#Modinomics | Fiscal Policy & Union Budget 2024-25: Preview With Dr. Rathin Roy

Watch Business Today TV's Managing Editor, Siddharth Zarabi, in conversation with Dr. Rathin Roy, former member of the PMEAC and Ex-Director & CEO of NIPFP as they explore the macroeconomic landscape of the Union Budget, set to be unveiled on July 23, and discuss the outlook for India's fiscal policy in FY25 and provide insights into India's fiscal policy outlook. For 2023-24, the government's fiscal deficit was recorded at 5.63% of GDP, slightly below the 5.8% forecasted in the Union Budget. This translated to a fiscal deficit of ₹16.53 lakh crore. The revised estimates for 2023-24 projected the fiscal deficit at ₹17.34 lakh crore, equating to 5.8% of GDP, as declared by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the interim Budget presented on February 1, 2024. The total expenditure incurred by the central government was ₹44,42,542 crore (98.9 per cent of corresponding RE of 2023-24), of which ₹34,94,036 crore was on revenue account and ₹9,48,506 crore on capital account. Out of the total revenue expenditure, ₹10,63,871 crore was for interest payments and ₹4,13,542 crore for major subsidies. Notably, the government achieved its revenue collection target, with net tax collections reaching ₹23.26 lakh crore in FY24, while total expenditure amounted to ₹44.42 lakh crore, meeting 101.2% of the revised revenue estimates and 99% of the expenditure estimates. Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, anticipates that the central government will maintain a fiscal deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for FY25, in alignment with the interim budget. The bank also suggests that fiscal prudence, increased capital expenditure for job creation, and targeted social sector spending will be central themes of the Budget. Moreover, they predict a potential slight reduction in the fiscal deficit target due to robust tax and non-tax revenues. India's GDP growth rate was 7.8% for the quarter ending March 31, 2024, with an overall growth rate of 8.2% for FY24, up from 7% in FY23. Don't miss this insightful analysis on Business Today TV!

What Can Budget 2024-25 Do For India’s Housing Sector?

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to unveil the full budget for 2024 on July 23rd. The real estate sector eagerly anticipates reforms aimed at benefiting not only the sector but to taxpayers and people who seeks affordable house. This sector holds significant economic importance, generating numerous jobs and making substantial contributions to the GDP. In 2024, the Indian real estate market continues to expand, buoyed by positive market sentiments, economic growth, urbanization, evolving lifestyles, increasing disposable incomes, enhanced job prospects, heightened business activities, and supportive government policies. Consequently, the upcoming budget is poised to introduce initiatives aimed at fortifying this pivotal economic sector. Anticipations include potential increases in rebates on home loan interest rates, reductions in GST rates, establishment of single-window clearance systems, lowering of property prices, and promotion of development in peripheral areas. The real estate sector is advocating for impactful measures such as special schemes and tax incentives for developers to revitalize the affordable housing segment, which has faced challenges since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is in contrast to the robust demand witnessed for larger and more expensive homes. This call for action coincides with the government's consultation with industry stakeholders ahead of presenting the General Budget in Parliament next month. Explore how Budget 2024-25 could shape the landscape for real estate, discussing potential allocations, tax reforms, and policy implications that could impact developers, investors, and homebuyers alike. Gain insights into key trends, challenges, and opportunities in the sector as these experts share their forecasts and strategic perspectives. Also Goldman Sachs, the investment bank has said India’s infrastructure upgrades have created long-term positive growth spillovers, which policymakers may not be willing to give up. Goldman Sachs believes the Budget will go beyond just fiscal numbers, and likely make an overarching statement about long-term economic policy of the government towards 2047. In the housing sector, it noted that 26 million houses have been built under the rural housing scheme since 2016. It sees Budget's focus on slum redevelopment in major cities, reduce regulatory costs (registration), regulatory reforms enabling automatic approvals and clean drinking water for households in rural and urban areas. Join BTTV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in a compelling discussion on the future of the realty sector amidst Budget 2024-25. In this exclusive panel, Siddharth Zarabi engages with industry stalwarts including Dr. Niranjan Hiranandani, Founder & Chairman, Hiranandani Group; Gulam Zia, Senior ED, Knight Frank India; and Dhruv Agarwala, Group CEO, Housing.com & PropTiger.com. Don't miss this deep dive into the intersection of policy and real estate with insights from industry leaders who are shaping the future of housing and infrastructure development in India.

What Can Budget 2024-25 Do For India’s Agriculture?

Farmer’s welfare and boosting rural demand was one of the main highlights of interim budget 2024-25 presented by Union Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on February 1.The Finance Minister had said that every year, under PM-KISAN SAMMAN Yojana, direct financial assistance is provided to 11.8 crore farmers, including marginal and small farmers, while crop insurance is given to 4 crore farmers under PM Fasal Bima Yojana. She stated that these, besides several other programmes, are assisting ‘Annadata’ in producing food for the country and the world and added that the worries about food have been eliminated through free ration for 80 crore people. The interim budget 2024-25 had promised for stepping up value addition in agricultural sector and boosting of farmers’ income, promote private and public investment in post-harvest activities including aggregation, modern storage, efficient supply chains, primary and secondary processing and marketing and branding to ensure faster growth of the agriculture and food processing sector. According to the quarterly estimates for the fourth quarter (Jan-Mar), India’s real GDP growth accelerated to 7.8 per cent in Q4FY2023-24. Real GVA growth accelerated to 6.3 per cent in Q4 of FY2023-24. Industrial sector growth accelerated to 8.4 per cent and Services sector to 6.7 per cent. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sectors grew to 0.6per cent in Q4 of FY2023-24. Credit for agriculture and allied activities expanded by 19.7 percent compared to 20 percent in March 2024.

Explained: The Impact Of Indian Govt Bonds Inclusion In The JP Morgan Index

The Indian government debt market stands at a cornerstone of the nation’s financial landscape, serving as a vital avenue for raising capital and facilitating investment. Understanding its size and constituent elements provide crucial insights into the broader economic landscape and investment opportunities. Of late, fixed income has been gaining traction amongst all retail investors amid the announcement of inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan and Bloomberg Global Emerging Market Indices and S&P upgrading India’s credit rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. JP Morgan has said that 29 government bonds under the fully accessible route meet its criteria for inclusion on the Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets suite on Friday, June 28. The 7.04%, 2029 bond and the 7.02%, 2031 bond have been added to a list of 27 bonds listed in a client note earlier this month. Indian government bonds will be included on the Global Diversified Index with a one per cent weight on Friday, rising to a maximum of 10 per cent in a staggered manner by March 2025. Bonds with an outstanding duration of over 2.5 years and face value of over $1 bln are eligible for index inclusion. While market value will be calculated during the inclusion, the 7.18%, 2033 bond is likely to have the highest individual weight. According to Reserve Bank of India data, index-eligible bonds with 0-5 years of maturity have an outstanding of 6.29 trln rupees, with 5-10 years maturity having 15.42 trln rupees of outstanding and with greater than 10 years maturity having 13.18 trln rupees of outstanding. Join BTTV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Vishal Goenka, Co-Founder of IndiaBonds.com. Goenka shares his insights on the debt market, types of fixed income instruments, future expectations, and more. He mentioned that $25-30 billion in inflows are expected with the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan EM Bond Index.

Will India See Bold Economic Policies In Modi 3.0?

S&P Raises India Outlook: What Does S&P Upgrade Mean For India?

S&P Global has sparked hopes for a long-awaited sovereign ratings upgrade for India by raising its country outlook to positive from stable after 14 years. The global rating agency cited India's sound economic fundamentals, robust growth momentum, and government spending as reasons for the decision, while keeping its sovereign credit ratings unchanged at 'BBB-/A-3'. S&P mentioned that cautious fiscal and monetary policies could lead to an improvement in ratings over the next two years. “The positive outlook reflects our view that continued policy stability, deepening economic reforms, and high infrastructure investment will sustain long-term growth prospects. Additionally, a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that reduces the government's elevated debt and interest burden while enhancing economic resilience could lead to a higher rating within the next 24 months," the rating agency stated.

Gourav Vallabh: GST Rate Rationalization Expected Within Months

Professor Gourav Vallabh from the BJP has stated, "I do not have any insider information, not as a BJP worker, but as an economist, I can say that the GST rate rationalization was delayed due to elections. I am very sure that the rate rationalization of GST will happen in the next 3-4 months under the Modi government." Rate rationalization entails the possibility of reassigning items across different tax slabs.

Is There A Billionaire Raj In India? Truth Vs Hype

Recent debates on income and wealth inequality in India have gained momentum, spurred by the release of “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj,” which reveals record-high economic disparities. According to a report by the World Inequality Lab, India's growing inequality could be addressed through a comprehensive and progressive wealth tax package targeting the ultra-rich. The follow-up report, authored by economists Nitin Kumar Bharti, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchi, shows that the wealth share of India’s richest 1% is at its highest in history. The proposed tax package aims to address this massive wealth concentration and create fiscal space for critical social sector investments. An annual wealth tax and inheritance tax on net wealth exceeding INR 10 crores (approximately EUR 3.4 million PPP or EUR 1.2 million MER), targeting the top 0.04% of the adult population (~370,000 adults), who hold over a quarter of the total wealth. The tax would raise substantial revenues, affecting only 0.04% of the population. A 2% annual tax on wealth exceeding INR 10 crores and a 33% inheritance tax on estates over INR 10 crores could generate 2.73% of GDP in revenue. These measures must be accompanied by explicit redistributive policies to support the poor, lower castes, and middle classes. For example, this revenue could nearly double public spending on education, which has stagnated at 2.9% of GDP over the past 15 years, far below the 6% target set by the National Education Policy 2020 (NEP 2020). Can a Wealth Tax Reduce Inequality? watch BTTV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Nitin Kumar Bharti, Coordinator for South and South East Asia, World Inequality Lab and Professor Gourav Vallabh from the BJP.

Senior Advocate Vikas Pahwa: Market Value Of ED Seizures 10 Times Their Book Value

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said he is seeking legal advice on how to return black money to India's poor. In an exclusive interview with the India Today Group, the prime minister expressed a commitment to enact reforms to combat corruption effectively, with a focus on distributing seized wealth to victims. He stated that Rs 17,000 crore of the Rs 1.25 lakh crore of seized money has already been returned.Senior Supreme Court advocate Vikas Pahwa, however, claims the market value of seized assets would be 10 times the stated Rs 1.25 lakh crore. "Most seized properties are calculated based on book value. For example, properties purchased in the 70s, 80s, or 90s are valued at much older rates. The current market value would be at least 10 times higher,". Pahwa calls the Rs 1.25 lakh crore figure conservative. "Once trials are concluded, the central government will have significantly more funds if we consider the market value of the properties."

What Lies Behind India’s Rising Female Voter Turnout In Lok Sabha Elections 2024

Most constituencies that went to the polls in the first four phases of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections saw more women voting than in the 2019 general election, as per an SBI research report. The net incremental share of women voters in this period is reported at 93.6 lakh, significantly higher than the increase of 84.7 lakh in the participation of their male counterparts. The report attributes this increase in women's participation to the significant ground-level impact of three women-centric schemes: Ujjwala Yojana, Matru Vandana Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana, particularly in rural areas. An interesting observation from the study is the structural shift evident in voter turnout patterns and electoral outcomes at select intervals, which have decisively defined Indian politics over the last three decades. The 1996 elections and the 2014 election reveal the structural change; while in 1996, it was in terms of the number of electorates, in 2024, the structural break came in the form of increased women voter turnout. For the three successive elections beginning in 2014, 2019, and in 2024, the average incremental voter turnout is a whopping 8 crores, which is four times higher than the average incremental voter turnout of 2 crores for the 15 elections held before 2014. To understand voting trends and more, watch BTTV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder-Director, C-Voter and Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI.

Titagarh Rail Eyes Significant Growth in Passenger Rail Systems

Prithish Chowdhary, Deputy MD of Titagarh Rail Systems, shares the company's ambitious 5-Year Growth Outlook. He highlights a significant potential for growth in passenger rail systems, predicting a sharp increase in this segment. Within a few years, 65% of Titagarh's total revenue is expected to come from passenger rail systems, a major shift from the current revenue mix, which is predominantly driven by the freight segment. This strategic focus marks a pivotal change in Titagarh Rail’s business approach, positioning the company for robust growth in the passenger rail market.

#SabseSolidPMInterview: How Does PM Modi Plan To Return Money Seized By ED To The Poor

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said he is seeking legal advice on how to return black money back to India's poor. In an exclusive interview to the India Today Group, the prime minister expressed a commitment to enact reforms to combat corruption effectively, with a focus on distributing seized wealth to victims. The prime minister said Rs 17,000 crore of the Rs 1.25 lakh crore of seized money has already been returned. Real estate constitutes nearly 80% of the value of the seized assets. Senior Supreme Court advocate Vikas Pahwa, however, says the market value of seized assets would be 10 times the stated Rs 1.25 lakh crore. "Majority of them (seized properties) are calculated on the basis of book value. Say a property is purchased in the 70s, 80s or 90s, what I have seen is the value given in the sale deed may be very, very old. So the value of a property purchased then would at least 10 times," he told BTTV. Pahwa cited an example of a house confiscated in one of Delhi's posh areas, which had a book value of around Rs 10-20 lakh when its actual market price was around Rs 30 crore. "If that property is sold in the market, it would say fetch 10% less than the market value then also it will be around Rs 28-29 crore but what is shown in the provisional attachment order is only Rs 10-20 lakh." Pahwa calls the figure of Rs 1.25 lakh crore conservative. "The moment we are able to achieve the disposal of trial, see the kind of money which will be at the central government's disposal if we calculate the market value of the property".

Titagarh Rail Rockets 273% In A Year—Will Rally Continue?

Multibagger stock Titagarh Rail Systems shares skyrocketed over 170% in the last year. Brokerage houses are bullish on the stock. Nuvama's target price suggests a further 22% upside, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a 28% earnings CAGR from FY24 to FY27 for Titagarh. The wagons and coaches manufacturer logged a 64% year-on-year (YoY) surge in profit, reaching Rs 79 crore in the March quarter, up from Rs 48 crore YoY. Revenue from operations climbed 8% to Rs 1,052 crore in the March quarter, compared to Rs 974 crore in the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin rose by 160 basis points YoY to 11.4%, aided by operating leverage. The Board of Titagarh also declared a dividend of Rs 0.80 per share along with the quarterly results. The company ended the quarter with an order book of Rs 28,100 crore, of which Rs 14,800 crore is to be executed over the next three to five years. Titagarh Rail Systems, a leading manufacturer of railway freight wagons in the private sector, is rapidly diversifying into passenger rail systems, including the development of driverless metro trains. A critical supplier to Indian Railways, the Kolkata-based company's operations have expanded to keep up with its diversification. This includes the manufacture of Vande Bharat train sets, metro coaches, and propulsion systems in the passenger railway segment. Watch BTTV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Prithish Chowdhary, Deputy MD, Titagarh Rail Systems.

Exclusive: Jim Rogers' Preferred Sectors In The Indian Equities Market And On Valuations

Business Today Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in an exclusive conversation with Commodity Guru Jim Rogers, discusses the valuation of the Indian stock market and his investment strategy. Rogers believes that if the government continues to develop and fulfil all its promises, Indian markets will make fortunes in the future, not just in gold and silver but also in equities. He also shares his preferred sector in the Indian equity market. Here’s an excerpt from that conversation.

World Gold Council: There Is Still Potential For Gold Prices To Rise

In this engaging discussion between Siddharth Zarabi, Managing Editor of Business Today TV, and Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Head of Research at the World Gold Council, viewers gain invaluable insights into the current state of the gold market. Artigas highlights the ongoing potential for gold prices to rise, shedding light on key factors influencing its trajectory. With expert analysis and informed perspectives, this conversation navigates the complexities of gold investment, offering viewers a nuanced understanding of whether it's the opportune time to buy or wait.

Exclusive: World Gold Council On The Reasons For Gold Rush

China’s central bank purchased gold for its reserves for a 17th straight month in March, extending a buying spree that has helped the precious metal surge to a record. The global price of gold has reached its highest levels as Chinese investors and consumers, wary of real estate and stocks, buy the metal at a record pace. Often considered a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has soared in price in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza. But gold’s climb to highs above $2,400 per ounce has proved more resilient, and lasted longer, because of China. Chinese consumers have flocked to gold as their confidence in traditional investments like real estate or stocks has faltered. At the same time, the country’s central bank has steadily added to its gold reserves, while whittling away at its holdings of U.S. debt. And throwing fuel on the fire are Chinese speculators betting that there is still room for appreciation. China already held considerable sway in gold markets. But the country’s influence has become more pronounced during this latest bull run — a nearly 50 percent increase in the global price since late 2022. It continued to scale new heights despite factors that traditionally make gold a comparatively less appealing investment: higher interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar. Last month, gold prices vaulted higher even after the Federal Reserve signalled that it would keep higher interest rates for longer. And it has continued to appreciate even as the dollar has risen against almost every major currency in the world this year. Prices have pulled back to around $2,300 per ounce, but there is a growing sentiment that the gold market is governed no longer by economic factors but by the whims of Chinese buyers and investors. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Managing Editor Business Today TV, in conversation with Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Head of Research, World Gold Council.

D. Subbarao: CAG’s ₹1.76 Lk Cr 2G Spectrum `Presumptive Loss' Contestable

Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D. Subbarao has raised questions to the Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) estimate of a ₹1.76 lakh crore presumptive loss in the 2G spectrum case. In his recently published book, “Just A Mercenary?: Notes from My Life and Career,” Subbarao delves into his involvement in the decision-making process regarding the pricing of the 2G spectrum. His critical assessment sheds light on the complexities surrounding this high-profile telecom scandal that shook the Congress government at the time.

D. Subbarao: Formula-Based Adjustments Needed To Resolve North-South Divide

Former RBI Governor D. Subbarao delves into the intricate dynamics of the "North vs South" debate, highlighting its political and fiscal facets. He emphasizes the crucial role of enlightened leadership at both central and state levels in addressing the complex issue of tax pool distribution. Subbarao advocates for formula-based adjustments as the path to resolving the north-south disparity, cautioning against abrupt delimitation and advocating for a phased approach instead. Subbarao underscores the imperative of fostering unity and prosperity for India as a whole.

Top Economists' Wishlist On Tax Policy From Next Budget In July

In anticipation of the upcoming full budget in July, leading voices in taxation and economics have articulated their wish list for India's tax policy. Sudhir Kapadia, Senior Partner at EY Tax & Regulatory Services, emphasizes the importance of minimizing uncertainty by maintaining a stable tax regime. This sentiment is echoed by Ved Jain, a prominent tax expert, who suggests that the government should prioritize supporting the manufacturing sector through tax structures that incentivize the establishment of new industries. Rajeev Mantri, an author and venture capital investor, advocates for the implementation of a new direct tax code, addressing outdated aspects to streamline and modernize the tax system. Arun Kumar, Author and former professor of economics at JNU, emphasizes the role of taxation in addressing societal issues such as joblessness, suggesting that the tax policy should be geared towards enabling solutions to these pressing challenges.

Will Inheritance Taxes End Inequality And Aid Economic Growth? Sam Pitroda Sparks New Controversy

Indian Overseas Congress chairperson Sam Pitroda's advocacy for a US-style inheritance tax during an interview stirred controversy amidst Congress's wealth redistribution poll promise. Pitroda's remarks, which were met with criticism from the BJP, prompted the Congress to distance itself from his comments. Defending Congress's stance, Pitroda asserted that wealth redistribution aimed to benefit the populace, not just the affluent. However, his invocation of the inheritance tax in the US reignited the debate, with the BJP alleging Congress's intention for wealth redistribution. This statement by Pitroda brought the issue to the forefront, sparking discussions on the feasibility and impact of inheritance tax in India. The debate now extends to whether inheritance tax could effectively alleviate poverty and its implications for the country's economic landscape. Pitroda's remarks have reignited the conversation on wealth redistribution policies, prompting a deeper examination of their potential outcomes in the Indian context. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Managing Editor of Business Today TV, in conversation with Sudhir Kapadia, Senior Partner, Tax & Regulatory Services, EY, Ved Jain, Tax Expert, Arun Kumar, Author & Former Professor of Economics, JNU and Rajeev Mantri, Author & Venture Capital Investor.

Nestle’s Best Seller Cerelac Has High Sugar Level

A report by a Swiss NGO, Public Eye, and the International Baby Food Action Network (IBFAN) claims that Nestle, a global food and beverage giant, sells baby products with higher sugar content in India, Africa, and Latin America compared to European markets. The report scrutinized around 150 baby products sold in various countries. Samples tested by a Belgian laboratory found that the sugar content exceeded international food safety guidelines. For instance, Nestle's wheat-based product, Cerelac, designed for six-month-old babies, is sold without added sugars in the UK and Germany. However, in India, it contained 2.7 grams of added sugar per serving, with the highest content reaching 6 grams in Thailand. In India, where the sugar content was declared on the packaging, the 15 Cerelac products analyzed had an average of 2.7 grams of added sugar per serving. The report highlighted that in the Philippines, five out of eight samples had the highest sugar content at 7.3 grams, with no information provided on the packaging. A spokesperson for Nestle India responded, stating, “We believe in the nutritional quality of our products for early childhood and prioritize using high-quality ingredients. Over the past five years, Nestlé India has reduced added sugars by up to 30 per cent, depending on the variant, in our infant cereals portfolio (milk cereal-based complementary food). We regularly review our portfolio and continue to innovate and reformulate our products to further reduce the level of added sugars without compromising on quality, safety, and taste.” Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Managing Editor of Business Today TV, in conversation with Dr Arun Gupta, Paediatrician; Convener, Nutrition Advocacy in Public Interest (NAPi), Prof. Bejon Misra, Consumer Policy Expert, KS Narayanan, Principal Consultant – Food Processing Sector, Nexdigm and Revant Himatsingka, Health Influencer