Abstract
Extreme high temperature (EHT) events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change, especially for China, a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds (1.5°C–5°C). The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5°C/2°C before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels (1861–1900) under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5- 8.5), and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. Under SSP5-8.5, global warming will eventually exceed 5°C by 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, it will stabilize around 2°C after 2050. In China, most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China (Northwest China, North China and Northeast China), covering 50%–70% of the country. Furthermore, about 0.19–0.44 billion people (accounting for 16%–41% of the national population) will experience warming above the global average. Compared to present-day (1995–2014), the warmest day (TXx) will increase most notably in northern China, while the number of warm days (TX90p) and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) will increase most profoundly in southern China. For example, relative to the present-day, TXx will increase by 1°C–5°C in northern China, and TX90p (WSDI) will increase by 25–150 (10–80) days in southern China at 1.5°C–5°C global warming. Compared to 2°C–5°C, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will help avoid about 36%–87% of the EHT increases in China.
Trích yếu
Cực đoan cực nóng là khí hậu biến hóa sở sinh ra tương đối nghiêm trọng hậu quả chi nhất, đặc biệt là đối với Trung Quốc như vậy một cái cực dễ bị khinh bỉ chờ ảnh hưởng dân cư đại quốc tới nói. Bổn nghiên cứu căn cứ vào mới nhất CMIP6 bắt chước kết quả, dự đánh giá ở toàn cầu tăng ấm đạt tới tương so với cách mạng công nghiệp phía trước (1861–1900) 1.5°C–5°C tình cảnh hạ, Trung Quốc tương lai cực đoan cực nóng biến hóa. Kết quả cho thấy, ở ba loại bài tận tình cảnh hạ (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 cùng SSP5-8.5), toàn cầu bình quân nhiệt độ không khí đem phân biệt ở 2030 năm cùng 2050 năm phía trước bay lên đến cách mạng công nghiệp trước 1.5℃ cùng 2℃ trình độ. Trong đó,SSP5-8.5 tình cảnh hạ thăng ôn tốc độ càng mau. Ở SSP5-8.5 tình cảnh hạ, toàn cầu biến ấm ở 2100 năm đem vượt qua 5℃; mà ở SSP1-2.6 tình cảnh hạ, toàn cầu biến ấm ở 2050 năm sau đem ổn định ở 2℃ tả hữu. Đối với Trung Quốc tới nói, ước có 50%–70% khu vực thăng ôn đem vượt qua toàn cầu bình quân trình độ, trong đó đại bộ phận ở vào Tây Tạng cùng phương bắc khu vực ( Tây Bắc, Hoa Bắc cùng Đông Bắc ). Đồng thời, ước có 1.9–4.4 trăm triệu người ( chiếm cả nước dân cư 16%–41%) đem gặp phải cao hơn toàn cầu bình quân trình độ tăng ấm. Mà cùng hiện đại kỳ (1995– 2014 năm ) so sánh với, phương bắc khu vực nhất trời ấm áp tăng phúc đem lớn hơn nữa, mà phương nam khu vực ấm ngày ngày số cùng liên tục ấm kỳ chỉ số tăng phúc đem lớn hơn nữa. Tỷ như, tương đối với hiện đại kỳ, đương toàn cầu biến ấm đạt tới 1.5℃–5℃ khi, phương bắc khu vực nhất trời ấm áp đem bay lên 1℃–5℃, mà phương nam khu vực ấm ngày ngày số cùng liên tục ấm kỳ chỉ số mỗi năm đem phân biệt gia tăng 25–150 thiên cùng 10–80 thiên. Cùng 2℃–5℃ ôn tiền thưởng bình so sánh với, khống chế toàn cầu tăng ấm ở 1.5℃, quân lệnh Trung Quốc cực đoan cực nóng sự kiện tăng phúc giảm bớt 36%–87%.
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Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0603804), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41831174 and 41430528), and the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX19_1026). Guwei ZHANG was supported by the China Scholarship Council (NO. 201908320503). We acknowledge the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology for their support of this work. We sincerely thank the editors and reviewers for their constructive critique and positive review.
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• About 0.19–0.44 billion people in China will experience warming higher than the global level.
• TX90p and WSDI will increase most profoundly in southern China, while TXx will increase most notably in northern China.
• Compared to 2°C–5°C, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will help avoid about 36%–87% of the EHT increases in China.
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Zhang, G., Zeng, G., Yang, X.et al.Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5°C–5°C Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations. Adv. Atmos. Sci.38,253–267 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0182-8
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DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0182-8