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Rob’s 2023 Year in Books
Take a look at Rob’s Year in Books. The long, the short—it’s all here.
Rob J. Hyndman’s Followers (8)
420 books
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17 friends
28 books
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12 friends
1,358 books
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78 friends
613 books
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12 friends
11 books
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10 friends
2 books
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7 friends
611 books
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8 friends
568 books
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92 friends
More friends…
Rob J. Hyndman
Goodreads Author
Born
in Melbourne, Australia
Website
Twitter
Member Since
September 2011
URL
https://www.goodreads.com/robjhyndman
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Forecasting: principles and practice
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published
2013
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9 editions
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Forecasting: Methods & Applications
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published
1973
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18 editions
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Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach (Springer Series in Statistics)
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published
2008
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7 editions
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Unbelievable
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published
2015
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Forecasting: Methods and Applications
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Rob Hyndman
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“Cruel randomness
[...]
Besides, if God really was selecting people to protect on the basis of some bigger picture, then you would not expect the number of people who are killed in various ways to be subject to the rules of probability. However, I can predict with remarkable accuracy the road toll each year, the number of people who will be struck by lightning, the number of people who will be killed by shark attacks, and so on. Each of these causes of death has a certain rate of occurrence that is quite predictable.
It is not just the number of deaths that is predictable, it is the whole probability distribution of deaths that is predictable. If you know the average number of deaths by car accidents in a city, then it is possible to calculate all the percentiles for that city. For example, you can estimate the numbers of deaths that would be exceeded only once every ten years. When you do this for many cities, you find that the 1-in-10-year extremes are exceeded in approximately 10% of cities each year. This is exactly what you would expect if the world was random, but not what you would expect if anyone was in control.
Car accidents, diseases, and industrial accidents all follow the same probability distribution, known as the “Poisson distribution”. The Poisson probability distribution is based on the assumption that accidents happen randomly. It is simply not possible for tragedies to appear to follow the Poisson probability distribution while actually being controlled by God. Any interventions of God that interfere in the random processes would be detectable. If they are not detectable, then they are random and God is not involved.
If we accept that the world is random, and that bad things happen to everyone by chance, where does that leave God? Either he does not exist, or he has no power, or he does not care. Whichever of those answers you prefer, God does not deserve our thanks.”
― Unbelievable
[...]
Besides, if God really was selecting people to protect on the basis of some bigger picture, then you would not expect the number of people who are killed in various ways to be subject to the rules of probability. However, I can predict with remarkable accuracy the road toll each year, the number of people who will be struck by lightning, the number of people who will be killed by shark attacks, and so on. Each of these causes of death has a certain rate of occurrence that is quite predictable.
It is not just the number of deaths that is predictable, it is the whole probability distribution of deaths that is predictable. If you know the average number of deaths by car accidents in a city, then it is possible to calculate all the percentiles for that city. For example, you can estimate the numbers of deaths that would be exceeded only once every ten years. When you do this for many cities, you find that the 1-in-10-year extremes are exceeded in approximately 10% of cities each year. This is exactly what you would expect if the world was random, but not what you would expect if anyone was in control.
Car accidents, diseases, and industrial accidents all follow the same probability distribution, known as the “Poisson distribution”. The Poisson probability distribution is based on the assumption that accidents happen randomly. It is simply not possible for tragedies to appear to follow the Poisson probability distribution while actually being controlled by God. Any interventions of God that interfere in the random processes would be detectable. If they are not detectable, then they are random and God is not involved.
If we accept that the world is random, and that bad things happen to everyone by chance, where does that leave God? Either he does not exist, or he has no power, or he does not care. Whichever of those answers you prefer, God does not deserve our thanks.”
― Unbelievable
“Jethro was the “priest of Midian” and the father-in-law of Moses (Exodus 3:1; 4:18). He was also called “Reuel” (Exodus 2:18) and is described as a Midianite in Numbers 10:29.
The original Midianites were probably descendants of Midian, one of Abraham’s sons by Keturah (Genesis 25:1-4). The land where they lived then became known as “Midian” (Exodus 2:15). It is likely that the people who lived in the land of Midian were then all called Midianites, even if they were not descendants of Midian. For example, some descendants of Ishmael appear to be called Midianites (Genesis 37:25,28; Judges 8:24).
We don’t know whether Jethro was a descendant of Midian, or whether he had some other ancestry but lived in the land of Midian.
In Judges 1:16, Jethro is described as a “Kenite” but that may not relate directly to his ancestry. The word keni in Aramaic means “smith” and it is thought that the Kenites may have been metal workers.”
―
The original Midianites were probably descendants of Midian, one of Abraham’s sons by Keturah (Genesis 25:1-4). The land where they lived then became known as “Midian” (Exodus 2:15). It is likely that the people who lived in the land of Midian were then all called Midianites, even if they were not descendants of Midian. For example, some descendants of Ishmael appear to be called Midianites (Genesis 37:25,28; Judges 8:24).
We don’t know whether Jethro was a descendant of Midian, or whether he had some other ancestry but lived in the land of Midian.
In Judges 1:16, Jethro is described as a “Kenite” but that may not relate directly to his ancestry. The word keni in Aramaic means “smith” and it is thought that the Kenites may have been metal workers.”
―
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