'It took 17 years to come back': Is it time to buy, hold or sell stocks? Analysts react as Sensex hits 80,000

With the Sensex hitting the 80,000 level for the first time and the Nifty 50 crossing 24,300 level in a first, stock investors are wondering whether the recent rally on the two largecap indices would sustain. The 30-pack index has climbed 14,729.98 points, or 22.59 per cent, in the last one year. Nifty, on the other hand, has added 4,969.90 points or 25.72 per cent during the same period, with its 12-month forward P/E ratio rising to 20.2 times now, near its long-term average of 20.3 times.

Nifty's price to book value of 3.3 times represents an 18 per cent premium to its historical average of 2.8 times. Analysts said India is in its own mini-Goldilocks moment but believe certain pockets have turned overvalued and investors should exercise caution..

Nilesh Shah- MD, Kotak Mahindra AMC said Sensex's milestones are a journey and not a destination. "Do remember that this journey is both forward as well as backward. Nasdaq went so backwards that it took 17 years to come back to the previous peak. Invest in the market as per your risk appetite, have a long-term horizon, significantly moderate your return expectations and follow the dharma of asset allocation," he said.

On Wednesday, the 30-pack index hit a record high of 80,074.30. It later settled below the psychological level at 79,986.80, up 545.35 points or 0.69 per cent. Nifty rose 162.65 points, or 0.67 per cent, to 24,286.50 (provisional).

Neelesh Surana, Chief Investment Officer at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) said the Sensex reaching another milestone is logical as stock markets are leading indicators of macro stability and future growth. He said India has strong and sustainable drivers for secular growth, and thus he stays constructive on equities.

"We would advise investors to follow a well-crafted and balanced allocation towards equities, and remain committed preferably via SIP,” he said.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) said India is witnessing its own mini-Goldilocks moment with excellent macros, robust corporate earnings, focus on manufacturing, capex and infrastructure creation, and valuations.

But it felt that sectors with overheated valuations and recent sharp outperformance, viz. industrials, railways, defense, and PSUs may see more moderation in valuations before they become attractive again from a risk-reward perspective.