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Jobs and Technology: East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2024
Jobs and Technology
East Asia and the Pacific, seen in the context of the world economy, stands out as a paragon of development. The region continues to grow relatively fast, and the benefits are widely shared. But the region also faces challenges. How are global tensions shaping trade and investment? How will increasing global uncertainty impact countries in the region? How are new technologies like robots, AI and digital platforms affecting jobs and wages? What can be done to ameliorate disruptions for workers?
Developing East Asia and the Pacific is growing at 4.8% in 2024, faster than the rest of the world but slower than before the pandemic. Growth in China is dampened by property market weakness and low consumer and investor confidence. Growth in the rest of the region benefits from increasing domestic consumption, recovering goods exports, and a tourism rebound.
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The Economic Update highlights four factors that are likely to affect regional growth: shifting trade and investment, slowing growth in China, increased public and private debt, and increasing global policy uncertainty.
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Regional growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2025. China is forecast to grow more slowly than the rest of the region, due to internal and external challenges. The likely recovery of global trade and the expected easing of global financial conditions are expected to support growth in the other countries of the region.
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East Asia and Pacific countries have successfully created stable employment for its people. But industrial robots, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital platforms are affecting labor markets in the region. On the one hand, the adoption of robots creates jobs for skilled formal workers. On the other hand, it displaces low-skilled formal workers. Policy must help equip people with the skills and mobility to take advantage of the new technologies.
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Policy Issues examined in recent economic updates
Previous updateshave focused on a number of other policy issues, including:
(1)Vaccinationto contain COVID-19;
(2)fiscal policyfor relief, recovery, and growth;
(3)climate policyto build back better;
(4)smart containmentof COVID-19, especially through non-pharmaceutical interventions like testing-tracing-isolation;
(5)smart schoolingto prevent long-term losses of human capital, especially for the poor;
(6)social protectionto help households smooth consumption and workers reintegrate as countries recover;
(7)support for firmsto prevent bankruptcies and unemployment, without unduly inhibiting the efficient reallocation of workers and resources;
(8)financial sector policiesto support relief and recovery without undermining financial stability;
(9)trade reform,especially of still-protected services sectors—finance, transport, communications—to enhance firm productivity, avert pressures to protect other sectors, and equip people to take advantage of the digital opportunities whose emergence the pandemic is accelerating;
(10) creatingopportunities for firmsandensuring inclusionto promote equitable growth;
(11) policies to encouragetechnology diffusion and adoption;and
(12) policies to address new and olddistortions in the areas of food, fuel and finance.
(13) Policies to face up to the majorchallenges of de-globalization, aging and climate change
(14) Policies to harness thepotential of servicesto drive economy-wide growth and job creation
(15) Policies to support firmsleverage new technologies and help spur EAP firms productivityso they can catch up with global leaders.