What will Modi's third term in India bring?

Editor's note:Duygu Cagla Bayram, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is an Ankara-based India specialist. She has a PhD in international relations and is the author of "New Course in Turbulent Waters: The Indo-Pacific Narrative and India." The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As the elections came to an end in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured his third term. While the lower-than-expected voter turnout triggered anxiety within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and prompted its candidates to further harden the party's Hindu nationalist rhetoric, the BJP's Hindutva ideology has not resonated across the country, especially in the south. In most states, campaigns were dominated by local political and economic concerns, such as youth unemployment and inflation.

But the idea of reorganizing India as a strong Hindu state is one of the strongest reasons for Modi's popularity among his followers. The third Modi term will continue the pressure on the country's secular credentials as the government pursues its Hindu nationalist agenda, eroding the divide between state and religion in an effort to transform India into a Hindu Nation.

What's next in terms of foreign policy and India's place in the world?

Whoever forms the government in India, there is a high degree of policy continuity. Rather than looking at the policies of the right-wing BJP or left-wing Congress, the key point to consider is the strength of the mandate. In the foreign policy context, all major political parties of India have a consistent commitment to maintaining "strategic autonomy," which entails maintaining ties with all major poles of influence in the international system.

But campaigning on his role as a defender of the majority of Hindus, his record of elevating India's global standing, and his ability to govern one of the world's fastest-growing economies, Modi and the BJP favor an assertive and muscular foreign policy that integrates with the country's civilizational identity. So far most of this has been naive and rhetorical, like referring to India as "Bharat."

India has recently sought to play a constructive role in the international system, from naval deployments in the Indian Ocean to protect commercial shipping from attacks to offering Indian-style ways to address global issues during its G20 presidency. But there is a risk that India may seek some exemption from global norms/rules due to its self-perceived exceptional status. This will sometimes increase stress in India's interactions with the West. But at the same time, with the frame of global geopolitical developments, India will continue to enjoy international goodwill, as the Western world continues to seek both a democratic balance and a commercial alternative to China.

India's efforts to maintain partnerships with both the U.S. and Russia without becoming allies, which are strict constants of its foreign policy, will also continue. While the U.S. is India's vital economic partner, provider of critical technologies and a base for the influential and wealthy segment of the Indian diaspora, Russia remains a vital arms provider, an important partner in nuclear energy and an indispensable balancer against the U.S. in the context of maintaining the viability of India's strategic autonomy.

India is a country that theoretically tries to maintain moderation in foreign policy; a country that wants to remain in a middle position between the poles of influence in the system. However, in practice, it is a country that tries to use one against the other; a country that wants to balance China with the West, the U.S. with Russia, and Pakistan and Turkey with Greece-Armenia-Israel and even the United Arab Emirates-Saudi Arabia.

For example, India, which has openly expressed its desire to develop strategic closeness with Armenia in South Caucasus and Greece in the Mediterranean, has been making strategic calculations in a region that will face Turkish hegemony, by cooperating in bilateral and multilateral arrangements in the India-Armenia-Iran and India-Armenia-Greece-France formats.

In March 2021, India's Ambassador to Iran, Gaddam Dharmendra announced India's intention to establish an International North-South Transport Corridor by connecting the Indian Ocean to Europe and Russia via Iran's Chabahar port and Armenia. The main geopolitical goal behind India's geostrategic ambition is to bypass its rival Pakistan.

As a last word, it would be useful to say the following as a sincere suggestion: India should develop a strategy taking into account that Turkey is leading the geopolitics of the region, and should give up its habit of personalizing Ankara's interactions with Pakistan or any other country with which it has problems. If India were to quit its futile efforts in using one country against the other, it would help India foster its political trust and create a more solid win-win platform in the region.

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