Topline
President Joe Biden’s highly anticipated interview with ABC News Friday night could be crucial crucial to the 81-year-old candidate’s re-election bid, as the Biden campaign tries to put out the fire from his debate performance last week and some Democrats push for Biden to step down. (Update:Biden tells ABChe had a “bad episode” and “was sick” during the debate.)
Key Facts
Biden’s interview with George Stephanopoulos—which will air in full at 8 p.m. EST—could be one of the most critical in Biden’s entire campaign, as Democrats increasingly question Biden’s advanced age and mental acuity.
Biden acknowledged to allies his upcoming appearances over the July 4 weekend—including the ABC interview—must go well in order for him to stay in the race, TheNew York TimesandCNNreported, citing sources close to the Biden administration (White House senior deputy press secretary Andrew Batesdeniedthe Times report as “absolutely false” ).
Several post-debate polls show Biden slipping against former President Donald Trump, withsizable majoritiesof voters doubting Biden’s mental fitness—a deficit the Biden campaign is looking to reverse with just four months before the election.
The interview could also be a test of Biden’s ability to interview and appear publicly without a teleprompter, and a test of whether he can speak convincingly on the campaign trail and potentially in a second term in office, as his administration and campaign frame his debate performance as a single bad night rather than a symptom of a broader problem with aging.
Since CNN’s debate last Thursday, Biden has admitted he does not “debate as well” as he used to and said he “screwed up”on the debate stage, but has insisted the debate was a one-off flub—though those assurances have not stopped a wave of Democrats and pundits from urging Biden to step down.
Other Democrats have pushed Biden to do more interviews and public appearances: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear toldCNNshould publicly address his health and his debate performance, while Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker told the network Biden “needs to communicate more.”
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Tangent
In its post-debate recovery efforts, the Biden campaign chose ABC News as an outlet for a high-profile debate due to high viewership and because the campaign believes it is less partisan than other outlets, one source told TheNew York Times.The paper notes that Stephanopoulos—a former staffer for President Bill Clinton—has interviewed Biden in the past, including after his withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and during the 2020 Democratic primaries.
Key Background
Biden’s debate performance—characterized by verbal miscues and struggles to answer some questions—has set off alarm in Democratic circles, prompting suggestions that he drop out of the race and allow another Democrat to take the party’s nomination before the convention next month. Over the past week, calls for Biden to drop out of the 2024 race have come frompundits,theeditorialboardsofseveralnewspapers,a group ofmajordonorsand at least two Democraticlawmakers.Other major Democrats have stuck by him, including former presidentsBarack ObamaandBill Clinton,while some lawmakers have publicly backed him while urging him to change course: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in an interview withMSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell it was fair to question whether Biden’s rocky debate presence was the result of only “an episode” or a larger “condition.”
Contra
Biden reportedly told his campaign staff on Wednesday he will not drop out of the race, saying: “I’m in this race to the end.”
What Happens If Biden Drops Out Of The Race?
If Biden steps down as the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19, the party could hold anopen conventionto select a new candidate on the floor of the DNC. Open conventions have not been used since 1968, and have since been replaced by the months-long primary cycle, with each party formally nominating the winning candidate at their respective convention. But the actual play-by-play of replacing Biden remains uncertain and speculative, and Biden could endorse Vice President Kamala Harris or another candidate at the convention. Still, some debates, town halls, or even a “mini primary”—suggested by Biden ally Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.—could be held before the DNC to get a pulse on how voters support each potential replacement.
Who Could Take Biden’s Place As Democratic Nominee?
Top Democrats have begun tocoalescearound Harris as a potential replacement to Biden, suggesting she might have the best chance of defeating Trump, despite her dismal 37% approval rating, according toFiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. Still, several recentpollshave indicated she would have a better chance than Biden at defeating Trump, including a CNN/SRRS poll that put her two points behind Trump (45%-47%). Those polls also put her above Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former First Lady Michelle Obama, who have allpushed backagainst rumors of presidential bids. Trump’s lead over Biden, meanwhile, has reached arecord highin the week after the CNN debate, with a Times/Sienapollgiving Trump a 49%-43% lead in a head-to-head matchup and a 42%-36% lead in asurveyby The Wall Street Journal (that survey also included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party choices).