot Robbiestar in this tale of Hollywood as it transitions from the silent to sound eras. It’s hard not to think of the recent star-studded period filmAmsterdam,which also co-starredMargot Robbieand also cost $80 million, but that ended up as one of the year’s biggest flops after it opened it October, grossing a scant $14.9 million domestic and $31.2 million worldwide. Paramount’sBabylon,which bows in 3,342 theaters, fortunately looks to avert such a disastrous result, but unfortunately it looks more likeChazelle’sownFirst Manwhich grossed $44.9 million domestically and $106 million worldwide than it does the filmmaker’s previous Hollywood sagaLa La Landwhich was a smash with $151 million domestic and $471 million worldwide. Reviews are mixed (60% on Rotten Tomatoes), which can hurt considering it’s a prestige film with a lengthy runtime.
The other wide release hitting screens Friday isWhitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebodyfrom Sony/TriStar. The film looks like it will have a tough time grossing an adequate amount relative to its $45 million price tag, with last year’sAretha FranklinbiopicRespect(which tallied just $24.3 million domestic and $32.9 million worldwide) being a better comp than the hit musical biopics of recent years such asElvis,Rocketman,andBohemian Rhapsody.
In the specialty box office,The Whale’sroughly 600 theater expansion is one to keep an eye on. From just six theaters, the A24 release has grossed $596k through its second weekend with the highest theater average of any film this year, and now it sees if the fever for the film can continue as it opens nationwide. TheDarren Aronofsky-directed story of an extremely obese man reconnecting with his estranged daughter is a comeback film forBrendan Fraserwho is an Oscar frontrunner for Best Actor, and while many Oscar hopefuls have been sluggish at the box office, there is hope that this film bucks the trend. Also notable in the specialty box office is the limited opening ofWomen Talkingfrom United Artists Releasing. This highly acclaimed (89% on RT) drama from writer/directorSarah PolleystarsRooney Mara,Claire Foy,Jessie Buckley,Judith Ivey,Ben Whishaw,andFrances McDormand.
While the newcomersPuss in Boots: The Last Wish,Babylon,andWhitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebodyall have potential, as does the expansion ofThe Whale,Avatar: The Way of Waterremains the major box office story of this weekend and many weekends to come.James Cameron’sexpensive sci-fi epic certainly needs strong holds after its $134 million opening to recoup what is said to be a Pandora-sized budget (Variety is pegging it at $350 million, andCameronclaims the break-even point is upwards of $2 billion worldwide), and only time will tell if it gets there. Through Tuesday it is at $169 million domestic and $556 million worldwide, and a good comp for the weekend isRogue One: A Star Wars Story,which led the box office the last time Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2016. That film similarly opened the pre-Christmas weekend, and it launched to a tune of $155 million before a 59% decline brought it to $64 million for its second weekend and $96.1 million for the Friday through Monday (December 23-26) four-day cume. Such a gross would putAvatar: TWOWat a 52% decline in its second weekend and a cume approaching $300 million by Monday.
Given the weekend placement of Christmas Eve this year, the sophomore weekend ofAvatar 2will almost surely fall below that of the firstAvatar,which followed up its $77 million opening (which was December 18-20, 2009) with an astonishing $75.6 million second weekend. The sequel should run close to its predecessor on a day-by-day basis though, at least for now, and the weekdays thus far are similar (Avatardid $16.4 million on its first Monday and $16.1 million on its first Tuesday, whileThe Way of Waterrespectively did $16.3 million and $18.3 million). Of course,TWOWopened much larger so these are steeper drops from the weekend, but they’re still great numbers by normal movie standards. The film’s first Monday is the year’s second best afterTop Gun: Maverick($33.8 million, and note that was Memorial Day), and the Tuesday gross is the year’s best. These weekday numbers are running closely alongsideRogue One’s$17.6 million gross from both its first Monday and Tuesday.
Avatar 2’sreal box office story will be revealed some weeks down the line.Avatarfinished its third weekend (which was January 1-3) with $352 million, and then it doubled that and still kept going for nearly $50 million more. Compare this to last year’s stratospheric box office ofSpider-Man: No Way Home,which webbed in $614 million in its first three weekends and then “only” grossed $191 million more.The Way of Waterhas a good chance of finishing the year ahead of where the firstAvatarwas, but the question is how well it can hold compared to the first film as the weeks and months roll on. Few would expect it to perform as well as the first film, which was the highest grossing of all time domestically (it is now fourth) and is still the highest worldwide (when counting re-releases), and even under performing the first by 25% would make it the 13th biggest domestic grosser of all time and fourth highest grosser worldwide. Internationally it faces some hurdles vis a vis the first film, notably that the China market is taking a beating from Covid and that the film won’t release in Russia (combined those two markets contributed nearly $320 million to the originalAvatar), but the overseas numbers are still a major driver here and it could cross $1 billion worldwide by the end of the year if not shortly after, becoming just the fourth film since the start of the pandemic to do so.
The most notable of the newcomers is another long-in-the-waiting sequel. DreamWorks Animations’Puss in Boots: The Last Wishcomes 11 years afterShrek-spinoffPuss in Bootsand hits 4,000+ theaters. Now the sequel, which opened Wednesday and brings backAntonio BanderasandSalma Hayekto voice Puss in Boots and Kitty Softpaws respectively, plays this season’sSing 2.That animated sequel opened on the Wednesday before Christmas last year, five days after the release ofNo Way Home,and it was a reliable wing-man asSpideytore up box office records. The box office onSing 2($163 million domestic and $408 million worldwide) andPuss in Boots($149 million domestic and $555 million worldwide) suggest whereThe Last Wishcould end up, though those are optimistic comps.Puss in Bootsopened to $34.1 million back in October 2011, whileSing 2opened to a $22.3 million three-day (held back by Christmas Eve falling on Friday) and $39.6 million Wed-Sun opening a year ago. The cume from the 25 international markets whereThe Last Wishopened earlier this month is an unremarkable $18.8 million so far, but the good news is that the $80 million budget is much smaller than the first film’s $130 million. More good news is that audiences love the film, giving it an A CinemaScore ahead of the first film’s A-, and critics have also given it the stamp of approval with its 96% Tomatometer, ahead of the first film’s 86%.
Another $80 million budgeted film, but a much tougher sell with general audiences, is the 3+ hour period dramaBabylon.Damien Chazelledirects andBrad PittandMargot Robbiestar in this tale of Hollywood as it transitions from the silent to sound eras. It’s hard not to think of the recent star-studded period filmAmsterdam,which also co-starredMargot Robbieand also cost $80 million, but that ended up as one of the year’s biggest flops after it opened it October, grossing a scant $14.9 million domestic and $31.2 million worldwide. Paramount’sBabylon,which bows in 3,342 theaters, fortunately looks to avert such a disastrous result, but unfortunately it looks more likeChazelle’sownFirst Manwhich grossed $44.9 million domestically and $106 million worldwide than it does the filmmaker’s previous Hollywood sagaLa La Landwhich was a smash with $151 million domestic and $471 million worldwide. Reviews are mixed (60% on Rotten Tomatoes), which can hurt considering it’s a prestige film with a lengthy runtime.
The other wide release hitting screens Friday isWhitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebodyfrom Sony/TriStar. The film looks like it will have a tough time grossing an adequate amount relative to its $45 million price tag, with last year’sAretha FranklinbiopicRespect(which tallied just $24.3 million domestic and $32.9 million worldwide) being a better comp than the hit musical biopics of recent years such asElvis,Rocketman,andBohemian Rhapsody.
In the specialty box office,The Whale’sroughly 600 theater expansion is one to keep an eye on. From just six theaters, the A24 release has grossed $596k through its second weekend with the highest theater average of any film this year, and now it sees if the fever for the film can continue as it opens nationwide. TheDarren Aronofsky-directed story of an extremely obese man reconnecting with his estranged daughter is a comeback film forBrendan Fraserwho is an Oscar frontrunner for Best Actor, and while many Oscar hopefuls have been sluggish at the box office, there is hope that this film bucks the trend. Also notable in the specialty box office is the limited opening ofWomen Talkingfrom United Artists Releasing. This highly acclaimed (89% on RT) drama from writer/directorSarah PolleystarsRooney Mara,Claire Foy,Jessie Buckley,Judith Ivey,Ben Whishaw,andFrances McDormand.
