‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ To Rule In 2nd Weekend, Counterprogramming ‘The Menu’ & ‘She Said’ Expected To Open Soft
The overall box office last weekend was $209 million, with 87% of that coming fromBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $181 million opening. This weekend will be dominated once again by theMCUfilm, which has a good shot of topping the charts untilAvatar: The Way of Wateropens on December 16. The main question is how well it will hold and how much it can prop up an otherwise weak box office, which saw no other film even make it to the double digits last weekend, an unfortunate stat that is likely to be repeated this weekend (in better times, the second weekend on the firstBlack Pantherhad three other films above $10 million). This weekend’s overall box office has a chance of staying above $100 million, but that would require a “better than the usual blockbuster” hold fromWakanda Forever.A 60% drop for the sequel would put it at $72.5 million this weekend, which is reasonable to expect, and in that scenario the rest of the box office would have a hard time lifting the overall numbers up into the nine digits, barring any surprises from the newcomers.
The hope is thatWakanda Foreverholds much better than this year’s previousMCUfilmsDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of MadnessandThor: Love and Thunder(which both dropped 67-68% in their second weekends), even if it doesn’t prove as durable as the firstBlack Panther(down just 45% in its second weekend, which is good for any film and especially great for such a huge opener, ranking as the second best weekend two hold ever for a film to open above $150 million and the fourth best grossing second weekend). A drop of 53% would be enough to giveWakanda Foreverthe tenth best second weekend gross ever with roughly $85.2 million, but as great as that would be, it seems like a long shot.
If it drops akin to recentMCUofferings, that would be a roughly $60 million second weekend which feels like a worst case scenario, but that would still give it a 10 day cume in the high $200s which is a great spread, even if it’s not enough to save the overall box office. As of TuesdayWakanda Foreverhas a gross of $205 million, and there’s a small chance that by Sunday it will become the year’s sixth film to cross $300 million, which would make it the fastest to do so of any film this year (so farTop Gun: Maverickholds that claim with 11 days) and tie it for 12th on the all time fastest list (the firstBlack Pantheris tied for fifth, getting there in just eight days). It’s more likely that it will get there during the week, but it could tieMaverickfor the year’s fastest or tie for second along withMultiverse of Madnessif it gets there in 12 days.
Joining the fray this weekend are some smaller titles, though don’t expect much from the counter-programming. Searchlight has the most potential with their fine dining genre filmThe Menu,which marks the widest release ever for the label with 3,100 theaters. The film starsAnya Taylor-JoyandNicholas Houltas diners at a high end restaurant where the chef (Ralph Fiennes) has something more sinister in mind than simply feeding his customers. A comp here is Searchlight’s 2019 releaseReady or Not,which opened to $8 million and stretched out to $28.7 million. Critics loveThe Menu(91% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the other genre fare in theaters has largely run its course, so it could have a solid run. Less is expected fromShe Said,which Universal is bringing to 2000 theaters. The film starsCarey MulliganandZoe Kazanas New York Times journalists Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor who reported on Harvey Weinstein’s history of sexual misconduct. An optimistic comp here would beBombshell,which grossed $5.1 million in its first wide weekend (from 1,480 theaters) and went on to gross $31.8 million, but that had more star power and perhaps a wider appeal in its content and lighter tone. Reviews are great (86% on Rotten Tomatoes) and there is some awards buzz particularly for its leads, so hopefully this $32 million budgeted drama can find its audience.
Also in the mix is the five theater New York and Los Angeles launch ofLuca Guadagnino’sromantic cannibal thrillerBones and All.The United Artists Releasing film starsTaylor Russell,Timothée Chalamet,andMark Rylanceand expands next Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving.
The hope is thatWakanda Foreverholds much better than this year’s previousMCUfilmsDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of MadnessandThor: Love and Thunder(which both dropped 67-68% in their second weekends), even if it doesn’t prove as durable as the firstBlack Panther(down just 45% in its second weekend, which is good for any film and especially great for such a huge opener, ranking as the second best weekend two hold ever for a film to open above $150 million and the fourth best grossing second weekend). A drop of 53% would be enough to giveWakanda Foreverthe tenth best second weekend gross ever with roughly $85.2 million, but as great as that would be, it seems like a long shot.
If it drops akin to recentMCUofferings, that would be a roughly $60 million second weekend which feels like a worst case scenario, but that would still give it a 10 day cume in the high $200s which is a great spread, even if it’s not enough to save the overall box office. As of TuesdayWakanda Foreverhas a gross of $205 million, and there’s a small chance that by Sunday it will become the year’s sixth film to cross $300 million, which would make it the fastest to do so of any film this year (so farTop Gun: Maverickholds that claim with 11 days) and tie it for 12th on the all time fastest list (the firstBlack Pantheris tied for fifth, getting there in just eight days). It’s more likely that it will get there during the week, but it could tieMaverickfor the year’s fastest or tie for second along withMultiverse of Madnessif it gets there in 12 days.
Joining the fray this weekend are some smaller titles, though don’t expect much from the counter-programming. Searchlight has the most potential with their fine dining genre filmThe Menu,which marks the widest release ever for the label with 3,100 theaters. The film starsAnya Taylor-JoyandNicholas Houltas diners at a high end restaurant where the chef (Ralph Fiennes) has something more sinister in mind than simply feeding his customers. A comp here is Searchlight’s 2019 releaseReady or Not,which opened to $8 million and stretched out to $28.7 million. Critics loveThe Menu(91% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the other genre fare in theaters has largely run its course, so it could have a solid run. Less is expected fromShe Said,which Universal is bringing to 2000 theaters. The film starsCarey MulliganandZoe Kazanas New York Times journalists Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor who reported on Harvey Weinstein’s history of sexual misconduct. An optimistic comp here would beBombshell,which grossed $5.1 million in its first wide weekend (from 1,480 theaters) and went on to gross $31.8 million, but that had more star power and perhaps a wider appeal in its content and lighter tone. Reviews are great (86% on Rotten Tomatoes) and there is some awards buzz particularly for its leads, so hopefully this $32 million budgeted drama can find its audience.
Also in the mix is the five theater New York and Los Angeles launch ofLuca Guadagnino’sromantic cannibal thrillerBones and All.The United Artists Releasing film starsTaylor Russell,Timothée Chalamet,andMark Rylanceand expands next Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving.
